SuperDraft NFL breakdown for Week 2

Welcome to the weekly breakdown for SuperDraft DFS Multiplier contests for Week 2 of the NFL season. 

Here’s a quick primer and strategy guide. Each week, I’ll provide a slate overview and recommended plays at each position.

Week 1 recap

Each week, I’ll kick things off reviewing the winning lineup of SuperDraft’s largest GPP. In Week 1, they called it the Kickoff, but going forward, it’s the Red Zone. It’s a $20-entry contest with $50,000 to first place, about 14,500 total entries with a max of 150 entries per person.

A wild winning lineup that didn’t even try traditional correlations, but congrats to vito2388 on the $50k takedown. The correlation was essentially just mashing in players on teams and games that went nuts — the RB and WR from the Vikings and three low-multiplier studs from the Chiefs/Browns game. Most assumed the Chiefs would work with a lead most of the game, but the opposite happened. The Browns had a 22-10 lead heading into the second half as Patrick Mahomes peppered his two big dogs with nonstop targets. 

Six of eight players in his lineup were under 15% rostered with Travis Kelce and Dalvin Cook as the only chalky plays — nothing odd about his plays. The high multiplier Chase Edmonds came in under 5%, as did a contrarian recommendation of mine last week, touchdown machine Adam Thielen. 

Comparing this winning lineup with a whopping 230.8 fantasy points to the winner of the $100-entry Gunslinger GPP, that one was taken down with just 201.5 points with the only common player between the two lineups being Kelce. Gunslinger winner petteytheft89 rolled out Trevor Lawrence (1.65x), power running trio Christian McCaffrey (1x), Alvin Kamara (1.15x), Joe Mixon (1.4x) and the wideout group of Brandin Cooks (1.45x), Marvin Jones (1.5x) and Stefon Diggs (1.15x). Unlike the Kickoff/Red Zone winner whose average roster percentage came in at 14%, the Gunslinger’s winning lineup was closer to 25%.

You may recall from last week’s piece that last season’s average multiplier in winning Red Zone lineups was 1.49. This first week of this season’s average multiplier was much lower: 1.26x in the large-field GPP and 1.28 in the Gunslinger. Something for us to keep track of as the season progresses but this was clearly a week where many of the studly lower-multiplier plays came through. More importantly, and a big reason why we saw such a low average multiplier last week: most of the higher-multiplier chalk ended up busting. A 22.3% Raheem Mostert left his game in the first quarter, a 25.8% Kyle Pitts only scored 7.65 SDFP (SuperDraft fantasy points) and a 19.3% Marques Callaway ended up with just 3.52 SDFP. A 1.15x Calvin Ridley busted with just 8.74 SDFP at nearly 26% as well. 

For future lineup builds, make sure you take that extra step to either view projections with SuperDraft multipliers built in or calculate yourself to help you identify the players at each position who are best to target for our lineups.

Let’s run through some of the top plays for Week 2.

Quarterbacks

• Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (1.15x score multiplier)
• Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (1.05x)

Based on this week’s multipliers, it’s the type of slate where the lineups that cash will probably have an ace QB with a lowish (1-1.25x) multiplier. Two guys particularly stick out in the slate’s highest total game (Cowboys/Chargers, 54.5) that is expected to be a barnburner. Either Justin Herbert or Dak Prescott could easily end up as the top raw points and by multiplier QB on this slate. Dallas losing stud pass rusher Demarcus Lawrence to a broken foot only should provide Herbert with more time to make decisions and open the possibility of a true ceiling outcome. This feels like a shootout in the making that go well over the 54.5-point projected total with each guy racking up 300-plus yards and multiple touchdowns with ease. Prescott will be the more popular of the two, especially with folks tempted to pair him with a shockingly priced 1.4x CeeDee Lamb. I’ll build GPP stacks with both guys and would literally flip a coin for them to start in my 50/50 lineup.

• Mac Jones, New England Patriots (1.65x)

Jones is the one guy who sticks out among the mid to high multiplier quarterbacks. Facing a pass funnel offense as six-point favorites, Jones is in prime position to follow up on his solid NFL debut (29-for-39, 281 passing yards, 1 TD, 0 INT) against a stout Miami defense. We picked on the Jets’ secondary with Sam Darnold last week and the result was a solid one. The Jets boast a strong run defense but are trotting out three weak, inexperienced cornerbacks. Perhaps Jones can connect with Jakobi Meyers for his first career TD.

• Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1.2x)

The Buccaneers’ 32-point Vegas total is the slate’s highest as this tilt presents a massive mismatch between their top-five offensive line and the Falcons’ bottom-five defensive unit. Brady should have a clean pocket throughout the contest to, yet again, wave his magic wand and connect with his bevy of talented options at will. We sometimes (rightfully) concern ourselves with rostering quarterbacks whose teams are monster favorites (Bucs, -12). But there’s no reason to expect Tampa to pump the breaks and establish the run even with a big lead. Brady’s 311.5 Pass Yards betting prop is the slate’s highest and he’s the only QB with pass TD player prop of 2.5 (the rest are all at 1.5).

Others to consider

• Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (1.3x) – The Niners allowed 33 points to the lowly Lions last week and their top CB Jason Verrett is out. Possible spot for Hurts to rack up fantasy points trying to keep up and typically provides a solid base of points with his running prowess. Multiplier still reasonable.
• Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (1.4x) – The Bears’ secondary was toasted for 312-3 with a massive 12.3 YPA to Matthew Stafford last week. They’ll be outmatched by the Bengals’ trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins as we’ll likely witness some big splash plays. Solid GPP play.

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Running backs

Core plays

• Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (1.2x)
• Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (1.45x)
• Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams (1.55x)
• Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers (1.35x)

Solid-floor cash plays

• Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers (1x)
• Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (1.1x)

Of course, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara can put up 25 raw points in a half-PPR format in any given week. There’s no reason to think they don’t achieve this feat yet again as their teams’ primary options both on the ground and as pass-catchers. The issue this week is that we have so many other better-priced backs who can exceed them with their multipliers. 

Steelers’ rookie Najee Harris is first to come to mind at a silly 1.45x tag facing a Las Vegas defense that was shredded for a Week 1 high 189 yards on the ground. Harris didn’t fare well in his debut but did play 100% of snaps. The Rams’ Darrell Henderson should draw the bulk of the carries for the Rams and is tempting in all formats, especially with two-touchdown upside.

But it’s Nick Chubb and Austin Ekeler who really draw my attention this week. Yes, Chubb has to share the backfield with Kareem Hunt, but the matchup doesn’t get any better than 2020’s worst run defense (Houston Texans) with the Browns 12.5-point favorites at home. It’s a massive ceiling spot for Chubb with 200 yards within reason. 

Ekeler may not get much love with all the options at the position. He’s a fantastic option at a much-too-affordable 1.35x with this high Vegas total. I’m particularly intrigued by the massive overreaction of the market with his zero targets last week and wouldn’t be shocked to see him see double-digit targets in this matchup.

GPP only 

• Elijah Mitchell (1.75x)/Trey Sermon (2x), San Francisco 49ers
• Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1.4x)
• Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos (2x)
• Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals (1.65x)

Elijah Mitchell was the talk of fantasy town over the past week, and many will simply auto-click his name when they see his 1.75x multiplier. It’s one thing if Trey Sermon is inactive again. If he’s not, I’d be concerned about being over-exposed to Mitchell for the potential letdown spot as the chalk. I don’t think it’s wise to play Sermon if you’re only making a couple of lineups but if building multiples, you’ll certainly want to have some exposure at his max multiplier. Ditto Denver’s Javonte Williams, who will come in under 10% rostered again, especially after his mediocre debut and Melvin Gordon’s monster outing. 

Many won’t touch Ronald Jones, but it’s the perfect matchup and projected game script for him to go ham. Don’t forget that he was one of only five backs who averaged more than five yards per carry last season. 

If you’re building 150 lineups, perhaps add in a touch (3-5%) of the Eagles’ Kenneth Gainwell (1.9x). Bump that exposure up even more if Miles Sanders misses the game. I’m also going to sneakily fire up some Larry Rountree (Chargers, 2x) on some GPPs but warn you ahead of time that it’s a risky, gut play and not one I’m using in my main lineup. But the kid is scoring a TD this Sunday.

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Wide receivers

Core plays

• CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys (1.4x)
• Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1.2x)
• Marquez Callaway, New Orleans Saints (1.8x)
• Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (1.5x)
• Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots (1.65x)

CeeDee Lamb will be popular, and I won’t have the audacity to exclude him from my main lineup, chalk and all. Teammate Amari Cooper could end up having the bigger game, but the 0.2 difference in their multiplier is tough to pass up in this matchup. Lamb hit for 7-104-1 on 15 targets in the opening game and the group is well-rested. 

Playing the game of timing Mike Evans usually isn’t a difficult one. Tom Brady controls narratives on his own (as we saw with Rob Gronkowski’s big game in prime time), and it’s now time to grease the squeaky wheel of the big man who was left out of the fun in Week 1. Evans doesn’t fit the mold of a cash play given his lack of week-to-week predictability, but I’d be shocked if didn’t top 80 yards and get into the end zone at least once.

Marquez Callaway was a full fade for this column last week, and now we should all hop on board for the coming-out party. His multiplier remains high and a much easier path to smashing without a stout corner like Jaire Alexander breathing down his neck. Though Tyler Boyd has the best on-paper matchup among the Bengals’ wideouts, it’s Higgins who should score most fantasy points from this group. He switched his number from 85 to 5 earlier in the week, scored a touchdown last week and looks to build on a phenomenal rookie season where he saw at least seven targets in 10-of-14 full games.

Jakobi Meyers paced the Patriots with nine targets in the season opener as he hopes to finally find the end zone in his 31st professional football game. Mac Jones will do his best to make it happen as it’s certainly achievable against the decrepit Jets’ secondary. Nelson Agholor is faster, runs more deep routes and is more of a home run play as we could consider stacking the trio of Jones/Agholor/Meyers in some tournament lineups. 

Solid-floor cash plays

• Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1.45x)
• Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys (1.2x)
• Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers (1.1x)
• DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (1.15x)
• DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles (1.5x)
• Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers (1.3x)

“Antonio Brown, solid floor guy” may seem like a misnomer on an offense with a plethora of weapons in a game that may not see a ceiling of pass attempts on the Bucs’ side of things. But the reasonable multiplier and weak opposing defense makes him an obvious strong play in Week 2. Keenan Allen may somehow fly under the radar because his multiplier is near the bottom range and teammate Mike Williams is cheap (1.6x), coming off an 8-82-1 effort on 12 targets. Mix in the fact that Ekeler will find his way onto rosters as well and perhaps folks overlook one of the league’s most consistent receivers of the last half-decade in the ultimate matchup. Foreseeing Williams tied up with the Cowboys’ best corner (Trevor Diggs) makes me think this will be more of a Keenan and Ekeler game.

I’m Down with Metcalf, Smith and Johnson as solid plays this week, but it’s Metcalf who most intrigues me, as Russell Wilson’s targets are so heavily concentrated on just he and Tyler Lockett. Sure, it could be Lockett Week again, but it’s more likely Metcalf shines this Sunday. Metcalf has at least 20-30 pounds and 3-5 inches of height on Tennessee perimeter corners Kristian Fulton and Elijah Molden while Lockett tangles in the slot with Janoris Jenkins. Expect the Titans to bounce back after last week’s disappointing loss and keep this one competitive. This game’s 53.5 total is the second highest on the slate.

GPP only

• Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals (2x)
• Nelson Agholor, New England Patriots (1.7x)
• Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers (1.6x)
• Tim Patrick, Denver Broncos (1.55x)
• Terrace Marshall, Carolina Panthers (2x)
• Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles (1.8x)

I’ve already stated my case for concern with Williams and will take my L’s if it backfires. He won’t crack my main lineup, but I’ll certainly want to mix him in on some Chargers/Cowboys stacks. I’m definitely interested in Agholor and will be pairing him up with Meyers and Jones in one of my three primary lineups. Rondale Moore didn’t hurt lineups last week with his 4-68-0 (17.6 SDFP with the 2x multiplier). Cardinals’ QB Kyler Murray has four competent wideouts to target (in addition to RB Chase Edmonds). With DeAndre Hopkins tied up with stingy veteran Patrick Peterson, Moore should hopefully surpass the five-target mark he saw in his debut. Any of the Broncos wideouts could smash, but Tim Patrick is a personal favorite of mine as a 6-foot-4 beast who has a nose for the end zone similar to Jags’ Marvin Jones. I’d be shocked if he didn’t dance at least once Sunday.

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Tight ends

Core plays

• Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders (1x)
• Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (1.5x)
• Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints (2x)
• Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (1.7x)

Lots of folks will be on the Waller Train this week with his Week 1-leading 19 receptions still fresh in our minds from Monday night. QB Derek Carr is simply locked in on the guy and will do all he can to help unseat Chiefs’ Travis Kelce as the league’s No. 1 tight end. Keep in mind that Carr targeted Waller on his first read 13 times in that game. He should have no issue consistently beating out linebacker Devin Bush and any other Steeler trying to defend him.

That 1.5x on Tyler Higbee is sweet and might be tough to pass up. Same with Adam Trautman’s stone minimum of 2x coming off an 82% snap share compared to two-touchdown Juwan Johnson’s 19.4%. Trautman saw six targets in that outing though this week the matchup isn’t all that frisky with stingy LB Shaq Thompson. Nevertheless, I’ll be plugging Trautman in many of my lineups at that silly tag. Higbee was in on every snap last week and could be in for a big week if Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are tied up by the Colts’ talented corners.

Cole Kmet is a strong play primarily for the cheap 1.7x tag. But also, if we believe QB Andy Dalton’s hesitancy to launch deep balls last week bleeds into this week. They played a tough Rams’ D last week, but Dalton didn’t have any pass attempts over 20 yards and perhaps is sneakily playing it conservatively to not turn the ball over too much and quickly lose his job to Justin Fields. Either way, it all benefits the big man, Kmet who faces a defense that can’t guard big tight ends and is very capable of putting up a great box score with six-plus targets.

GPP only

• Noah Fant, Denver Broncos (1.4x)
• Jared Cook, Los Angeles Chargers (1.6x)
• Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (1.4x)

Noah Fant led all Denver pass-catchers with eight targets while tying Jerry Jeudy for most receptions (six) in their opening duel against the Giants. He was in on 77% of offensive snaps last week and should spend most of this week’s snaps running routes as he did last season (94% of the time). No Jeudy means more attention from QB Teddy Bridgewater for the Fant-Man.

Jared Cook outsnapped fellow Charger TE Donald Parham by very little (47 to 41) but Parham didn’t complete his lone target while Cook caught five-of-eight balls in route to a solid, yet scoreless box score. We saw the Cowboys get smoked by Rob Gronkowski in the season debut and Cook has been a top TE target in the league scoring seven, nine and six touchdowns in each of his past three seasons. He’s a big, visible target for Herbert to look for in the red zone.

No issues whatsoever going back to the well on Kyle Pitts after his less than stellar debut. There of course could be that shocking scenario we’ve seen with the Falcons before where they surprisingly keep up with a good team a week after getting their skulls bashed in. The most likely scenario is a full beatdown at the hands of Brady and company. A big lead on the scoreboard for Tampa would certainly lead to lots of garbage time for Pitts and Calvin Ridley to pile up fantasy points. 

Make sure you tune in to FTNDaily’s SuperDraft Sunday Study, 11 a.m. ET Sunday with myself, host Zac Graham and a special guest from the FTN staff.

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