SuperDraft NFL breakdown for Week 8

Welcome to the weekly breakdown for SuperDraft DFS Multiplier contests. 

Here’s a quick primer and strategy guide.

Each week, I’ll provide a slate overview and recommended plays at each position.

Week 7 Recap

Each week, I’ll kick things off by reviewing the winning lineups of SuperDraft’s largest GPP, the Red Zone, as well as the $108 Gunslinger. 

For Week 8, the Red Zone is a $25 entry with a field of 9,200 and a first place payout of $40,000. The Red Zone pays $18,000 to second, $10,000 to first and pays out 21.8% of the field (up to 2008th place). Folks can enter up to 150 entries in the contest.

This week’s Gunslinger is $108 to enter with just 150 entries (max of four per person) with a $3,000 first place payout. It pays up to 35 spots (23.3% of field) where places 22-35 get $200 back.

Wanted to also highlight another large-field GPP with a reasonable entry fee of $12 called the Hail Mary. This one can also be entered up to 150 times and pays out $10,000 (1st), $5,000 (2nd), $3,000 (3rd) all the way down to 1,145th place in a field of 4,865 (23.5%). 

There aren’t too many common players in the two GPP-winning lineups but each one featured a reasonably priced and semi chalky Tua Tagovailoa (1.55x) with a Miami pass-catcher (Mike Gesicki in the Red Zone, Jaylen Waddle on the Gunslinger). You may recall from last week’s piece that I was a tad hesitant overloading on Tua but I also did not expect for him to only grace 15 percent of Red Zone entries. 

The big differentiator for many teams that saw green was Bengals’ rookie wideout Ja’Marr Chase who found paydirt for his fourth consecutive game. With his 201-yard performance last Sunday, Chase now averages 107 receiving yards per game, leads the league in yards per reception (21.5) and has more yards through his first seven games than any other wideout in NFL history. 

Note, once again, the large differential between the Red Zone winner (251.22 points) and Gunslinger winner (213.59). Both lineups landed in that average multiplier sweet spot between 1.4x and 1.6x once again. The Gunslinger winner’s lineup was much chalkier (23.6%) than the Red Zone’s (16.6%). The only time that hasn’t been the case this season was in Week 5 when many key players on the Gunslinger’s lineup (Tom Brady, Nick Chubb, Chase, Rondale Moore) came in under 10% rostered and did not have an over- 50% Alexander Mattison.

Week 8 Preview

A key change you may notice in the Week 8 multipliers are the tight ends, who have all been significantly lowered. Many of the guys such as T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant and Rob Gronkowski who we were used to getting in the 1.4x-1.6x range are now closer to 1x-1.2x. This could force a higher roster percentage onto guys like Ricky Seals-Jones (1.75x) and Dan Arnold (2x) who were not adjusted with the field. The most startling multiplier reduction is on Atlanta’s Kyle Pitts who goes from 1.6x last week to 1x this week. This reduction will likely cause him to find his way onto no more than 10% of rosters in the Red Zone.

There are only two teams on bye, so the Week 8 slate has 12 games. Just two games with a Vegas total higher than 50 (TEN-IND, TB-NO), though neither game tops 51 projected points. It’s quite possible that the top 1% of Red Zone lineups total up in the 230 to 250 total points range instead of the 280-300 range we saw in Weeks 5 and 6. As far as pace is concerned, the Buccaneers-Saints and Dolphins-Bills stand out as fast-paced matchups while the 49ers-Bears and Jaguars-Seahawks games might be more run-heavy. That JAX-SEA game does have some appealing offensive options, and it’s a game I’d be betting the over on at its current 43-point mark. James Robinson truly sticks out at his 1.5x tag and we should always be attentive to offenses in good spots coming off a bye week. 

Quarterbacks

Cash 

• Jalen Hurts (1.2x), Philadelphia Eagles

Any game with a tight point spread and semi-high total like the Eagles-Lions game (-3 PHI, 47.5) should have our attention — especially when these teams have suspect defenses that can be taken advantage of. Enter Jalen Hurts, coming off his worst game of the season, yet one where he still managed to throw two TD passes with no interceptions and rush for 61 yards. Hurts has now topped 20 SD base points in every game this season. His 26.3 SD base points per game ranks second on this slate behind only Tom Brady (27.2). The Lions rank 27th in pass DVOA and have allowed 15 pass TDs through seven games. A 25-point projection in what we expect to be a tight, competitive contest is a reasonable one and could land him as the top raw points QB on the slate. We should expect RB Kenneth Gainwell soaking up the highest roster percentage among Eagles’ players which could limit Hurts’ range to around 8-12%. If making just one lineup, he is definitely one to consider.

• Josh Allen (1x), Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen will be a popular option despite his baseline multiplier, especially since the Bills carry a slate-high 32-point implied total. The Bills crushed the Dolphins 35-0 back in Week 2 where very little was required from Allen, as he only threw for 179 yards and ended up with around 17 base points. Though the well-rested Bills should handily defeat the Fins and are two-touchdown favorites, expect Allen to have his hand in most of points on Sunday and end up closer to 25-30 base points. 

• Matthew Stafford (1.1x), Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford doesn’t really need a close game to accumulate points since the Rams’ passing game crushes so hard. Stafford ended up with 26.34 points in Week 1 (321-3-0) in a 34-14 win against the Bears in Week 1 and 26.24 points (251-4-1) in a 38-11 bludgeoning of the New York Giants in Week 6. The Texans rank 12th in pass DVOA defense but this mark is skewed because of how easy this team is to run against (30th in run DVOA defense, most rush TDs allowed – 12). It could very well be a Darrell Henderson game, but anyone building multiple lineups would be foolish to ignore the Stafford-Cooper Kupp connection. My primary hesitancy is that I’m much less confident in the Texans keeping up in similar fashion as the Lions last week who had this game marked on their calendars with QB Jared Goff facing his former team.

GPP and MME

• Sam Darnold (1.45x), Carolina Panthers

Should we care that Sam Darnold has managed just 165 yards per game with a 1:5 TD:INT ratio over his last three starts when assessing his Week 8 matchup? Perhaps a little bit. His offensive line disappointed him greatly over that span, allowing Darnold to be sacked 10 times. Darnold has been spending much of the week “getting back to basics,” reviewing tapes of his early-season success and working on footwork and overall mechanics. Sometimes a reset can be helpful and a matchup against the Falcons (who allowed Tua Tagovailoa to dominate last week) surely doesn’t hurt. Panthers are three-point underdogs in Atlanta’s fast-track and it’s a great bounce-back spot for Darnold and this pass offense. The 1.45x multiplier is generous and I like his prospects against the Falcons, hence Darnold with DJ Moore will be one of my favorite pairings on SuperDraft this week.

• Teddy Bridgewater (1.5x), Denver Broncos
• Mike White (1.85x), New York Jets
• Trevor Lawrence (1.45x), Jacksonville Jaguars

Teddy Bridgewater wasn’t at full strength in that abysmal outing against the Browns last Thursday, but a date with the league-worst Washington secondary and the impending return of wideout Jerry Jeudy makes Teddy a fantastic play at 1.5x. Jets’ rookie Mike White has two things going for him: a ridiculously high multiplier and probable gamescript that might lead to 40-plus pass attempts. It’s possible White gets there on volume alone, but I doubt I employ him on my primary lineups. Trevor Lawrence off a bye has some intrigue but prioritizing RB James Robinson makes a bit more sense. 

One guy not listed but would fall in next on the projections list is Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill, who I’d consider pairing with A.J. Brown on non-Derrick Henry teams. Tannehill’s multiplier is set at 1.3x. If building 50-plus lineups in the Red Zone or Hail Mary, definitely consider light exposure on Carson Wentz (1.4x) since the Colts are facing a Titans’ secondary allowing the sixth most fantasy points to enemy QBs and the most fantasy points to receivers (hello, Michael Pittman).

Favorite plays

• Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
• Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers
• Teddy Bridgewater, Denver Broncos
• Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Running Backs

Cash

• James Robinson (1.5x), Jacksonville Jaguars

Were it Russell Wilson starting and not Geno Smith, I’d be more worried about a negative gamescript for the Jaguars. Not to mention, this Vegas total would be closer to 50 points. The Seahawks allow the third-most fantasy points to running backs (23.9) as well as the most receiving yards to them as well (70.7 per game). The Jaguars are coming off a bye, and Robinson has averaged 17 rush attempts and 97 rushing yards per game over his last four, scoring five times over that span. Expect another heavy workload this week and one of the highest raw points guys at the position this week. His generous 1.5x multiplier is just icing on the cake.

• Joe Mixon (1.35x), Cincinnati Bengals

The Jets were blasted for 54 points last week with nearly half of those points coming from rushing scores (two apiece for Damien Harris and J.J. Taylor). Per DVOA, they rank 27th against the run and 28th against the pass. The Jets allow the most fantasy points to the position (29.7) as well as the most receptions to running backs (52). The only two concerns with Mixon: the touchdowns coming from the passing game and a blowout which could lead to more late-game carries from backup Samaje Perine. Otherwise, the stage is set for 15-plus carries, a few targets and a possible some personal trips to the red zone for Mr. Mixon.

• D’Andre Swift (1.45x), Detroit Lions
• Najee Harris (1.4x), Pittsburgh Steelers
• Darrell Henderson (1.3x), Los Angeles Rams

Tough to choose between these three, but D’Andre Swift gets the nod because of the matchup as the Eagles allow the fifth-most fantasy points (23.6) to running backs. Swift leads all running backs in targets (52), receptions (42) and receiving yards (391). Though he splits carries with Jamaal Williams, Swift has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games and has topped 20 base points in five of seven games. 

Najee Harris averages over 15 base points, which is the fourth-highest per-game rate behind Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler and Cordarrelle Patterson. Harris is second among running backs in targets (46), receptions (28) and has topped 100 rushing and receiving yards at least once this season. This tilt with the Browns should be a slow-paced affair where Harris may not have much per-play efficiency but could be one of the highest scorers on the slate on volume alone. One of the best bets on the slate to find the end zone as well.

Some SuperDraft players might be off the Hendo Train following last week’s subpar performance, but it would be a mistake to exclude him from player pools entirely. Henderson has yet to top 100 rushing yards this season and if there was ever a time for him to hit it, it would be Week 8 against the Texans. Don’t expect the Texans to hang with the Rams in this one and for Henderson to be a contender for optimal lineups.

GPP and MME

• Kenneth Gainwell (1.75x), Philadelphia Eagles

With Miles Sanders likely out with an ankle injury, look for the Eagles to split the backfield workload between veteran Boston Scott and rookie Kenneth Gainwell. Scott may see more of the early down work but Gainwell is the better target due to his passing-game participation and explosiveness. In the game Sanders played, Gainwell operated as the second back, outsnapping Scott 34.4% to 6.4%. Gainwell has seen at least three targets in six of seven games (eight targets twice). Expect him to run at least 25 routes and to flirt with optimal lineup builds at his 1.75x multiplier.

• Derrick Henry (1x), Tennessee Titans
• Austin Ekeler (1.3x), Los Angeles Chargers
• Alvin Kamara (1.2x), New Orleans Saints
• Damien Harris (1.45x), New England Patriots
• Jonathan Taylor (1.25x), Indianapolis Colts

There’s no question Derrick Henry is the best running back in fantasy. The questions for us will always be how many points he can score since he’s at the lowest multiplier rate and how will he fare against similar voluminous backs with midrange multipliers. If Henry goes 20-130-1, 2-20 that’s just 24 base points, which won’t be enough for winning lineups when other backs with higher multipliers could top 30. We should never ignore Henry entirely but need to assess him in the context of all viable running backs on the slate with our multiplier inputs.

Cases can be made for Alvin Kamara and Jonathan Taylor. But I’ll roster Austin Ekeler ahead of them this week, even in a tough on-paper matchup against a Patriots’ run defense that has allowed just four running scores and 3.8 yards per carry to opposing backs. New England has allowed the fourth most receiving yards (416) and eighth most receptions (46) to enemy backs. The Chargers have been game-planning two weeks for this matchup and Ekeler will be a key factor in the attack. He didn’t practice on Thursday dealing with a hip injury, so I’d want to make sure he gets a full practice in Friday. On the other side of this one, Damien Harris is the Pats’ lead dog against a defense that lets opposing teams run on them. They’ve allowed a league-high 162.5 rushing yards per game, which is nearly 20 more yards per game than the next-highest defense (Texans – 145.7).

Favorite Plays

• James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
• Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles
• Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams
• Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
• D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions

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Wide Receivers

Cash

• Stefon Diggs (1.2x), Buffalo Bills

Stefon Diggs had just two touchdowns on the season so far, and no wideout in the league feels more due. Any multiplier more than the standard 1x for Diggs in this matchup should be considered a gift and no sane human should ever reject gifts. Seven receptions, 100-plus yards and at least one score is in the cards this Sunday.

• A.J. Brown (1.4x), Tennessee Titans

A.J. Brown was chalky in that Week 3 matchup against these Colts when he got hurt in the first quarter but he’s back to his old self with 15 receptions and 224 total yards over his last two games. Last November, Brown dropped a 4-98-1 line on them.

• Deebo Samuel (1.3x), San Francisco 49ers

Deebo Samuel was limited in Thursday’s practice (calf) but should be fine for the game. He’s fourth among wideouts in receiving yards (648), with two outings of 150-plus. Deebo is averaging nearly nine yards after the catch and has 33% of the team’s target share through seven weeks.

• Chris Godwin (1.4x), Tampa Bay Buccaneers

They don’t all call me the Bucs’ TD Whisperer, but I did feature Mike Evans as my top play on Sunday’s SuperDraft livestream. It’s never as simple as us switching from Evans Week to Godwin Week, but no Antonio Brown in the mix truncates Tom Brady’s target tree. But in Week 8, give me Godwin, who lines up against Saints’ corner C.J. Gardner-Johnson and his bottom 20% PFF grade ranking.

• Michael Pittman (1.65x), Indianapolis Colts
• Jaylen Waddle (1.6x), Miami Dolphins

Michael Pittman is the primary target for Carson Wentz in a game with one of the highest totals against a defense that allows the most fantasy points per game (16.8) to wideouts on the left side of the field (per FTN’s Advanced DVP Wide Receivers Tool). Pittman plays both sides of the perimeter (36% left, 40% right) and a bit in the slot as well. 

GPP and MME

• Calvin Ridley (1.25x), Atlanta Falcons
• DJ Moore (1.35x), Carolina Panthers
• Mike Williams (1.45x), Los Angeles Chargers
• Laviska Shenault (1.65x), Jacksonville Jaguars
• Brandin Cooks (1.5x), Houston Texans
• DK Metcalf (1.25x), Seattle Seahawks
• Diontae Johnson (1.4x), Pittsburgh Steelers
• Courtland Sutton (1.4x), Denver Broncos

I’m buying low on Calvin Ridley yet again but will mostly use him as my runback WR on Sam Darnold–DJ Moore pairings and Panthers’ stacks. Speaking of Moore, I may be low on my projection here. The primary concern is that Robby Anderson has been averaging nearly 10 targets per game over his last four and is well overdue for a blowup outing. 

Laviska Shenault will be on at least 15% of Red Zone GPP rosters because of the multiplier and fantastic matchup against Seattle slot corner Ugo Amadi who grades out as a bottom-five slot corner, right behind Saints’ Gardner-Johnson. 

I really mostly joke when discussing revenge games, but Brandin Cooks should bounce back after last week’s dud with a healthy target share and solid outing against his former team, the Rams. 

Courtland Sutton has a gorgeous matchup, but Jerry Jeudy returning might eat into some of his target share. Jaylen Waddle is a good option yet again at the gracious multiplier and as the bringback in a Bills stack.

Lastly, don’t sleep on DK Metcalf and Diontae Johnson as one-offs when building multiple lineups.

Favorite Plays

• Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
• A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans
• DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers
• Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons
• Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans
• Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers

Tight Ends

Cash

• T.J. Hockenson (1.15x), Detroit Lions
• Dan Arnold (2x), Jacksonville Jaguars
• Rob Gronkowski (1.15x), Tampa Bay Buccaneers

All things being equal, T.J. Hockenson would be my favorite raw-points guy but it’s hard not to give a hard look to Dan Arnold because of the full 2x multiplier. I’ll be mixing Arnold in on some Trevor Lawrence stacks and heavily in lineups where most of my receivers are in the low (1.2-1.4x) range. If we know that Rob Gronkowski is playing and won’t be limited, he should soar in popularity in both cash and GPP contests. Gronk caught 16 balls and scored four touchdowns in the three games he’s played this season.

GPP and MME

• Hunter Henry (1.45x), New England Patriots
• Kyle Pitts (1x), Atlanta Falcons
• Pat Freiermuth (2x), Pittsburgh Steelers
• Tyler Higbee (1.35x), Los Angeles Rams
• Noah Fant (1.2x), Denver Broncos

Though Arnold is tempting at his multiplier, it will be Hunter Henry who graces my primary lineups. The multiplier is reasonable, the matchup is revenge-y (against his former team) and he’s Mac Jones’ primary red zone weapon. The 6-foot-5, 250-pound tight end has found paydirt in four consecutive games. I recommend him primarily as a one-off or in a correlation combo with any of Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams or Keenan Allen. Pat Freiermuth deserves a bit of sprinkling in as the rookie might be utilized even more coming out of Pittsbugh’s bye. His snap rate share over Eric Ebron is slight (41% to 47%) but he has 18 receptions to Ebron’s seven and caught seven-of-seven targets for 58 yards in Week 6. Finally, Tyler Higbee is a valuable piece of a Rams’ stack as he’s on the field quite frequently, leading all tight ends with a 91% snap rate. The Texans have allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.

Favorite Plays 

• Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
• Dan Arnold, Jacksonville Jaguars
• T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions
• Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams

Favorite Game Stacks and Secondary Correlations

Panthers/Falcons

• Sam Darnold + DJ Moore (and/or Robby Anderson) + Calvin Ridley

Bills/Dolphins

• Josh Allen + Stefon Diggs + Jaylen Waddle

Eagles/Lions

• Jalen Hurts + Kenneth Gainwell + D’Andre Swift

Rams/Texans

• Darrell Henderson + Brandin Cooks
• Matthew Stafford + Cooper Kupp + Tyler Higbee + Brandin Cooks

Jaguars/Seahawks

• James Robinson + DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett
• Trevor Lawrence + Laviska Shenault + DK Metcalf

Titans/Colts

• A.J. Brown + Michael Pittman

Patriots/Chargers

• Hunter Henry + Austin Ekeler or Mike Williams

Washington/Broncos

• Teddy Bridgewater + Courtland Sutton + Terry McLaurin

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