Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the Week 16 Usage Report. This piece is designed to give you a glimpse of both rushing shares and usage rates for running backs, wide receivers, and occasionally tight ends. It will help you understand how often a player is involved in his team’s game plan and if those players are susceptible to being faded or emphasized during various game scripts.
(To see more, check out our Weekly Rushing Share and Usage by Situation pages.)
Definitions:
tgt_big_lead — Target share when team is leading by 14+ points
tgt_leading — Target share when team is leading by 9-13 points
tgt_one_score — Target share when team is in a one score game
tgt_down — Target share when team is down by 9-13 points
tgt_down_big — Target share when team is down by 14+ points
Weekly Rushing Share
Tier 1 – Teams with Situations in Flux
Detroit Lions
D’Andre Swift has not played since Week 12 after suffering an AC joint sprain but practiced in a limited capacity for the first Wednesday. Jamaal Williams has not played since Week 13 but has been activated from the Reserve/COVID-19 List and should return this week. Craig Reynolds has been excellent in his relief role, so it remains to be seen how this backfield will distribute touches.
Miami Dolphins
Veteran Duke Johnson had himself a career day in Week 15 and will likely be part of the offensive game plan moving forward. Myles Gaskin is back from a COVID-19 absence and should reacclimate himself quickly. Salvon Ahmed and Phillip Lindsay could also factor in, which makes this a messy backfield for fantasy managers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Leonard Fournette suffered a hamstring injury in his latest game and did not return. He was not at practice Wednesday and is expected to miss a game or two. The Buccaneers will turn to Ronald Jones, and they also signed Le’Veon Bell to bolster the depth chart.
Tier 2 – Teams with Situations worth Monitoring
Cleveland Browns
Kareem Hunt has only played in two games since Week 6 and is unlikely to play in Week 16. Nick Chubb remains a workhorse option at the position and should receive the vast majority of the touches out of the backfield. D’Ernest Johnson is nothing more than a handcuff at this stage of the season.
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler is currently dealing with an ankle injury, which allowed Justin Jackson to out-touch him 13-12 in Week 15. Ekeler tested positive for COVID-19, which puts his availability for Week 16 in jeopardy. Jackson would likely slide into the RB1 role for the Chargers.
New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson did not practice Wednesday due to an illness, and Damien Harris remains limited with his hamstring injury. When healthy, both running backs have had value, and Stevenson has been exceptional with lead-back duties. Keep an eye on this depth chart in the coming days.
San Francisco 49ers
Elijah Mitchell will miss his third straight game Thursday, which opens the door for Jeff Wilson to have another solid performance. Wilson turned 21 carries into 110 yards and a score in Week 15 and has historically done well when given the RB1 role.
Tier 3 – Teams with Stable Situations
Arizona Cardinals
James Conner posted his worst fantasy total since Week 7, and it happened in the same week that Chase Edmonds returned from injury. These two could cannibalize the value of the other, but Edmonds does offer more in the passing game.
Atlanta Falcons
Cordarrelle Patterson has at least 13 touches in four straight games. He’s cooled off after his incredible start to the season but remains a must-start moving forward.
Baltimore Ravens
Devonta Freeman has posted under 10 fantasy points in back-to-back games. Both of those games have largely been played without Lamar Jackson, who could return this week, though it remains to be seen.
Buffalo Bills
Zack Moss was a healthy scratch for the second week in a row and Devin Singletary set season-high marks in carries (22) and rushing yards (86) in Week 15. Singletary appears to have earned the trust of the coaching staff and could see decent volume in the weeks to come.
Carolina Panthers
Neither Chuba Hubbard nor Ameer Abdullah is worth starting at this point (Abdullah finished as a fringe fantasy RB1 last week, but you can’t count on his receiving score to continue), especially with Cam Newton vulturing the touchdowns near the end zone.
Chicago Bears
David Montgomery has experienced a nice bump in receiving work over the last few weeks as noted by his 22 targets over his previous three games. He remains the early-down option as well, which puts him in rare company as a workhorse option for his team.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon has not topped 60 rushing yards in three straight games after doing so in each of his prior three. His lack of involvement in the passing game remains concerning, but his overall body of work and workhorse role keep him in elite company.
Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard resumed their 1A/1B role in Week 15 with the two running backs receiving 19 and 15 touches respectively. Again, Pollard has shown to be more efficient and explosive, but Elliott remains the primary option.
Denver Broncos
Speaking of running back committees, both Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams have received at least 15 carries in back-to-back games. The Broncos are committed to the running game, and both have been start-worthy for your lineups in recent weeks.
Green Bay Packers
Another running back tandem, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have complemented each other well over the last few weeks. Dillon remains the bruiser while Jones continues to see involvement in both the running and passing game.
Houston Texans
Rex Burkhead has at least eight carries in five straight games. However, the value and production just aren’t there on this offense.
Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor. RB1.
Jacksonville Jaguars
After consecutive weeks of poor performances (and low volume), James Robinson racked up 21 touches and turned them into 88 yards and a score.
Kansas City Chiefs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire remains a trendy option because of his place with the Chiefs, but he has only topped 10 fantasy points once in his last three weeks. He’s also failed to top four yards/carry in those three games. Darrel Williams is a touchdown-dependent option but does see touches each week.
Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs continues to see significant usage in both the running and passing game. That high-volume role should keep him in your starting lineups moving forward and he’s the RB16 on the season.
Los Angeles Rams
In his first game back, Darrell Henderson was outcarried by Sony Michel 18-6. Henderson should work his way back into more touches, but Michel looks comfortably ahead of him at this point.
Minnesota Vikings
The injury concerns for Dalvin Cook appear to be behind us, as he has consecutive games with at least 27 carries.
New Orleans Saints
It was a tough matchup in Week 15, but Alvin Kamara remains an elite option and must-start. I think we’re due for a six-touchdown performance now that we’re into the fantasy playoffs. (That’s how it works, right?)
New York Giants
Saquon Barkley has at least 17 touches in four consecutive games but just one touchdown in that time. This offense will be limited by the play of the quarterback (whoever it is) so Barkley is now a volume-dependent, touchdown-dependent option moving forward.
New York Jets
It was exciting to get Michael Carter back, but he struggled to the tune of 18 yards on eight carries. Tevin Coleman also received eight carries but totaled 50 yards. Carter will continue to work his way back and is obviously the preferred option heading into next season.
Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders has at least 18 carries and 120 rushing yards in back-to-back games. It’s a nice reward for the fantasy managers who have held onto him for so long. Jordan Howard racked up 69 yards on 15 carries in Week 15, so the Eagles are still willing to utilize multiple players at the position.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris picked a tough week for his worst performance of the season. His 18 yards on 12 carries sank many fantasy managers. He gets a chance to redeem himself against the Chiefs this week.
Seattle Seahawks
Rashaad Penny and DeeJay Dallas ended up sharing the backfield in Week 15 with the latter finding the end zone for the second time this season.
Tennessee Titans
D’Onta Foreman is having himself an excellent few weeks. He’s topped 100 rushing yards in two of his previous three games and has a firm hold on the RB1 job for the Titans.
Washington Football Team
Antonio Gibson’s 26 rushing yards in Week 15 was the lowest he’s produced this season, but his 39 receiving yards were good for a season-high. Gibson did not practice on Wednesday (knee), and he briefly left his last matchup before returning. J.D. McKissic has been placed on injured reserve and will miss the next two weeks.
Usage by Situation
Tier 1 – Teams with Situations in Flux
Baltimore Ravens
There is hope Lamar Jackson can play in Week 16, but his practice will need to be monitored in the coming days. Tyler Huntley has been stellar for fantasy purposes in relief of Jackson and Mark Andrews has been the primary target for Huntley over the last two weeks. Marquise Brown also remains heavily involved and Rashod Bateman continues his erratic rookie campaign.
Denver Broncos
Teddy Bridgewater is dealing with a concussion after taking a scary hit this past weekend. While injured reserve is reportedly not being considered as an option, it looks like Drew Lock will get the start in Week 16. Courtland Sutton has not caught more than two passes in a game since Week 7, and both Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy remain risky fantasy options.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It was a rough week for Tom Brady & Co. Chris Godwin suffered a torn ACL and is out for the season. Mike Evans is considered week-to-week with a hamstring injury and Leonard Fournette could head to injured reserve with a hamstring injury of his own. Antonio Brown is expected back this week, which would provide a needed boost for Brady and this offense.
Tier 2 – Teams with Situations worth Monitoring
Arizona Cardinals
In his three weeks since returning from injury, Kyler Murray has trended in the wrong direction in terms of fantasy points. He lost DeAndre Hopkins (torn MCL) for the remainder of the season and has thrown three touchdowns and three interceptions over his last three games. Without Hopkins, Christian Kirk saw season-highs in targets (12) and receptions (9) last week. Kirk should continue to see increased targets moving forward.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence has had a forgettable rookie season. He has only nine touchdown passes to go along with 14 interceptions. The early returns on the coaching change have yielded few positives but Laquon Treadwell has been quietly productive over the last month. Treadwell has at least four receptions and 50 receiving yards in four consecutive games.
New York Giants
Daniel Jones (neck) has been shut down for the remainder of the season. This means some combination of Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm are in line to start for the last few weeks. No pass-catcher on this team inspires much confidence for fantasy, but Kenny Golladay does have 28 targets over his last four games. Evan Engram also has at least eight fantasy points in three of his last four outings.
Tennessee Titans
Wide receiver A.J. Brown is trending toward playing Thursday night. Brown has missed the last three games with a chest injury and could provide a needed boost to the Titans’ offense. Julio Jones did not finish his latest game with a hamstring injury but has been cleared to play. He remains a risky option given his history of soft-tissue injuries.
Tier 3 – Teams with Stable Situations
Atlanta Falcons
Russell Gage is firmly entrenched as a startable option in all formats. He’s averaging 10 targets per game over his last three and has topped 60 receiving yards in four straight. Kyle Pitts continues to see consistent volume (at least six targets in all but one game) and is currently the TE5. The touchdowns will come for the talented rookie, and he remains in serious contention for the dynasty TE1 slot.
Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs continues to produce and is now the WR7 on the season. Cole Beasley will miss Week 16 due to COVID-19 and Emmanuel Sanders could miss another week with a knee injury. Gabriel Davis has been on a roll lately with four touchdowns over his last three games and could be in line for another strong performance this weekend.
Carolina Panthers
It sounds like Cam Newton will remain the starter this week. Sam Darnold is healthy enough to play so we may see both quarterbacks over the last few weeks. Newton offers value around the end zone but that’s been about it. DJ Moore, who has topped 10 targets in three-straight games, will likely be a game-time decision with a hamstring issue.
Chicago Bears
Justin Fields has topped 20 fantasy points in consecutive weeks for the second time this season (Weeks 8-9) but was limited with an ankle injury Wednesday. Darnell Mooney should vault up draft boards this coming offseason as the speedy sophomore has been reeling in the targets over the last month.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow’s attempts (22), completions (15) and yards (157) in Week 15 were all his second-lowest marks of the season. As such, one would assume his wide receivers struggled as well. Tyler Boyd racked up 96 yards and a score on five receptions while Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins combined for 26 yards on three receptions. Don’t expect that trend to continue.
Cleveland Browns
Nick Mullens got the start for the coronavirus-ravaged Browns in Week 15 and was generally ineffective. Keep an eye on this team and their corresponding COVID-19 reports in the coming days.
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott remains in a rut. He’s gone three games without topping 15 fantasy points after hitting at least 28 points in five of his first six. Dalton Schultz bounced back with a nice game, but it’s been a troubling few weeks for the Dallas playmakers.
Detroit Lions
Jared Goff has been excellent over his last four games. In that time, he’s tossed nine touchdowns and only two interceptions. Amon-Ra St. Brown remains the biggest beneficiary of Goff’s play as the fourth-round rookie has at least eight receptions, 11 targets, and 73 receiving yards in three straight. However, Goff did test positive for COVID-19, so his Week 16 status remains unclear.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers is playing on another level right now. He has hit at least 32 fantasy points in four straight games and has 13 touchdowns with zero interceptions in that time. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is now on the Reserve/COVID-19 List, which clouds his availability for this week.
Houston Texans
After a few tough weeks, Brandin Cooks has bounced back with 15 receptions for 203 yards and a pair of scores on 22 targets over the last two games. However, he landed on the COVID-19 list Wednesday, so keep an eye on his status.
Indianapolis Colts
Carson Wentz completed five of 12 passes for 57 yards and a score in a Week 15 victory over the Patriots. This offense continues to lean on Jonathan Taylor, as it should.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes & Co. have played well in recent weeks, but both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are on the COVID-19 list. It’s not great timing for fantasy managers as the dynamic duo both topped 10 targets, 10 receptions, and 100 receiving yards in their Week 15 victory over the Chargers.
Las Vegas Raiders
Derek Carr has been impressively average this season, and his QB16 ranking appears to validate that idea. Hunter Renfrow posted his lowest target total of the season (5) in Week 15 but remains a must-start. Darren Waller continues to work his way back from knee and back injuries.
Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert has topped 230 passing yards and double-digit touchdown passes in five consecutive games and he gets an awesome matchup against the Texans this week. Keenan Allen remains one of the most consistent, productive wideouts in the league and is a low-end WR1 on the season.
Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp is on the verge of breaking records this season.
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa has the Dolphins surging right now and they get Jaylen Waddle back this week. In his three previous games, the rookie wideout was averaging 10 targets per game, and he’s a top-20 wide receiver on the season.
Minnesota Vikings
Another season, another low-end QB1 season for Kirk Cousins, who continues to be one of the better values each year. He has at least two touchdown passes in seven straight. Justin Jefferson (WR3) has six scores in his last seven games, and Adam Thielen appears set to return from his ankle injury. K.J. Osborn remains a trade target in dynasty leagues.
New England Patriots
One week after completing two of three passes in a victory, Mac Jones threw the ball 45 times in a loss to the Colts. Jakobi Meyers remains the most consistent wide receiver on the team and tight end Hunter Henry is quietly having a career year.
New Orleans Saints
In a low-scoring game, Marquez Callaway erupted for season-high marks in targets (9), receptions (6) and receiving yards (112). He’d seen exactly four targets in five straight but could perform well down the stretch if given the chance.
New York Jets
The Jets don’t have much to offer on offense. Zach Wilson continues to struggle and a lot of the team has been placed on the COVID-19 list.
Philadelphia Eagles
After missing one week with an ankle injury, Jalen Hurts posted an efficient line of 20-for-26 for 296 and a score through the air to go along with a pair of rushing scores. Dallas Goedert is finally breaking out now that he is the clear TE1 for the Eagles. He has 13 receptions (15 targets) for 240 yards and two scores over his last two games.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger came back down to earth in Week 15 after a promising stretch of games. He did rush for his first touchdown of the season but just doesn’t look to have much left in the tank at this stage of his career. All Steelers’ offensive playmakers are worth a look in dynasty leagues as potential trade targets.
San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo continues to operate inside the 49ers’ scheme and he’s doing it well. Deebo Samuel caught more than one pass for the first time since Week 10 while Brandon Aiyuk caught just one pass in Week 15. George Kittle is back to dominating once again.
Seattle Seahawks
Tyler Lockett was unavailable this past week due to COVID-19 but looks to be coming back soon. DK Metcalf was unable to capitalize on his absence, but his 12 targets were good for a season high. He’s only topped 65 receiving yards three times this season and hasn’t scored since Week 8.
Washington Football Team
Garrett Gilbert got the start in Week 15 but was unable to do much with it. Terry McLaurin managed to pull in a pair of receptions for 51 yards, but he hasn’t hit 10 fantasy points since Week 11.
