Week 11 Quick Reads: Deep Cuts

You gotta be able to get the ball deep sometimes. Man does not live on checkdowns and short crosses alone.

Brock Purdy got the ball deep on the way to being this week’s top quarterback by DYAR.

Purdy currently leads the league in DVOA on deep passes, defined in the league play-by-play as passes of 16 or more air yards. The only quarterback with more DYAR is C.J. Stroud, and that’s one of the things that has Stroud near the top of the league in DYAR for the season.

Let’s look at the best and worst quarterbacks and receivers on deep passes this season. First, here are the top seven quarterbacks in DYAR on deep passes. I cut the list at seven because there’s a big gap between Tua Tagovailoa and the next couple quarterbacks.

Top QBs on Deep Passes, Weeks 1-11 2023
Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Pass
C.J. Stroud	HOU	687	133.2%	73
Brock Purdy	SF	615	154.5%	59
Trevor Lawrence	JAX	571	130.5%	67
Kirk Cousins	MIN	552	136.5%	59
Jared Goff	DET	543	141.9%	53
Dak Prescott	DAL	540	132.1%	59
Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	527	114.6%	70

Flip things around, and the worst quarterback on deep passes this year is Mac Jones. It’s not really close when it comes to quarterbacks with at least 50 deep attempts. Here are the worst quarterbacks with at least 30 deep attempts this season:

Worst QBs on Deep Passes, Weeks 1-11 2023
Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Pass
Mac Jones	NE	-87	-38.2%	50
Ryan Tannehill	TEN	-9	-14.9%	36
Bryce Young	CAR	24	-2.4%	44
Joe Burrow	CIN	39	1.1%	50
Jimmy Garoppolo	LV	61	16.1%	34
Gardner Minshew	IND	127	33.0%	48
Zach Wilson	NYJ	144	31.4%	54

You can see the effect of Joe Burrow‘s injury in there as well. A reminder that you can find all the DYAR and DVOA for qualifying quarterbacks on both short and deep passes on a page in the Premium Splits workbook that is available from the DVOA dropdown menu if you are an FTN Stats+ or Fantasy+ subscriber.

Now, let’s look at the best and worst receivers on deep passes this year. I’m only going to include wide receivers since tight ends are judged with a different baseline. You probably know who is No. 1, but numbers two and five are a bit of a surprise. So is number eight, who has been phenomenal with a small sample size.

Best WRs on Deep Passes, Weeks 1-11 2023
Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Pass
Tyreek Hill	MIA	316	105.7%	35
Jordan Addison	MIN	208	108.8%	24
CeeDee Lamb	DAL	177	79.4%	25
Amari Cooper	CLE	177	58.3%	33
Keenan Allen	LAC	168	76.0%	25
Brandon Aiyuk	SF	161	71.8%	25
A.J. Brown (pre-MNF)	PHI	161	58.6%	28
Noah Brown	HOU	160	169.2%	11

That Noah Brown total includes five different deep receptions last week against the Bengals. Brown has caught 9 of 10 deep targets with an additional 29-yard gain on DPI.

Finally, here are the players with the lowest DYAR on deep passes. It’s hard to call them “the worst” since a lot of this has to do with the quarterbacks, but OK, sure, these are the worst wide receivers on deep passes this year.

~~Worst WRs~~ Lowest DYAR on Deep Passes, Weeks 1-11 2023
Player	Team	DYAR	DVOA	Pass
Tee Higgins	CIN	-52	-74.7%	11
Marquise Goodwin	CLE	-49	-101.8%	8
Chris Olave	NO	-47	-30.6%	34
Van Jefferson	2TM	-46	-71.6%	10
Jonathan Mingo	CAR	-46	-59.8%	12
Kendrick Bourne	NE	-42	-53.6%	12
Rashod Bateman	BAL	-41	-76.8%	8
Michael Pittman	IND	-37	-40.2%	17

And now, here’s the best and worst players of Week 11 according to DYAR stats:

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
1.	Brock Purdy	SF	21/25	333	3	0	4	181	170	11	TB
Purdy was phenomenal on both first and second down — he averaged 16.8 net yards per pass on first downs — but only converted two out of six pass attempts on third down, including a failed completion and an 11-yard sack. Purdy moved into first place in passing DYAR for the season with this game.
2.	Josh Allen	BUF	20/32	275	3	1	1	162	162	0	NYJ
The opponent adjustment for playing the Jets bumps Allen’s passing value from 108 YAR to 162 DYAR. Allen benefited from a league-high 9.5 average yards after the catch this week.
3.	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	24/32	262	2	0	1	137	125	12	TEN
The opponent adjustment for playing the Titans drops Lawrence’s passing value from 171 YAR (which would lead the league this week) to 125 DYAR. Lawrence converted five of eight opportunities on third or fourth down and also had two DPIs on third downs.
4.	Lamar Jackson	BAL	16/26	264	2	0	3	134	139	-4	CIN
Jackson led all quarterbacks with an average depth of target of 12.9 yards this week. Yet he was also near the top of the league with an average 9.4 yards after the catch as well.
5.	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	28/39	325	2	1	1	82	95	-13	LV
6.	Russell Wilson	DEN	27/35	259	1	0	2	74	70	4	MIN
Wilson was second in the NFL for Week 11 with 91 passing DYAR on first downs (10.3 net yards per pass) but also had -47 passing DYAR on third downs (2.4 net yards per pass, one conversion out of 10 dropbacks).
7.	Dak Prescott	DAL	25/38	189	2	0	0	57	60	-3	CAR
8.	Joe Burrow	CIN	11/17	101	1	0	2	57	54	3	BAL
Burrow led all quarterbacks with 43 passing DYAR in the red zone this week: simply three straight passes to Joe Mixon in the third quarter for 9 yards, 9 yards (after a penalty moved things back), and a 4-yard touchdown.
9.	Justin Herbert	LAC	21/36	260	2	0	2	51	40	11	GB
Herbert gained 74 yards on six scrambles, but his rushing DYAR also includes an aborted snap. Overall, Herbert didn’t get a lot of help from his receivers, with some pretty bad Chargers drops on Sunday afternoon.
10.	Justin Fields	CHI	16/23	169	1	0	2	51	29	21	DET
Fields had 17 carries for 105 yards: 50 yards on four scrambles and 55 yards on 13 designed runs. However, he failed to convert on two third-and-short opportunities. Fields got just 2.9 average yards after the catch from his receivers, ahead of only Tim Boyle this week.
11.	Will Levis	TEN	13/17	158	2	0	2	46	58	-13	JAX
Levis was worth -41 DYAR passing in the first half of the game (1.9 net yards per pass) and 99 DYAR passing in the second half of the game (17.1 net yards per pass). He converted only one of six opportunities on third down with two sacks and two failed completions.
12.	Jake Browning	CIN	8/14	68	1	0	3	44	30	14	BAL
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
13.	Jordan Love	GB	28/40	322	2	0	3	41	61	-20	LAC
Love had -51 passing DYAR on first downs (4.4 net yards per pass).
14.	Matthew Stafford	LAR	17/31	190	1	1	1	39	40	-1	SEA
15.	Geno Smith	SEA	23/33	233	1	0	2	33	33	0	LAR
Smith had 63 pass DYAR in the first half and -30 pass DYAR in the second half. For those curious, Drew Lock had -30 DYAR on his two drives.
16.	Kenny Pickett	PIT	15/28	106	0	0	3	11	-1	12	CLE
There is a gigantic opponent adjustment for playing the Browns this year, with Pickett going from -85 pass YAR to -1 pass DYAR.
17.	Tommy DeVito	NYG	18/26	246	3	0	9	8	10	-3	WAS
DiVito lost -123 DYAR on his nine sacks and gained 82 DYAR on his three touchdown passes.
18.	Baker Mayfield	TB	29/45	246	1	1	4	6	6	0	SF
Mayfield had -60 DYAR in the red zone this week, completing three of eight attempts for 11 yards with a touchdown but also an interception in the fourth quarter.
19.	Kyler Murray	ARI	20/30	214	1	1	3	-8	-34	26	HOU
Murray gained 43 yards on four scrambles, with two first downs including a 22-yard scramble that was shortened by an offensive holding penalty downfield.
MNF	Patrick Mahomes	KC	25/42	177	2	1	1	-26	-36	11	PHI
20.	Joshua Dobbs	MIN	21/32	221	1	1	2	-28	8	-36	DEN
Dobbs has -36 rushing DYAR because he was charged with two rushing fumbles, one on a bad snap and one on that weird Wildcat/”not a tush push” third-and-short pitch from T.J. Hockenson. Dobbs had 71 passing DYAR in the first half of the game and then -63 passing DYAR in the second half.
21.	C.J. Stroud	HOU	27/37	336	2	3	3	-28	-28	0	ARI
Stroud takes a bit of an adjustment hit from playing the Cardinals, going from 1 YAR to -28 DYAR. Houston receivers only averaged 3.1 yards after the catch this week. Stroud also went from 97 passing DYAR in the first half of the game (10.0 net yards per pass, one pick) to -125 passing DYAR in the second half (3.9 net yards per pass, two picks). He threw two of his three interceptions in the red zone.
22.	Dorian Thompson-Robinson	CLE	24/41	165	0	1	1	-35	-39	4	PIT
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
MNF	Jalen Hurts	PHI	14/22	150	0	1	5	-34	-49	14	KC
23.	Jared Goff	DET	23/35	236	2	3	2	-41	-41	0	CHI
This was Goff’s worst game of the year. Based on current opponent adjustments, it is his only game with negative DYAR, although he’s at exactly 0 DYAR for Week 7’s loss to Baltimore thanks to heavy opponent adjustments.
24.	Sam Howell	WAS	31/45	255	1	3	4	-62	-85	22	NYG
Howell gained 35 yards on three scrambles, with a touchdown and two first downs. He earned a league-low (for the week) -66 DYAR on deep passes (16 or more air yards).
25.	Zach Wilson	NYJ	7/15	81	1	1	5	-86	-72	-15	BUF
On third down, Wilson took two sacks and threw an incomplete pass. He did convert one third down with a DPI, though.
26.	Bryce Young	CAR	16/29	123	1	1	7	-104	-103	-1	DAL
Young had as many sacks as first downs, with seven of each.
27.	Aidan O’Connell	LV	24/41	271	1	3	2	-109	-110	1	MIA
O’Connell loses a lot of value — probably too much, to be honest — for the Jaelen Phillips interception behind the line of scrimmage on fourth-and-6 with 3:12 left. Picks behind the line of scrimmage like that often find themselves returned for touchdowns, although this one was not. All three of O’Connell’s interceptions were listed as passes in the middle of the field according to the play-by-play.
28.	Tim Boyle	NYJ	7/14	33	0	1	1	-112	-113	2	BUF
Boyle averaged 1.5 net yards per pass against the Bills. Reports say Boyle will start over Zach Wilson for the Black Friday game against Miami. When those reports came out, the line moved 1.5 points towards Miami.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Jaylen Warren	PIT	9	129	1	3/3	16	0	66	57	9	CLE
Alexander Mattison is listed below as the lowest value running back of the week but that’s because of opponent adjustments. Without adjustments, the lowest YAR belonged to Najee Harris. There’s a huge difference between Warren and Harris this year. For the season, Warren has 143 rushing DYAR and Harris has just 22 rushing DYAR with more than 50% more carries.
2.	David Montgomery	DET	12	76	1	2/2	22	0	58	47	12	CHI
Montgomery had only two carries of less than 3 yards, and one of those was a 1-yard touchdown.
3.	Jahmyr Gibbs	DET	8	36	1	6/6	59	0	52	23	29	CHI
Gibbs gained at least 6 yards on all six of his receptions, and only one of those receptions came behind the line of scrimmage. He had three receiving first downs and three rushing first downs.
4.	Saquon Barkley	NYG	14	83	0	4/5	57	2	48	5	43	WAS
Despite 83 yards on the ground, Barkley gets most of his value from receiving this week, including two touchdowns. Both Barkley’s 24-yard touchdown and his 21-yard gain on third-and-10 in the first quarter were deep routes, over 20 yards downfield with no yards after the catch. On the ground, Barkley had runs of 31 and 36 yards but also was taken down behind the line of scrimmage four times.
5.	Christian McCaffrey	SF	21	78	0	5/5	25	1	47	32	15	TB
McCaffrey has a surprisingly strong opponent adjustment against the Tampa Bay run defense, going from -3 YAR to 32 DYAR. (The Bucs are currently fourth in DVOA against the run.) McCaffrey would be even higher in DYAR except he failed to convert on both a fourth-and-1 and a third-and-2.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Jaylen Warren	PIT	9	129	1	3/3	16	0	66	57	9	CLE
2.	David Montgomery	DET	12	76	1	2/2	22	0	58	47	12	CHI
3.	Christian McCaffrey	SF	21	78	0	5/5	25	1	47	32	15	TB
4.	Gus Edwards	BAL	12	62	2	2/2	8	0	27	26	1	CIN
Opponent adjustments knock Edwards from 41 rushing YAR to 26 DYAR. Edwards had a 75% success rate on Thursday night.
5.	James Cook	BUF	17	73	0	3/4	29	1	46	25	21	NYJ
Cook had at least 5 yards on eight out of 17 carries against a strong Jets run defense.

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total and Rushing)

Player

Team

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Total
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

Alexander Mattison

MIN

1/2

-1

-50

-37

-14

DEN

Mattison takes a huge hit in the opponent adjustments because the Broncos run defense was so poor early in the year, but he did manage a 50% success rate. He loses a lot of value for a lost fumble in the third quarter.

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Nathaniel “Tank” Dell	HOU	8	10	149	18.6	1	63	ARI
All eight of Dell’s catches converted for a new set of downs, including his 18-yard catch on third-and-17 and this 40-yard touchdown in the second quarter.
2.	Brandon Aiyuk	SF	5	6	156	31.2	1	63	TB
Aiyuk leads all qualified wide receivers in DVOA this season, and is third in DYAR behind A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill. He had the 76-yard touchdown and another 37-yard gain yesterday along with three other catches for double-digit yards.
3.	Calvin Ridley	JAX	7	9	103	14.7	2	59	TEN
Ridley’s DYAR includes 13 DYAR for an 18-yard carry. He also had a 9-yard gain on DPI in the first quarter to go with his seven catches and two touchdowns.
4.	Khalil Shakir	BUF	3	4	115	38.3	1	51	NYJ

5.	George Kittle	SF	8	9	89	11.1	1	45	TB
Kittle leads all qualifying tight ends in both DVOA and DYAR this year. Five first downs this week (including the touchdown).

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	2	8	9	4.5	0	-70	BUF
Wilson had a lost fumble on a 5-yard catch and then a 4-yard catch on third-and-5, and that was it. He was also targeted on an interception, but he doesn’t get dinged for that in DYAR. Zach Wilson didn’t find him for any completions, as both of his complete passes came from Tim Boyle. Wilson is now second to last in DYAR on the season. Definitely an issue where DYAR does not fully separate receivers from the quarterbacks! (Last in DYAR: Panthers rookie Jonathan Mingo.)

Week 11 Quick Reads: Deep Cuts

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