Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 3

The running back injuries have been fast and furious to start the 2023 season. And with backs from Nick Chubb to Austin Ekeler, Jamaal Williams, David Montgomery and Justice Hill poised to miss Week 3 (if not much more of the year), there are plenty of opportunities to snag and start players from your waiver wires. The Start and Sit article for Week 3 can help you decide.

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end, and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 3

Quarterbacks

7. Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. LAC

36.9-272-1.85-0.66 and 1.7-5-0.11 = 18.1 fantasy points

8. Justin Fields, CHI at KC

29.1-211-1.37-0.90 and 6.6-41-0.28 = 17.9

9. Anthony Richardson, IND at BLT

31.3-206-1.10-0.81 and 6.5-40-0.46 = 17.8

Anthony Richardson has a 27% carry share that is fifth highest at his position in 2023 — Lamar Jackson is sixth at 26%. Richardson is tied for first with six red zone carries and two carries inside the 5-yard line. And he’s all that despite missing most of the final three quarters in Week 2 with an apparent concussion. If he plays in Week 3, then start him.

10. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. DEN

33.8-288-1.69-0.78 and 2.3-4-0.08 = 17.7

Tua Tagovailoa was quiet by his standards with 249 yards and one touchdown in Week 2. But his Week 2 come down came against a Patriots team that ranked third in pass defense DVOA in 2022. The Broncos may not be dramatically better as a fantasy opponent. But I view Tagovailoa as a back-end QB1 even in his bad matchups and possible top eight option versus easier defense. I would start him this week.

11. Joe Burrow, CIN vs. LA

35.9-248-1.76-0.72 and 2.2-8-0.13 = 17.1

I’m not worried about Joe Burrow in the big picture. His meager 82-yard, no-touchdown Week 1 performance was likely aided by the rain in Cleveland. And he bounced back to a moderate 222 yards and two touchdowns even against a strong Ravens defense in Week 2. But Burrow has just two rushing attempts in two weeks and reportedly reaggravated his calf injury Sunday. And rushing was a sneaky-important part of his fantasy appeal — he had 257 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns last season. I am projecting him for a 12.0% Week 3 carry share that is just 22nd at the position. I wouldn’t bench him in Week 3, but he’s outside my top 10 at the position.

12. Dak Prescott, DAL at ARZ

35.0-249-1.66-0.84 and 3.1-11-0.10 = 16.6

You could attribute Dak Prescott‘s jump from 143 yards and no-touchdowns in Week 1 to 255 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2 to game scripts. The Cowboys killed the Giants 40-0 to start the season and beat the Jets by just 20 last Sunday. But I would also note that Prescott has averaged 3.3 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in the last five-plus seasons. The Cardinals should be pushovers, but I see Prescott as just a borderline QB1 in Arizona.

13. Deshaun Watson, CLV vs. TEN

31.6-230-1.42-0.82 and 4.5-25-0.11 = 16.5

Long term, losing Nick Chubb will likely hurt Deshaun Watson in fantasy. Chubb was a chain-mover, and longer drives mean more touchdowns and more fantasy points — even if Chubb himself was primed to take a chunk of those touchdowns for himself. But in Week 3, Watson faces the right matchup to mitigate the loss and hopefully break his fantasy slump. The Titans rank first in run defense DVOA and 23rd in pass defense DVOA so far this season. And last year, they ranked first in run defense and 28th in pass defense and allowed the second fewest fantasy points per game to running backs as opponents skewed their run ratios toward the pass. Watson isn’t a Week 2 QB1 in traditional formats, but he’s closer this week.

14. Geno Smith, SEA vs. CAR

33.0-238-1.58-0.56 and 2.6-15-0.04 = 16.4

Geno Smith righted his shaky Week 1 ship with 328 yards and two touchdowns in Detroit last Sunday, but the Lions ranked bottom 10 in pass defense DVOA last season. I think Smith’s 2022 breakout was real. His 82.5% adjusted accuracy percentage led regular quarterbacks per Reception Perception. But Smith may be a matchup play for fantasy this season.

15. Jared Goff, DET vs. ATL

34.6-260-1.59-0.52 and 1.2-2-0.02 = 16.1

Jared Goff went off on the Seahawks Sunday with 323 yards and three touchdowns. But he went nuts in that same matchup in Week 4 last year and then faded to 15.3 fantasy points per game the rest of the season, just 19th at his position. I will feel better about his QB1 prospects if Jameson Williams returns and plays to his pre-draft expectations.

16. Russell Wilson, DEN at MIA

32.0-234-1.44-0.64 and 2.8-16-0.09 = 16.0

The narrative of Russell Wilson is that he’s closer to being benched for Jarrett Stidham than to returning to his pre-2022 standard of play. And while I won’t play devil’s advocate on that perspective, I will point out that he ran six times for 56 yards on Sunday. Wilson only ran for more than 30 yards once in 2022. I am projecting him for a 15.5% carry share this week that is tied for 12th at his position, and that puts Wilson closer to the QB1 benchmark than you likely expect.

17. C.J. Stroud, HST at JAX

38.1-260-1.26-0.57 and 2.7-9-0.07 = 15.7

18. Daniel Jones, NYG at SF

31.5-214-1.10-0.63 and 5.8-27-0.21 = 15.6

19. Matthew Stafford, LA at CIN

36.7-265-1.39-0.92 and 1.9-5-0.12 = 15.5

20. Kenny Pickett, PIT at LV

36.0-230-1.48-0.86 and 3.2-11-0.16 = 15.4

21. Jordan Love, GB vs. NO

29.9-220-1.41-0.57 and 2.5-14-0.09 = 15.2

22. Derek Carr, NO at GB

35.5-258-1.46-0.92 and 1.9-5-0.04 = 15.0

Running Backs

15. Jahmyr Gibbs, DET vs. ATL

11.3-50-0.31 and 4.9-3.9-30-0.12 = 12.5

16. Raheem Mostert, MIA vs. DEN

14.3-72-0.40 and 2.7-2.1-14-0.07 = 12.4

17. Brian Robinson, WAS vs. BUF

18.0-72-0.50 and 2.0-1.4-11-0.05 = 12.3

18. Aaron Jones, GB vs. NO

11.3-56-0.29 and 3.6-2.8-25-0.17 = 12.2

19. Zack Moss, IND at BLT

15.3-70-0.44 and 2.3-1.9-12-0.05 = 12.1

20. Alexander Mattison, MIN vs. LAC

15.4-58-0.52 and 3.0-2.2-14-0.10 = 12.0

21. Isiah Pacheco, KC vs. CHI

13.3-64-0.40 and 2.3-1.8-14-0.04 = 11.3

22. Javonte Williams, DEN at MIA

13.0-55-0.34 and 3.8-2.8-17-0.09 = 11.2

23. Najee Harris, PIT at LV

14.5-57-0.39 and 2.9-2.2-13-0.10 = 11.1

24. Dameon Pierce, HST at JAX

14.2-56-0.38 and 2.9-2.2-13-0.06 = 10.6

25. Khalil Herbert, CHI at KC

12.3-60-0.33 and 2.4-1.7-13-0.05 = 10.4

Khalil Herbert saw fewer touches and scored fewer fantasy points in Week 2 than he did in Week 1. But the Bears’ decision to make D’Onta Foreman a healthy scratch spurred Herbert’s jump from a 36% to a 60% snap share. I think the fantasy points will come, and I would start him even in Kansas City.

26. Joshua Kelley, LAC at MIN

13.6-57-0.41 and 2.1-1.4-9-0.04 = 10.0

Joshua Kelley produced a modest 39 yards on 13 carries in his first start in relief of an injured Austin Ekeler, but he likely owes some of that inefficiency to that aforementioned Titans defense that ranked first in run defense DVOA and allowed the second fewest fantasy points per game to running backs in 2022. Kelley played a dominant 79% of snaps in Week 2 and took a 62% carry share that was 14th highest at the position. He is at least a flex start in an easier Week 3 matchup.

27. D’Andre Swift, PHI at TB

10.0-52-0.36 and 2.1-1.6-11-0.07 = 9.6

Kenneth Gainwell played 62% of snaps and saw 18 touches in Week 1, and D’Andre Swift played 75% of snaps and saw 31 touches with Gainwell sidelined in Week 2. Which one is the starter if both are healthy in Week 3? I have no idea. Head coach Nick Sirianni listed his four running backs without an order on his Week 1 depth chart. He could easily ride the hot hand and rotate top backs every week even if all of them are healthy. That would be frustrating for fantasy players, but it would likely still leave both Swift and Gainwell as flex starters with massive boom and bust weeks. I am projecting both backs for 30.0% carry shares and 7.5% target shares in Week 3.

28. Jerome Ford, CLV vs. TEN

12.6-52-0.40 and 1.7-1.3-8-0.05 = 9.4

Kareem Hunt fell from a 20.9% broken tackle rate from 2019 to 2021 that ranked 10th among backs with 200 or more carries to a 16.3% rate in 2022 that ranked 33rd among backs with 50 or more carries. I suspect the Browns let him walk as much for his declining juice as for his salary. As such, I’m Team Jerome Ford for fantasy. Flex him even against the Titans run defense.

29. Gus Edwards, BLT vs. IND

12.6-59-0.39 and 1.0-0.7-5-0.02 = 9.1

With Justice Hill likely to miss Week 3 with a toe injury, I am projecting Gus Edwards for a 42.5% carry share that is tied for 27th among running backs. He should be a fair J.K. Dobbins proxy with just Melvin Gordon behind him this week.

30. Tyler Allgeier, ATL at DET

11.6-53-0.37 and 1.4-1.1-8-0.03 = 9.1

Tyler Allgeier showed in Week 2 that he won’t have 100 yards and two touchdowns every week. But the second-string Falcons back still ranks ninth at the position with 31 carries this season. He won’t contribute what Bijan Robinson does as a receiver, but that’s fine for fantasy if Allgeier scores eight-plus touchdowns.

31. AJ Dillon, GB vs. NO

10.7-42-0.36 and 2.5-1.8-14-0.05 = 9.0

AJ Dillon couldn’t take advantage of Aaron Jones‘ Week 2 absence with just 55 yards and no touchdowns on 15 carries. But Dillon is up to a 1.25 expected touchdown shortfall that is fifth highest at the position. He’ll take some of Jordan Love‘s many passing touchdowns in future weeks, and I see him as a touchdown-driven flex start in Week 3 even assuming Jones returns to the field.

32. Jaylen Warren, PIT at LV

6.9-30-0.17 and 4.3-3.4-26-0.08 = 8.8

Jaylen Warren has played just 40% and 45% of snaps the first two weeks, and I haven’t softened my preseason stance that Najee Harris is the better player and early-down option. But with Diontae Johnson out with a hamstring injury, Kenny Pickett needs someone to target in the short areas of the field. And so far, that’s been Warren. The sophomore receiving back has a 16% target share that ranks seventh at the position, and that receiving work buoys him above the start benchmark in Week 3.

33. Breece Hall, NYJ vs. NE

8.7-51-0.26 and 2.2-1.4-12-0.05 = 8.8

Even Breece Hall can’t produce an explosive run every week, and his lack of such a run put a spotlight on his modest 33% snap share this season when it led to just nine yards on four carries in Week 2. Hall should shoot past his current snap share as he continues to recover from his 2022 ACL tear. But for now, he’s a back-end flex option that will likely live and die by his luck with explosive plays.

34. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI at TB

9.7-43-0.33 and 2.1-1.7-12-0.05 = 8.6

I am projecting Kenneth Gainwell and D’Andre Swift for the same 30.0% carry shares and 7.5% target shares in Week 3. But my projection system regresses carry and target projections for players with limited experience at their projected volume of touches. Gainwell has just two starts in two-plus professional seasons and drops a few spots to 33rd at the position and just past the flex benchmark in my Week 3 rankings.

35. Dalvin Cook, NYJ vs. NE

9.4-40-0.30 and 2.1-1.6-11-0.06 = 8.0

Dalvin Cook continued to pace his recovering teammate Breece Hall in Week 2. But Cook saw his 50% Week 1 snap share slip to just 36% on Sunday, and that just isn’t enough work for a less explosive back than Hall who likely won’t see the red zone opportunities he used to see in Minnesota now with Zach Wilson as his quarterback. Leave him on your benches this week.

36. Samaje Perine, DEN at MIA

5.9-25-0.15 and 3.9-3.1-23-0.13 = 8.0

37. Chuba Hubbard, CAR at SEA

5.9-28-0.14 and 2.7-2.2-17-0.06 = 6.7

38. Roschon Johnson, CHI at KC

5.5-25-0.19 and 2.5-2.0-14-0.06 = 6.4

39. Antonio Gibson, WAS vs. BUF

4.0-16-0.13 and 3.1-2.5-20-0.09 = 6.2

40. Kareem Hunt, CLV vs. TEN

7.3-30-0.23 and 1.4-1.1-8-0.04 = 5.9

41. Ezekiel Elliott, NE at NYJ

5.7-22-0.22 and 2.0-1.4-9-0.05 = 5.3

42. Devin Singletary, HST at JAX

6.4-28-0.19 and 1.3-1.0-7-0.03 = 5.3

43. Melvin Gordon, BLT vs. IND

6.9-28-0.25 and 0.9-0.7-6-0.02 = 5.3

44. Jerick McKinnon, KC vs. CHI

1.7-7-0.05 and 3.2-2.5-21-0.16 = 5.3

45. Craig Reynolds, DET vs. ATL

7.5-31-0.20 and 0.8-0.6-5-0.02 = 5.1

46. Matt Breida, NYG at SF

5.4-23-0.15 and 1.6-1.3-8-0.03 = 4.8

47. Tony Jones, NO at GB

6.6-24-0.20 and 1.2-0.8-5-0.03 = 4.6

48. Gary Brightwell, NYG at SF

5.6-24-0.16 and 1.1-0.8-5-0.02 = 4.4

49. Sean Tucker, TB vs. PHI

5.7-21-0.15 and 1.1-0.9-6-0.03 = 4.2

50. Tyjae Spears, TEN at CLV

3.3-16-0.09 and 2.0-1.4-10-0.05 = 4.1

51. Kendre Miller, NO at GB

5.7-24-0.17 and 0.6-0.5-3-0.02 = 4.1

Wide Receivers

21. Amari Cooper, CLV vs. TEN

7.5-4.6-62-0.38 = 10.9

22. George Pickens, PIT at LV

7.6-4.5-66-0.31 = 10.9

23. Chris Godwin, TB vs. PHI

7.6-5.5-58-0.35 = 10.8

24. Garrett Wilson, NYJ vs. NE

8.0-4.6-62-0.36 = 10.7

25. DeAndre Hopkins, TEN at CLV

8.0-5.2-59-0.31 = 10.4

26. DJ Moore, CHI at KC

7.6-4.5-62-0.31 = 10.3

DJ Moore rebounded from a quiet Bears debut with seven targets and 104 yards in Week 2. His 25% target share was tied for 24th at the position, and I am projecting him for a 27.5% share in Week 3 that is 14th at the position.

27. Nico Collins, HST at JAX

7.4-4.5-64-0.29 = 10.3

Nico Collins has been lucky to rack up 226 receiving yards in two weeks. Pass-friendly game scripts have spurred rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud to 91 pass attempts, third most in football. And Collins racked up a ridiculous 88% of his Week 2 yards on five explosive plays of between 20 and 32 yards. But the third-year Texans receiver also has a 23% target share this year that is top 30 among wide receivers. I’m ready to trust him as a flex play. 

28. Michael Thomas, NO at GB

7.7-5.1-55-0.35 = 10.2

Michael Thomas has a 25% target share this season that is tied for 22nd highest at his position. Yeah, I’m thinking he’s back.

29. Brandon Aiyuk, SF vs. NYG

6.1-4.2-58-0.35 = 10.1

Brandon Aiyuk is a no-brainer start if he plays Thursday night. But mind the team’s injury report. Aiyuk suffered a shoulder injury against the Rams Sunday. And the short week threatens his availability in Week 3.

30. Tutu Atwell, LA at CIN

6.7-4.3-58-0.23 = 9.9

Rookie Rams receiver Puka Nacua has — appropriately — stolen most of the headlines. But the relative veteran Tutu Atwell has a 19% target share that is top 40 at the position, as well. And Atwell has lapped Nacua with 33% versus 22% of his yards on explosive catches and should continue to do so with his 4.39 speed.

31. Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. CAR

6.4-4.5-53-0.39 = 9.9

You can press pause on the concern I expressed after Week 1 that Tyler Lockett might slip because of an overlapping slot role with rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba. DK Metcalf injured his ribs in Week 2 and may be limited in Week 3 even assuming he plays. Meanwhile, Lockett led the Seahawks with 10 targets last Sunday and scored a pair of touchdowns.

32. Christian Kirk, JAX vs. HST

7.0-4.5-55-0.33 = 9.8

Christian Kirk didn’t have to sweat his 60% Week 1 snap share for long. Teammate Zay Jones left Week 2 with a knee injury, and Kirk jumped back to an 81% snap share and caught 11 passes for 110 yards. At least while Jones is less than 100%, Kirk can match his excellent 2022 fantasy standard.

33. Drake London, ATL at DET

7.1-4.5-54-0.33 = 9.7

The good news? Drake London caught a touchdown in Week 2 and saw a 24% target share that ranked 29th at his position. The bad news? Desmond Ridder has thrown just 50 passes in two weeks, tied for the fewest among the 30 quarterbacks who have played two full games. The Falcons will have to throw more passes when they inevitably fall behind in some games. But it’s clear this is the offense head coach Arthur Smith wants to have, and that’s bad news for London. I project the sophomore receiver for a 25.5% target share in Week 3 that is tied for 17th at his position. But that nets him just a 33rd ranking at his position and modest flex start status.

34. Zay Flowers, BLT vs. IND

6.1-4.5-52-0.30 = 9.7

Zay Flowers is more than a YAC monster. My heart considers him a WR2. But my head has him a flex play for Week 3. Flowers slipped to a 15% target share on Sunday that was tied for 59th at the position, and targets could be a small concern with the Ravens’ rushing offense and a healthy Mark Andrews. I am projecting Flowers for a 24% target share that is 24th among receivers in Week 3.

35. Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. BUF

6.3-4.0-57-0.28 = 9.5

I’m still a bit bothered by Terry McLaurin‘s turf toe injury. But the veteran has played a decent 81% of snaps the first two weeks and is on pace for a 60-catch, 700-yard season. If that’s the floor while he hopefully gets healthy, then I will risk the start in fantasy.

36. Marquise Brown, ARZ vs. DAL

7.4-4.6-50-0.31 = 9.5

Marquise Brown has a 25% target share that is tied for 22nd among receivers this season. But I don’t think that was ever the concern. Brown earns his Week 3 flex start because Cardinals quarterback Joshua Dobbs has proven he can move the ball a bit. His 5.9 yards per attempt puts him ahead of Mac Jones (5.7) and Deshaun Watson (5.6).

37. Jakobi Meyers, LV vs. PIT

6.4-4.5-51-0.35 = 9.5

Jakobi Meyers saw an 80% snap share, 10 targets and three red zone targets in Week 1. And I believe he can continue to catch more touchdowns with the Raiders than he did with the Patriots with his 6-foot-2 and 200-pound frame. If he’s back from his Week 1 concussion, then I would start him.

38. Gabe Davis, BUF at WAS

6.0-3.5-56-0.35 = 9.5

I can’t say I feel amazing about Gabe Davis‘ fantasy prospects after he declined from a 94% snap share in Week 1 to a 74% share in Week 2. But he did catch six passes for 92 yards and a touchdown, and he continues to have the highest projected yards and touchdowns per catch at his position. I like him more in DFS, but you can start Davis as a flex in full season, as well.

39. Jerry Jeudy, DEN at MIA

6.3-4.2-55-0.27 = 9.2

Jerry Jeudy returned from his hamstring injury in Week 2 but played a modest 68% of snaps. That was down from the 85%-plus standard he played when healthy in 2022. Jeudy should settle as a borderline WR2 this year, but I think he’s a borderline flex option until he demonstrates his full health.

40. Christian Watson, GB vs. NO

6.0-3.7-49-0.31 = 9.0

Speaking of hamstring injuries, Christian Watson has one and missed Weeks 1 and 2 because of it. But he returned to practice Wednesday, which bodes well for his Week 3 availability. I’m not sure how the Packers receivers will shake out when everyone is healthy. But Watson is the most talented, and Jordan Love has exceeded expectations in Weeks 1 and 2. Moderate your expectations in a difficult Week 3 Saints matchup, but you can start Watson at flex if he suits up.

41. Courtland Sutton, DEN at MIA

6.3-3.9-49-0.28 = 8.7

Courtland Sutton played similar 86% and 89% snap shares in Weeks 1 and 2 even with teammate Jerry Jeudy returning to play on Sunday. He’ll be on the field. I’m just not convinced Russell Wilson can support a pair of receivers for fantasy, especially with his surprising spreading of the ball around the first two weeks. I am projecting Sutton for a 21% target share that is tied for 33rd among receivers in Week 3, and you probably have better flex options.

42. Jahan Dotson, WAS vs. BUF

6.5-4.0-48-0.29 = 8.6

I believe in Jahan Dotson‘s talent, but he has a meager 62 yards the first two weeks, and his 19% target share barely makes the top 40 at the position. Dotson might need a better quarterback to reach his fantasy potential.

43. Adam Thielen, CAR at SEA

6.2-4.2-45-0.33 = 8.5

Adam Thielen scored a touchdown Monday night, and he’s had a knack for those in his career. I just don’t think you can count on the touchdowns with Thielen’s modest 18% target share and with a rookie quarterback in Bryce Young whose 4.2 yards per attempt is the lowest among 2023 starters.

44. Robert Woods, HST at JAX

6.9-4.3-47-0.26 = 8.4

45. Rashid Shaheed, NO at GB

4.7-3.5-50-0.22 = 8.3

46. Zay Jones, JAX vs. HST

6.3-3.9-43-0.32 = 8.2

47. Brandin Cooks, DAL at ARZ

6.0-3.8-45-0.24 = 7.8

48. Josh Reynolds, DET vs. ATL

5.1-3.3-45-0.28 = 7.8

49. Curtis Samuel, WAS vs. BUF

4.9-3.5-38-0.20 = 7.7

Tight Ends

8. Dalton Schultz, HST at JAX

6.2-4.1-40-0.35 = 8.1

Dalton Schultz has had a slow start to his fantasy season with just six catches and 38 yards in two weeks. But his 75% snap share is top 20 among tight ends, and 79 routes run are the most among tight ends. With that role, the fantasy production will come. Have faith and start him in Week 3.

9. Zach Ertz, ARZ vs. DAL

6.3-4.3-37-0.32 = 7.8

Zach Ertz‘ 31% target share isn’t just the highest among tight ends. It is miles ahead of Mark Andrews (24%) and Travis Kelce (23%) in second and third place. The Cardinals offense isn’t exciting, but Ertz’ target volume is too great to ignore. Start him in Week 3.

10. Hunter Henry, NE at NYJ

5.0-3.6-41-0.31 = 7.7

Hunter Henry has two red zone targets in as many weeks this season. That has him on pace for closer to his 14.6 average from the first five healthy seasons of his career versus the just seven red zone targets he saw in 2022, and he returns him to his prior TE1 standard. A real offensive coordinator is a beautiful thing.

11. Taysom Hill, NO at GB

1.1-0.7-6-0.05 = 7.4

Tony Jones benefitted the most from Jamaal Williams‘ Week 2 injury with a pair of touchdowns. But Taysom Hill jumped from three carries and a 14% snap share in Week 1 to nine carries and a 40% snap share in Week 2. I think Hill might be the team’s de facto No. 1 running back ahead of Jones and recovering rookie KenDre Miller in Week 3. It’s non-traditional, but I would start Hill this week.

12. David Njoku, CLV vs. TEN

4.7-3.4-38-0.25 = 7.0

David Njoku has never had more than four touchdowns in a season, and he has just one red zone target in two weeks this season and no targets within 5 yards of the end zone. His 15.5% projected target share makes him a back-end TE1, but his starter status is tenuous.

13. Sam LaPorta, DET vs. ATL

4.6-3.4-37-0.27 = 7.0

Sam LaPorta has played a very unrookielike 82% of snaps this season, but his 47% route participation rate is in the bottom third of regular tight ends with players like Chigoziem Okonkwo (50%) and George Kittle (48%) whose fantasy production often lags their talent levels. LaPorta will likely need more routes to become a TE1 in fantasy.

14. Kyle Pitts, ATL at DET

5.6-3.2-40-0.24 = 7.0

Kyle Pitts has averaged 2.0 catches per game this season. That’s less than even the 2.8 catches he averaged in his disastrous sophomore season. He’s still talented and still explosive. But I need to see some volume to start him in fantasy from now on.

15. Cole Kmet, CHI at KC

5.1-3.6-37-0.25 = 6.9

Cole Kmet was a major candidate for touchdown regression in 2023 — and he has yet to catch a touchdown this season. But the third-year tight end may well counterbalance that concern with a ramp up in his target volume. His 20% target share is tied for fourth at the position with T.J. Hockenson. And Justin Fields threw more passes in Weeks 1 and 2 than he had in any prior two-game stretch in his career. I have him as a Week 3 bench. But he’s just 0.1 projected fantasy points outside of starter status. Feel free to play him.

16. Hayden Hurst, CAR at SEA

5.0-3.8-34-0.27 = 6.9

Hayden Hurst has a 16% target share that is tied for 13th among tight ends in two weeks. He would be in the TE1 conversation. But like Adam Thielen, Hurst suffers for Bryce Young‘s so far inefficient passing offense. Keep him on your bench this week.

17. Dawson Knox, BUF at WAS

4.4-3.1-32-0.32 = 6.7

Dawson Knox has bested his touted rookie teammate Dalton Kincaid with a 77% versus a 69% snap share this season. And while he’s one target behind, he has a touchdown catch and seems likely to continue to have them. Knox’s 19 end zone targets since 2021 are second most at the position behind just Mark Andrews (22).

18. Dalton Kincaid, BUF at WAS

4.3-3.2-31-0.25 = 6.2

19. Cade Otton, TB vs. PHI

4.8-3.4-32-0.22 = 6.2

20. Tyler Higbee, LA at CIN

5.0-3.3-31-0.22 = 6.1

21. Jake Ferguson, DAL at ARZ

4.8-3.1-28-0.27 = 6.0

22. Juwan Johnson, NO at GB

4.2-2.7-31-0.23 = 5.8

23. Pat Freiermuth, PIT at LV

4.3-2.8-29-0.23 = 5.7

24. Gerald Everett, LAC at MIN

3.9-2.8-29-0.20 = 5.5

25. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN at CLV

3.8-2.6-30-0.18 = 5.3

26. Mike Gesicki, NE at NYJ

3.7-2.5-26-0.19 = 5.0

27. Durham Smythe, MIA vs. DEN

3.7-2.6-27-0.17 = 5.0

28. Kylen Granson, IND at BLT

3.7-2.7-26-0.16 = 4.9

29. Irv Smith, CIN vs. LA

4.2-2.7-23-0.20 = 4.9

30. Tyler Conklin, NYJ vs. NE

3.7-2.6-25-0.15 = 4.7

31. Noah Fant, SEA vs. CAR

3.0-2.3-24-0.16 = 4.5

32. Luke Musgrave, GB vs. NO

3.1-2.1-24-0.17 = 4.5

33. Adam Trautman, DEN at MIA

3.1-2.3-23-0.16 = 4.4