NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
While it isn’t as bad as Week 1, there is still some very soft pricing around the DFS community ahead of Week 2. Every single Wednesday here at FTN Daily, I will try to identify the top value options of the slate. Last week went pretty well, as we highlighted Tee Higgins and Sam Darnold.
Let’s see what Week 2 has in store.
Quarterback | Week 2 DFS values
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Las Vegas Raiders
($5,900, DraftKings)
The Steelers offense once again struggled to start the 2021 season, but that was expected. Buffalo stacked the box against Pittsburgh once again and dared the Steelers to throw it deep, which they once again could not do. However, I do think there is potential in Week 2, as the Steelers head back home to host the Raiders. Las Vegas made some plays on defense in Week 1, but this is still a unit that surrendered the second-most points per drive a season ago (2.75). And in Week 1 against the Ravens, Las Vegas missed 11 tackles, the most in the NFL, which could bode well for Ben Roethlisberger if he continues to throw the ball short and let his pass-catchers make plays. But there is a path to some downfield passing here, as the Raiders were bottom-10 in air yards allowed last season.
Joe Burrow @ Chicago Bears
($7,100, FanDuel)
Joe Burrow put together a solid Week 1 performance against the Vikings Sunday, passing for 261 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It was interesting to see Cincinnati go so run-heavy in this game, but they found themselves trailing on just 14% of their plays, which led to a huge game from Joe Mixon, who played extremely well. Over the course of the season, the Bengals will have way more pass-heavy game scripts and if they can’t find success running the football against the Bears this week, Burrow could drop back 35-40 times. If that is the case, he could have a very good game, as this Chicago secondary is quietly very exploitable. They surrendered a league-leading 12.0 yards per pass attempt in Week 1 and over 80% of the yardage they allowed came through the air. The Bengals receivers create a rather large mismatch against the Bears corners in this game and that could really bode well for Burrow.
DFS RB value picks for Week 2
Ezekiel Elliott @ Los Angeles Chargers
($6,200, DraftKings)
I was legitimately stunned to see this price tag on Ezekiel Elliott. Sure, he was obviously disappointing in Week 1, but Dallas had a clear game plan to ignore running the football right into Tampa Bay’s elite defensive front. They also needed Elliott’s pass-protecting skillset, as the Buccaneers blitzed over 53% of the time, the highest mark in football. And while the 13 touches were underwhelming, Elliott still played 83% of the snaps and ran 44 pass routes, the most among any running back from Week 1. Dallas is clearly going to be a pass-happy team, but Elliott is going to see around 20 touches per game more often than not, starting this weekend against the Chargers.
Javonte Williams @ Jacksonville Jaguars
($5,500, FanDuel)
Javonte Williams didn’t have an amazing rookie debut, but I was encouraged by his usage. Sure, he and Melvin Gordon essentially split the snaps and carries, as both players logged 50% of the snaps. But Williams did handle 56% of Denver’s rushing attempts, while Gordon was at 44%. Gordon had the long touchdown run but Williams saw more carries and more short-yardage work. If looking for a value running back on FanDuel, Williams is worth a look. Jacksonville just allowed three different Texans running backs to find the end zone last week and in 2020, opposing offenses ran the football 48.4% of the time against the Jaguars, the highest rate in football. The Broncos are favorites here and if they are ahead by quite a bit, Williams likely gets the carries over Gordon.
Week 2 wide receiver DFS value plays
Tyler Boyd @ Chicago Bears
($4,700, DraftKings)
It was Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon doing the heavy lifting for the Bengals offense in Week 1, but Tyler Boyd is in a very nice spot to get back on track. He faces a Bears secondary that doesn’t have an answer for this group of pass-catchers. Boyd primarily remained in the slot, lining up there just over 82% of the time, which sets up nicely for this matchup. He’ll see plenty of coverage from Marqui Christian, who really struggled Sunday night, allowing five catches on six targets for 85 yards and a pair of touchdowns in slot coverage against the Rams. Boyd still ran a route on 85% of Burrow’s Week 1 dropbacks and if the Bengals throw the ball more in this game, Boyd will benefit. He is one of my favorite value receivers on the slate this weekend.
Mike Williams vs. Dallas Cowboys
($5,600, FanDuel)
After an 8-catch, 82-yard, 1-touchdown performance last week, Williams enters Week 2 as the WR42 in pricing over on FanDuel. That is an easy play for me, especially in a game with one of the highest totals of the slate against an awful pass defense. Dallas just allowed Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown to combine for 14 catches for 230 yards and a pair of touchdowns. We saw Trevon Diggs shadow Mike Evans on around 80% of his routes, while moving into the slot to cover him 12 times. Williams has similar size to Evans, so I wonder if Diggs covers him in this game. Williams only went into the slot 22% of the time in Week 1 so we likely see Diggs cover both Williams and Keenan Allen in this game. Still, you have to love the game environment here, as well as Williams’ usage. After offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi talked up how involved the X receiver will be in his offense, Williams saw 12 targets in his first game. We also saw him used a bit differently, sporting an aDOT of 10.0 yards, which was significantly lower than his 15.8 aDOT from a season ago. If he continues to work more areas of the field, Williams will see more consistent target totals. I absolutely love him this week and for the rest of the season.
Week 2 DFS values – Tight end
Tyler Higbee @ Indianapolis Colts
($4,100, DraftKings)
I’ll admit it: It appears I was wrong about Tyler Higbee this season. Even with Gerald Everett gone, I was worried about how many routes Higbee would run after finishing outside of the top-20 among tight ends in routes a season ago. However, Higbee’s Week 1 usage was incredible, as he logged 100% of the snaps on Sunday night, while running a route on 26 of Matthew Stafford’s 27 dropbacks. He ultimately finished with a solid line of five catches for 68 yards and now faces a Colts defense that plays a ton of zone defense, which tends to benefit tight ends. The Colts just allowed a touchdown to Everett last week, while Will Dissly caught all three of his targets for 37 yards. With Stafford under center, this Rams offense looks elite and Higbee’s usage is too.
Adam Trautman @ Carolina Panthers
($4,500, FanDuel)
Adam Trautman was a popular sleeper entering the season, and while Juwan Johnson scored a pair of touchdowns in Week 1, Trautman is still the top tight end in this Saints offense. He logged 51 snaps to Johnson’s 12, while running a route 72% of Jameis Winston’s dropbacks. Trautman also saw 26% of the team’s targets in this game and I love his FanDuel price tag, as it is lower than tight ends such as Hayden Hurst, Tyler Kroft, C.J. Uzomah and Jordan Akins, while he is also $600 cheaper than teammate Johnson, who only ran nine pass routes last week.
