Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We continue along in our series ranking each position group in the NFL by looking at each team’s pass-catching units. With camp already opening for some teams, NFL rosters are mostly settled at this point, and we have a pretty good understanding of where each team stands on paper and we can take a legit accounting of where everyone is.
Check out our position group rankings: Offensive line | Defensive line
To develop the rankings, I considered my own film study, our data at FTN Data, and each team’s depth chart top to bottom. I weighed talent at wide receiver ahead of tight ends and rarely considered running backs as part of the group outside of the rare few who truly make a difference. I also considered how units fit together as a whole and whether teams utilize a variety of skill sets that ensures winning at all levels of the field.
For the purpose of the article here are some definitions to consider:
- Yards per route run: A player’s total receiving yards divided by total routes run.
- Playmaker score: A weighted composite score, normalized on a scale of 0-100, that quantifies a pass-catcher’s ability to make extraordinary plays relative to opportunity.
- Created reception: A catch that would not have been possible without an extraordinary effort made by the pass catcher.
- Forced missed tackle: When a pass-catcher causes a defender to miss a tackle after the catch.
Without further ado, here is my earnest attempt at ranking every NFL team’s pass-catchers.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs were a tough team to rank because they simply do not have the depth of other teams at the top of the list. The bottom line, though, is that Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are just so good and fit the offense so well that I just couldn’t settle on anyone ranking ahead of them. Their unique skill sets, ability to separate, and menacing skill after the catch allow the Chiefs offense to own the short, intermediate, and deep parts of the field with ease. Hill ranked second in the NFL in deep receptions (targets 20-plus yards downfield) with 13, while also forcing the sixth-most missed tackles after the catch among WRs with 16. Kelce also once again dominated after the catch racking up 14 forced missed tackles of his own.
Stat to know: Both Kelce (76.6) and Hill (75.6) ranked top-five in our new playmaker score stat.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are so loaded top to bottom that it’s kind of ridiculous. On top of having high-end playmakers in the fold like Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, both capable of elite level play, the team also has legit firepower in the form of Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown. To round out the depth they have a mismatch weapon in backup tight end Cameron Brate, burner Scott Miller, a crafty route runner in Tyler Johnson and vertical speed from the slot in rookie Jaelen Darden. One could make the argument that all of Brate, Miller and Johnson could start for several teams toward the bottom of this list and yet they are the fifth, sixth and seventh options in Tampa Bay. To put it simply, whether it be pure speed, winning at the catch point, generating separation via route running, or prowess after the catch, the Bucs basically have every skill type covered twice over (at least). Lastly, Godwin has shown the ability to be one of the best wide receivers in the league. Case in point, his 2019 playmaker score of 91.6 is the second-highest score we have seen.
Stat to know: In 2020 the Bucs had three players perform very well in our playmaker score metric with Evans (66.9) and Godwin (66.3) ranking 16th and 17th among WRs and Rob Gronkowksi (52.2) ranking third among TEs.
3. Dallas Cowboys
With a WR trio of Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys are easily one of the most difficult teams to cover in the NFL — prior to quarterback Dak Prescott’s injury last year, these guys were tearing up the league. On top of raw talent, what makes this trio so special is they all complement each other well, with Cooper being a savvy route runner who can beat single coverage at will, Gallup being a bona fide downfield threat who has displayed insane body control and ability at the catch point, and Lamb bringing a physicality to the slot and ability after the catch. The Cowboys also have a pair of tight ends in Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin that I think are a bit underrated. In 2020, Schultz proved to be a reliable fourth option and checkdown nightmare and was a monster after the catch, forcing almost as many missed tackles (13) as Travis Kelce’s 14 on 42 fewer receptions. This unit even has room to get even better with the potential development of Lamb, who was a very highly touted prospect just a year ago.
4. Buffalo Bills
This is a unit led by arguably the best WR in the game in Stefon Diggs, who can absolutely do it all. Whether it’s his precise route running, deep receiving, winning at the catch point, or getting absolutely freaky after the catch, there really aren’t any limits to Diggs’ game and in 2020, he got the volume we all knew he was capable of handling (third-highest target share in NFL, 29.2%). The rest of the Bills receiving corps is super solid as well as they run four deep, which is huge for a team that uses 10 personnel more than almost anyone. Rounding out the unit, they have a stud slot guy in Cole Beasley, a veteran route technician in Emmanuel Sanders, and second-year man Gabriel Davis, who as a fourth option in his rookie year caught 9 of 10 deep targets and put on an absolute highlight clinic all season long of toe taps and layout catches, often on the receiving end of an equally ridiculous Josh Allen throw.
5. Tennessee Titans
After the enormous Julio Jones trade, the Titans have arguably the two most physically gifted WRs in the NFL in Jones and A.J. Brown. Both are absolute studs who can basically do it all. Make no mistake either, Julio still has it. Despite often playing injured in 2020, Jones still ranked fourth in yards per route run. On the other side, Brown is so insanely good and efficient that he made developing our playmaker score an absolute nightmare, routinely breaking the system. Brown has had the highest score in each of the last two seasons, including the best score we have on record with a mark of 92.2. Similar to the Chiefs, the Titans definitely lack high-end playmakers beyond their top two guys, but Josh Reynolds and Anthony Firkser should both be reliable secondary options in 2021.
6. Denver Broncos
The Broncos are another team that has insane depth and can hit you from just about every angle. With Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler and Tim Patrick, the Broncos have four good options at receiver who all offer a different skill set. The Broncos also have a mismatch nightmare in tight end Noah Fant. With Sutton coming back from injury and the presumed development of Jeudy and Hamler, the only thing this team needs to become an elite passing offense is a QB capable of taking them there.
Stat to know: In 2020, Patrick — likely the team’s fourth option this year — ranked 12th among WRs in our playmaker score with a mark of 68.4.
7. Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are two perennially underrated receivers with diverse skill sets that allow them to get the job done a variety of ways. They headline a unit that is five guys deep and also features DeSean Jackson and two young recent Day 2 draft picks in Van Jefferson and Tutu Atwell. Tyler Higbee has always maximized his opportunity and presumably steps into a larger role in 2021 with the departure of fellow tight end Gerald Everett in free agency.
8. Seattle Seahawks
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett certainly form a top-five receiving duo. They both excel in taking the top off the defense. Last season, Metcalf put up the third-most deep receptions with 12. From a skillset perspective, these two are very different from each other — Metcalf wins with pure physical dominance, while Lockett is more a speedy, crafty route runner type who can feel impossible to cover at times. Lockett specifically seems to have a magical connection with quarterback Russell Wilson that allows them to play off script and punish opposing defenses on extended plays, making the Seahawks a very tough matchup for any defense. After the two studs, they don’t have a ton of depth at wide receiver, but they did spend a Day 2 pick on D’Wayne Eskridge, who was one of my favorite under-the-radar prospects in the 2021 draft. Eskridge gives them even more speed and explosiveness and should contribute immediately after the catch and potentially be a nice vertical weapon from the slot. Gerald Everett comes in to join the tight end unit and gives them another playmaker after the catch while Will Dissly excels with finding the soft spots in zone coverage.
Stat to know: Metcalf ranked fifth among WRs in playmaker score in 2020 (70.9).
9. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins made it a point this offseason to give quarterback Tua Tagovailoa every opportunity to succeed. By bringing in Will Fuller via free agency and drafting Jaylen Waddle with a top-10 pick, they have potentially given him one of the deepest, most skill diverse group of pass catchers in the league. When healthy, Fuller has been one of the best deep threats in the NFL, but in 2020 he seemed to really put it all together and proved he could be a go-to guy if need be. As of now, the Dolphins receiver room includes DeVante Parker and Preston Williams, who provide big body ball skills; Waddle and Fuller, who provide world class speed and quickness; and Lynn Bowden and Jakeem Grant, who provide shifty slot ability. At tight end, Mike Gesicki is a potential mismatch guy who spends a lot of his time in the slot taking advantage of either undersized defensive backs or less twitchy linebackers.
Stat to know: In 2020, Fuller ranked third among receivers in playmaker score with a mark of (76.6).
10. San Francisco 49ers
Slotting the 49ers was tough, as Kyle Shanahan has proven his scheme can be the driving force behind high-level production, almost regardless of the players he has. That said, I do think the 49ers trio of George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk is as exciting as any in the NFL and has a chance to land even higher on this list come season’s end. All three of these guys provide miserable days for defenders looking to get them on the ground after the catch. With Shanahan’s ability to get these guys in space consistently, this unit should terrorize the league this year. I look forward to seeing what kind of impact they can have if they get better working the intermediate and deep parts of the field in 2021. All three of them have scored well in our playmaker score metric, with Kittle (77.5 in 2019) and Samuel (74.4 in 2019) both ranking top-five in 2019 and Aiyuk putting up a top-20 season of his own as a rookie last year (63.4).
11. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are another team with an incredible pass-catching duo at the top and then not much else beyond that. Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are as good a combo as you can get, with both guys putting up very good playmaker scores in 2020 — Jefferson ranked second among WRs (80.3), Thielen 11th (68.6).
Stat to know: As a rookie in 2020, Jefferson tied for third in deep receptions (12) and tied for second in created receptions (5).
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
Depth seems to be a fairly common trait among teams near the top, and the Steelers certainly have that in Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool and James Washington. These four as a unit provide just about every skill set you need to get the job done consistently. The only thing they really lack is “the guy” who is the bona fide No. 1 in the offense. Lucky for them, both Claypool and Johnson have shown tremendous upside and certainly could develop into that guy. To add to a good group of receivers the Steelers have a pretty good room at tight end with Eric Ebron and Pat Freiermuth, who they added in the second round of this year’s draft.
Stat to know: Claypool saw 15 catchable deep targets in 2020, third among WRs. He caught nine of them.
13. Green Bay Packers
The Packers have a bona fide stud in Davante Adams, who is certainly a contender for best WR in the NFL and then a collection of skill-specific role players. Most notably, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, who is a legitimate deep threat and led the NFL in average depth of target (17.7 yards) among receivers with at least 40 targets in 2020. Robert Tonyan is also a factor in the offense, especially in the red zone, where he put up the third-most touchdowns among tight ends with 7.
14. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have a trio of receivers in Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and 2021 fifth overall pick Ja’Marr Chase that has a chance to be one of the top units in the league at some point. However, it’s almost purely projection at this point, as one of those guys has never played a down and another has just one season under his belt. That said, the pure potential of this group is incredible and thus reflected here in the rankings.
Stat to know: In 2020, Higgins picked up a first down on 47.7% of receptions, the 10th-highest rate among all pass catchers with at least 80 targets.
15. New York Giants
The Giants were another team that went all in on helping their young QB. By signing Kenny Golladay to a massive deal and selecting a draft favorite of mine in Kadarius Toney in the first round of the 2021 draft, they have added a ton of fire power to the group. What I love most is just how different Golladay and Toney are in skill set, presumably giving Daniel Jones and the offense a lot of skill set diversity. Those two join Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram, who all add to the group positively with clearly defined skill sets and ultimately form a very deep group that has a ton of potential. In fact, it would not surprise me if we finished the 2021 season with the Giants ranked comfortably in the top-10. The cherry on top is the return of running back Saquon Barkley to the offense. While not many running backs move the needle for me in the passing game, Barkley is certainly a guy capable of making an impact and with presumably less of the burden falling on his shoulders this year, I expect his efficiency to be on the rise.
Stat to know: In 2019, Golladay’s last mostly healthy season, he ranked 10th among WRs in playmaker score with a mark of 64.7.
16. Carolina Panthers
D.J. Moore seemingly always finds new ways to impress me. Last season, it was his effectiveness in the deep game despite having Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. Moore put up the third-most deep receptions with (12) and only Tyreek Hill and DK Metcalf had more receiving yards on deep targets. Combined with Moore’s ability in the short parts of the field, specifically after the catch, we are all just waiting for him to put it all together for a massive breakout year, which is saying a lot considering he has put up nearly 1,200 yards in back-to-back seasons. Robby Anderson is another very solid receiving option in this group who has previously been a fantastic deep threat routinely showcasing his elite speed. In 2020 however, Anderson showed some more skills as a possession receiver. With two guys who can seemingly do it all, the Panthers receiving core is in good shape, especially after replacing departed gadget player Curtis Samuel with second-round pick Terrace Marshall this year, which could wind up being an upgrade. The Panthers have unproven commodities at tight end but do bring the NFL’s best pass-catching running back to the table in Christian McCaffrey.
Stat to know: Moore’s playmaker score of 69.7 in 2020 was good for seventh among WRs.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
Three players have put up playmaker scores that rank in the top-10 in both 2019 and 2020: A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill and…. Marvin Jones? That’s right, Marvin Jones. The Jaguars signing of Jones could very well go down as the most underrated move of the 2021 offseason — quite frankly, he’s the perfect guy to pair with rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who is used to throwing the ball up to contested catch demons Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross. That’s exactly where Jones has excelled in the NFL. Jones is joined by Laviska Shenault — who has a top-10 playmaker score season of his own, ranking 10th among WRs as a rookie with a mark 69.1 — and D.J. Chark — who gives Lawrence another legit deep threat and a guy who can just absolutely burn it. The Jaguars don’t offer much in the way of tight ends, but they did spend a first-round pick on a running back (Travis Etienne) who should excel as a pass-catcher in Urban Meyer’s offense.
18. Baltimore Ravens
I am probably a lot higher on this unit than most, and I realize that. I think at the least you can easily make the case they are the most improved unit in the league. While we can have conversations about Lamar Jackson’s ability as a passer, especially his throw-for-throw accuracy — legit conversations to have — the Ravens have not done Jackson any favors with what he has had to work with since entering the NFL. This offseason they made a huge effort to remedy that. After being involved with many of the free agent receivers, they ended up signing Sammy Watkins and spending a first-round pick on the top receiver on my board, Rashod Bateman. While Watkins hasn’t lived up to the hype since entering the league (chronic injuries suck), he is still more than capable when healthy and offers a skillset that should gel with Jackson’s. Bateman immediately gives the offense a guy capable of absorbing a ton of targets and someone that works all parts of the field. In total, the additions of Watkins and Bateman should make Marquise Brown better as well, essentially improving three spots. And let’s not forget that Mark Andrews is a top-five talent in the NFL at tight end as well, and his 67.2 playmaker score in 2019 is the third-highest mark we have seen for a tight end the past two seasons.
19. Atlanta Falcons
By trading Julio Jones, the Falcons went from a likely top-five unit to just being middle of the pack. Coming off a career year — one where he really established himself as a legit deep threat, ranking first in deep catches — Calvin Ridley headlines the group here. The term “pass-catcher” probably isn’t better defined than simply uttering the name of Kyle Pitts, who the Falcons selected at fourth overall in this year’s draft. While the potential for him as a receiver is great, we still aren’t sure how quickly he will adjust to the NFL. If everything goes right for him in 2020, this is a unit that could certainly jump a few spots by seasons end.
Stat to know: Calvin Ridley led the NFL in deep receptions last season, with 15.
20. Cleveland Browns
The Browns have a very good pair of receivers in Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. In those guys you get production at all levels of the field, and you get it in a variety of ways. Unfortunately though, it’s been a few years since we have seen Beckham at his best. If he were to return to his previous form where he was easily a top-five WR in the league, the Browns would easily climb the list by a good bit. Outside of these two, the Browns don’t really have much in the way of difference makers. Austin Hooper at tight end is solid, but he’s not a guy you can rely on to consistently win matchups.
21. Arizona Cardinals
Seems like everyone is expecting the Cardinals group of pass-catchers to be very good this year. Maybe I am being a bit harsh, but A.J. Green in his current state doesn’t move the needle for me and Christian Kirk is best served as a third or fourth option. The Cardinals do have DeAndre Hopkins, who has been phenomenal since entering the league, and the transition to a new team in 2020 didn’t slow him down one bit — he led all WRs in first down catches with 76. While Hopkins alone is good enough to carry the group to the middle of the pack, they will need either a rejuvenation from Green or a major contribution from rookie Rondale Moore for this unit to take a big step.
Stat to know: Hopkins led all WRs in forced missed tackles after the catch in 2020 with 21.
22. New England Patriots
It’s very hard to project where the Patriots end up post 2021 considering that three of their top five pass catchers in 2021 will likely be new additions. On paper, I really like what they did, adding two tight ends who can greatly affect the passing game in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry and adding Nelson Agholor, who may be a bit underrated. In 2020, Agholor established himself as one of the league’s best deep threats by putting up top-five numbers in both deep receptions and yards and touchdowns. In fact, only Tyreek Hill’s 8 deep touchdowns ranked ahead of Agholor’s 6. These three join James White — one of the league’s best pass-catching backs for half a decade — and Jakobi Meyers — who was probably the lone bright spot of the Patriots passing game in 2020.
23. Washington Football Team
The Football Team should see a huge improvement from where they were a year ago. Adding Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown to Terry McLaurin rounds out a pretty solid WR group, but one we need to see play together before we crown them as anything special. Logan Thomas is also in the mix at tight end. He was a massive surprise in 2020, racking up the third-most targets among tight ends. In the end, I am sure McLaurin will welcome the help, as he has been a one-man wrecking crew for the past couple of years.
24. Chicago Bears
It’s possible this unit takes a gigantic leap forward just as a result of better quarterback play. Allen Robinson is an absolute freak in the air and at the catch point and has really never had even above-average quarterback play to work with. Outside of his ridiculousness, it’s really hard to evaluate the rest of the unit with the QB play we have seen in Chicago the past few years. If 2020 draft picks Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet take good steps forward, this unit will look much improved by season’s end.
Stat to know: In 2020, Robinson led the NFL in created receptions with 6.
25. Los Angeles Chargers
The perception of the Chargers unit as a whole is largely elevated by the presence of Keenan Allen, who might just be the best route runner in the league. Even still, Allen’s game lacks an explosive element that would allow him to break games open and take them over. Compared to other upper-echelon receivers, Allen is just missing that “it” factor. Don’t get me wrong, I love him, but I would absolutely love to see what he is capable of playing next to another stud. Ultimately, Allen’s impact would probably be maximized a bit more if the Chargers had more around him, but they just don’t. Mike Williams is a solid-to-good player but is probably best suited being a No. 3 target, especially given his inefficient play style. Outside of Williams, they have sort of played the WR position by committee and while they have done so with some success, they haven’t identified a player that opposing defenses need to plan for. They did spend a Day 2 pick on WR Josh Palmer, who they will surely look to for some help outside. This whole problem will likely be exacerbated by the departure of Hunter Henry in free agency as well, as now the Chargers don’t have much at tight end either.
26. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are in a very similar position to the Chargers in that they have an excellent possession receiver out of the slot in Michael Thomas and not much else for proven options. Also similar to the Chargers, their second-best option in the pass game is possibly a running back — in New Orleans’ case, Alvin Kamara. Kamara is a nightmare after the catch, forcing 20 missed tackles on receptions in 2020, the second-most among running backs. Like many of the teams this low on the list, the Saints will be hoping for development from some youngsters in order to take a step forward, most notably, second-year TE Adam Trautman, who could step into a major role.
27. New York Jets
Among the teams in the bottom third on this list, it’s easy to feel the best about the Jets situation. While we have seen almost none of it manifested in a Jets uniform yet, on paper at least, the Jets come into the 2021 season with five capable players at receiver including a pair of youngsters with tremendous potential in Elijah Moore and Denzel Mims. To go with them the Jets spent legit money on free agents Corey Davis and Keelan Cole and also have returning veteran Jamison Crowder. If everything goes right this season, this unit could actually turn out quite formidable. At the very least, the Jets seem determined not to make the same mistake with Zach Wilson as they did Sam Darnold by giving the man some weapons.
28. Las Vegas Raiders
Jon Gruden and the Raiders make confusing decisions all the time, and letting Nelson Agholor walk door when they had no other proven options on the roster is definitely one of them. Perhaps they thought the skillsets of Agholor and Henry Ruggs were redundant to each, making Agholor expendable, but I certainly would have loved to see them on the field together more. Alas, here we are, and the Raiders have a bottom-of-the-barrel unit. Darren Waller being an elite receiving threat at tight end is the only thing currently keeping this passing offense from completely bottoming out, but the man can only do so much. If the Raiders have any chance of climbing the list and improving as a unit it lies with whether Ruggs can live up to his draft status.
29. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have had a very poor unit for some time now; even going back to their Super Bowl run, their pass-catching group wasn’t that great. The Eagles have realized this and spent consecutive first-round picks on a WR in the form of Jalen Reagor in 2020 and DeVonta Smith this year. Both of those guys are relative unknowns at this point, but if either hits the ground running in 2021, he will join a very good pass-catching tight end in Dallas Goedert, who is likely to be the top dog in the passing game if healthy. The Eagles also sort of struck gold finding Travis Fulgham on the trash heap after the Lions and Packers couldn’t find a spot for him on their 53-man. The future in Philly could be bright if all things go well.
30. Indianapolis Colts
On paper, the Colts actually have a chance to be OK if recent Day 2 picks Parris Campbell (needs to stay healthy) and/or Michael Pittman (needs to continue developing). These are no guarantees however, and beyond that they have an aging T.Y. Hilton as their main pass catcher. The Colts sort of attack the tight end position with a committee approach and ultimately don’t have a big passing-game contributor there. Nyheim Hines provides them with decent upside as an option out of the back field but ultimately his level of involvement in the passing game is more of an indictment on the receiving core than anything else.
Stat to know: It’s not an advanced stat, but it’s certainly a relevant one: Running back Nyheim Hines led the team in receptions a year ago with 64.
31. Houston Texans
Looking at the Texans’ group of pass catchers it’s really hard to imagine how a team could be worse … and yet they’re only No. 31 on this list. The deciding factor for me here is that I think Brandin Cooks and his skill set are more valuable to a team than T.J. Hockenson’s for the Lions (at least right now). Now on his fourth team, Cooks has proven that he is not only a bona fide deep threat but he can be a major part of any passing offense. Outside of Cooks, though, the cupboard is pretty bare.
Stat to know: Cooks tied for third in deep receptions with 12 in 2020.
32. Detroit Lions
T.J. Hockenson is really the only thing the Lions passing game has going for it at this point. While he has been pretty good, he can only do so much and he isn’t a true game changer at tight end like Travis Kelce, George Kittle or Darren Waller, at least not that we have seen yet. The entire wide receiver core is composed of journeyman receivers — who at best are best suited to be third and fourth options for a team — and a couple of Day 3 picks. While I was very high on both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Quintez Cephus, the reality is that Day 3 picks have uphill battles to become consistent contributors, especially right away. The Lions may be the only team in the NFL this year that takes a legit committee approach at every receiver spot rotating multiple guys in or out.
