Randle Roundup: NBA Betting Trends of the Week (10/21)

The 2022-2023 NBA season is real … and it’s fantastic.

Every Friday, I’ll provide NBA betting insight from the prior week’s slate of games. I’ll select trends, tidbits and observations that will be useful in the NBA betting market moving forward.

After our first full week with 16 NBA games, let’s take a deep dive into some actionable information we gleaned from this week’s contests.

Tuesday

Boston Celtics 126, Philadelphia 76ers 117

Celtics (Home) -3; Over 216

James Harden (35 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists, 5/9 3P) was superb and still allowed Tyrese Maxey (21 points) and Tobias Harris (18 points) to the over on their point totals. Joel Embiid only scored 26 points but grabbed a game-high 15 rebounds. The 76ers bench provided almost nothing.
Curious to see if the Boston defense suffers without head coach Ime Udoka. The Celtics stifled teams for the better part of the season.
Malcolm Brogdon came off the bench but was Boston’s third-leading scorer (16 points). Despite earning the start, guard Derrick White (2 points) appears to be the odd man out of the scoring.
One of the most underrated prop bets in Jayson Tatum Over Rebounds. He posted 12 boards, cruising past his 7.5 rebounds prop. He also beat this 24-point prop, while tying teammate Jaylen Brown with 35 points. Brown made four 3P, but more importantly, attempted 12 shots from deep.
Grant Williams (15 Points, 3/3 3P) will be a valuable bench contributor, especially with Robert Williams sidelined with recurring knee issues. Tatum Rebounds Over and Grant Williams 3P Over will be two of my favorite props until Time Lord returns.

Golden State Warriors 123, Los Angeles Lakers 109

Warriors (Home) -7.5; Over 223.5

The Warriors received their championship rings and responded with a comfortable 123-109 win. Stephen Curry’s points prop (24.5) was absurdly low based on a minutes restriction rumor. It turns out 32 minutes is more than enough to post 33 points, 6 rebounds and 7 assists. Teammate Klay Thompson (18 points) did see a minutes restriction (19 minutes), but still went over his rebounds + assists number (4.5, +118).
The preseason fight between Draymond Green and Jordan Poole translated into two PRA unders. Finally, Andrew Wiggins (20 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 4/7 3P) continues to evolve after last year’s first All-Star selection.
The Lakers did nothing to remove the stink from last year’s disappointing season. This game was LeBron James (31 points, 14 rebounds, 8 assists), Anthony Davis (27 points) and little else. Russell Westbrook (19 points, 11 rebounds) was surprisingly efficient, but I question whether that can be sustained. Los Angeles needs a healthy return form Dennis Schroder from thumb surgery in a month.
Kendrick Nunn scored 13 points in 23 minutes and may need to enter the starting lineup if Lonnie Walker (5 points) fails to impress again.

Wednesday

Detroit Pistons 113, Orlando Magic 109

Pistons (Home) -3.5; Over 215.5

Magic point guard Cole Anthony was ruled out right before tipoff with an illness, bringing an unforeseen variable into the prop bet world.
Jalen Suggs stepped into the starting lineup and took advantage with 21 points (4/6 3P). I would look to fade Suggs as soon as Anthony returns. While I am a huge fan of the former Gonzaga guard, his lack of consistency as a rookie indicates this was an anomaly.
Rookie Paolo Banchero shined in his first NBA game, posting 27 points on 61% (11 of 18) from the field. He added nine rebounds, five assists, and two blocks, while playing a team-high 35 minutes. Franz Wagner also added 20 points, which makes me wonder: whose scoring will suffer given the influx of talent? My vote goes to Wendell Carter, who fell very short of his 16-point prop but did grab 11 rebounds.
For Detroit, Cade Cunningham was solid (18 points, 10 assists), but only shot 37.5% from the field. Rookie Jaden Ivey (19 points) and veteran Bojan Bogdanovic (24 points) posted great production with mid-30s minutes played. This is concerning for Saddiq Bey who only attempts five shots, at home, in a close game. Rookie Jalen Duren (14 points, 10 rebounds) was also very efficient in just 22 minutes. He grabbed five offensive rebounds while posting three blocks.
Most importantly? Isaiah Stewart did, in fact, cash his 0.5 3PM prop, albeit with just 11 seconds left.

Washington Wizards 114, Indiana Pacers 107

Wizards -3 (Away); Under 228.5

Indiana big man Myles Turner tweaked his ankle in warmups and was ruled out. Another last-minute injury that had a significant effect on the betting world.
Kyle Kuzma (22 points, 13 rebounds) continued his super production, even with Bradley Beal in the starting lineup. Kuzma also grabbed 13 rebounds to lead both teams, clearly taking advantage of Myles Turner’s absence.
Beal (23 points) was solid in his return from injury, and still hit the over on his assist prop (5.5), despite playing alongside point guard Monte Morris. Kristaps Porzingis posted a double-double (15 points, 10 rebounds), despite a woeful 5 of 14 (35.7%) from the field.
Washington has a deep bench, with three Wizards playing 24 minutes or more. Forward Deni Avdija left late in the first half with a sprained right ankle, but only played eight minutes up to that point. Watch for veteran Will Barton (17 points, 3 of 4 3P) on his next game props. Tonight’s props of 11 points and 1.5 3PM were both easy wins.
For Indiana, guard Tyrese Haliburton (26 points, 4 rebounds, 7 assists) easily beat his props for points (17), and PRA (30.5), but fell short on assists (9.5). Despite playing 32 minutes, Buddy Hield (16 points) still missed his points number (17.5).
Pacers big man Jalen Smith (16 points, 8 rebounds) was productive despite a pregame questionable tag.
The biggest bench contribution for Indiana came from rookie Bennedict Mathurin, with 19 points and seven rebounds in just 28 minutes.

Atlanta Hawks 117, Houston Rockets 107

Rockets +10.5 (Away); Under 235

How would Dejounte Murray and Trae Young co-exist? The answer was nicely, as they combined for 43 points and 23 assists, which offset a woeful 3P shooting night (combined 1 of 14).
Atlanta’s John Collins (24 points) and De’Andre Hunter (22 points) both easily crushed their points props. Collins offensive production could be very underrated, and profitable, moving forward.
Houston’s Kevin Porter (21 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists) already started paying off his new contract. He beat both his points prop (20) and plus-money rebounds prop (5.5).
Rockets rookie Jabari Smith (17 points, 7 rebounds) played well, and proved he wasn’t shy with a game-high 11 three-point attempts.
Fantasy favorite Alperen Sengun (15 points, 9 rebounds) hit his points (12.5) and rebounds prop (8.5) in just 22 minutes off the bench. This eased the pain of his game-high six turnovers.

New Orleans Pelicans 130, Brooklyn Nets 108

Pelicans +3 (Away); Over 226.5

Nets continue their streak as a massive fade from last season. Brooklyn finished 33-5-2 ATS, second-worst in the NBA.
Zion Williamson looked great in his return (25 points, 9 rebounds, 4 steals). He joined Brandon Ingram (28 points) and CJ McCollum (21) as a trio of Pelicans that were over 20 points. Big man Jonas Valanciunas (15 points, 13 rebounds) added a double-double in a game that was dominated by starter scoring. Herb Jones (6 points, 4 rebounds) is incredibly valuable in real life, but fell short of his low points prop (8.5 points).
Kevin Durant (32 points) was his usual dominant self but Kyrie Irving (15 points) disappointed. Nic Claxton (13 points, 10 rebounds) tallied a double-double, but the fascination with Ben Simmons (4 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists) continues to vex me.
Patty Mills (16 points, four 3PM) will be volatile all season, but could be worth a look at home.

Chicago Bulls 116, Miami Heat 108

Bulls +7.5 (Away); Over 226.5

The Bulls earned an impressive road win despite playing without Zach LaVine (knee). He is rumored to miss Friday’s game against the Wizards as well.
DeMar DeRozan (37 points) continued his scoring efficiency from last season, while adding six rebounds and nine assists. Center Nikola Vucevic (15 points, 17 rebounds) posted a double-double and is always a viable prop option with LaVine out.
Second-year guard Ayo Dosunmu (17 points, six rebounds, 4 assists) impressed in his start at point guard and could be very undervalued moving forward. With LaVine out, Dosunmu should be a points over target Friday night.
Goran Dragic (12 points) and Coby White (10 points) are solid bench plays and may limit the production of Alex Caruso (30 minutes, 6 points) and forward Patrick Williams (28 minutes, 4 points) in the future.
Miami’s Jimmy Butler (24 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists) filled up the stat sheet thanks to 14/16 from the free throw line. Tyler Herro added 23 points including 4/8 from 3P range, but this team will struggle on offense if Bam Adebayo (12 points, 9 rebounds) can’t post 15-plus points per game. Some of that may be due to Vucevic, but I’m concerned about Adebayo’s consistency.
Max Strus (22 points, 5/7 3P) is a valuable bench scorer with Lowry now back healthy.
All NBA fans love what Kyle Lowry brings each night, but at 36 years old is his nightly ceiling now capped?

Toronto Raptors 108, Cleveland Cavaliers 105

Raptors -2.5 (Home); Under 216.5

Donovan Mitchell has assumed the scoring load for the Cavaliers (31 points, 12/21 FG), in the exact same way he did in Utah. All-Star guard Darius Garland (4 points, 5 TOs, 13 minutes) injured his eye late in the second quarter and didn’t return. Evan Mobley (14 points, 6 rebounds) and Jarrett Allen (13 points, 10 rebounds) were good, but not great, on the road against a tough defensive Raptors
If Caris LeVert can only score 10 points in 35 minutes when Garland only plays 13 minutes, when can he score? I’d look to fade his props when Garland returns. Cedi Osman (17 points, 3/6 3P) clearly benefited from Garland’s absence.
Toronto’s Pascal Siakam (23 points, 11 rebounds, 3 steals) filled the box score, and don’t overlook Scottie Barnes (15 points, 7 rebounds), who will only get better in his second season. OG Anunoby (18 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals) played a secure 38 minutes, as head coach Nick Nurse only trusted Precious Achiuwa (10 points, 5 rebounds, 18 minutes) for significant bench contribution.
Fred VanVleet’s 3P volume (3/6 3P) was far below last year (9.9 3PA per game), which is worth monitoring as a possible trend.

Memphis Grizzlies 115, New York Knicks 112 (OT)

Knicks +4.5 (Away); Over 226.5

Ja Morant (34 points, 4 rebounds, 9 assists) was fantastic and shot 3/6 from 3P range. If he improves his accuracy from deep, he’s a legitimate MVP candidate.
All Steven Adams does is grab rebounds (14), easily hitting his plus-money number (9.5). Guard Desmond Bane (16 points, 6/22 FG, 3/13 3P) had an off-shooting night against the tough Knicks defense.
How about 21-year-old Santi Aldama? The second-year 6-foot-11 forward scored 18 points and grabbed 11 rebounds while shooting 3 of 8 from 3P range. With Jaren Jackson out (stress fracture) until Christmas, Aldama is an intriguing play until the books recognize the diverse skill set of the Loyola (MD) product.
Julius Randle (24 points, 11 rebounds, 6 assists) was surprising after a disappointing 2021-2022. He was very much the Knicks alpha, besting the production of newly acquired Jalen Brunson (15 points, 6 rebounds, 9 assists) and RJ Barrett (11 points, 3/18 FG).
Isaiah Hartenstein (16 points, 8 rebounds) played a shocking 40 minutes, with Mitchell Robinson (4 points) battling through foul trouble.
Bench relevance: New York’s Cam Reddish (22 points, 5 rebounds, 3 steals) and Memphis’ Tyus Jones (15 points, 3 of 8 3P) both played big roles.

Minnesota Timberwolves 115, Oklahoma City Thunder 108

Thunder +11 (Away); Under 226

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (32 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks) shook off a slow start and found his way to a superb night. He will be projected for dominant usage every night when healthy.
Josh Giddey (14 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists) always produces and was one of only three Oklahoma City players that saw 33 minutes or more.
The Thunder played a deep bench (7 players) but experienced minimal production.
Rudy Gobert’s arrival in Minnesota is going to affect Karl-Anthony Towns, but how? Gobert posted 23 points and 16 rebounds (7 offensive), while Towns disappointed (12 points, 6 rebounds) greatly disappointed. Forward Jaden McDaniels (19 points, 6 rebounds, 3 steals, 2 blocks) was a huge factor, offsetting a poor shooting night from Anthony Edwards (11 points, 4/17 FG)
By making the trade for Gobert, the Timberwolves weaken their depth. Players such as Jaylen Nowell (13 points), Taurean Prince (11 points), and Jordan McLaughlin (4 points), lack the nightly upside, which should equate to the starters playing big minutes.
I need to watch Minnesota more before coming to a conclusion on Towns’ suppressed production.

Charlotte Hornets 129, San Antonio Spurs 102

Hornets -1 (Away); Over 220.5

Seven Charlotte players scored 12 points or more, led by Terry Rozier (24 points, 4/7 3P). With Miles Bridges out and LaMelo Ball out, Rozier could be the biggest beneficiary with more scoring chances. Nick Richards had a career-high 19 points with 10 rebounds.
The only player to reach 30 minutes besides Rozier was P.J. Washington (17 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 blocks).
San Antonio’s Devin Vassell (11 points, 3/15 FG) had a brutal night, but Keldon Johnson (20 points, 11 rebounds) was great. Similar to Minnesota, the Spurs bench is deep but unproductive. Rookie Jeremy Sochan (4 points, 7 rebounds, 2 steals) is only the fifth rookie to start for San Antonio.

Utah Jazz 123, Denver Nuggets 102

Utah +7 (Home); Under 225.5

The shocking result of the night. The Jazz had seven players in double-figures, led by Collin Sexton’s 20 points off the bench. New Utah forward Lauri Markkanen added 17 points. Rookie center Walker Kessler was very impressive, with 12 points and 10 rebounds in just 24 minutes.
Two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic struggled (27 points, 4 rebounds) as Denver was simply outworked by the Jazz all night. Jarred Vanderbilt (7 points, 12 rebounds) was a massive factor in just 18 minutes, despite foul trouble.
The Nuggets battled understandable rust from Jamal Murray (12 points, 5/13 FG) but should be encouraged by a good first game from Michael Porter (15 points, 5/10 FG, 7 rebounds) after back surgery. I was concerned about a decrease in production from Aaron Gordon (22 points, 10 rebounds), but that proved misguided, at least for opening night.
The two bench players to watch on Denver are Bones Hyland (16 minutes, 10 points, 3 assists) and newly acquired Bruce Brown (21 minutes, 8 points). Both are efficient players that can beat their suppressed props on any given night.

Phoenix Suns 107, Dallas Mavericks 105

Mavericks +4 (Away); Under 218

A massive second-half comeback by the Suns, spearheaded by Devin Booker’s 28 points, four rebounds and nine assists. Booker averaged close to six assists per game over the final two months of last season, and he beat his points and assists prop easily.
Chris Paul (6 points, 1 of 6 FG) continued his struggles against Dallas. Paul has scored 13 points or fewer in his last six games against the Mavericks, including last year’s playoffs.
Deandre Ayton (18 points, 10 rebounds) and Mikal Bridges (13 points, 11 rebounds) posted double-doubles, and Damion Lee scored all 11 of his points in the fourth quarter (including the game winner).
Keep a watch on Cameron Johnson (15 points, 3/6 3P), who is now starting with Jae Crowder remaining away from the team. Johnson can catch fire at home and beat his silly 1.5 3PM prop. When Booker gets doubled, Johnson should see a significant volume increase. He attempted the second-most shots (13) behind Booker in the loss.
For Dallas, Luka Doncic (35 points) beat his points prop despite only shooting 2 of 10 from 3P range. He also hit one of my favorite bets from last season, his over in rebounds (8.5). Newly acquired Christian Wood (25 points, 8 rebounds) was sensational coming off the bench. Tim Hardaway (9 points, 3/10 FG, 1 of 5 3P) was rusty in his return from a foot fracture that ended last season. Spencer Dinwiddie (15 points) got the start and hit a huge plus-money prop on his 3PM (2.5, +145).
Dallas blew a 20-point first half lead despite shooting 40% (14 of 35) from 3P range on the road. The reason? 61% (21 of 34) from the free-throw line, including Doncic’s 13 of 13.

Portland Trail Blazers 115, Sacramento Kings 108

Trail Blazers +3.5 (Away); Under 229.5

Don’t look now, but Portland has some scoring versatility on offense. Damian Lillard (20 points, 8 assists) didn’t even attempt the most shots (5 of 18 FG). Anfernee Simons did (9 of 22), but it was Jerami Grant who scored the most points (23). Grant dominates the ball and could suppress Lillard and specifically center Jusuf Nurkic (8 points, 7 rebounds) in the future. Josh Hart (19 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists) contributes in every possible way.
It’s not a deep bench for Portland, but rookie Shaedon Sharpe (12 points, 3 of 3 3P) certainly impressed.
Sacramento’s De’Aaron Fox was spectacular (33 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 5/9 3P), and he created open shots for Kevin Huerter (23 points, 6/9 3P) repeatedly.
Kings rookie Keegan Murray missed the game due to COVID-19, which triggered KZ Okpala (0 points, 16 minutes) to earn the starting nod.
Despite playing the second-most minutes (33) of any Sacramento player, Domantas Sabonis (13 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists). He had the efficiency, but not the volume (5 of 10 FG).
Despite a fantastic finish to his rookie season, Davion Mitchell (2 points, 0/5 3P) produced nothing despite 26 minutes off the bench.

Thursday

Milwaukee Bucks 90, Philadelphia 76ers 88

Bucks +4 (Away); Under 224.5

No Khris Middleton, no problem for Milwaukee. The Bucks won despite a huge off night from Jrue Holiday (6 points, 2/15 FG), and lower than average production from Giannis Antetokounmpo (21 points). Giannis did, however, post 13 boards, and a super-impressive eight assists.
Grayson Allen (12 points) played over 30 minutes, as did Brook Lopez (17 points, 4/12 3P). Bobby Portis notched a double-double (11 points, 10 rebounds) off the bench.
James Harden was great again (31 points, 8 rebounds, 9 assists) despite just 1/7 from 3P range. Milwaukee did a strong defensive job on Joel Embiid (15 points, 6/21 FG), who again finished well-below his usual scoring output with a big game from Harden. Tyrese Maxey (15 points) and Tobias Harris (nine points) both finished below their points prop.
The 76ers bench was non-existent yet again. Is Doc Rivers the new Nick Nurse?

Los Angeles Clippers 103, Los Angeles Lakers 97

Clippers (Home) -5; Under 226.5

The Russell Westbrook efficiency from opening night was predictably unsustainable. He finished with just 2 points on 0-11 shooting from the field. The reason this game stayed close? Lonnie Walker erupted for 26 points.
LeBron James posted 20/10/6 and Anthony Davis registered 25/8. That’s not going to be good enough to win tough games in the NBA. The Lakers tried increased minutes from Juan Toscano-Anderson (8 points, 4 rebounds) and Austin Reaves (4 points) with minimal success.
The Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard (14 points, 7 rebounds) came off the bench in his first game since tearing a ligament in his knee in June of 2021. Paul George posted 15 points and 10 rebounds, while Ivica Zubac (14 points, 17 rebounds, 5 blocks) had a monster night. Monitor opposing center production against the Lakers moving forward.
Reggie Jackson underwhelmed (8 points) while looking over his shoulder at the dynamic John Wall (15 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists), who played 25 minutes in his first game as a Clipper.