Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Running back fantasy football tiers are an important weapon in your arsenal. Instead of the rigid approach of fantasy football rankings, tiers allow you more flexibility on draft day, which is key to dominating your opponents. With a tier-based approach, you can see how each player stacks up at his respective position.
To help you out on this front, I broke down my 2020 running back fantasy football tiers. You can use these as they are, or you can move them around to create your own set of tiers.
QB Tiers | WR Tiers | TE Tiers
Tier 1 — Run CMC
Some years we don’t have a consensus at the top, but this isn’t one of them. It’s essentially McCaffrey and then everyone else in 2020. McCaffrey is coming off a historic year where he topped 1,000 yards in both the run game and as a receiver. Better yet, he’s now paired with new Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady who just made Clyde Edwards-Helaire look pretty darn good at LSU last year. McCaffrey is the slam dunk No. 1 pick in all formats.
Tier 2 — Elite RB1s
Saquon Barkley
Ezekiel Elliott
Alvin Kamara
Dalvin Cook
The real debate this year might be who comes in the No. 2 spot this year. Barkley is coming off a disappointing year due to his untimely ankle injury, but he’s still one of the most explosive players in the league and will be running behind what should be an improved offensive line. Elliott has arguably the highest floor in the tier and will benefit from the Cowboys’ potent offense. Kamara didn’t find the end zone as much last season as he did in 2018. All of that aside, he was just as good on a per carry basis and is very much a threat to lead this group. Cook now slides back into elite territory with the threat of a holdout averted. He led all backs last year with a massive 21 goal line carries.
Tier 3a — Solid RB1s
Derrick Henry
Joe Mixon
Nick Chubb
Josh Jacobs
There are still some very interesting names at the position if you don’t end up with a top-six pick this year. Henry showed last year that you don’t have to be involved in the passing game to be a PPR RB1. Mixon was fantastic down the stretch and should benefit from Joe Burrow under center. Like Henry, Chubb doesn’t do much in the passing game, but his healthy workload on the ground gives him a lot of appeal. Similarly, I don’t expect a lot of targets for Jacobs, but he’s a dark horse to lead the league in carries.
Tier 3b — Boom-or-bust RB1s
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Kenyan Drake
Aaron Jones
Austin Ekeler
Miles Sanders
The third tier really needed to be sub-divided, as this group isn’t quite the same as the Tier 3a backs. Here we have high-ceiling options who all come with some question marks. Drafting any one of these guys as your top back could end up being a league-winning move, but this group also has the highest bust potential of this year’s top options.
Damien Williams opting out of the 2020 season propels Edwards-Helaire up into the top 10 fantasy running backs. Drake has an enormous ceiling, but he’s also been wildly inconsistent over the course of his career. Jones popped off for 16 scores last year, but the Packers didn’t instill confidence when they drafted A.J. Dillon in Round 2 of April’s draft. Ekeler is now the guy with Melvin Gordon out of the way, but he’s undersize and won’t do much in the run game. Sanders finished 2019 with an impressive stretch over games over the final eight weeks, but there has been chatter that the Eagles could still bring in a veteran back to help share the workload.
Tier 4 — Unsexy RB2s with RB1 potential
Leonard Fournette
Todd Gurley
Chris Carson
Le'Veon Bell
David Johnson
Melvin Gordon
Perception is key in fantasy football, and right now the overall view of this bunch isn’t especially great among the drafting public. The alternative name for this group is the “I have to take a shower after drafting him” tier. But sexy doesn’t win fantasy championships and there’s good value to be had with these players in the third and fourth rounds.
Fournette is in the final year of his deal with the Jags and is going to get run into the ground. Gurley has no competition for touches in Atlanta. Carson being widely overlooked but should see another heavy workload in Seattle. Bell gets an improved offensive lined and should see a hefty workload even with Frank Gore in the building. Like Gurley, Johnson has minimal competition for touches in Houston. We can’t say the same for Gordon, but he remains a very talented three-down back in what should be an explosive offense.
Tier 5 — Unsexy RB2s Part II
James Conner
David Montgomery
Mark Ingram
If you get to this point in drafts and haven’t nabbed at least two running backs, you could be in store for a bumpy ride this season. Conner was a hero in 2018, but the Steelers back has shown that he can’t stay healthy. While Montgomery was heavily used on the ground last year, his value is capped with minimal work in the passing game. We saw an impressive season out of Ingram in 2019. That being said, it’ll be tough for him to keep up that efficiency and he should lose some work to rookie J.K. Dobbins in Baltimore.
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Tier 6a — Upside rookies
Jonathan Taylor
D'Andre Swift
Cam Akers
J.K. Dobbins
Antonio Gibson
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
Rounds 6 and 7 are the wheelhouse for rookie running backs this year. They may not all get there in your drafts, but it isn’t a bad idea to get your hand on one of these guys in that range. Swift figures to ultimately take over in the Detroit backfield. Akers will likely be the Rams early-down back right out of the gate. Dobbins will be behind Mark Ingram, but still will be involved in the run-heavy Ravens’ offense. Vaughn is the biggest dark horse of the group. He will likely enter 2020 behind Ronald Jones, but the Bucs took him in Round 3 for a reason.
Tier 6b — Questionable committees
Devin Singletary
Raheem Mostert
Kareem Hunt
Ronald Jones
Committees are no longer “dreaded” in fantasy football, but all of these guys are in committee situations that put their respective fantasy values in question. Singletary will share the workload with Zack Moss. Mostert has Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon in San Francisco. Hunt is primarily the passing down option in Cleveland. Jones will likely start out ahead of Vaughn, but that likely won't last much more than half a season.
Tier 7a — PPR specials
James White
Tarik Cohen
Matt Breida
Darrell Henderson
Boston Scott
Nyheim Hines
Chris Thompson
These guys do most of their damage in the passing game. While they certainly get a nice boost in PPR scoring, keep in mind that their limited volume makes all three much more volatile fantasy options.
Tier 7b — Buyer beware
Sony Michel
Jordan Howard
Kerryon Johnson
Tevin Coleman
Marlon Mack
Duke Johnson
Yikes. This tier is volatile. You have injury concerns with Michel. There are backs on the wrong side of committees in Coleman, Mack and both Johnsons. And Howard is a low-upside back who has redefined the word “meh” with his fantasy football production over the last few seasons.
Tier 7c — Premium handcuffs
Latavius Murray
Alexander Mattison
Tony Pollard
Phillip Lindsay
Handcuffing in today’s fantasy football really isn’t a viable strategy with the exception of a few very rare instances — like when a player is threatening to hold out for an entire year. In most instances, you’ll draft a handcuff only to cut that player in Week 3 or 4. However, this group of ‘cuffs have independent value in addition to their status as handcuffs.
Murray is the top of the tier given the fact that we saw him post top-five fantasy performances in both starts with Alvin Kamara sidelined last year. Dalvin Cook didn’t hold out, but Mattison still is in a prime position in the run-friendly Vikings offense. Pollard would be an instant top-10 back in Ezekiel Elliott went down with injury and showed that he can post 100-yard games even with Elliott on the field. Lindsay slides into the back end of this group as a proven commodity would be an RB2-plus if Melvin Gordon got hurt.
Tier 8a — Late-round darts
Justin Jackson/Joshua Kelley
Chase Edmonds
Zack Moss
Damien Harris
DeAndre Washington
Anthony McFarland
Darrynton Evans
Ryquell Armstead
AJ Dillon
Lamical Perine
Drafting running backs in the late rounds isn’t an optimal strategy in today’s fantasy football, but you might be able to snag some upside with the right players. This group contains the priority late-round targets.
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Tier 8b — Late-round handcuffs
Jamaal Williams
Giovani Bernard
Jerick McKinnon
Benny Snell
Malcolm Brown
There are also some additional handcuffs to toss into the mix in deeper leagues. In a season that could see players testing positive for COVID-19, it’s also a good idea to keep a running tab on the handcuffs around the entire league.
Tier 8b — Late-round avoids
Ito Smith
Adrian Peterson,
Rex Burkhead
Jalen Richard
Frank Gore
Rashaad Penny
Dion Lewis
These guys are going to be on the board in the late rounds, but there’s really no appeal to drafting them. The goal in the late rounds is to get as much bang for your buck as you can, and this group just doesn’t offer much in the way of upside.
Tier 9 — Watch list
Devonta Freeman
Darwin Thompson
Bryce Love
Eno Benjamin
Raymond Calais
JaMycal Hasty
