Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 1

The Cooper Kupp and Travis Kelce injuries might stick you with some tricky fantasy football start/sit decisions much earlier than you expected this season. But I am here to help. This year’s start/sit column leans on my comprehensive weekly fantasy projections and should help you with whatever player versus player calls you need to make for your leagues. Best of luck in Week 1 and in all of 2023!

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end, and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 1

Quarterbacks

8. Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. TB

38.2-273-1.84-0.76 and 1.6-5-0.11 = 18.0 fantasy points

Kirk Cousins has averaged 1.2 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in his Vikings career, and I prefer him to Dak Prescott this week because of it.

9. Justin Fields, CHI vs. GB

25.1-182-1.18-0.78 and 7.4-52-0.29 = 17.3

If Justin Fields takes a real step forward this year, then he will likely pass more, run less, and slip a bit in fantasy. I projected him for a bit of a relative passing skew in Week 1. But while that drops him to ninth at the position, it doesn’t threaten his starter status in season-long leagues.

10. Dak Prescott, DAL at NYG

35.6-259-1.74-1.03 and 3.3-13-0.12 = 17.2

Dak Prescott Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Football Week 1 Start/Sit

Dak Prescott has averaged 3.0 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last five seasons. I would still start him in Week 1, but he could fall short of his average fantasy standard on the road in New York.

11. Anthony Richardson, IND vs. JAX

28.2-197-1.10-0.79 and 5.9-41-0.33 = 16.8

Anthony Richardson‘s 4.43-second 40 time, 126.7 speed score, 40.5-inch vertical jump, and 129-inch broad jump were all in the 99th percentile among quarterbacks. His inexperience and possible inaccuracy as a passer could limit his pass attempts as the Colts suffer shorter drives. But I’d risk the start in fantasy since Richardson could be a Cam Newton– or Josh Allen-like runner and red zone runner.

12. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at LAC

33.0-269-1.62-0.73 and 1.6-5-0.05 = 16.5

Tua Tagovailoa fell from a 69.7% completion percentage, 9.0 yards per attempt and a 19-3 touchdown-interception ratio in Weeks 1-12 to a 52.6% completion percentage, 7.6 yards per attempt and a 6-5 touchdown-interception in Weeks 13-18, healthy games only. Chances are decent that was small-sample noise and concussion fallout, and I would start him this week. But it’s also possible the 49ers found a way to keep him out of the middle of the field and provided a blueprint that other teams can follow. His QB1 status is somewhat tenuous.

13. Daniel Jones, NYG vs. DAL

31.3-214-1.06-0.47 and 5.8-32-0.24 = 16.5

Daniel Jones nearly doubled his previous career high scramble and designed run totals to 54 and 66 in 2022. Brian Daboll used Josh Allen similarly, and I think that mitigates the regression one would expect Jones to suffer after a fourth-year fantasy breakout. He lost my tie-breaker to Tagovailoa, but feel free to start him.

14. Geno Smith, SEA vs. LA

32.8-243-1.57-0.66 and 2.8-15-0.05 = 16.5

Geno Smith is the third of a trio of passers tied for 12th in projected fantasy points this week. And like with Daniel Jones, I am less concerned for his potential regression. Smith’s 82.5% adjusted accuracy percentage led regular quarterbacks in 2022 per Reception Perception. He is a capable passer with a top tier skill group.

15. Matthew Stafford, LA at SEA

35.8-265-1.72-0.93 and 1.4-2-0.09 = 16.3

Matthew Stafford Los Angeles Rams Fantasy Football Week 1 Start/Sit

Matthew Stafford averaged 20.4 fantasy points per game and ranked 11th among quarterbacks as recently as 2021. I’m optimistic he can return to that form, but I would prefer to wait to start him until he and Cooper Kupp returned and demonstrated their health.

16. Aaron Rodgers, NYJ vs. BUF

34.2-242-1.71-0.65 and 1.4-4-0.08 = 16.1

It may be obvious if Aaron Rodgers is reinvigorated by his new team and teammates. But I want to keep a close eye on his red zone tendencies this weekend as a barometer of his fantasy bounce-back potential. Rodgers threw 30 and 27 pass attempts on plays that started inside the 5-yard line in his 2020 and 2021 MVP seasons. And he threw just 14, 17 and 21 passes from inside the 5-yard line in 2018, 2019 and 2022. I suspect some of his fantasy ebbs and flows are by choice.

17. Russell Wilson, DEN vs. LV

31.8-233-1.43-0.64 and 3.2-16-0.10 = 15.9

18. Jared Goff, DET at KC

34.5-252-1.59-0.52 and 1.2-3-0.03 = 15.9

19. Jordan Love, GB at CHI

32.9-236-1.32-0.79 and 3.8-18-0.14 = 15.8

20. Deshaun Watson, CLV vs. CIN

30.0-219-1.35-0.78 and 5.1-25-0.12 = 15.8

Running Backs

20. Jamaal Williams, NO vs. TEN

14.4-59-0.58 and 1.7-1.3-9-0.04 = 11.1

21. Kenneth Walker, SEA vs. LA

13.0-59-0.43 and 2.4-1.8-12-0.04 = 10.9

22. David Montgomery, DET at KC

12.2-49-0.35 and 3.0-2.5-20-0.07 = 10.7

23. James Cook, BUF at NYJ

10.9-52-0.27 and 3.6-2.5-18-0.08 = 10.5

24. J.K. Dobbins, BLT vs. HST

13.3-66-0.36 and 1.6-1.2-8-0.04 = 10.5

25. Dalvin Cook, NYJ vs. BUF

12.2-54-0.42 and 2.3-1.7-12-0.06 = 10.3

I am projecting Dalvin Cook for a 45.5% carry share and Breece Hall for 40.0% in Week 1. Jets coach Robert Saleh told reporters the team would be smart with Hall in his return from an October-torn ACL.

26. D’Andre Swift, PHI at NE

9.0-43-0.31 and 3.6-2.6-20-0.12 = 10.2

The Eagles did not declare a No. 1 running back on their Week 1 depth chart. But D’Andre Swift is the safer fantasy choice with his receiving contributions. He has lapped his new teammate Rashaad Penny with a 15.3% versus a 5.3% target share the last three seasons.

27. Raheem Mostert, MIA at LAC

11.1-53-0.26 and 3.0-2.3-15-0.08 = 10.0

Raheem Mostert has always been startable when healthy. And with teammates Jeff Wilson on injured reserve and De’Von Achane just returned from a preseason shoulder injury, Mostert could start the year as a definitive lead back.

28. Alexander Mattison, MIN vs. TB

12.6-50-0.43 and 2.1-1.7-12-0.06 = 9.9

Alexander Mattison Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Football Week 1 Start/Sit

I am projecting Alexander Mattison for a 57.0% carry share and Ty Chandler for 31.5% in Week 1. Mattison played a bell-cow role in spot starts for Dalvin Cook the last two seasons, but I suspect his workload will change with the team now needing him for a full season of carries.

29. Khalil Herbert, CHI vs. GB

11.6-59-0.35 and 1.8-1.4-9-0.04 = 9.8

I am projecting Khalil Herbert for a 37.5% carry share, Justin Fields for 31.5%, Roschon Johnson for 15.5% and D’Onta Foreman for 13.5% in Week 1. Herbert took the bulk of the first-team reps in the preseason and earned a starting job with his top 10 broken tackle rate since 2021. But he may cap as a flex start with Fields as a running and red zone threat.

30. AJ Dillon, GB at CHI

10.5-44-0.37 and 2.7-2.0-15-0.06 = 9.5

AJ Dillon had an uneven 2022 season. But by the end, he had seven touchdowns and a 1.7 expected touchdown shortfall. He could set a new career touchdown high this season even without Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

31. Brian Robinson, WAS vs. ARZ

14.5-58-0.38 and 1.3-1.0-6-0.03 = 9.3

I am projecting the Commanders for 29.5 rushing attempts in Week 1, ninth most among teams. Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson might not stand out in their efficiency metrics, but both make a decent fantasy flex case based on their volume.

32. Antonio Gibson, WAS vs. ARZ

9.0-35-0.31 and 3.4-2.7-20-0.10 = 9.3

33. Jerick McKinnon, KC vs. DET

4.0-16-0.12 and 5.1-4.0-34-0.26 = 9.3

After the Week 8 Chiefs bye, Jerick McKinnon averaged 4.3 catches and 13.2 fantasy points per game, tied for fifth and 10th most among running backs. I don’t think anything has changed this offseason, and I would start McKinnon with confidence in Week 1.

34. Isiah Pacheco, KC vs. DET

10.7-52-0.34 and 1.8-1.4-11-0.04 = 9.2

Isiah Pacheco isn’t on the Chiefs’ Week 1 injury report and should start. I would play any Chiefs RB1 in fantasy. I just wonder if Pacheco’s hold of that job is more tenuous than the public believes. He faded from 2.8 yards after contact per attempt in the first half of 2022 to 2.0 yards after contact per attempt in the second half, and his seventh-round draft status could shorten his leash.

35. Breece Hall, NYJ vs. BUF

9.9-49-0.32 and 2.3-1.6-13-0.05 = 9.1

36. Javonte Williams, DEN vs. LV

10.1-44-0.29 and 2.4-1.8-12-0.07 = 8.7

I am projecting Javonte Williams for a 41.0% carry share, Samaje Perine for 37.5% and Jaleel McLaughlin for 3.0% in Week 1. I believe in Williams’ talent after he led backs with a 26.1% broken tackle rate in 2021. But he could ease into a full workload this season coming off an October torn ACL.

37. Samaje Perine, DEN vs. LV

9.2-39-0.24 and 2.9-2.2-16-0.10 = 8.6

I am projecting Samaje Perine for a 9.5% target share in Week 1 that is tied for 21st among running backs. That just may not mean as much for fantasy with Russell Wilson at quarterback as it did with Joe Burrow at quarterback.

38. Jaylen Warren, PIT vs. SF

7.5-34-0.20 and 2.8-2.2-16-0.06 = 7.6

Jaylen Warren Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Football Week 1 Start/Sit

I am projecting Najee Harris for a 57.5% carry share and Jaylen Warren for 27.5% in Week 1. I do not believe the preseason narrative that Warren could take Harris’ RB1 job, and I wouldn’t start him in fantasy unless he demonstrated that role reversal.

39. Ezekiel Elliott, NE vs. PHI

9.0-35-0.36 and 1.8-1.3-8-0.04 = 7.4

I am projecting Rhamondre Stevenson for a 52.0% carry share and Ezekiel Elliott for 32.5% in Week 1. The Patriots supported a pair of a fantasy-worthy backs in Stevenson and Damien Harris the last two seasons, and I am open to that this season even after Elliott’s efficiency decline the last few years. I would just rather see it before I started him.

40. Zack Moss, IND vs. JAX

9.1-41-0.27 and 1.2-0.9-6-0.03 = 7.0

I wouldn’t start any of Zack Moss, Deon Jackson or Evan Hull if I could avoid it this week. Colts coach Shane Steichen told reporters he would ride the hot hand at running back while Jonathan Taylor missed time. That lands them a trifecta of fantasy threats in a possible time share, a possibly inefficient offense with fewer red zone trips than other teams, and a running quarterback in Anthony Richardson who could steal their work and red zone work.

41. Elijah Mitchell, SF at PIT

9.3-42-0.28 and 0.7-0.5-4-0.02 = 6.6

42. Deon Jackson, IND vs. JAX

5.9-22-0.15 and 3.0-2.4-17-0.07 = 6.5

43. Chuba Hubbard, CAR at ATL

7.4-32-0.19 and 1.8-1.4-11-0.04 = 6.4

44. Devin Singletary, HST at BLT

6.9-31-0.20 and 1.9-1.4-10-0.05 = 6.3

45. Tyler Allgeier, ATL vs. CAR

7.7-37-0.22 and 1.2-1.0-7-0.03 = 6.3

46. De’Von Achane, MIA at LAC

6.4-28-0.19 and 1.7-1.3-10-0.05 = 5.9

47. Rashaad Penny, PHI at NE

7.4-41-0.20 and 0.5-0.4-2-0.01 = 5.7

48. Damien Harris, BUF at NYJ

5.9-26-0.20 and 1.6-1.2-8-0.04 = 5.5

49. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC vs. DET

5.6-25-0.17 and 1.6-1.2-9-0.06 = 5.3

50. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI at NE

4.6-21-0.16 and 2.0-1.5-12-0.05 = 5.3

51. Zach Charbonnet, SEA vs. LA

6.0-26-0.19 and 1.1-0.9-6-0.03 = 4.9

Wide Receivers

19. Drake London, ATL vs. CAR

8.4-5.2-63-0.36 = 11.1

20. Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. LA

7.1-5.0-63-0.37 = 11.0

21. Chris Godwin, TB at MIN

7.7-5.6-59-0.35 = 11.0

22. Christian Watson, GB at CHI

7.3-4.5-60-0.38 = 10.9

23. DeAndre Hopkins, TEN at NO

7.8-5.1-61-0.34 = 10.8

24. Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. LV

7.9-4.7-61-0.33 = 10.5

Assuming Jerry Jeudy misses Week 1 with his hamstring injury, I am projecting Courtland Sutton for a 27.0% target share that is tied for 16th among wide receivers. He could see short-term WR1 volume pending how quickly rookie Marvin Mims can make an impact.

25. Amari Cooper, CLV vs. CIN

7.0-4.3-59-0.40 = 10.4

Amari Cooper declined in fantasy when Deshaun Watson returned to the Browns. But the veteran receiver averaged almost identical 2.39 and 2.41 yards per route run in Weeks 1-12 and Weeks 13-18, respectively, and ranked top 20 among wideouts with 100 or more routes run in both time periods. Start him with confidence in Week 1.

26. Marquise Brown, ARZ at WAS

8.0-5.0-56-0.32 = 10.2

Marquise Brown had a 25.0% target share in 2022 when DeAndre Hopkins was sidelined, and it would have ranked him 21st among receivers over the full season. He won’t have Kyler Murray to start the year, but Brown seems likely to see too many targets to leave on fantasy benches.

27. Calvin Ridley, JAX at IND

8.2-5.0-55-0.33 = 10.0

After a promising preseason, I am projecting Calvin Ridley for a 28.5% target share and Christian Kirk for 20.5% in Week 1. The former would make Ridley a WR2, but my projections regress carry and target shares for players with limited playing time the last two seasons. Feel free to be more optimistic.

28. Christian Kirk, JAX at IND

7.1-4.5-56-0.33 = 10.0

Christian Kirk Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Football Week 1 Start/Sit

Trevor Lawrence may be good enough to support three receivers in fantasy. And while I would start Christian Kirk with that assumption this week, I would keep an eye on the team’s red zone target share. Kirk is undersized at 5-foot-11 and 200 pounds. And he could find himself benched by the end zone for the 6-foot-2 Zay Jones and fade from his career high of eight touchdowns in 2022.

29. Gabe Davis, BUF at NYJ

6.6-3.7-59-0.37 = 10.0

Gabe Davis disappointed in what many expected to be a breakout season in 2022. But the No. 2 Bills receiver remains explosive and has few obvious teammate threats at wide receiver with fifth-round sophomore Khalil Shakir struggling with drops and a rib injury this preseason.

30. Mike Evans, TB at MIN

6.7-4.1-58-0.35 = 9.9

Mike Evans loses Tom Brady at quarterback in 2023. But the veteran wideout has ranked top 15 at his position in end zone targets each of the last four seasons, and the first of those was with Jameis Winston at quarterback. Baker Mayfield will hurt his value, but Evans remains a Week 1 fantasy starter.

31. Brandin Cooks, DAL at NYG

7.3-4.6-56-0.30 = 9.9

Brandin Cooks saw an 87.1% on-target pass percentage that was 13th worst among receivers with 75 or more targets last season. He could enjoy a tremendous fantasy bump from Dak Prescott at quarterback.

32. Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. ARZ

6.4-4.0-58-0.27 = 9.6

I am projecting Jahan Dotson for a 22.5% target share and Terry McLaurin for 21.5% in Week 1 because of the latter’s turf toe injury. It is a risk, but I would likely flex McLaurin this week if he plays.

33. DJ Moore, CHI vs. GB

7.5-4.2-56-0.29 = 9.5

DJ Moore could make a major difference for Justin Fields and the Bears this season, but the move may not help him in fantasy. I am projecting Fields for 25.1 pass attempts in Week 1, the fewest among starting quarterbacks. Even with 32.0% projected target share that is the highest among wide receivers, Moore nets just 7.5 projected targets, tied for 22nd at the position.

34. Michael Pittman, IND vs. JAX

7.0-4.8-51-0.29 = 9.4

Michael Pittman faces a fantasy risk with a run-first rookie quarterback in Anthony Richardson. But it’s not like he enjoyed excellent quarterback play in 2022. With a washed Matt Ryan under center, Pittman saw 31 contested targets, third most at the position. I would trust the volume and start him at flex this week.

35. Brandon Aiyuk, SF at PIT

6.0-4.0-54-0.30 = 9.3

I am projecting Deebo Samuel for a 24.5% target share, Brandon Aiyuk for 21.5%, George Kittle for 20.0 share and Christian McCaffrey for 20.0% in Week 1. Aiyuk clears the Week 1 flex starter benchmark, but the 49ers may have one too many elite skill player mouths to feed for all of them to excel to their full potential in fantasy.

36. JuJu Smith-Schuster, NE vs. PHI

6.3-4.6-54-0.25 = 9.2

This will be a bad call if his knee explodes in Week 1. But I am projecting JuJu Smith-Schuster for a 19.5% target share in Week 1 that is tied for 38th among wide receivers. And Mac Jones and the Patriots passing offense seem likely to improve with a presumed offensive coordinator upgrade from Matt Patricia to Bill O’Brien.

37. George Pickens, PIT vs. SF

6.2-3.8-53-0.25 = 8.9

I have George Pickens as my last flex starter this week. I expect him to break out this season. But even after the Steelers traded Chase Claypool in 2022, Pickens saw a 15.6% second-half target share that ranked a modest 60th among regular wide receivers. He has the talent, but Pickens needs a major step forward to make this fantasy flex cutoff.

38. Van Jefferson, LA at SEA

6.5-3.7-52-0.29 = 8.8

I am projecting Van Jefferson for a 19.0% target share, Tutu Atwell for 17.5% and Puka Nacua for 14.5% in Week 1 with Cooper Kupp sidelined. I feel good about that order based on a report from Jourdan Rodrigue from The Athletic. I’m just not ready to make even Jefferson a Week 1 fantasy starter.

39. Jahan Dotson, WAS vs. ARZ

6.4-3.8-49-0.30 = 8.7

Jahan Dotson Washington Commanders Fantasy Football Week 1 Start/Sit

I am projecting Jahan Dotson for a 22.5% target share and Terry McLaurin for 21.5% in Week 1 because of the latter’s turf toe injury. That makes the former a near-fantasy-starter — and obvious one if McLaurin misses the game. But Dotson saw a 3.5 expected touchdown surplus that was seventh among receivers in 2022. If I had better options, I would prefer to bench him for a week and observe his role and chemistry with new quarterback Sam Howell.

40. Adam Thielen, CAR at ATL

6.3-4.2-46-0.32 = 8.6

Adam Thielen may be the de facto No. 1 receiver in Carolina with DJ Chark on the mend from a mid-August hamstring strain. But the Panthers may not produce a viable full-schedule fantasy receiver starter with a rookie quarterback in Bryce Young and an offensive line that struggled to keep Young vertical in the preseason.

41. Rondale Moore, ARZ at WAS

6.2-4.5-47-0.24 = 8.5

42. Michael Thomas, NO vs. TEN

6.2-3.9-44-0.27 = 8.0

43. Jakobi Meyers, LV at DEN

5.6-3.8-45-0.24 = 8.0

44. Zay Jones, JAX at IND

5.6-3.7-41-0.26 = 7.6

45. Nico Collins, HST at BLT

6.0-3.5-44-0.23 = 7.6

46. Allen Lazard, NYJ vs. BUF

5.1-3.2-41-0.28 = 7.5

47. K.J. Osborn, MIN vs. TB

5.3-3.4-40-0.27 = 7.4

48. Romeo Doubs, GB at CHI

5.9-3.7-41-0.23 = 7.4

49. Kadarius Toney, KC vs. DET

4.8-3.3-37-0.22 = 7.1

50. Tutu Atwell, LA at SEA

5.6-3.2-40-0.20 = 7.0

51. Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLV vs. CIN

4.7-3.0-41-0.20 = 6.9

Tight Ends

10. Dalton Schultz, HST at BLT

5.6-3.8-39-0.34 = 7.8

Dalton Schultz may be best known as a Dak Prescott target sponge. But the veteran tight end has also contributed 25 targets inside the 5-yard line and 10.8 expected touchdowns since 2021, fourth and fifth most among tight ends. He may be the de facto No. 1 receiver in Houston next to less experienced wide receivers like Nico Collins, Tank Dell and John Metchie. And I would start Schultz in fantasy in Week 1 even with a rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud.

11. Tyler Higbee, LA at SEA

6.1-4.1-39-0.29 = 7.7

Tyler Higbee averaged 7.2 targets, 4.9 catches and 43 yards with Matthew Stafford healthy in 2022 and just 5.4 targets, 3.5 catches and 29 yards with other quarterbacks. With Stafford back, Higbee should be back as a back-end TE1, and he may see an extra Week 1 target boost with Cooper Kupp sidelined.

12. Juwan Johnson, NO vs. TEN

5.3-3.5-40-0.31 = 7.6

Derek Carr told his brother David that he should draft Juwan Johnson in fantasy this season. What else do you need to know? With Alvin Kamara suspended, I am projecting Johnson for a 15.5% target share that is tied for 14th at his position.

13. David Njoku, CLV vs. CIN

4.7-3.3-37-0.27 = 7.0

David Njoku teased a tremendous touchdown potential with 10 red zone targets from Week 13 to the end of the season with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. That was three more than any other tight end in that time. Still, the veteran has never caught more than four touchdowns in any of his six professional seasons. If I had a better alternative, I would prefer to sit Njoku this week and see whether Watson plays closer to his 2018-20 standard.

14. Hunter Henry, NE vs. PHI

4.7-3.2-38-0.25 = 6.9

You likely won’t be surprised by Hunter Henry‘s sit recommendation. But you may be surprised by how close I have him to a starter. That’s because the veteran saw just seven red zone targets in 2022 but averaged 14.6 red zone targets over his previous five healthy seasons. Henry may be the No. 1 beneficiary of the Patriots’ swap of Matt Patricia to Bill O’Brien as their offensive playcaller.

15. Dawson Knox, BUF at NYJ

4.2-3.0-33-0.29 = 6.5

Dawson Knox Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Week 1 Start/Sit

Dawson Knox seems likely to lose more and more targets to Round 1 rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid as the season progresses, and I wouldn’t start either player before I saw their snap shares in Week 1 if I could avoid it. That said, I have more optimism for Knox than most. His 17 end zone targets and 9.8 expected touchdowns are tied for second most and sixth most among tight ends since 2021. He could threaten TE1 status with a modest 45 catches if at least eight of them are for touchdowns.