NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Fantasy football is all about the matchups, especially when it comes to WR vs. CB. Remember when fantasy matchup analysis used to be “Team A gives up the most fantasy points to wide receivers”? Well, we’ve moved from analog to digital and now look at matchups on an individual level.
Each week, I dig through the FTN Data to identify the actual coverage tendencies for all 32 NFL teams and compile this information in the WR/CB Matchups Tool. The information is then distilled down to give you the biggest upgrades and downgrades this week.
Before we get into this week’s information, we should note a few things about shadow coverage. For starters, shadow coverage is relatively rare in the NFL. In fact, so teams don’t use it at all and instead just let their corners play their sides. We track all shadow situations in our Shadow Index.
A shadow situation occurs when a corner travels with a wide receiver around the formation. Shadows can occur for an entire game or only part of the contest. A shadow situation do not mean the corner is on the receiver 100% of the time. This isn’t backyard football. Receivers move around and occasionally will avoid the shadow. Also, a shadow situation is not always a bad thing for receivers. If the corner is not particular good, the receiver could actually benefit from the shadow.
Matchup upgrades | Week 2 WR/CB matchups
Davante Adams vs. Detroit
The Packers offense got off to a rough start in Week 1, but the Lions defense has the cure for what ails them. Not only was Detroit one of the league’s worst secondaries on paper entering the season, but the Lions also unfortunately lost starting corner Jeff Okudah to a season-ending injury in the opener. The means Davante Adams will see his share of Ifeatu Melifonwu. The rookie third-rounder is a big-bodied defensive back who will almost certainly get picked on by Aaron Rodgers. Adams is in store for massive volume this week.
Keenan Allen vs. Dallas
Speaking of massive volume, Keenan Allen saw a healthy 13 targets in Week 1. While Dallas did use Trevon Diggs in shadow coverage in the opener, it’s highly unlikely the Cowboys have him travel with a slot receiver. That means plenty of Jourdan Lewis for Allen. You might remember Lewis from last Thursday night when he was getting torched by Chris Godwin. Lewis allowed five catches for a not-so-nice 69 yards and a score to Godwin in that contest.
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett vs. Tennessee
Arizona absolutely torched the Titans secondary in Week 1 with both Janoris Jenkins and Elijah Molden surrendering scores in their coverage. Meanwhile, Seattle put up four passing scores in their season debut. It doesn’t take advanced calculus to figure this one out.
Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown vs. Atlanta
Dallas attempted to take Mike Evans out of the game last week with shadow coverage from Trevon Diggs. Tom Brady then proceeded to crush the Cowboys with Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Evans isn’t likely to see the same treatment this week against the suspect Falcons secondary and is poised for bounce back. Of course, Godwin and Brown should also have no problem against this unit. The four corners who played for Atlanta in their opener allowed a combined 10 catches on 12 targets.
Other matchup upgrades: With Odell Beckham still sidelined, Jarvis Landry figures to remain the top target for the Browns. He’s in play as a high-volume option out of the slot against Desmond King, who allowed seven catches on eight targets in Week 1. … Jacksonville may already be on the clock in the 2022 NFL Draft, so let’s pick on them every week. Jerry Jeudy is out for the next 4-6 weeks, leaving Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler as the top receivers. All three are in play this week against a Jags secondary that allowed 190 yards on 12 catches in the opener. … Cincinnati used Chidobe Awuzie as a shadow in Week 1, so we could see him on Allen Robinson a bunch this week. This is a prime example of shadow coverage being a good thing, as Awuzie saw a healthy 10 targets in the season opener.
Matchup downgrades | Week 2 WR/CB matchups
Stefon Diggs vs. Miami
Miami didn’t use shadow coverage in Week 1, but there’s certainly the chance they do so against the Bills. That would mean Xavien Howard on Stefon Diggs, which is not good for business. Even if there’s no shadow, Diggs will see his fair share of Howard. The veteran corner allowed just three catches for 20 yards in the opener and isn’t likely to see many balls thrown into his coverage from Josh Allen.
Brandin Cooks vs. Cleveland
The veteran wideout showed in Week 1 that he’s clearly the top receiving option in Houston with a hearty 132 yards on five catches. Of course, that was against the Jags, and he now has to face one of the league’s best secondaries. While we don’t expect shadow coverage, there really isn’t a good matchup to be found across the Cleveland defensive backfield. Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome both played well on the outside in the opener. Brandin Cooks figures to take a step back this week.
Terry McLaurin vs. NY Giants
While the Giants do have their deficiencies, they do have one of the league’s better secondaries. In Week 1, we saw James Bradberry shadow Courtland Sutton and do a good job of taking him out of the game for Denver. While Bradberry isn’t likely to travel with the speedy McLaurin, the Washington receiver will also have to face Adoree’ Jackson on the other side. The matchup plus a downgraded quarterback situation with Taylor Heinicke under center creates a bearish outlook for Terry McLaurin this week.
Other matchup downgrades: Tyrell Williams is in the concussion protocol and may not play this week. However, he gets a rough matchup if he does. Jaire Alexander on the other side of the field isn’t to be taken lightly. … Zach Pascal found the end zone twice last week, but he’s a hard fade in Week 2. Both Pascal and Michael Pittman will have their hands full with the Rams secondary. Pascal is especially unappealing, as he figures to see plenty of Jalen Ramsey out of the slot. … Jacksonville is going to have to throw a ton this season, which will be good in most weeks. However, it’s tough to like D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones against a stout Denver secondary.
