Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 7

Week 7 wreaks the first major havoc on fantasy rosters in 2023 with six teams on bye. The situation is dire at tight end. But even definitive No. 2 running backs like Tyler Allgeier, Kareem Hunt and AJ Dillon may belong in your undermanned lineups this week. Who should you start for your resting star players? Read my Start and Sit column for Week 7 to find out.

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end, and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 7

Quarterbacks

5. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at PHI

32.9-303-1.91-0.79 and 2.0-4-0.06 = 18.9

6. Lamar Jackson, BLT vs. DET

30.1-216-1.23-0.63 and 7.4-40-0.36 = 18.5

7. Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. SF

37.4-267-1.95-0.67 and 1.4-3-0.08 = 18.0

A 49ers matchup may look scary on paper. But you could have said the same for matchups with the Eagles and Chiefs that Kirk Cousins overcame with 648 yards and six touchdowns. In recent seasons, Cousins’ best fantasy assets have been multi-score deficits and a home dome stadium where he has averaged 1.4 more fantasy points than on the road in his Vikings career. And Cousins seems poised for both benefits in Week 7. Don’t overthink it.

8. Russell Wilson, DEN vs. GB

31.3-224-1.57-0.66 and 2.9-20-0.08 = 16.4

Russell Wilson’s bump from ninth in my Week 6 quarterback rankings to eighth this week may say more about the six quarterbacks on bye than it does Wilson’s fantasy prospects. But the veteran is back in the top five with 12 passing touchdowns and with a 3.46 expected touchdown surplus. And given his lengthy history on that latter leaderboard, I am buying Wilson as a classic case of positive touchdown regression. Start him in fantasy unless Sean Payton benches him in real life.

9. Trevor Lawrence, JAX at NO

35.7-244-1.36-0.68 and 3.1-14-0.09 = 15.7

Even before his two-touchdown rebound in Week 6, I wasn’t worried about Trevor Lawrence’s slow fantasy start to 2023. The third-year pro has yielded four close-in rushing touchdowns and three explosive rushing touchdowns to his running backs Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby this season and suffers a top five total of 1.14 net stolen touchdowns. Lawrence should finish a higher rate of his team’s touchdown drives himself the rest of the season and revert to his previous QB1 standard. That said, I am worried about Lawrence’s knee injury with the short turnaround for a Thursday in New Orleans. Make sure Lawrence is active before you start him.

10. Matthew Stafford, LA vs. PIT

36.2-268-1.46-0.87 and 1.4-5-0.07 = 15.7

Matthew Stafford has yielded six Kyren Williams rushing touchdowns from inside the 7-yard line and joins Trevor Lawrence as a top five net stolen touchdown sufferer (1.15). Williams’ injury and Cooper Kupp’s return should only skew the Rams’ red zone touches toward the pass. But even if they hadn’t, Stafford would be a candidate for positive fantasy regression with his top 12 total of 28 red zone pass attempts. 

11. Sam Howell, WAS at NYG

34.1-239-1.43-0.96 and 3.2-18-0.08 = 15.6

Sam Howell may owe his current top-15 fantasy point total to his top five total of 214 pass attempts. But the fifth-round sophomore also ranks in the upper half of quarterbacks with his 25 red zone pass attempts and with a 15% carry share. Howell checks enough boxes to make him a QB1 spot start without a top-tier quarterback tool.

12. Geno Smith, SEA vs. ARZ

33.4-242-1.50-0.67 and 2.3-10-0.03 = 15.6

I believe Geno Smith is more likely to continue his stolen touchdown losses (0.45 net stolen) than either Trevor Lawrence (1.14) or Matthew Stafford (1.15). Kenneth Walker looks like a top tier running back talent with his career 19.0% broken tackle and 7.1% explosive run rates, 13th and fifth best among backs with 150 or more carries since 2022. And Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll has a bit of a reputation. But Smith has still doubled his total of red zone pass attempts from 16 from his first five games of 2022 to 32 in his first five games in 2023. And he has somehow thrown four fewer touchdowns. That luck has to improve, and I expect it to spur Smith’s QB1 renaissance starting this week.

13. Brock Purdy, SF at MIN

27.4-230-1.45-0.38 and 1.7-3-0.14 = 15.4

Brock Purdy’s modest Week 6 fantasy performance doesn’t itself move the needle for me. The Browns have lapped the other 31 defenses in pass defense DVOA so far this season. And I wouldn’t mind starting Purdy in Week 7, even if I rank him a spot below my QB1 tier. But I will feel dramatically more pessimistic if Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel miss this week with their injuries. Check in on the 49ers inactives before you finalize your fantasy lineups, though it being a Monday game could throw a wrench into that.

14. Jared Goff, DET at BLT

34.0-265-1.26-0.51 and 1.4-2-0.09 = 15.4

Jared Goff took a step in convincing me he’s an every-week start with his 353-yard, two-touchdown performance in Tampa Bay last Sunday. But Goff has averaged 6.6 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road since he joined the Lions in 2022, by far the most extreme split among current starters. And both of three-touchdown games in 2022 and six of his seven three-touchdown games since 2021 have come at home. That tips the scales enough for me to label Goff as a sit in Baltimore this week.

15. Jordan Love, GB at DEN

32.5-220-1.50-1.01 and 2.9-17-0.13 = 15.3

It seems increasingly likely that Jordan Love owes a share of his six touchdowns from Weeks 1 and 2 to his matchups with the Bears’ and Falcons’ bottom 10 pass defenses by DVOA. But, hey, Love faces a Broncos defense in Week 7 that ranks dead last and allowed 70 points to the Dolphins less than a month ago. Meanwhile, Love is up to 12th at his position with a 16% carry share and tipped that versatility with 170 rushing attempts in three seasons at Utah State. He is likely closer to QB1 status than you expect.

16. Baker Mayfield, TB vs. ATL

34.0-229-1.39-0.75 and 3.1-8-0.03 = 14.3

17. Derek Carr, NO vs. JAX

35.9-240-1.40-0.75 and 1.4-3-0.02 = 14.1

18. Joshua Dobbs, ARZ at SEA

33.2-207-1.13-0.66 and 3.6-20-0.05 = 13.8

19. Tyrod Taylor, NYG vs. WAS

33.2-210-1.10-0.73 and 3.2-19-0.07 = 13.6

20. Jimmy Garoppolo, LV at CHI

30.5-231-1.37-1.04 and 2.0-3-0.09 = 13.5

21. Gardner Minshew, IND vs. CLV

36.9-247-1.22-0.92 and 2.1-2-0.06 = 13.5

Running Backs

12. Alexander Mattison, MIN vs. SF

13.9-54-0.42 and 4.2-2.9-18-0.15 = 12.1

13. Aaron Jones, GB at DEN

10.3-50-0.26 and 4.0-3.1-26-0.18 = 11.8

14. Jonathan Taylor, IND vs. CLV

12.7-58-0.43 and 3.0-2.3-17-0.07 = 11.6

15. Jahmyr Gibbs, DET at BLT

12.5-57-0.33 and 3.3-2.6-18-0.08 = 11.2

16. James Cook, BUF at NE

11.9-58-0.27 and 3.3-2.5-21-0.07 = 11.1

17. Rachaad White, TB vs. ATL

13.9-50-0.33 and 3.7-3.2-20-0.09 = 11.1

18. Jerome Ford, CLV at IND

13.1-55-0.42 and 2.5-1.9-13-0.08 = 10.7

19. Brian Robinson, WAS at NYG

13.6-54-0.42 and 2.0-1.6-12-0.07 = 10.3

20. Zack Moss, IND vs. CLV

10.9-52-0.35 and 2.6-2.1-15-0.07 = 10.3

21. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE vs. BUF

11.6-44-0.33 and 3.8-2.8-19-0.07 = 10.0

22. Jaylen Warren, PIT at LA

8.1-34-0.18 and 4.3-3.6-27-0.08 = 9.4

23. Najee Harris, PIT at LA

13.2-52-0.29 and 1.5-1.1-7-0.05 = 8.5

24. Roschon Johnson, CHI vs. LV

8.6-39-0.28 and 2.3-1.9-13-0.06 = 8.2

Assuming Roschon Johnson clears the concussion protocol this week, I expect him to take over the No. 1 Bears running back role from the injured Khalil Herbert. I am projecting Johnson for a 46.0% carry share that is tied for 27th among running backs in Week 7.

25. Ezekiel Elliott, NE vs. BUF

9.6-37-0.34 and 2.5-1.9-11-0.05 = 8.1

Ezekiel Elliott faded from what had looked like an increasingly even time share with a 38% versus a 65% snap share for Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 6. But Stevenson also suffered head and ankle injuries Sunday, and I think that makes Elliott a reasonable flex option for Week 7. I am projecting the former Cowboys star for a 37.0% carry share that is 36th at the position.

26. Tyler Allgeier, ATL at TB

11.5-45-0.31 and 1.4-1.0-7-0.03 = 7.7

Tyler Allgeier has ebbed and flowed in fantasy with the Falcons’ ability to build leads — or at least not fall behind by multiple scores. But on balance, the second-year back has a 42% carry share that just misses the top 30 at the position. And you may not have a better flex option with six teams on bye this week.

27. Gus Edwards, BLT vs. DET

12.4-51-0.34 and 0.6-0.4-3-0.01 = 7.7

Gus Edwards may have asserted a lead back role with a 62% versus 38% snap share advantage over his teammate Justice Hill in Week 6. But the duo has split the snap share lead two to two in the four games they have played together since J.K. Dobbins suffered his Week 1 Achilles injury. I’m scared enough by a potential Ravens riding of the hot hand to project Edwards for a modest 38.5% carry share that misses the top 30 at the position in Week 7.

28. Kareem Hunt, CLV at IND

8.9-35-0.26 and 2.1-1.7-12-0.05 = 7.4

Kareem Hunt made a major jump from 20% and 22% snap shares before the Browns’ Week 5 bye to a 37% snap share in Week 6. I am projecting the veteran for a normally modest 32.5% carry share this week. But that is enough to make him a flex starter in typical leagues with six teams on bye.

29. Javonte Williams, DEN vs. GB

9.5-40-0.21 and 2.2-1.7-10-0.05 = 7.3

Javonte Williams seemed healthy in Week 6 after a quad injury sidelined him the week before. But the relative veteran returned to what seems like more of a time share in Denver. He effectively split time with 10 touches and a 35% snap share versus 9 and 40% for Jaleel McLaughlin. And I am projecting Williams for a 41.5% carry share in Week 7 that ties him for 30th at the position and barely clears the fantasy start standard.

30. AJ Dillon, GB at DEN

9.5-35-0.32 and 1.7-1.2-9-0.03 = 7.1

With Aaron Jones poised to return from a multi-week hamstring injury, I am projecting AJ Dillon for a modest 38.5% carry share in Week 7, tied for just 34th at his position. But Dillon should offset some of his expected workload loss with better touchdown luck. He has a 2.19 expected touchdown shortfall that is eight highest at his position. And Dillon should have a strong chance to reverse that trend in Week 7 facing a Broncos defense that has allowed a league-leading 12 touchdowns to running backs this season. With six teams on bye, I would throw Dillon into your starting lineups.

31. Justice Hill, BLT vs. DET

7.5-32-0.26 and 2.1-1.8-9-0.04 = 6.8

With how the Ravens have rotated their backfield this season, Justice Hill seems as likely to replicate his 56% snap share from Week 5 as his 38% snap share from Week 6 in Week 7. But weighing 42 pounds less than his teammate Gus Edwards, I do not see Hill as likely to enjoy his current three-to-one touchdown advantage for the rest of the season. I would bench Hill in what could be a pass-friendlier gamescript than the Ravens usually experience facing the Lions in Week 7.

32. Latavius Murray, BUF at NE

7.7-33-0.32 and 1.5-1.2-8-0.03 = 6.8

Latavius Murray has been the major beneficiary of Josh Allen’s reserved 2023 carry and red zone carry shares. The veteran back is tied for fifth at his position with seven carries inside the 5-yard line this year. And he just made his first start of the season and doubled his previous season high with 12 carries on Sunday. I have him as a Week 7 sit, but you could start Murray in a bye-week pinch and what seems poised to be a run-positive gamescript in Boston.

33. Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN vs. GB

6.3-32-0.17 and 2.1-1.7-11-0.06 = 6.5

Broncos rookie Jaleel McLaughlin relegated veteran Samaje Perine to the bench with a 40% versus a 17% snap share in Week 6 and with nine versus two touches. But McLaughlin still played a clear second running back role behind incumbent starter Javonte Williams. I am projecting the rookie for a 33.5% carry share in Week 7, and that ranks a modest 38th at the position. I would continue to roster him for the talent he’s teased. But you likely have a better option at flex this week.

34. Zach Evans, LA vs. PIT

8.7-35-0.24 and 1.2-0.9-7-0.03 = 6.3

The presumed temporary No. 1 Rams running back Zach Evans misses a Week 7 start designation because my projection system regresses projected carry and target totals for players who have never actually seen those rates. I wouldn’t try to talk you out of an Evans start over a back like Kareem Hunt or AJ Dillon. But I also don’t hate how the system handles this one. Head coach Sean McVay has yet to declare Evans his top back for Week 7. And after a flurry of roster moves, the Rams have the pieces for a potential timeshare in Royce Freeman, Myles Gaskin and Darrell Henderson. Roster Evans. But maybe don’t start him this week depending on your alternatives.

35. Jeff Wilson, MIA at PHI

7.5-34-0.24 and 1.4-0.9-7-0.03 = 6.2

Jeff Wilson may be most interesting initially from a fantasy perspective as a changer of Raheem Mostert’s value — and I dropped Mostert from third to eighth in my Week 7 running back rankings when I realized Wilson might play this week. But consider that Mostert and De’Von Achane have looked like the best backs in football in this offense. And even undrafted rookie Chris Brooks teased potential before he suffered an ankle injury last Sunday. I am projecting Wilson for a 28.5% carry share that ties him for 41st at the position this week. But I would definitely roster him and see how the Dolphins workload shakes out the next few weeks. Cleary the offense can support multiple fantasy-relevant backs.

36. Antonio Gibson, WAS at NYG

3.4-13-0.11 and 2.9-2.3-19-0.10 = 5.6

37. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI vs. MIA

6.0-25-0.20 and 1.7-1.3-9-0.04 = 5.4

38. Joshua Kelley, LAC at KC

6.9-26-0.21 and 1.3-0.9-6-0.02 = 5.0

39. Craig Reynolds, DET at BLT

7.4-30-0.19 and 0.6-0.5-4-0.01 = 4.8

40. Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB vs. ATL

6.8-23-0.18 and 1.4-1.0-6-0.03 = 4.7

41. D’Onta Foreman, CHI vs. LV

5.9-26-0.16 and 0.9-0.7-4-0.02 = 4.4

42. Jerick McKinnon, KC vs. LAC

1.4-6-0.04 and 2.7-2.0-17-0.15 = 4.4

43. Cam Akers, MIN vs. SF

5.0-19-0.15 and 1.4-1.1-8-0.03 = 4.3

44. Emari Demercado, ARZ at SEA

5.3-21-0.15 and 1.0-0.7-5-0.02 = 3.9

45. Keaontay Ingram, ARZ at SEA

6.2-20-0.16 and 0.9-0.7-4-0.02 = 3.9

46. Damien Williams, ARZ at SEA

5.3-22-0.14 and 0.9-0.7-5-0.02 = 3.9

47. Zach Charbonnet, SEA vs. ARZ

3.7-16-0.11 and 1.3-1.0-7-0.03 = 3.7

Wide Receivers

19. Drake London, ATL at TB

8.2-5.1-63-0.38 = 11.1

20. George Pickens, PIT at LA

7.5-4.3-69-0.30 = 11.1

21. Marquise Brown, ARZ at SEA

9.0-5.2-58-0.38 = 11.0

22. DeVonta Smith, PHI vs. MIA

7.9-5.1-64-0.33 = 10.9

23. Terry McLaurin, WAS at NYG

7.5-5.2-66-0.27 = 10.9

24. Chris Godwin, TB vs. ATL

7.6-5.5-62-0.29 = 10.7

25. Deebo Samuel, SF at MIN

5.7-3.5-49-0.23 = 10.6

26. Jakobi Meyers, LV at CHI

7.0-4.8-55-0.40 = 10.4

27. Christian Watson, GB at DEN

6.9-4.0-58-0.36 = 10.3

28. Amari Cooper, CLV at IND

7.1-4.2-62-0.33 = 10.3

29. Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. ARZ

6.7-4.6-55-0.38 = 10.1

30. Joshua Palmer, LAC at KC

7.7-4.7-57-0.33 = 10.0

Without wading too deep into the Quentin Johnston meme waters, I’ll just mention that Joshua Palmer has a 25% target share since Mike Williams suffered his ACL injury in Week 3 that is tied for 22nd among wide receivers — and that excludes the three targets Palmer lost to offensive penalties in Week 6. I am projecting Palmer for a 20.0% target share in Week 7 that ties him for 43rd among wide receivers and would start him in even shallow formats.

31. Jordan Addison, MIN vs. SF

7.0-4.5-57-0.34 = 10.0

Jordan Addison may not have seen the target share bump I expected with Justin Jefferson sidelined in Week 6. But the rookie did catch his fourth touchdown in just six games this season. And Addison has supported that total with seven end zone targets, tied for the most among wide receivers with Courtland Sutton and Tyler Lockett.

32. Gabe Davis, BUF at NE

5.8-3.6-58-0.39 = 10.0

Let me just copy and paste this from previous weeks … I continue to project Gabe Davis for the highest yards and touchdowns per catch among wide receivers. But I am projecting him for a 17.0% target share that ranks just 51st at the position. He’s as boom or bust as they come.

33. Michael Thomas, NO vs. JAX

7.7-5.1-55-0.30 = 9.9

Michael Thomas continued his streak of now six games with between 6 and 9 targets and no touchdowns last Sunday. And I swear, if he defies his 2.41 expected touchdown shortfall 13 or 14 more times this season, I will give up on my consistent WR3 ranking for him.

34. Diontae Johnson, PIT at LA

8.0-4.8-53-0.30 = 9.6

Second-year receiver George Pickens had made a leap from a 15% rookie target share to a 25% share this season that ties him for 20th among wide receivers. I’m skeptical Diontae Johnson returns to his pre-injury target volume. But Johnson’s 24.5% projected target share lands him 22nd at the position and is plenty high to start him at flex this week.

35. Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. GB

6.7-4.3-52-0.37 = 9.6

Courtland Sutton and his teammate Jerry Jeudy have caught almost identical totals of 21 and 20 passes for 243 and 222 receiving yards since the latter returned from his preseason hamstring injury in Week 2. Sutton has been the better fantasy scorer because of a three-to-one touchdown advantage. And I expect that to continue and break the tie in my fantasy rankings. Sutton suffered a 4.19 expected touchdown shortfall in 2022 that was the biggest at his position and suggested a 2023 bounce back. And he ranks top 10 among receivers with eight red zone targets this season.

36. Jerry Jeudy, DEN vs. GB

6.6-4.5-57-0.25 = 9.4

Jerry Jeudy may not match his 6-foot-4 teammate Courtland Sutton for touchdown potential. But the Alabama product has 0.77 expected touchdowns and is 1 of just 20 wide receivers with two targets inside the 5-yard line since his Week 2 return. Jeudy is due for some better touchdown luck and remains a flex starter.

37. K.J. Osborn, MIN vs. SF

6.8-4.1-49-0.28 = 8.7

K.J. Osborn was playing 90%-plus snap shares before Justin Jefferson suffered his injury, so I don’t know if the former’s five-target Week 6 moves the needle. But with just Osborn and Jordan Addison atop an extremely thin wide receiver depth chart, I suspect my 19.5% projected target share is more likely to be too pessimistic than too optimistic. I would flex Osborn with confidence despite a difficult 49ers matchup in Week 7.

38. Josh Downs, IND vs. CLV

6.6-4.4-46-0.27 = 8.4

Josh Downs’ 19% target share ties him for 45th among wide receivers this season. That wasn’t enough to make him a clear flex starter with a dual threat quarterback in Anthony Richardson. But I am projecting Gardner Minshew for a top five total of 36.9 pass attempts this week, and that 4-6 pass increase from Richardson pushes Downs into flex territory.

39. Curtis Samuel, WAS at NYG

4.9-3.8-41-0.24 = 8.2

Jahan Dotson hasn’t taken the step forward that I and many analysts expected in his sophomore season. But that has opened the door for a different second Commanders fantasy receiver, Curtis Samuel. The veteran has matched his teammate with a 16% target share this season. But Samuel has added his typical 20 yards and a touchdown rushing in the first month and half this season, and that makes the flex difference for him.

40. Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG vs. WAS

6.3-4.9-43-0.22 = 8.2

The Giants may mercifully have sorted out their murky receiver depth chart Sunday night, effectively benching Parris Campbell and Sterling Shepard and bumping Wan’Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt up to 60% and 73% snap shares. The former top-50 draft pick may still not have an appealing fantasy situation with a typical backup in Tyrod Taylor as his temporary starting quarterback. But Robinson has threatened the top 40 at his position with a 20% target share since his return from his 2022 ACL injury. And I expect he can PPR his way to flex starter value.

41. Kendrick Bourne, NE vs. BUF

5.5-3.6-43-0.23 = 7.8

Kendrick Bourne has enjoyed a couple of outlier 11-target weeks when teammates DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Demario Douglas have missed time in Weeks 1 and 6. But I keep expecting the Patriots to realize Bourne is their best receiver independent of the various injuries. The veteran has averaged 4.6 yards after the catch since 2022, tied for 20th best among wide receivers with 50 or more catches. I’m not exceedingly bullish with a 16.5% projected target share with a presumably healthy Patriots receiver room in Week 7. But that does tie Bourne for 51st among receivers and makes him a flex option.

42. Rashee Rice, KC vs. LAC

4.9-3.4-42-0.29 = 7.6

Chiefs rookie Rashee Rice has crawled his way up from a 31% snap share in Week 1 to a 49% share in Week 6. That alone wouldn’t make him a Week 7 starter. But Rice also has seven red zone targets, tied for sixth most among wide receivers. And with six teams on bye and teammate Justin Watson unlikely to play after a dislocated elbow in Week 6, I would roll the dice on Rice’s touchdown potential. He’s my final wide receiver flex start.

43. Kadarius Toney, KC vs. LAC

5.2-3.6-31-0.23 = 7.0

A lot of what I said about Rashee Rice applies to Kadarius Toney. But the latter’s extensive injury history makes it difficult to project a major target jump just because Justin Watson is sidelined. I am projecting Toney for a 14.5% target share that ties him for 61st among wide receivers this week. He has a better chance than most of his projected target share peers to score. But Toney still falls on the wrong side of my start/sit designation.

44. Elijah Moore, CLV at IND

6.2-3.6-38-0.18 = 7.0

Elijah Moore’s projected 21.5% target share lands him in the top 40 at the position and would make him a flex starter if Deshaun Watson were to play. But assuming Watson sits again for his mysterious ailment, then I am projecting his replacement PJ Walker for just 30.2 pass attempts, third fewest among expected Week 7 starters. And that relegates Moore to fantasy benches.

45. Romeo Doubs, GB at DEN

5.5-3.3-36-0.27 = 6.8

Never mind a flex starter, Romeo Doubs looked like a WR2 with 224 yards and three touchdowns in the first month of the season. But the sophomore receiver enjoyed that productivity with top Packers receivers Christian Watson and Aaron Jones limited to a combined about one and half games worth of snaps. With everyone poised to play in Week 7, I am projecting Doubs for a 17.5% target share that ties him for just 49th among receivers. I wouldn’t talk you out of a matchup play against the dreadful Broncos pass defense. But I rank Doubs as a Week 7 sit.

46. Darius Slayton, NYG vs. WAS

5.2-3.0-43-0.15 = 6.8

47. Jahan Dotson, WAS at NYG

5.6-3.2-36-0.26 = 6.8

48. Tutu Atwell, LA vs. PIT

4.7-2.8-35-0.18 = 6.8

49. Rashid Shaheed, NO vs. JAX

3.9-2.5-39-0.17 = 6.6

50. Darnell Mooney, CHI vs. LV

4.7-2.8-37-0.19 = 6.3

51. Rondale Moore, ARZ at SEA

4.3-2.9-28-0.13 = 6.3

52. Josh Reynolds, DET at BLT

3.7-2.5-37-0.21 = 6.2

53. Jayden Reed, GB at DEN

4.5-2.5-33-0.22 = 5.9

54. Michael Wilson, ARZ at SEA

3.4-2.4-36-0.16 = 5.7

55. Odell Beckham, BLT vs. DET

4.1-2.5-31-0.19 = 5.5

56. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA vs. ARZ

4.4-2.8-28-0.18 = 5.3

Tight Ends

6. Cole Kmet, CHI vs. LV

6.3-4.7-48-0.41 = 9.6

7. Darren Waller, NYG vs. WAS

7.0-4.7-51-0.28 = 9.1

8. George Kittle, SF at MIN

4.8-3.4-42-0.32 = 7.9

9. Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. MIA

5.6-4.1-44-0.22 = 7.9

10. Kyle Pitts, ATL at TB

6.2-3.6-43-0.25 = 7.6

Kyle Pitts is in my projected top three tight ends in yards per reception, and his recent target boom has jumped him to a 19% target share that ties him for eighth at the position with Cole Kmet. You pretty much have to start him with six teams on bye this week. And he’s probably due for another 2-for-21 letdown.

11. Zach Ertz, ARZ at SEA

5.6-3.5-29-0.28 = 6.4

Zach Ertz’ bump from 12th in my Week 6 tight end rankings to 11th this week says more about the six teams on bye than it does Ertz’s fantasy prospects. The veteran tight end slipped from his typical 70%-plus snap share from the first five weeks to a season-low 46% share in Week 6 that trailed his second-year teammate Trey McBride’s 58% share. You probably can’t find a better option than Ertz on the waiver wire this week. But his fantasy starter status is tenuous.

12. David Njoku, CLV at IND

4.4-3.4-34-0.20 = 6.3

David Njoku played an 83% snap share in Week 6 that was his second highest of the season. I guess his facial burns are a non-issue for his fantasy prospects? Still, I wouldn’t call Njoku a slum-dunk fantasy starter. His 13% target share ties him for just 20th among tight ends this season, and Njoku is scoreless and has never caught more than four touchdowns in six previous professional seasons.

13. Tyler Higbee, LA vs. PIT

5.0-3.3-33-0.19 = 6.1

He has maintained his typical 90%-plus snap share. But Tyler Higbee has fallen precipitously from a 16% target share the first four weeks to an 11% share the last two weeks with Cooper Kupp back in the lineup. Higbee’s proximity to TE1 status says much more about the six teams on bye than it does his fantasy prospects.

14. Luke Musgrave, GB at DEN

4.3-3.2-31-0.21 = 6.0

Luke Musgrave teased some atypical rookie tight end fantasy potential with 5.5 targets in his first four fully healthy games. But Musgrave enjoyed much of that volume with both Aaron Jones and Christian Watson on the sidelines. With a healthy Packers receiver room in Week 7, I am projecting Musgrave for a modest 15.5% target share that ties him for 13th at the position.

15. Taysom Hill, NO vs. JAX

2.6-1.9-16-0.12 = 5.7

When Juwan Johnson was ruled out for Week 6, I assumed traditional backup Foster Moreau would be the major beneficiary. And Moreau did deliver in about the best way you could hope for from a temporary TE2/3 with season highs of four catches and 33 yards. But quarterback-turned-running-back-labeled-tight-end Taysom Hill was the sneaky bigger beneficiary with seven catches and 49 yards on a season-high 60% snap share. And while he has faded from the nine carries he saw after a Derek Carr injury in Week 2, Hill remains a threat to run in a touchdown. As such, I see Hill as a top-end TE2 this week with Johnson out again. And Hill may even look the part with more catches than carries for a change.

16. Gerald Everett, LAC at KC

4.0-3.0-28-0.22 = 5.6

Gerald Everett played a season-high 74% snap share in Week 6 and saw five targets for just the second time in five games this season. Perhaps he is seeing a volume bump with Mike Williams injured, after all? I am projecting the veteran tight end for a 10.5% target share that ties him for 27th among tight ends in Week 7. And Everett seems more likely to score a touchdown than most of his projected target share peers with a top five fantasy quarterback in Justin Herbert throwing him his passes.

17. Logan Thomas, WAS at NYG

4.1-2.9-28-0.23 = 5.6

Bookended by modest three- and one-target games, Logan Thomas’s 11-target Week 5 looks like a major outlier. I am projecting the veteran tight end for 13.0% target share that barely cracks the top 20 at his position this week. Leave him on your fantasy benches.

18. Jonnu Smith, ATL at TB

3.8-2.9-31-0.17 = 5.5

19. Pat Freiermuth, PIT at LA

4.1-2.7-27-0.23 = 5.4

20. Dawson Knox, BUF at NE

3.9-2.6-25-0.25 = 5.2

21. Hunter Henry, NE vs. BUF

3.8-2.5-28-0.19 = 5.2

22. Dalton Kincaid, BUF at NE

3.6-2.8-25-0.19 = 5.1

23. Trey McBride, ARZ at SEA

3.5-2.6-27-0.13 = 4.9

24. Cade Otton, TB vs. ATL

3.7-2.6-24-0.18 = 4.8

25. Mike Gesicki, NE vs. BUF

3.5-2.4-25-0.17 = 4.7

26. Kylen Granson, IND vs. CLV

3.5-2.3-24-0.15 = 4.4

27. Noah Fant, SEA vs. ARZ

2.7-2.1-24-0.13 = 4.3

28. Foster Moreau, NO vs. JAX

2.6-1.8-20-0.13 = 3.7

29. Michael Mayer, LV at CHI

2.4-1.7-19-0.13 = 3.6