Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With so many star fantasy football players dealing with serious injuries, taking a deep dive into usage rates is going to be as important as ever.
Each week our usage report will look at one utilization stat that was noticeable and explain what that might mean for fantasy football moving forward.
Fantasy Football Usage Report Through Week 7
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: James Cook’s Snap Share Not Going to Get Much Better
James Cook made his return to the field after being held out of Week 6 with a toe injury. In his absence, Ray Davis had a career game and looked outstanding. In Cook’s return, he did find his way to the end zone, but once again, he only had a snap share of 53% (29 snaps). Since Week 2, Cook has yet to see more than 59% of the snaps in any single game. With Davis’ emergence and Ty Johnson doing quite well in limited action, I just can’t see Cook getting more touches, and I also can’t see Cook continuing his good touchdown luck considering he was consistently vultured at the goal line throughout the first two years of his career.
Miami Dolphins: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle Absolutely Desperate for Tua’s Return
With yet another game with the talents of Tyler Huntley and Tim Boyle at QB, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle saw a reprehensible combined 4 targets in Miami’s 16-10 defeat to the Colts. Somehow, Jonnu Smith, who still saw fewer snaps than starting TE Julian Hill, ended up leading the team with 7 targets.
New England Patriots: Kayshon Boutte Continues to Lead in Snaps
Even with K.J. Osborn back in the lineup, Kayshon Boutte led all Patriots receivers in snaps, seeing an 83% share (50). It’s a very crowded WR room in New England, and even though five wide receivers saw time on the field, none of them saw more than 3 targets. Again, if you’re in a deeper league, Boutte is probably someone you can target with upside. He’s already winning half of the battle, which is opportunity, so if he continues to build on his connection with Drake Maye, he could be a huge fantasy asset down the line.
New York Jets: Davante Adams Played First Game as a Jet and Took Almost All the Snaps
Amazingly, Davante Adams saw 96% of the snaps (55) in his first game as a New York Jet. He only trailed Garrett Wilson, who saw 100% of the snaps (57). In fact, he even outsnapped Allen Lazard, who saw his snaps go from 94% to just 58% (33). If you’re someone who’s counting on Lazard as a reliable WR3 or a flex, it might be time to start exploring other options.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Mark Andrews Confirmed Back… But Still Outsnapped by Isaiah Likely
Mark Andrews walked away from Monday with 2 touchdowns, but for the fifth consecutive game, he was outsnapped by Isaiah Likely Perhaps his usage will increase as we progress through the season, but I’m still very skeptical given his super low snap rates. Before he got hurt in Week 11 of the 2023 season, Andrews saw 72% of the snaps or more in all but one game. The only game he’s seen at least 72% of the snaps this season was in Week 1 against the Chiefs.
Cincinnati Bengals: Mike Gesicki Getting Outsnapped by 2 Other Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki hasn’t made much of an impact with the Bengals outside of a big Week 2 performance in Kansas City. His biggest issue is that he’s getting outsnapped by two other tight ends in Drew Sample and Erick All Jr. While Sample and All aren’t necessarily getting targeted themselves, getting only 31% of the snaps (17 snaps) like he did Week 7 isn’t going to help.
Cleveland Browns: Cedric Tillman Catapults Elijah Moore into Browns’ WR2 Spot
With Amari Cooper traded to the Browns, we saw Elijah Moore’s snap rates stay around the same that he’s seen throughout the season. Instead, Cedric Tillman appeared to take all of the snaps in Cooper’s role. In fact, Cooper had seen 82% of the snaps in Weeks 5 and 6. Against the Bengals, Tillman saw exactly 82% of the snaps (69) and made the most out of them, catching 8 balls on 12 targets for 81 yards. With the always-aggressive Jameis Winston on track to replace Deshaun Watson as the QB1, Tillman might be primed to be a big part of the Browns offense for the rest of the season.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Jaylen Warren Outsnaps Najee Harris
There were already concerns with Najee Harris’ usage getting cut down significantly when Jaylen Warren made his return in Week 6, but surprisingly, we saw Warren outsnap Harris 51% (35) to 49% (33). Harris did end up with more touches (21 to 14), but with Warren finally healthy, we might finally see him have a shot at producing at a level that justified his RB25-30 ADP before the start of the season.
AFC South
Houston Texans: Texans Hurting Without Nico Collins
The Packers gave C.J. Stroud fits throughout the day, but Stroud just hasn’t looked as comfortable in the pocket without Nico Collins on the field. Worst of all, Tank Dell saw just 4 targets and ended his day without a catch. Honorable mention goes to Dalton Schultz, who is arguably Stroud’s third option in the passing attack, with just 1 catch on 2 targets for 28 yards.
Indianapolis Colts: Josh Downs Looks Mortal with Joe Flacco on Bench
Josh Downs had 26 catches on 30 targets over three Joe Flacco starts. With Anthony Richardson back in the saddle against the Dolphins, Downs ended the day with just 1 catch on 3 targets for 3 yards. The game plan is just much different with Richardson at QB, and it doesn’t help any of the receivers in any way.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Tank Bigsby an Absolute Bell Cow Without Travis Etienne Jr.
Travis Etienne Jr. was inactive for the Jaguars’ second London game, which meant Tank Bigsby shouldered the majority of snaps at RB. With his 26 carries, he was able to get more touches than any Jaguar from the RB position since Etienne got 27 touches in Week 7 of 2023. His impressive impact might lead Doug Pederson to reconsider his RB usage when Etienne rejoins the lineup.
Tennessee Titans: Calvin Ridley Might Be Regretting Signing with the Titans
After being held without a catch Week 6 on 8 targets with only 2 targets deemed catchable, the FTN StatsHub shows us that Calvin Ridley saw very little improvement with Mason Rudolph under center. Against the Bills, Ridley caught 3 balls on 9 targets, but only 4 of those targets were deemed catchable. With the Titans likely on track for a top-five pick in next year’s draft, you have to think that they are on track to lock down one of the big name quarterbacks in that draft.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Javonte Williams Getting More and More Usage
There was some concern for Javonte Williams believers that Jaleel McLaughlin would eventually take the RB1 role from him, but it certainly looks like Williams has comfortably locked in his job for the foreseeable future. Against the Saints, Williams finished his day with 14 carries for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also saw 63% of the snaps (41), which nearly tripled McLaughlin’s 22% snap share (14).
Kansas City Chiefs: Chiefs Really Needed That WR Addition
JuJu Smith-Schuster was limited Sunday and only saw 10 snaps, so we ended up seeing a lot of Skyy Moore and Mecole Hardman. Moore in particular was just out there running in circles and hasn’t earned Patrick Mahomes‘ trust, ending his day with a season-high 47% of the snaps but no catches on 2 targets. With Rashee Rice out for the season and Justin Watson ineffective, the Chiefs going out and getting DeAndre Hopkins Wednesday morning made all the sense in the world.
Las Vegas Raiders: Alexander Mattison Clearly the RB1
Zamir White made his return to the lineup after sitting out 2 games with a groin injury. Even so, Alexander Mattison finished Week 7 with his highest snap share of the season, seeing 70% of the snaps (55) and getting 26 touches for 123 scrimmage yards. With the Raiders seemingly destined to finish toward the bottom of the AFC, it’s hard to say if Mattison’s RB1 role will be locked in for long, but considering how thin the Raiders are at WR, I expect Mattison to continue to be a workhorse.
Los Angeles Chargers: Will Dissly Leads in Catches and Targets
The Chargers had to play Monday with a pretty banged-up group of receivers. Quentin Johnston was inactive, and Ladd McConkey had to tough out a hip injury, while Simi Fehoko finished the game with the highest snap share at WR at 92% (61). Through it all, Will Dissly ended the game with the biggest performance — catching 8 balls on 11 targets for 81 yards. There was a clear connection between Dissly and Justin Herbert, and I envision Dissly being an important part of the Chargers offense moving forward.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Bye Week
New York Giants: Tyrone Tracy Jr. Still with Plenty of Usage with Devin Singletary Back
There were some concerns for those who rostered Tyrone Tracy Jr. that he would go back to his backup role with Devin Singletary back on the field, but surprisingly, Tracy still saw 67% of the snaps (39) in what ended up being a blowout loss to the Eagles. We probably still need to see how things go when we can safely say Singletary is at 100%, but I would imagine Tracy will have an edge over Singletary as we get deeper into the season as the younger back.
Philadelphia Eagles: Eagles Just Not a Passing Team
In a game where the Eagles thoroughly dominated their division rivals, Jalen Hurts only threw the ball 14 times while Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Gainwell, Will Shipley and Hurts combined for a whopping 45 carries. This obviously limited his receivers — most notably, DeVonta Smith, who ended his day with just 1 reception on 2 targets for -2 yards.
Washington Commanders: Ben Sinnott Slowly Getting More Action
Rookie TE Ben Sinnott has been the TE3 on the Commanders roster throughout the season, but this past week, he finally outsnapped John Bates after seeing 45% of the snaps (31). He also caught his first 2 passes of the season, with one of them being a touchdown. He made a very noticeable impact in the preseason, so don’t be surprised if he plays a bigger part in the offense by season’s end.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: Bye Week
Detroit Lions: Kalif Raymond Slowly Working His Way into the Game Plan
Kalif Raymond came into the season as Detroit’s “WR3,” but he has always been looked at as a role player in Ben Johnson’s offense. The last couple weeks, he’s slowly being worked into the game plan in some very pivotable roles. He came through with a huge drive in Detroit’s win against the Vikings that was capped by a 21-yard touchdown that saw Raymond send Stephon Gilmore to the ground in confusion.
Green Bay Packers: Romeo Doubs Still on the Field More Than Any Other Packers WR
Even though Romeo Doubs was drafted well after Jayden Reed and Christian Watson in most redraft and best ball leagues, we’re still seeing him get the majority of the snaps. He has outsnapped all other Packers receivers, including Reed, Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton and Malik Heath in every game he has played in. Most notably in Week 7, he ended the day with a season-high 10 targets, which led to 8 catches for 94 yards.
Minnesota Vikings: Sam Darnold Could Use T.J. Hockenson
The Lions defense gave Sam Darnold and the Vikings trouble throughout the day. Darnold actually targeted TE Johnny Mundt more in Week 7 than any other week so far this season. Unfortunately, it led to just 4 catches on 5 targets for 8 yards, including a rough drop. Mundt has never exactly been considered as a great pass catcher and was the TE3 throughout his tenure with the Rams. It’s pretty safe to say that T.J. Hockenson will be a huge upgrade to the Vikings tight end position when he returns.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts Leads in Receptions for First Time This Season
Kyle Pitts ended his Week 7 with 7 catches on 9 targets for 65 yards to lead all Falcons receivers for the first time this season. Perhaps, ironically, it also happened to take place in what can be argued as Atlanta’s worst offensive game of the season.
Carolina Panthers: Ja’Tavion Sanders Has More Catches, Yards Than All of Other Pass-Catchers Combined
QB Andy Dalton had one of the worst games of his career against a subpar Commanders defense. At the end of the day, somehow, Ja’Tavion Sanders ended with 6 catches on 6 targets for 61 yards. Those 6 catches for 61 yards were more than all other Carolina receivers combined. I’m not exactly sure what to make of it, but one thing is for sure, I would absolutely hate to have anyone not named Chuba Hubbard on my roster.
New Orleans Saints: Saints Have Virtually No Depth at WR
With both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed out with injuries, the Saints rolled out a UFL-esque receiving trio of Mason Tipton, Bub Means and Cedrick Wilson Jr. While rookie QB Spencer Rattler tried his best with what he had to work with, it was very clear he wasn’t going to get too much help from his supporting cast. With all eyes on Alvin Kamara, Kamara was only able to pick up 24 scrimmage yards on his 13 touches.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Offense in Shambles with Both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Hurt
After both of them went down in a brutal loss to the Ravens, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will be out of the lineup for the foreseeable future. Evans has a shot at returning later in the season, but Godwin is done for the season and might be done with the organization considering he’s a free agent at season’s end. Who’s going to carry the load without their two star receivers? My money’s on Jalen McMillan and Cade Otton McMillian ended the game with 3 end zone targets and trailed just Otton and Godwin with 8 overall targets. Otton ended the game with 8 catches on 10 targets for 100 yards.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: Cardinals Running a Ton of 2-WR Sets
The Cardinals passing attack is heavily centered on Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride and Michael Wilson No other Cardinals receivers ran more than 11 routes, and WR3 Greg Dortch was only on the field for 30% of the snaps (17). Even so, Harrison and Wilson are not getting much attention from QB Kyler Murray, with McBride leading in receptions and targets for the third week in a row.
Los Angeles Rams: Tutu Atwell Is Matthew Stafford’s Primary WR Until Cooper Kupp and/or Puka Nacua Returns
Jordan Whittington was held without a catch after seeing just 16% of the snaps (9) due to a lingering shoulder injury. Even though Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson led the Rams receivers in snap share with 91% of the snaps (50), no one was targeted more than Tutu Atwell, who finished with 6 catches on 9 targets for 51 yards.
San Francisco 49ers: Jordan Mason Has Highest Snap Share of the Season
Perhaps it was due to all of the injuries and illnesses that the stars of the 49ers offense, but Jordan Mason ended the day with his highest snap share of the season at 86% (54). Brock Purdy just hasn’t looked like the same quarterback without Christian McCaffrey and most of his weapons nowhere close to full-strength. Head coach Kyle Shanahan might have to rely more on Mason, who should have another week or two without McCaffrey being added to the mix.
Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet Leads Team in Snaps out of the Backfield
For the first time with Kenneth Walker III active, Zach Charbonnet outsnapped him, seeing 55% of the snaps (33). For those worried about Walker, it should be noted that he was dealing with an illness, and if anything, Charbonnet’s increased workload exposed him a bit because he was clearly not as explosive as Walker, who still ended the day with 16 touches for 93 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns.
