MSG Week 10 DFS Breakdown

Welcome to “The Breakdown,” a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.

For those that are new, here is a basic guide. The “CORE” plays are for a DFS player that is building a single entry or three-max GPP lineup. The “core” plays can be used in cash, but I always send out a Sunday a.m. “cash core” update (I put it at the bottom of this article) to narrow down the player pool even further. Most optimal cash lineups will be centered around opportunity opened up by injury, so no sense of spending hours tinkering. Reserve your cash game entries with the plan of modifying on Sunday morning.

I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 10.

#FTNDaily

All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of Friday.

“GPP only” plays that are not in BOLD are for MME only. BOLD CORE plays are the players I will have the most exposure to.

HOU +3.5. O/U: 45.5
HOU: 21 | CLE: 24

Weather warning

As I said last time we had bad weather, you can just ignore it all as a GPP move, with so many shying away. That said, 32 MPH winds and 46 MPH gusts are just too high to not address, as is a 10-point drop in the total from this game’s open. We can look at the players that have low aDOTs, but if you are rolling out one team or even three-max, I can’t tell you to invest in passing attacks with high winds. We saw Baker Mayfield complete 12 passes for 122 passing yards in Week 8 in similar conditions. 

If this weather clears up, I will add more analysis on the passing attack. But for now, I will focus primarily on the RBs. 

Pace and playcalling

Both teams run a low play volume, with Houston 30th and Cleveland 28th in plays per game. It is also on the negative side of the spectrum from a pace perspective, with Houston 22nd and Cleveland 23rd in neutral situations. 

Houston has become a top-three pass team in neutral situations (61%), while Cleveland runs at the fifth-highest rate in neutral and overall. 

The weather shouldn’t affect what Cleveland does, but it could neutralize the deep pass (Houston is seventh in completions of 20-plus yards). Cleveland has already allowed the ninth-fewest such pass completions. 

Houston is 30th in yards and points per drive on defense, allowing 30.2 PPG (29th).

Texans

Deshaun Watson has been a Sunday a.m. staple for four straight weeks, and delivered four games of at least 24 DK points, averaging 29.06 FPPG. He has rushed 7 and 10 times over his last two, which is a nice trend to watch out for. It’s sad, but we can’t pay-up for him in ultra-high winds at his higher price.

David Johnson is OUT, as is starting left guard Senio Kelemete. For those who have been with me for a while, you know my love for Duke Johnson. He was misused in Cleveland and has been underutilized in Houston. There were rumors of C.J. Prosise being activated, but as of when I write this, Houston only has a fullback and Buddy Howell, who has handled 5 rush attempts in two seasons and a half seasons. Cleveland is solid, not spectacular against RBs (14th overall), allowing 139 rush yards per game in their last three (ninth-most). 

Duke has hauled in 14 of 17 targets this season from Watson, which is the most appealing part for me at $5k on DK. That and he could see a 100% opportunity share like last week (73 total yards on 20 touches and a TD). The passing work and high volume should get him there, despite his poor offensive line (29th in adjusted line yards, 32nd in second-level blocking). 

Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks can run short crossing routes and take advantage of their run-after-the-catch ability. Cooks would be my first choice (19th in YAC) for his lower target depth, but I am not looking at these guys on my main roster this week (same for Randall Cobb and the TEs). 

Browns

Houston is about as bad as it gets against the run — 4.99 adjusted yards allowed, 27th in second-level yards allowed, dead last in open-field yards. Cleveland is second in breakaway (20-yard or more) runs, and Houston has allowed the third-most.

On Friday, Browns coach Kevin Stefanski said the team will use the next 24 hours to determine if Nick Chubb is ready to return from his knee injury. Per the team’s website, “Chubb, who was designated to return from injured reserve Monday, has not yet been activated. Because of that distinction, he has not appeared on the team’s official injury report this week.” Said Stefanski, “We’re going to do what’s best for Nick and what’s best for the Browns.”

My guess is that is coach-speak and Chubb plays, but the split between him and Kareem Hunt is unknown. They are both priced like RB1s, which makes them tough to use on a primary or three-max. The matchup is so good though, there is merit to using them as low-owned one-offs, especially Chubb for his elite skillset. He is still first in yards created, breakaway runs and breakaway run percentage and second in YPC. In his two high-usage games (what we are hoping for if we roster him), he handled 7 and 4 red-zone touches. 

I will update my final exposure and plan for Chubb Sunday morning. I can see Hunt smashing finally, after being the chalk and failing while Chubb was out. With that in mind, I will have a couple of Milly Maker shares to ease the pain if he finally smashes at sub-5%. Again, the matchup of the Cleveland OL (third adjusted line yards gained), and Houston is so good, one and possibly both of these guys are going to produce. 

Austin Hooper returns after a two-game absence due to an appendectomy. He had emerged as a top-three TE in usage prior (7.5 targets per game in his last three), and should be a main target in this awful weather with Odell Beckham on IR (his 6.3-yard aDOT is 31st among tight ends). The Browns use multiple TEs on 55% of their plays, so expect to see Harrison Bryant and David Njoku, but Hooper should get his job back. He is priced right, so will carry some ownership (10% in our model). 

Since Beckham went out, Jarvis Landry has averaged 8.5 targets per game, with 11 last game in the wind bowl. It was hard to watch, as he and Mayfield only connected on four passes for 52 yards. He did look his way in the red zone and at the end zone, and Landry’s No. 80 average target difference makes him a good fit for this weather. That said, I can’t see him cracking my top-10, which needs to happen to end up in on my three-max. 

Core plays: Duke Johnson (solid cash game play on DK)

GPP only: Nick Chubb, Austin Hooper (could be moved to cash Sunday morning), Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt (MME only) 

WAS +4.5. O/U: NA
WAS: NA | DET: NA

Pace and playcalling

A good matchup for pace, with Washington fourth and Detroit 10th in neutral situations. The Football Team hasn’t changed its pace regardless of what bad QB is in there. The team passes at the fifth-highest neutral rate in its last two games, which is also in line with their playcalling with Kyle Allen and Dwayne Haskins. 

When down by 7 or more (often), Washington passes at a 68% rate. Even with the high pass rate, the low play volume (25th) has Washington 17th in pass attempts per game. 

Matt Patricia wants to run, but the Lions D won’t allow it in most weeks. This is a spot where he could get his way. Washington has moved into first in pass DVOA, 17th against the run. 

Football Team 

Antonio Gibson is still not locked into a guaranteed amount of touches. In a Week 8 win, he had 20 rush attempts and 1 target (no catches); last week in a loss to the Giants, he had only six carries and three targets. Compare that to J.D. McKissic’s 14 targets (9-65-0), matching Terry McLaurin for the team high. Gibson just isn’t being used on third down, so he needs to get all his production in on first and second. With Detroit potentially missing two offensive studs, this game could stay close, which would set Gibson up against a Lions team that just allowed Minnesota backs to go for 275 rushing yards. 

Detroit is allowing 4.96 adjusted line yards and is 30th in second-level, 27th in open-field rank. Gibson leads the team in red-zone and end-zone carries, and Detroit has allowed 10 rush TDs in eight games in addition to a league-high 5 receiving TDs to backs. If there was ever a week to take a shot on Gibson in GPPs, this would be it (Detroit allows 31 RB touches per game). 

Detroit has also allowed the seventh-most yards to RBs via the pass, setting up McKissic for another good matchup if the script turns his way. He hasn’t sniffed the end zone this season, so the ceiling isn’t there for tournaments and he is too script dependent for cash. 

Only in 2020 can the ghost of Alex Smith throw for 325 yards on over 10.2 YPA. I am happy for him, but every time he drops back I find myself holding my breath. Dwayne Haskins is still in the doghouse, but is also one play away from being out there again if Smith breaks. The problem for Smith and all these QBs is the offensive line, which ranks last in pressure rate allowed. 

Terry McLaurin is such a stud. If he was on Kansas City or some other high-powered offense, McLaurin would be in the mix with Davante Adams and the other big dogs in the weekly WR rankings. The one thing we can count on with McLaurin is volume, with a floor of 7 targets this season (he’s averaging 9.6 per game) and soaking up nearly 50% of his team’s air yards (36.5% target share with Smith). Desmond Trufant returned from injury and played very well against Adam Thielen in shadow coverage (76.2% of snaps, 1-8-0 on 3 targets). Trufant is one of the toughest players to handicap, flashing his old skillset at times and then being torched at epic proportions when banged up (see Will Fuller’s game log last season). Washington does a good job moving F1 around to get away from shadow CBs, including inside (28% slot). That is how he got loose for the big TD last week, as James Bradberry held him in check on the outside for 1-11-0 on 65.8% of plays. McLaurin has 345 yards after the catch (4.5 per target), which leads all players this season. He is leading the league in team air yard share for the season, but his aDOT and air yards have seen a noticeable hit with checkdown specialist Alex Smith under center (9.05 yards vs. 10.5).

Washington has a lot more healthy bodies for Smith, but we can ignore them for DFS. Cam Sims, Isaiah Wright and Steven Sims all played last week along with TE Logan Thomas. Cam Sims is a big outside WR, Steven Sims the slot guy, but again, we can ignore them for DFS. If anything, they give the McLaurin fade a slightly better shot of success.

Lions

Matthew Stafford has thrown an INT in six of eight games and is fourth in interceptable passes thrown. Washington is averaging one INT per game and is fifth in pressure rate, fourth in sacks and first in adjusted sack rate. Detroit is 21st in adjusted sack rate and sacks and 18th in pressure rate allowed. Stafford had to leave last week’s game late with a potential concussion, which is not optimal when facing a top-end pass rush. He hasn’t shown any upside this season, as he did in 2019, and will be without Kenny Golladay and potentially T.J. Hockenson, two of his most talented receiving options. 

The Outlaw Jesse James becomes a gross but interesting $2.5k TE punt. Washington is tough on the outside, so teams target their TEs, leading to the fourth-most fantasy points per game against on DK. Last week, they allowed Evan Engram 5-48-1, which would be more than enough at James’ price tag. This would only be if both Golladay and Hockenson are OUT. This offense has targeted the TE position at a 22% this season (12th). Isaac Nauta (their other TE) is just a blocking TE, so James should be out there running routes. 

The RBs should get a lot of work, with Washington allowing 30 rush attempts per game (fifth-most). I love D’Andre Swift — he is my most heavily owned RB in best ball and seasonal leagues — but he continues to be a frustrating RB in DFS, ranking 45th in opportunity share and 46th in snap share. Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson combined for 6-50-0 on 8 targets which had me screaming obscenities to Patricia through the television. Even with that, Swift ran his streak of games with at least 3 receptions to five, which will be put to the test this week. Washington is 31st in receptions and 32nd in yards allowed to RBs, with a line of 3 for 30 being the most they have allowed to any RB this season (Darrell Henderson).

On the ground, Peterson is firmly in the mix and now gets a revenge game that you can see Patricia caring about. He has 39 carries in his last five, compared to 42 to for Swift and 11 for Johnson (four games). Swift also has a small red-zone edge in the last four, but Washington has allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to backs despite all the carries, so this is not a situation I will be attacking. 

Marvin Jones keeping scoring and low volume and yardage output. He has not cracked 4 receptions or 55 yards in a game without Golladay but has scored in two of three. He has not been someone I have played much this season and Washington is allowing the fewest fantasy points to the position this season, so this is not a Marvin week for me. Same goes for Danny Amendola, Marvin Hall and Quntez Cephus. No interest. 

Core plays: Antonio Gibson, Washington DST, T.J. Hockenson (practiced FRI, looks to be on track. Everything I wrote about James above does apply to Hockenson, only the starter is about 1000x more talented and 2x more expensive on DK. 

GPP only: Terry McLaurin, Detroit DST 

JAX +13.5. O/U: 49
JAX: 17 | GB: 31

Weather warning: Sustained winds 20-25mph with stronger gusts, bump down to passing/kicking.

Pace and playcalling

This is a major mismatch in Green Bay, the only game on the slate with a point spread of more than 6.5. Jacksonville has allowed 30.9 PPG this season, 33.3 over their last three. Green Bay is third in scoring at 31.6 PPG, winning their home games by an average of 10 points.

Green Bay is third in yards and first in points per drive on offense, while Jacksonville is last in both yards and points per drive allowed. 

Jacksonville has gone 1-3 ATS on the road, with those games being decided by an average of 9.3 points. The Jaguars have also become legendary for their struggles outside the AFC South. They have failed to cover in 29% of non-division games since 2005. I am not saying this means we want to play Green Bay at -13.5, but it is an interesting stat. 

When it comes to pace, we need to look at Jacksonville when playing from behind, which is close to always — the Jaguars lead the league in snaps while trailing this season. They have passed at 69% this season (72% last week in Jake Luton’s only start) when down by at least 7. They stayed at the same fast pace in that situation as well, which should lead to another game with Luton attempting 35-plus passes at minimum. 

Teams would prefer to attack Green Bay on the ground, as we witnessed Minnesota do, but the Packers’ rush rate against is just 18th due to teams falling behind. Green Bay goes to a 50/50 pass/run ratio when up by at least 7 and plays at the fifth-slowest overall pace. We will need Jacksonville to score some points to keep Green Bay with its foot on the gas. 

Jacksonville is one of three teams allowing at least a 70% competition rate against (the Packers and Jets are the other two). 

Jaguars

There are 15 players on the Packers’ injury report, including Robert Tonyan, who was added with an ankle injury he suffered at Thursday’s practice. Besides Tonyan and WR Darrius Shepherd, the most impactful are CBs Kevin King (limited) and Jaire Alexander (concussion protocol), whose absences would pave the way for another great spot for D.J. Chark. 

Chark connected for 7-146-1 on 12 targets. Jacksonville has started to use him like the alpha that he is, targeting him 33 times in his last three games (30.5% target share), with a league-high 52% of team air yards. 

Jake Luton started his career with a bang, connecting with Chark for a 73-yard TD pass to open the game. He connected on 26-of-38 passes for 304 yards (8.0 Y/A) and a TD, adding a 13-yard touchdown run to give him 22.46 fantasy points on FD. Without Alexander, this GB pass D, in combination with their 29th-ranked pressure rate and probable gamescript, puts Luton in another interesting spot against an overrated GB pass D.

James Robinson (50 snaps, 2 targets, 12 routes, no catches) has the best matchup, but gamescript looms over him after we saw him lose passing-down work to Chris Thompson in a shootout last week (28 snaps, 4-35-0 on 4 targets, 12 routes). That is the bad. The good is that Robinson has rushed 47 times in his last two games (98% of team rush attempts). Green Bay is allowing 4.63 adjusted line yards this season, which is better than 2019. I know that is hard to believe after seeing Dalvin Cook run for 900 yards on them two weeks ago, but their rush DVOA (20th) actually overtook their pass D (22nd) this week for the first time I can remember in a couple seasons. Still, a load of the fantasy points scored on Green Bay this season have been via the run, with the Packers allowing the second-most fantasy points per game on DK (35), but of course a lot of that is due to Cook who is on another level this season. 

WR Laviska Shenault (hamstring) has been ruled out. Keelan Cole has become an afterthought recently, and he showed up on the practice report as limited. I think he plays, but these guys being banged up should keep Chark getting big usage.

Luton looked toward Chris Conley (9 targets) and Tyler Eifert (5 targets) after Chark last week. I think you can take a shot on either as minimum-priced punts in your player pool for multi-entry, but these kind of players shouldn’t be on your single entry or three max. 

Packers

Aaron Rodgers has a dream matchup — it’s just a matter of how long Jacksonville keeps the Packers throwing. Either way, Rogers is a good bet to get you 260-plus yards and 2-3 TDs, with a very high ceiling if this game were to become a shootout. He is averaging 283 and 3 TDs per game this season, with six games as a top-10 QB (four in the top five). Jacksonville is third in fantasy points per game allowed to the quarterback position (25.0), putting Rodgers in the top-three for me this week at sub-10% ownership. 

According to ESPN’s Rob Demovsky, WR Allen Lazard (core) “could play.” His return would make Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s fantasy value plummet. They may ease him back if he even plays. I will update the secondary WR options after we get more clarity, but it’s Davante Adams and Aaron Jones and a bunch of GPP dart throws. I will update the “other GB” WRs as more news rolls in about Tonyan and Lazard. 

Aaron Jones will not be sub-10% ownership, but rather the most popular RB not named Mike Davis. Jones got 20 touches in his return from a two-game absence. He needs to be in your cash game lineups — no reason to mess around there — but there is some merit to fading him on a majority of your GPP lineups. For one, Jamaal Williams is back and has a healthy prop set at Pinnacle (31.5 rush/11.5 pass yards). Williams was placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list because he was close to rookie AJ Dillon, but I have seen no reports that he ever had it, so should be full strength. Tyler Ervin flashed a bit last week as a passing option, so if we fade Jones, these are the guys we are hoping to see. Fading a player in a good spot at a good price never feels great — chalk doesn’t become chalk for no reason, it’s chalk because it is the “optimal” or logical play. Jacksonville has also been sneaky good against the run, ranking 11th in adjusted line yards allowed. The thing they have done is allowed big runs once a back gets past the first level, ranking 20th in open field yards allowed. I will have about 10-15%, which should be about one-third of the field. 

Davante Adams will be right with Jones at about 30% ownership. Fading them both is a much tougher ask for me. The “range of outcomes” for an offense like Green Bay that limits targets to very few (Adams has a 34.1% target share when active, first) is not like most teams. Adams gets 13.4 targets a game in his healthy games, where he has averaged 10-127.8-1 for 34.18 DK points. I will be overweight on Adams, maybe 75% or higher. Whether Sidney Jones, C.J. Henderson, or Tre Herndon (Adams has a 26% slot rate), Davante is going to eat. He has an obscene 41% red-zone target share, which is the highest I can remember for a WR. He also has a -220 TD prop, also the highest I can remember seeing for a WR. To put that in perspective, James Conner has a -145 prop, at home, against the Bengals. 

Core players: Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers, D.J. Chark, Aaron Jones 

GPP only: James Robinson, Jake Luton/Chark 

BUF +2.5. O/U: 56.5
BUF: 27 | AZ: 29.5

Pace and playcalling

Arizona is first in neutral script and first in no-huddle rate (44%). The Cardinals run no-huddle at nearly 2.5x the second-place team (NYG). They run a lot, but that will happen when your QB rushes 9.5 times per game. 

Buffalo is eighth in neutral pace and keeps it at about the same pace regardless of the situation, making this the highest-rated game on the slate for pace and in projected points. Buffalo has averaged 5.0 less PPG on the road this season, and 17.5 in their last two games at the Jets and Titans, two teams in the bottom-seven of pass DVOA.

Arizona has the ability to pull teams into high-play and high-paced games (sixth-most plays per game against). Both teams are in the top-eight in points and yards per drive, with Buffalo in the top-four in both. Bettors can’t get enough of the OVER, betting it up to 56.5 with both the public and percent of money pounding that side. 

Arizona’s last two home games have gone 71 and 65 points and Buffalo’s last game was a 78-point shootout with Seattle. The common element in two of those games was Seattle, who will be busy giving up 30 points in LA. Still, this game has great shootout potential with two QBs that can run and sling it. 

Bills

Josh Allen destroyed Seattle for 39 fantasy points on DK last week. That was his fifth top-seven finish this season, with four games in the top-three. Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson are the only QBs with more (Murray has seven, Wilson six). Arizona blitzes at a high rate (fifth) and plays a good amount of man coverage, which should set up Allen for another big day on the ground. Arizona has allowed four of the last five opposing QBs to reach 20 yards, and the one exception was Joe Flacco. The Cardinals allowed 84 yards to Wilson, 35 to Tua Tagovailoa and 6-32-1 to Teddy Bridgewater. Allen is averaging 7.2-26.7 p/g with 5 rush TDs to go along with 19 TD passes. He gets 1.7 RZ carries per game, and now has 22 rush TDs in 36 career starts (236 carries). To put that in perspective, Ezekiel Elliott has 23 rush TDs in his last 30 on 755 carries. 

Stefon Diggs rolls along, seeing 29.3% of the team’s targets, averaging more 10 per game over his last three games. Diggs moves all over the formation and can exploit the soft interior of the Arizona pass defense. He grades out as Jeff Ratcliffe’s No. 3 WR/CB matchup on the Sunday slate, behind only Davante Adams and Keenan Allen. Patrick Peterson has started to match up against opponents’ WR1 more lately, but with Diggs moving around as much as he does, I am not worried about Peterson. He is such a sharp route runner that Peterson won’t be able to hang anyway. Last week, he allowed DeVante Parker 4-52-0 on 5 targets (61%). 

The Cards are beat up in the secondary, with Budda Baker and Dre Kirkpatrick questionable, though both are expected to play. LB Devon Kennard and CB Byron Murphy Jr. have been activated from the COVID-19 list and will play as well. To show how thin they are at CB, Arizona signed 77-year-old CB Johnathan Joseph.

John Brown posted a season-best 11 targets (8-99-0) against Seattle. Allen spreads it around, with multiple TEs and WRs like Isaiah McKenzie and Gabriel Davis in the mix. Cole Beasley also pops up for a big game every 2-3 weeks as well, which makes anyone not named Diggs a risky play. Still, I will be taking a shot on Smoky in a revenge game on an Allen stack or two. 

Beasley has another plus matchup but has a limited ceiling, with 2 red-zone targets in his last five games. I prefer Brown on FD, where he is still $5.6k. On DK, he got priced up to $5.3k and Beasley down to $4.7k, so I will hedge with a share of Beasley. After flopping as a popular play last week versus Seattle, he will be ignored this week. 

Cardinals

Kyler Murray is 2020’s answer to Lamar Jackson, putting up RB2 numbers weekly. The big difference with Murray is that he has more talent at WR and as a passer than Jackson. He has a rushing prop of 50 rush yards again this week, which he has hit in six games this season and three straight, averaging 82.3 rush yards over that stretch. Buffalo held RW3 to his lowest rushing output last week, but have allowed rushing production to QBs, including 54 yards and a TD to Cam Newton, 36 yards to Patrick Mahomes, and 42-1 to Ryan Tannehill. They have allowed 4 rush TDs to QBs now, tied with four other teams for the most this season. 

Chase Edmonds’ DFS status this week depends on Kenyan Drake, who is a game-time decision. Drake has been limited in practice this week, so I think he comes back, but will update after we get official word.

DeAndre Hopkins should see a lot of Tre’Davious White, who practiced in full on Friday after being limited. White matches up better with Hopkins than he did with DK Metcalf, but I still expect him to get his 5-6 catches and 60 yards or so. That is nice, but at his high price, he will be a fade for me again. I could see it if he was going to be low-owned, but our DFS ownership model has him at 17% on both sites, so I don’t see the value in attacking White, even if it is for only 60% of snaps. 

Christian Kirk should avoid White for the majority of snaps and has been an emerging commodity over his last four games, with back-to-back games of 8 targets coming into this one. Kirk keeps getting deep targets from Murray, which is what we want in GPPs. He has 6 TDs in his last five games, which is unsustainable, but I would not count on it regressing this week in what looks like another shootout with Hopkins locked up with a top CB. Buffalo is allowing more than three 20-yard completions per game and multiple TD passes to every QB not on the Jets and Patriots. 

Bills LB Matt Milano is still OUT. 

Core plays: Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Christian Kirk 

GPP only: John Brown, Cole Beasley (Check back closer to game time for Arizona running backs) 

DEN +4 O/U: 51
DEN: 23.5 | LV: 27.5

Pace and playcalling

There have only been three games played in the Death Star in Vegas, but they have all been shootouts, averaging 58.7 PPG (55.9 in Raiders games overall).

Denver has averaged 25.8 PPG on the road, compared to 17.8 at home. They have turned fantasy friendly, with four of their last five games going over 59 points. Only a bad-weather game against slow-paced/run-heavy New England has stopped the trend, with those four games averaging a combined 61.5 PPG. 

Las Vegas is 31 is both yards and points per drive allowed, and Denver has averaged 389.0 yards per game in their last three, and 27.5 PPG in their last four (excluding the New England game). 

The uptick is pace-and-playcalling-related (not a shocker). Denver has passed at 59% this season, but 72% in their last two (neutral), after passing at a 53% rate in their first five games. 

Broncos

Drew Lock led all QBs with air yards last week with 440. That tells us he is taking a ton of deep shots, leading in that stat since Week 6. He has not been good on deep shots, but as they say, it only takes one. He runs into another smash spot against the No. 26 pass DVOA, which is 28th in adjusted sack rate and 31st in sacks per game. Lock has a 27% pressured completion rate, which jumps to 69.6% when clean. All his production has come late, with the Broncos well behind, and he has ridden that to two top-seven finishes.

Removing the wind game in Cleveland, the Raiders have been getting lit up by opposing QBs, allowing 345 passing yards and 8 TD passes in their last three non-wind games. He is the best of the cheap QBs again this week at $7.2k on FD, $5.5k on DK. 

With the increased passing rate has come a decline to the run game. Melvin Gordon’s touches, yardage and fantasy points continue to take a nosedive. He has not been efficient all season, so without volume it is rough for Gordon’s prospects. He is averaging 3.6 YPC on his last 31 carries and was only targeted one time in a 34-27 loss. He had 7 targets the week before if you want to chase the passing work — Las Vegas has allowed the second-most targets and fifth-most receptions to backs. 

Phillip Lindsay has become an early-down rushing back, with one catch on six targets in his last four games and Gordon playing nearly all the snaps when they are passing (44-28 snap breakdown last week in Gordon’s favor). 

The Raiders are a plus matchup for backs, allowing 30 FPPG, so I like Lindsay to get 8-12 carries for 50-60 yards. If he scores, it’s a nice low-owned play, but if not, it’s an empty 5-6 FP without receiving production. 

Jerry Jeudy did not move inside last week as I expected, running more than 80% of his routes from the outside, opposite Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler in the slot (87.8%). It didn’t matter, as we rode him in all of our main lineups for 7-125-1 on 14 targets. That is two straight games with at least 10 targets, which is an exciting development for someone as talented as Jeudy. DK was smart and raised him $900, but FD left him at $5.8k, and thus he is one of the best WR plays of the week on that site. 

Jeudy suffered a shoulder injury against the Falcons and did not practice Wednesday before being limited Thursday and Friday. Head coach Vic Fangio said he is “pretty confident” Jeudy would be able to play. I believe this news has his ownership under 10%, which has me ready to pounce once again. 

I also like big Tim Patrick again, against 5-foot-9 Nevin Lawson on the outside. Patrick saw nine targets in his return, including two goal-line targets. 

Hamler has been the biggest benefactor of the uptick in passing. If another shootout develops, he will be a solid value play at $3.8k. He played a healthy 75% snap-share, even with Patrick back, and saw a season-high 10 targets. Las Vegas has allowed 9.3 targets per game to the slot for 5.8-78.8-0.6 (17.4 FP). 

Noah Fant ruined some great teams last week after starting hot and leaving with an ankle injury. He did return but became an afterthought. It’s the same ankle that has been plaguing him since Week 4. The ankle has him in the GPP-only bin versus cash, but I will have a good amount again in my Lock stacks. Albert Okwuegbunam was put on IR, clearing the way for Fant, Patrick and Jeudy in the red zone. Las Vegas is middle of the pack against TEs but did allow 8-108-1 to Travis Kelce and 5-62-1 to Rob Gronkowski in Weeks 6-7. Fant was not on the injury report and practiced in full Thursday and Friday. 

Raiders

Our Denver stacks are dependent on Derek Carr and the Raiders putting up points. Las Vegas is quietly fifth in yards and sixth in points per drive. They have the No. 8 passing DVOA offense (No. 20 rush), but the ol’ ball coach still loves to establish it (Las Vegas has the fourth-highest neutral rush rate). Still, Carr continues to get it done on limited attempts (21st in attempts per game at 32.2). He has multiple TD passes in his last six games that didn’t take place in 40 MPH winds, ranking sixth in ANY/A and fifth in true completion percentage (75%). I keep saying every week Denver is highly overrated in pass D, and they have now allowed back-to-back games with 3 TD passes. They got let off the hook in the snow game against Mahomes, and got to face New England and then the Jets with Flacco; other than that they have been exploited, giving up 13 TD passes in those five games. 

Josh Jacobs surrendered 9 carries to Jalen Richard and Devontae Booker last week, seeing 15 touches after handling a season-high 31 in Cleveland. That very well may have been due to the big usage the week before, but either way he has not emerged as the every-down back we hoped for this preseason. He is averaging 3.2 targets per game, up from 2.2 in 2019, but only two targets in his last two games on 21 routes. Denver has looked solid against the run and hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 2. The Broncos have missed the third-fewest tackles and are second in second-level yards allowed, moving up to 13th in rush DVOA. 

Nelson Agholor and Henry Ruggs are playing in two-receiver sets, with Hunter Renfrow playing inside. None of these guys interests me, but Agholor would be my choice if you are looking to run it back with someone not named Darren Waller. Ruggs has the one-play home run upside, but he has not seen more than 4 targets since Week 1.

Core plays: Jerry Jeudy, Darren Waller

GPP only: Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Tim Patrick 

LAC +1.5. O/U: 48.5
LAC: 24 | MIA: 24.5

Pace and playcalling

The Chargers are is the eighth-fastest team in neutral situations this season. They passed on 61% of plays in Week 9, up from their normal 53% neutral pass rate. 

We want Justin Herbert to keep slinging it, but Miami has encouraged opponents into the run (59.5% pass rate against). They moved up four spots in the rush DVOA ranks, but are still 28th compared to eighth in the pass, down from third entering Week 9. 

Miami has been the 13th fastest-paced team with Tua Tagovailoa under center after being 31st under Ryan Fitzpatrick. They have passed at a conservative 54% rate (neutral), slightly lower than with Fitz (57%). Los Angeles has pushed opponents to pass (sixth-highest rate). 

The Chargers continue to find themselves in shootouts, running the second-most plays while allowing the ninth-most this season. Their last five games have gone OVER the total, averaging a combined 62.4 points per game. They have allowed 29 points or more in all of those games (31.8 PPG in their last five). 

Miami has allowed exactly 31 points to the Bills, Cardinals and Seahawks, and 11.6 points per game to the Jets, Jaguars, 49ers, Patriots and Rams. 

Chargers

Justin Herbert now has three straight games with at least 42 attempts, averaging 42.5 attempts during that stretch (third-most), leading to an average of 312 passing yards and 2.7 passing TDs per game for the rookie. He has also picked up 37 rushing yards per game in those three games, becoming one of the most consistent commodities in DFS (23.4 FP or more in the last five). Miami is blitzing at the fourth-highest rate and plays a lot of man coverage. Herbert is fourth in pressure completion rate and has handled opponents’ blitzes very well. I also think the corners playing man on the outside and a steady dose of blitzes should lead to some more rushing production. 

Miami has taken advantage of bad QBs, allowing Cam Newton, the 49ers QBs, Gardner Minshew and Joe Flacco 197 passing yards and 1 TD. Against Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, Jared Goff and Josh Allen, it has been a much different story — Miami has allowed an average of 353 passing yards and 2.5 passing TDs per game to those four.

FanDuel moved Herbert to $8k finally, but DK lowered him $200, keeping him in the very reasonable $6.6k range and firmly in play in GPPs. 

We have been riding the Keenan Allen hot streak for three straight weeks, and his price is still a relative value considering his usage and production. When removing his injury game in New Orleans , he has been ridiculous, as our NFL Splits tool illustrates. 

You will hear people talk about Xavien Howard and Byron Jones like they matter, but QBs have completed 11 of their last 13 pass attempts against Jones in coverage for 161 yards and 2 TDs. Howard has been better, but looking closer, his splits look like the entire team. He allowed 6-133-0 on 7 tartets against Seattle, 4-71-1 on 6 targets against Buffalo and 7-84-1 against the Rams. Games against the Jets, Niners, Jaguars and Patriots helped pad his stats. Regardless, Allen runs 43.7% of his routes in the slot, which will allow him to pick apart CB Nik Needham and the interior of the Miami pass D (the defensive heat map below is from Sharp Football, the route charts are NFL Next Gen Stats). Miami allows the third-most targets and fifth-most catches to slot WRs. 

Mike Williams’ snap counts have been trending up, playing 75%-87%-92% in his last three games. He has 15 targets in his last two, including 4 red-zone targets, and leads the team with 6 end-zone targets. He is a GPP play due to his fifth-ranked aDOT (17.2 yards), and usage around the goal line. 

Hunter Henry is still playing full time and has 6.5 targets in his last four games. But he oddly has not been good with Herbert. In his last five, he has not gone over 4 receptions or 39 yards in any game, averaging 3.4 receptions and 30.2 yards per game (1 TD). Both Donald Parham and Gabe Nabers have more red-zone targets (3) in their last three games than Henry (2). 

Justin Jackson is OUT. That is all I can say about him. It’s still too soon. 

Troymaine Pope is questionable, but I think he plays. That is going to make this a messy backfield committee with Joshua Kelley (54% of snaps with Jackson out), and Kalen Ballage (39.2%) also in the mix (5 RZ carries). This is a great matchup for backs, but this feels like a game of RB roulette that I don’t want to play. 

Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa was unlocked in Arizona, after looking overwhelmed in his debut (8.9 YPA, compared to 4.2 versus the Rams). He did make a couple head-scratchers, but that is par for the course for most young playmakers getting accustomed to the speed of the NFL. It was still only 28 pass attempts, in a shootout, which has Miami’s three-game average at 26.3. The Dolphins are 28th in overall pass attempts and teams have been more successful against the Chargers in the run (23rd rush DVOA, 16th pass, allowing the ninth-lowest completion rate against). What give him GPP appeal is the 16 passing and 3 rushing TDs allowed by LAC, which has led to the fifth-most fantasy points per game allowed to the position. Los Angeles has allowed 283.8 passing yards per game on the road with 3 TDs, compared to 215.5 passing yards and 1.75 TDs at home 

Something named Salvon Ahmed led Miami RBs in playing time last week (28 snaps), followed by Jordan Howard (21) and Patrick Laird (12). Now, we are (likely) adding Matt Breida and DeAndre Washington to the mix. I assume the latter two would be the two RBs if fully healthy and integrated, but we can move along. 

With Preston Williams placed on injured reserve (foot), it should be DeVante Parker season in Miami. Tua has targeted his WRs at a 62% rate, compared to 14% for his RBs and 22% to the TEs. He and Williams were going off before the injury, catching 4-60-1 on just 17 snaps. That led to Parker seeing a team-high seven targets (6-64-0). The Chargers do not shadow, and Parker moves around quite a bit, so I would not focus on any one CB matchup. Casey Hayward has the name brand, but he is 31 now and CBs tend to fall off quickly, especially a player like Hayward, who had a great career while both small and not very fast. 

Mike Gesicki (3-42-0 against Arizona) is still on the field and running routes. That said, Miami seems unwilling to unleash him for whatever reason, which has led to inconsistent snaps and usage. Since his six-target game in San Francisco, he has 8 targets in three games. He still lines up as essentially a slot WR on 63% of plays, and could (should) see a bump with Williams out. The Chargers have allowed 14.4 FPPG on DK to TEs, and they are tied for ninth in slot fantasy points allowed, per our advanced DvP tool. 

Core plays: Keenan Allen, DeVante Parker 

GPP plays: Justin Herbert/Mike Williams/Allen/Parker stack, Tua Tagovailoa/Mike Gesicki/Parker/Allen stack

CIN +6.5. O/U: 45.5
CIN: 19.5 | PIT: 27

Weather warning: Some rain and 15 MPH winds in the forecast, which is not ideal for pass-happy Cincinnati and its offensive line (32 sacks allowed, last) against Pittsburgh, which is first in sacks, adjusted sack rate and pressure rate. I like this Cincinnati offense usually, but this is a rough spot, especially if the ball is wet. The Steelers came out flat last week against Dallas, so I expect them to be back to their normal dominant selves at home in a division matchup. Pittsburgh has 21 of its 32 sacks in the team’s four home games. 

**SAT UPDATE**

Rain not as likely, still 15-20mph winds. 

CIN

I am not investing much in CINN this week at PITT, other than a little Gio Bernard, assuming Joe Mixon is OUT. (HE IS OUT).

Pitt has quietly gotten gashed on the ground over their last three games, allowing the most yards per game during that span. Gio can also get it done as a pass catcher if the script goes against him, catching 8-75-2 in his last two without Mixon. 

**Update**

Steelers slot CB Mike Hilton is doubtful. Cameron Sutton, who has a higher coverage rating at PFF will slide into his spot. Pitt has allowed a decent amount of production to slot WRs (8.8 targets for 5.9 rec.- 80.3 rec. yards – 0.8 TDs per game for 18.4 FP). Notable slot WR performances were Greg Ward (8-72-1 on 11 targets) and 4-54-1 to Zach Pascal. With that in mind, Tyler Boyd would be your guy, either on a VERY low owned (1-3%) stack with Joe Burrow or as a run back to a Big Ben stack. He went for 5-101-1 in their last meeting. 

PIT

Ben Roethlisberger expects to be activated Saturday from the COVID list (was in close contact, not found positive). Roethlisberger hasn’t practiced all week, so he’ll go through a walkthrough ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Bengals. Head Coach Mike Tomlin said that Roethlisberger’s knees are “fine”. If he was ruled out, Mason Rudolph would start and all these passing options become fades. I expect him to play, but it is 2020, and writing up games for a key player to get ruled out and change the entire dynamic is not fun, so I will update this game in full after he is confirmed as the starter on SAT. 

SATURDAY UPDATE 

Big Ben is IN, and the Bengals will be without CBs LeShaun Sims and Darius Phillips. Slot CB Mackensie Alexander was questionable, but practiced on FRI and should play. He and William Jackson will start with UDFA Tony Brown in 3-WR sets. That puts all these WRs in a good spot, especially Chase Claypool who will see the most of Brown. That said, when he, Juju Smith Schuster, and Dionte Johnson are all on the field, along with an emerging Eric Ebron (6-50-0, 4-48-1, 3-22-1 in his last three games), you have a Tampa Bay situation where trying to hit the perfect 2 player combo stack will drive you insane. 

More on Ebron, I like him as a cheap, low-owned, one-off (2-4%). Cinn has allowed 6 TE TDs in their last FOUR games. 

PITT offensive players also come along with a VERY good defense, which means they can be scripted out very quickly (they are 8-0 after all). That means you need to count on the Bengals doing enough to bring this stack up to the level of a BUFF/AZ or one of the other high total games in good conditions. I don’t see a lot of value in using anyone but Conner in a main or 3-Max LU, so if you want to go here, just stack the game. Defenses are at a major disadvantage with defensive holding, pass interference, and other rules made to spike scoring, so to just look at a low total and cross it off in large field GPPs is not smart. What I do is put these types of stacks in lower $$ GPPs ($3-$44 range). 

E.g. Ben-Juju-Chase-Gio-Boyd OR Ben-Ebron-Chase-Gio-Boyd OR Burrow-T. Higgins-Ebron-Conner-Boyd 

Bengals

I am not investing much in Cincinnati this week at Pittsburgh, other than a little Giovani Bernard, assuming Joe Mixon is confirmed OUT. Pittsburgh has quietly gotten gashed on the ground over its last three games, allowing the most yards per game during that span. Bernard can also get it done as a pass catcher if the script goes against him, catching 8-75-2 in his last two without Mixon. 

Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger was activated Saturday from the Reserve/COVID-19 list (was in close contact, not found positive). Roethlisberger hasn’t practiced all week, so he’ll go through a walkthrough ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Bengals. Head coach Mike Tomlin said Roethlisberger’s knees are “fine.” If he was ruled out (it would be a huge surprise), Mason Rudolph would start and all these passing options become fades. I expect Roethlisberger to play, but it is 2020, and writing up games for a key player to get ruled out and change the entire dynamic is not fun, so I will update this game in full after he is confirmed as the starter Saturday. 

After essentially taking the week off in Dallas (season-low 46.4% snap-count), James Conner is back in another “can’t miss” spot (haha). Cincinnati is dead last in both adjusted line yards and second-level yards. They allowed the Titans backs to approach 200 yards before their bye week. Cincinnati will be without DT Geno Atkins, which is a big blow since the team’s other starting DT D.J. Reader is on IR. This is a classic bounce-back spot at one-third his ownership, as that bad taste is hard to wash out. Conner has averaged 17.5 rush attempts at home this season for 5.2 YPC, compared to 13 for 3.2 on the road. His four home games have yielded 21.6 FPPG compared to 9.2 away. He is a top-five play this week at RB, as we buy while others sell. 

Core plays: Pittsburgh DST, James Conner

GPP only: Giovani Bernard (check back later Saturday for the Pittsburgh passing options)   *SEE SATURDAY UPDATE ABOVE**

SF +9.5. O/U: 48.5
SF: 19.5 | NO: 30

Pace and playcalling

**SATURDAY UPDATE**

An interesting game for the slate, with NO coming in with a 30 point team total. I think we still are getting used to this 49ers team, but they are 19th in pass DVOA, after finishing 2019 in second behind the Patriots. 

Per the Sporting News, the 49ers now have 80 million in salary on IR. Notables include Sherman, Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Jimmy G, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford, Raheem Mostert, Ben Garland, Jalen Hurd, Jeff Wilson, & Ezekiel Ansah

For the regular injury list, CB K’Waun Williams will be out again, as will WR Deebo Samuel and RB Tevin Coleman. Kendrick Bourne should be back along with week 9 hero Richie James, to play alongside Brandon Aiyuk.  River Cracraft and Trent Taylor will also play (questionable tags), who along with the two TEs, Jordan Reed and Ross Dwelley make this a more crowded situation than last week. 

49ers

Nick Mullens is fine if given time, but crumbles under pressure. He has a 117.9 QB rating when clean (4 TDs, 1 INT) and 48.5 under duress (1 TD – 3 INTs). Saints are much better in pass rush than GB, so this could be a long day for Mullens (NO, 8 sacks, and 3 INTs in their last two games).  What makes this even tougher for SF is the Saints run defense (3.44 adjusted line yards allowed per carry), which has funneled teams into the 5th highest pass rate against. 

Jerick McKinnon is my favorite 49ers player, after out-snapping JaMycal Hasty 42 to 15 last week. The script calls for more of the same, and McKinnon is a very talented pass catcher/runner with some decent upside and a safe floor. With that in mind, he is the premier GPP pivot away from the 57% Mike Davis and 20-25% Duke Johnson. Our model currently has him at 5%, which is something considering he is in a similar spot and role. Saints allow 6.3 targets and 5+ catches to RBs this season. His vegas prop is 13.5 carries, 45.5 rush yards, plays 3.5 rec and 22.5 rec yards. Duke is 14.5-54.5, plus 3.5-27.5. Davis is 14.5-48.5, plus 5.5-35.5. Two catches and 13 receiving yards is basically the difference between 65% and 5%. 

Brandon Aiyuk has been priced up to $6.5k and $5.7k (DK), which makes him less appealing than in previous weeks. That said, he is the alpha, and I see no way SF doesn’t end up throwing a lot here. Aiyuk has received 27.5% of team targets in his last two, posting big lines of 6-115-0 and 8-91-1. Marshon Lattimore is an enigma, but can still shut a team’s best WR out, and with Aiyuk being the best option SF has left, it would not surprise me to see them match up quite often. Aiyuk is probably better as a slot WR, which is how he was used more early this season, but injuries have him playing exclusively outside, at least it did in week 9. 

Kendrick Bourne has been activated off the RONA list, the last time he played he caught 8-of-10 targets for 81 yards against Seattle. With Richie James being Mullen’s clear favorite target last week (9-of-13 targets for 184 yards and a touchdown to finish as the WR1 for week 9), and New Orleans not being Seattle, I am not on Bourne. James is a mind fuck. It feels so point-chasey to play him, but again, the script should be identical, with the only difference being Bourne, who is not Jerry Rice. NO is in the classic “let down spot” also, after playing a big national TV game against TB. NO is 7-1 to the OVER this season, with their games combining for 55.5 PPG. 

I wish we could use Ross Dwelley as a punt TE, but I assume Jordan Reed (practiced in full, no injury designation) will have a larger snap share and eat further into Dwelley’s opportunities. The matchup is good, but I just can’t use either of them.

Saints

Drew Brees has been a consistent performer, 6-of-9 games with 18 FP, or more on DK. He just hasn’t exceeded 25 FP which at his daily expensive price is just so-so. 2-3 years ago that would have been enough, but with the amount of 30 and even 40 FP games posted this season, it is no longer. That said, he is more than capable of posting 300 yards and 3-4 TDs, which would get him in that 30 FP range. 49ers have remained solid against the run (3.88 adjusted line yards allowed per carry), but have been getting lit up via the pass. Both RW3 and Rodgers have reached 28+ FP, in addition to the blowout by MIA, where Fitz posted 350-3-0 on just 28 pass attempts. Another counter to the Brees doesn’t provide enough upside is he has been without his WR1 (Michael Thomas) virtually all season. Emmanuel Sanders has also started to get things synced up with Brees, which along with Alvin Kamara is a nasty offense. Jared Cook also offers a nice RZ target for Brees, as does Tre’Quan Smith. Again, the Saints have a 30 team total, so we can’t dismiss a stack like this. 

More on Kamara, who is projected to be 20-25% owned again, his splits are very clear cut with and without Michael Thomas in the LU. He rolls back to the “AWESOME GPP” play, from the MUST PLAY in all formats guy he was without MT. 

One thing Kamara and Brees have to deal with is Latavious Murray and Taysom Hill (5 combined EZ carries and 26 RZ carries, compared to 22 RZ and 6 EZ carries for Kamara. I have said for years that Sean Payton does not give AF about your fantasy team, and that is still a thing. Brees is 19th in EZ targets as a result of all this distribution of wealth. This is not saying Kamara is not a great play, he just won’t be in the cash game or “optimal” LU. 

With so much attention on Adams (rightfully so), Michael Thomas is in a smash spot against San Francisco that allowed outside WRs (Adams, 10-173-1) and D.K. Metcalf (12-161-2). He only played 55% of snaps in a tough matchup with TB and pulled down 5-61-0 on six targets. If he was $7.4k on DK last year he would have been 100% owned, so it is something to see his ownership at 10-12%. 

Emmanuel Sanders has 4 EZ targets to lead the team, but he and Tre’Quan Smith are now options 3 and 4, versus 2-3, which is a big shift in expected usage. Sanders really has looked good, catching 16-160-1 in his last two games on 19 targets. 

Core plays: Jerick McKinnon, New Orleans DST 

GPP only: Michael Thomas (only GPP because I don’t think you should fade Davante Adams in cash and you can’t afford both), Kamara, Brandon Aiyuk, James 

Stack Option: Brees – Kamara – Thomas – McKinnon  OR Brees – MT – Sanders – McKinnon – James 

PHI -4. O/U: 44.5
PHI: 24.5 | NYG: 20.5

Pace and playcalling

These teams have allowed the 1st and 2nd most sacks. The PHI D is 3rd in sacks and NYG 8th, so both of these QBs should be under pressure, which causes turnovers in normal weather (NYG is 27th and PHI 31st in giveaways,). Add some rain and wind and this could be a great spot for the defenses.

Carson Wentz has a 4.6 YPA under pressure with 8 INTs, so again, the pressure and protection will have a big impact on the game. 

Both teams have top-7 rush DVOA grades, but NYG is 30th against the pass (PHI, 15th). If not for my concern with the wind, this sets up very well as a sneaky shootout (both teams have a top-10 pass rate). 

This is a plus matchup for pace also, with PHI 10th in neutral pace, which goes to 2nd when trailing by 7+. NYG would play slower if they could (20th neutral), but they are always down so have a league-average pace. 

These teams are 6th (PHI) and 8th in neutral pass rate, though the Giants have been running more lately (47% last week, 38% on the season).

Weather

Looks like the weather is going to be worse than expected, with the chance of high winds. The wind has been a hot topic lately, some say ignore it completely, some obsess over it. I am in the middle, relying on data as I do with DFS. Years back I had an extensive data article done on the wind at a different site and the data was very conclusive, wind drags down passing much more than rain or snow, and then the combo of the two (any two) drove it down further. Of course, there will be outliers on both sides, these studies take 100s of games and show you the average. My final take, you don’t get difficulty points in DFS, a point in the wind counts the same as a point in a dome. This is an 11-game slate, there are TONS of ways to get contrarian in optimal playing conditions. 

For now, the linemakers don’t seem worried about this game, with the TOTAL staying at 44, with both the public and % of the money flowing to the OVER. 

Eagles

PHI targeted their TEs at a 38% rate with no healthy WRs. It is down to 28.2%, which is still top-5, and likely only that “low” because he and Ertz have been banged up, among other issues for the latter (he runs like a turtle). With no Ertz, it’s only recency bias that has Dallas Goedert’s ownership at a reasonable 8-12%. Usually, if either PHI TE is out, the other is heavy chalk, but the Eagles are coming off a bye, and off a game that saw Goedert catch one pass for 15 yards. I prefer Fant on FD, but on DK, Goedert is $700 cheaper and one of the best of the cheap TEs on the slate..

RB Miles Sanders (knee), WR Alshon Jeffery (foot, calf), and RT Lane Johnson (ankle) are all set to play on Sunday. CB Craig James (shoulder) is the only player ruled out.

Sanders on coming back said, “I feel good. I’ve been doing a great job with my conditioning, rehabbing at the same time. I feel like I haven’t missed a step or a beat or anything like that,” Sanders said. “Practice has been going well the whole week, just trying to finish up today (Friday) strong and tomorrow strong. We’ll see what happens on Sunday.”

Sanders returns with offensive line help, which should improve on the 22nd run-blocking line. Sanders has faced San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and these Giants, who are all in the top-7 in RUSH DVOA.  That said, NYG allowed an eye-popping 23-172-0 to WASH backs in two games through the air, as well as 92 total yards and a receiving TD to Scott in their game in week 7. If the weather does limit deep pass attempts, my hope is Sanders finally gets it going with Wentz. He hasn’t topped 36 rec. yards or 4 receptions, but his targets per game are actually up from 2019 (+1.6 for 5 p/g). There is that risk Boston Scott eats into third-down/passing work, but I will have quite a bit of exposure to Sanders so let’s hope not too much. 

I was all ready to declare week 10 “Jalen Reagor week”, but this weather has me thinking it over. All these Philly receivers are a bit of a wildcard now that so many are healthy. Travis Fulgham has clearly emerged as the WR1, but now Reagor, Goedert, and Sanders are all healthy at the same time. We have to expect Ward to operate from the slot, Boston Scott to be mixed in on 3rd downs, and Richard Rodgers, since the Eagles run so much 12 or two-TE personnel. I have said it 10x, in GPPs, just ignore the weather and stack the game, but you don’t need to put Reager on your main LU.

Wentz is interesting still because he has been running more and the Giants should get him moving with their pass rush. Despite looking terrible at times (30 “danger” plays is 1st), but he still has squeezed out three top-10 finishes, including two top-7 in the last three games without any healthy teammates. 

Giants

The Giants placed RB Devonta Freeman (ankle) on injured reserve after ruling him out. WR Golden Tate (knee) and CB Isaac Yiadom (calf) are listed as questionable but should play. 

Evan Engram has gotten going and is getting high-end usage with 10-10-9 targets in his last three. NYG is targeting their TEs at the 5th highest rate this season, so there is no reason to think this will drop off. Over those three games, he has matched Kelce with his 28.3% target share (63% WOPR). He has a very low 6.38 aDOT which is normally a hindrance, this week it may be useful if the weather is bad. He is in the same tier as Hooper and Goedert as the premier value TEs on the slate (PHI 4th most FP allowed on 6.1 rec p/g). 

Engram has been the TE13 or better in five of his past six games. Engram has reached 50 yards just twice all season with a high of 65 yards, but his usage has gotten encouraging as he has at last nine targets in each of his past three games with at least five receptions in each. Coming off his first touchdown grab of the season last week, the Eagles are allowing 6.1 receptions per game to opposing tight ends, tied for most in the league. Going along with those, they have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends. Engram secured 6-of-9 targets for 46 yards when these teams met in Week 7 and is a back-half TE1 option. 

Wayne Gallman has 54, 62, and 77 yards in the past three weeks with a TD in each. He is losing work to Dion Lewis and Alf Morris so as soon as the TDs dry up, you are left with an empty 6-7 FP. No thanks on the Giants 3-headed RBBC. I am also not chasing the rushing production from Dan Jones, who has 4 games with less than 200 yards passing without weather. That is the thing to remember with these two QBs, they were sketchy AF in perfect conditions so to run them out in the weather is MUCH different than using Arron Rodgers, who has been doing it for years with the assistance of a cannon for a right arm. 

Core plays: Giants DST, Philly DST, Miles Sanders, Evan Engram, Dallas Goedert (I have a good amount of all these guys) 

GPP only: Shepard (I have him on the early slate)

TB -5.5. O/U: 50.5
TB: 28 | CAR: 22.5

Pace and playcalling

Weather

Reports of 15mph winds here which could affect “Noodle-Arm” Tom.  

This game ranks in the middle of the pack for pace, but I like it for DFS and as a full game stack. 

Buccaneers

Tom Brady (Strange to play a pocket passer naked, but I think that’s the play with Brady certain to smash in a bounce-back spot, and all his receiving options healthy/active. If you are an MME player, you can hook him up with different combos of Tampa receivers and Rob Gronkowski

Leonard Fournette has out-snapped Ronald Jones 84-33 the past two weeks due to script and Jones getting thrown in the Arians dog house for fumbling. Regardless, if you are looking to pair Brady with Tampa’s “James White”, that appears to be Lenny. I know it will take big ole’ balls, but I kind of like Jones in a stack with the TB D, with the thought of script going his way and him pounding this CAR run D, who have allowed 145 yards and 11 TDs to backs, for the 5th most FPPG allowed. Keep them in MME only, but I do have 3-4 teams with each back with script in mind (Lenny for a shootout, RJ for a big TB win). 

Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown on the field with Gronk and two RBs really is the troll situation of the year, but in GPPs, I am making a bunch of different combos in hope to nail the right one. Last week was such a cluster for TB, I think we can just toss out, but we can at least look at playing time and alignment. Godwin ran 40 pass routes (3-41-0), playing 74% from the slot, Evans 38 routes (4-64-0), and Brown 33 routes (3-31-0) operated on the outside in 3-WR sets, with Godwin playing outside when they were in 12 personnel. 

Evans ripped this zone D in their previous matchup, but that was without Godwin and of course, Brown on the team. Unlike NO, CAR doesn’t get any pressure on the QB, which is what kills Tom so I think he will sit in the pocket and pick apart the zone for 300 and a couple of scores. 

Panthers

The emergence of Curtis Samuel has 14 targets in his last two, compared to 9 for D.J. Moore. He runs most of his routes from the slot, putting him in a nice spot again against the interior of this TB defense that we just saw get shredded by Drew Brees and the Saints. I am playing these guys in full game stacks, but not anywhere else. See the stack options below, 

CORE: Davis (currently at around 55-60% in GPPs), Brady 

GPP only: Ron Jones/Tampa Bay DST (TB is first in blitz rate and second in pressure rate, which has caused Bridgewater issues), Samuel, Anderson 

Stack Options 

Brady – Davis – Gronk 

Brady – Davis – Fourentte – Evans (can add Samuel here also) 

Brady – Davis – Godwin – Brown – Samuel

Brady – Davis – Gronk – Brown – Anderson

Teddy B – Lenny – Samuel – Evans or Godwin – Anderson 

Brady – Gronk – Brown – Evans (if he goes for 350-4, he can carry 3 receivers)- Davis 

SEA +2. O/U: 54.5
SEA: 27 | LAR: 27.5

Pace and playcalling

Los Angeles is a terrible team for shootouts (19.2 PPG allowed, second), with Rams games averaging a combined 37 points. They are 2-6 to the UNDER this season after starting 2-1. It’s no accident — Los Angeles has played really bad offenses/teams (Washington, the Giants, Chicago, San Francisco), gotten leads, and run the ball (60% rush rate when up by at least 7, eighth-highest rush rate this season). 

Seattle is nothing like those teams, scoring 34.2 PPG (first) and allowing the most plays to their opponents while also limiting them to the lowest rush rate in the league. 

The Rams showed us what to expect if Seattle can get a lead or this game goes to a shootout when they fell behind in Miami. They cranked it up to a 72% pass rate and played at a lightning-fast pace (21 seconds per play). 

Seattle games have been the polar opposite of LA’s, averaging a combined 64.6 points per game after the 78-point extravaganza in Buffalo. 

As outlined many times, Seattle is second in neutral pass rate and third in pass rate when up by at least 7. They play at a good pace — 11th-fastest neutral — but stay at that pace when trailing, which can be frustrating. If Seattle can score early again (16.7 PPG in the first half, 8.5 for LAR), this one should be a great game for DFS.

Seahawks

The big strength-versus-strength matchup that stands out is Seattle’s deep passing attack and the Rams stingy pass D on deep passes (16 passes of 20-plus yards allowed, first). Los Angeles has allowed the fewest plays of 20-plus yards, and lowest completion rate on pass attempts over 15 and 20 yards. Looking at their defensive heat map from Sharp Football, it doesn’t take long to see how good they have been on throws over 15 yards. 

Speaking of short and intermediate pass routes, it’s Tyler Lockett week once again. I know he let us down last week at high ownership, but I would play him 10-of-10 times in that spot, in a game that produced 78 points, against a team that funnels targets inside in Buffalo. I know the process-over-results mantra has been beaten into the ground, but this is one of those spots you can feel fine about a play that didn’t pan out. 

He finished with 4-40-0 on seven targets, but just missed on two TDs, getting stopped at the 1-yard line and just missing a long TD pass from Russell Wilson. If those go our way, 5-75-2 feels pretty good. Troy Hill is just a guy, an undrafted veteran ranked 71st in coverage rating at Player Profiler, allowing a 75% catch rate when targeted. 

You know you are red hot when you score 29 DK points and it’s considered an off game, due to four turnovers (2 INTs, 2 lost fumbles) and a loss. If you watched the game, you know that Wilson left some points on the field when Lockett was tackled at the goal line and DeeJay Dallas punched it in. This is not a great matchup, but these are the situations where defenses don’t matter, as Wilson can excel against any D when he is hot. Last year it was a mixed bag against the Rams, 245-0-1 on the road and 269-4-0 at home. But this is 2020, and there are no fans out west and this is not the 2019 Seattle offense in terms of both pace and pass rate. Kyle Allen ripped them for 311-4-1 and another TD on the ground, which is what we are hoping for this week from Wilson. Other than Dak Prescott in Week 1, Los Angeles has faced hot garbage at QB. The Rams have generated sacks (No. 9 adjusted sack rate) but are only 21st in pressure rate. 

The Seahawks RBs are still a mess. I think we can safely rule out Chris Carson, but Seattle has trolled us with him before when he hasn’t practiced all week. Carlos Hyde (hamstring) was limited, and could return to join Dallas, Travis Homer and possibly another cameo from everyone’s favorite ex-Ravens RB, Alex Collins (yes, that Alex Collins). This is likely a situation to just avoid all together, and another reason to like the passing attack, assuming Carson is OUT. 

DK Metcalf showed us once again that shadow coverage is overrated. Metcalf only saw Tre’Davious White for 54.5% of his routes (3-65-0 on 5 targets), with White staying home versus traveling with Metcalf. According to Jeff Ratcliffe’s shadow coverage index, driven by our own FTN Data in partnership with Armchair Analysis, Jalen Ramsey has not shadowed since Week 1.

Ramsey said he won’t shadow Metcalf in Week 10. Per Jourdan Rodrigue on Twitter, he said, “I’m sure I’ll guard him. I’m sure I’ll guard probably all of their receivers at some point in the game.” With the Rams playing a lot of zone coverage, and him not shadowing since Week 1, I’m not worrying about Ramsey. Metcalf is a cyborg and runs plenty of routes in the sweet part of the Los Angeles D (chart below: Sharp Football), so keep him in your Rams/Seahawks stacks. That said, I prefer Lockett if your question is “pick one.”

Rams

Jared Goff is going to be script- and opponent-dependent. The Rams would prefer to manage his dropbacks this season, down 4 per game from last year to 35. He hasn’t been great when clean, under pressure or on deep attempts. He has five games as the QB17 or lower and three as the QB11 or better, with two ceiling games of 28.3 and 31.2 fantasy points on DK. He has thrown four INTs in four games, while fumbling four times (losing two). None of that matters here, as Seattle is the defensive gift that keeps on giving, allowing 30 fantasy points per game this season to QBs and over 62 to WRs. Seattle has allowed the most passing yards in league history through eight games according to ProFootballTalk. More from PFT — Seattle is allowing 471 total yards a game, which puts them on pace for 7,539 yards allowed, which would shatter the record set by the 2012 Saints (7,042 yards). They are the new definition of a rising tide that raises all boats; this week it’s Goff’s turn to pad his stats. 

The Seahawks will be without both of their starting cornerbacks. I know they have struggled, but both Shaquill Griffin (concussion/hamstring) and Quinton Dunbar (knee) were both officially ruled out. The defense will also be without defensive tackle Bryan Mone, who suffered a sprained ankle during Sunday’s loss to the Bills. Seattle plans to activate defensive tackle Damon Harrison, who will make his Seahawks debut. Harrison used to be a legit run stopper, but that is already the strength of this D. Unless the Big Dog is going to play CB, he isn’t going to help. 

Cooper Kupp gets the publicity as the Rams slot WR, but Robert Woods also plays 45% inside. Seattle has been atrocious on these routes, allowing 12.5 targets per game for 9.3-124.0-0.3 (23.2 FPPG). Woods is used a lot around the goal line on misdirection plays and designed runs, now with five games of at least carries and with a pair of rushing TDs. Coming off a bye, count on the Rams having one or two of these plays up their sleeve, with Woods likely involved. He has seen between 5 and 10 targets in every game this season, averaging 6.8. You’d expect the targets to be closer to 10 if this game goes like we want, making him a top-five option for me at WR on the slate. 

Kupp has been limited all week by a wrist injury, but had the injury tag removed Friday after getting a full practice in. Kupp received a career-high 20 targets (11-110-0) as the team tried to come back in Miami — again, this is the script we want for these Rams players. Kupp is more expensive than Woods, and projected to be about 5-7% more owned, putting him just behind Woods in my ranks, but I will probably have equal exposure to both when I am done making my lineups. 

Josh Reynolds (5% projected ownership) is a sneaky play with Kupp and Woods being the headliners at 12-15%. Reynolds quietly emerged before the Rams bye week, seeing 8 and 9 targets, including two end-zone targets. If this game is a shootout (the scenario you are rostering Goff for), then Reynolds is a solid bet to come along for the ride at just $3.5k. Reynolds is my favorite “value” WR on the board, matching Woods in routes and seeing two more targets in Miami. Again, Reynolds is $3.5k ($5k on FD) and 5% (or less), playing as full-time WR against Seattle. 

Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett will be a TE by committee again. Everett is my highest-owned TE in best ball because I kept taking him with my final pick, so I am a bit biased, but I like him again this week as a min.-priced TE punt on FD. That said, I would not mess with either of these guys on your main lineup.

I don’t have interest in the Rams running attack, with Darrell Henderson, Cam Akers and Malcolm Brown all active and the Hawks funneling teams into the pass.

Core plays: Tyler Lockett, Jared Goff, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Josh Reynolds

GPP only: Russell Wilson/DK Metcalf stack, Gerald Everett 

SUNDAY AM UPDATE

Top Stacks: 

PITT (not running it back)

ATL/NO 

NE/HOU

Sneaky stack: CINN/WASH

Waiting on Teddy B news, but do like that game as well. 

CASH/CORE PLAYS

Core (FD): CAM – COOK – DAVIS – JACOBY – DIONTE – F1 – HILL 

Core (DK): HILL – COOK – DAVIS – DIONTE – JACOBY – A. PETERSON – DALLAS G 

The guys I have a lot of not in the CASH CORE (3-Max + SE)

CLAYPOOL – JUJU – EBRON 

Keenan (LAC stacks – I like Perriman as the run back, but Mims is good if you need the cap space)

GIO 

ANDREWS ON DK 

N. HINES 

MILES SANDERS ON DK 

RYAN – RIDLEY -JULIO stacks w/ KAMARA and value plays 

Justin Jefferson or Thielen on any team you FADE COOK 

Brandin Cooks is a nice value on DK 

Underweight – Duke (HOU RB fade, Part X), Marvin Jones, Lamar, ZEKE. I have some Rodgers/Adams/Jones stacks, I worry I don’t have enough as I am not sold on the INDY D being the 85 Bears, Conner, Pittman (Colts other than Hines)

Low(er) owned one-offs:  D. Henry, Gibson, Kerryon Johnson, Harris, Hamler, Hockenson, C. Samuel