Between The Numbers: NFL DFS Week 17

NFL DFS is always a game of ownership and theory — that is not to say that we need to fade every player who is chalk, or popular in DraftKings and FanDuel DFS contests. However, we do need to determine whether we like the ownership a particular player is getting, and whether we should pivot to a different player.

This article is going to be me breaking down the slate and covering my favorite plays and stacks while talking about ownership, and where we can find solid leverage and low-owned pivot plays. Keep in mind that I am going to try and cover the most important pieces of the slate and to do that I am going to go based on stacks and positions.

It goes without saying Week 17 is a weird time in the NFL season. Some teams are fighting for their lives while some have their players sitting or limited. It is easily the least projectable week of all as there can even be scenarios in which a team can see that another team in the league is winning or losing, and then decide to sit or rest players.

It is a week that I would look to try and embrace variance, but more importantly look to identify teams/players with motivation. Whether it be because of postseason aspirations, or even statistical/award driven. I typically don’t look into narratives too much, but finding players with certain milestones or goals to achieve this week can be helpful in determining how motivated a player/team is to perform.

One thing to note is that with the new playoff format, only the No. 1 seed gets a bye, and home-field advantage is somewhat limited with no fans. So teams might not care much if they are No. 2 or 3 seed, which may be the reason why the Steelers (who are in play for the No. 2 seed) are resting Ben Roethlisberger.

SUNDAY UPDATE (2:30 AM EST) – UPDATES CAN BE FOUND BELOW. TIERS ARE UPDATED, AS WELL AS MORE POSITIONAL/OWNERSHIP NOTES ADDED.

12 PM EST UPDATE – Matt Barkley expected to play "meaningful snaps" Allen is unplayable. Darwin Thompson expected to handle the "bulk of the work" for the KC backfield, a big boost for him and that brings him into the 4k RB conversation as well.

Please be sure to check out my ownership/player rater sheet to get a more hands-on look at some of my numbers every week!

Motivation

NFC

The Packers, Seahawks, and Saints should all be motivated to win, as they could all end up with the No. 1 seed. With the Seahawks and Saints a game back of the Packers, they won’t have news on whether or not the Packers have won since Green Bay plays on the later slate of games.

The Buccaneers have clinched a playoff berth but could potentially play for the right to the No. 5 seed, as that seed will play the worst division winner in the NFC… aka the winner of the NFC East. That alone could be something worth playing for, but it’s hard to know for sure.

The 9-6 Rams and 8-7 Bears and Cardinals all need to win to guarantee their spot in the playoffs.

The Giants and Cowboys play each other in the early slate of games on Sunday. Both teams will be 100% motivated since the winner will win the NFC East in the event that Washington loses Sunday night.

AFC

The Chiefs have no motivation this week. They have the No. 1 seed secured and their key starters will sit.

The Bills and Steelers are playing for the second seed. The Bills appear to be playing hard for the seed, but the Steelers will rest Big Ben. If the Steelers begin to lose early in the game, we could easily see the Bills sit Josh Allen and other starters because they would then have the second seed locked. As I mentioned. before, playing for the two seed is the least important its ever been, with only the number one seed getting a bye.

The Titans, Dolphins, Ravens, Browns and Colts currently sit in seeds 4-8, and all are 10-5. I could break down and tiebreakers, but ultimately that doesn't matter for DFS as all five of these teams need to win and should be playing with 100% motivation.

Milestones/achievements/awards

Lamar Jackson needs 98 rushing yards to reach 1,000.
Mike Evans needs 40 receiving yards to reach 1,000.
Justin Jefferson needs 90 yards to set the record for most receiving yards by a rookie WR.
Adam Thielen needs one receiving TD for the Vikings to be just the second team in NFL history to have two players score 15 TDs each in a single season. (Dalvin Cook is tied for second in the NFL in TDs, while Thielen is third in the league in receiving TDs with 14.)
Travis Kelce can pass Jason Witten for the second most-receptions by a TE in a season. He would need 12 for the all-time record, but he looks likely to sit.
Aaron Rodgers currently has the third-highest single-season QBR of all-time. He can also tie Tom Brady for the most games with at least 3 passing TDs and is 6 TDs shy of 50 on the year.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is 9 catches shy of 100, Chase Claypool needs one TD to set the Steelers rookie record and Diontae Johnson could surpass 100 receptions and 1,000 yards with just 15 catches and 172 receiving yards. JuJu and Johnson are likely to be limited.
Jeffery Wilson needs 105 rushing yards for 1,000 career rushing yards.
Darren Waller needs 6 receptions to break the Raiders franchise record for receptions in a season.
Robert Tonyan needs two TDs to break the single season TE record for TDs.
Tyler Lockett can earn $200k in incentives if he collects 46 more receiving yards and another $100k if he scores two receiving TDs.
The following WRs need fewer than 100 yards to surpass 1k on the year: Brandin Cooks, Keenan Allen, Corey Davis, A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, Robert Woods.
The following RBs need fewer than 100 yards to surpass 1k on the year: Jonathon Taylor, Kenyan Drake, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott, Ronald Jones, and Melvin Gordon (needs 107).

That’s all I can find for now. Adam Schefter usually tweets out a ton of contract incentive stuff, which you can take for what you want. The team's postseason motivation will always trump over any personal milestones/incentives, but sometimes it's helpful to know what certain people have to play for.

I don’t have a particularly good lean on how teams that are done no matter what will fare this week, as for projections unless there was word of them sitting I projected as normal. Those scenarios will be a game of finding news and reports.

Stacks

Here is the stack rater for this week:

I am likely to stay away from the Bills — if the Browns beat the starter-less Steelers during the 1 p.m. game, the Bills have absolutely nothing to play for, and they might decide to take it easy on starters anyway given the difference between the two and three seed is miniscule. That is something that the stack rater does not account for, so I will be staying away from the Bills as a stack.

Minnesota and Houston are both in the top four, and while they don’t have anything to play for, that might actually be fine for them. It doesn’t sound like any starters outside of Dalvin Cook will be sitting, and Deshaun Watson is not even on the injury report after he was injured at the end of the Texans’ Week 16 game. It comes down to this for me: They both have great matchups, and have not been playing for anything for the last couple of weeks, so why stop now?

The Colts have 100% motivation this week, as they need to win and have a fantastic matchup against Jacksonville. I am more likely to just use someone like Jonathan Taylor, as Philip Rivers has only surpassed 20 DK points three times this year, and just once since Week 8.

The Ravens are usually a team I don’t love to stack, but they are in a must-win game against the lowly Bengals. Lamar Jackson is probably the safest QB on the slate, and with all of the value, paying up for Jackson and his weapons can be done fairly easily.

The Titans are also playing for their playoff lives, and in lineups without Derrick Henry I will definitely have interest in Ryan Tannehill and company. I think Houston plays this one straight up, perhaps motivated to keep Tennessee out of the playoffs, and this game could turn into a shootout. Vegas seems to agree as this game currently has the highest total of the week at 56.

Tampa has its playoff spot locked up but is playing for the right to see the NFC East champion in the playoffs could provide them enough motivation to try and win this one, and last time the Bucs saw the Falcons, Tom Brady threw for 390 and two TDs on his way to 26.4 DK points.

Green Bay will be fighting for the No. 1 seed, and with the Bears fighting to make the playoffs, this game should be one with full motivations, but if this game, or the Saints/Seahawks games get out of control we could see the Packers starters sit down early. They do have a 27-point team total though.

The Giants are in a must-win against the Cowboys and they are very affordable, Daniel Jones is just $5.1k on DraftKings.

Stack ranks

Tennessee Titans/Houston Texans
Minnesota Vikings
Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay Packers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Honorable mentions: Seattle Seahawks (Better on FD), New York Giants

Ownership and leverage

Quarterback

Here are the current ownership projections and player ratings for QBs:

There are no real ownership concerns here. It’s a 15-game slate and QB is often spread out in terms of ownership. One thing that stood out was Russell Wilson’s price on FD — at just $7.5k he is just too cheap and in a must-win situation.

My favorite value QBs on DK: Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford

One guy to talk about is Kyler Murray. The Cardinals are also in a must-win game, and he is getting no ownership. The matchup is brutal for him and he is expensive, but the upside is always there with this offense.

I think it makes most sense to spend up a bit for QB this week with all of the value at RB/WR, but if you are looking for the cheapest of the cheap QBs; John Wolford is a dual-threat QB in a must-win game, Drew Lock needs a good performance to get in the good graces of teh Denver front office, and Chad Henne gets to fill in for Patrick Mahomes. Daniel Jones would be my preferred option over all of these guys, but there are some punts available. Although Jones is the only one I plan to use much of.

QB ranks

Running back

Here are the current ownership projections and player ratings for RBs:

Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor leading the way in ownership is no surprise. They are both in must-win scenarios, are on the teams with the two highest Vegas implied totals on the slate, and both favored to win by Vegas.

Aaron Jones has been left out in the cold in terms of offensive production on this team sometimes, but with the Packers being favored by nearly a touchdown and having a 30-point implied total, he is interesting after the price drop to $7.1k on DK.

Right back to D'Andre Swift for me this week. The Lions don’t have anything to play for, but they haven’t had anything to play for since 2008. They brought Swift back from injury and have used him for over 60% of the snaps, 50% of the teams carries and 14% of targets.

Alexander Mattison is set to fill in for Dalvin Cook this week, and while he might split some work with Mike Boone, I project him to lead the backfield, and that is always enticing in a matchup against the Lions.

Mattison isn't the only guy who will get increased usage due to injury. Dare Ogunbowale, Ty Johnson, Rodney Smith and Malcolm Brown all expect to have at least one of the RBs on their team to be sidelined.

~~With Alvin Kamara out, Latavius Murray should be in line for a big day. His ownership should skyrocket but will grade out as a solid play despite that.~~

UPDATE: The entire RB room in New Orleans outside of Ty Montgomery have been deemed close contacts, so they will all be out. The Saints will be left with Ty Montgomery and then practice squad guys as their backfield here. They are going to try to win this game since they have a chance at the number one seed, which makes Montgomery interesting. Here is the minumum price for RBs and has a good matchup against the Panthers.

Let's break down these $4k RBs:

– Ogunbowale is left to compete with Devine Ozigbo for snaps. Ogunbowale played 70% accounted for 14 carries and 5 targets last week, while Ozigbo saw just 20% of snaps and had one carry and one target. Things can change, but based on last week It looks like this is going to be a backfield firmly in favor of Ogunbowale.

– Malcolm Brown could be the lone RB in the Rams backfield if Cam Akers is ruled out. I think he would be the preferred option of the public, but we might see more attention fall towards Ty Montgomery. UPDATE: Cam Akers is expected to try and play, with that being the case I am staying away from this backfield. Make sure Akers is offically active before setting lineups!

– Ty Johnson is going to see the increased role this week due to Frank Gore and La'Mical Perine being out, Josh Adams is still there, but based on Week 13 where Johnson saw 22 carries and Adams had 8, I would expect to see Johnson lead this backfield.

– Rodney Smith started to cut into Mike Davis' role over the last couple of weeks, playing 30% and then 34% in weeks 15 and 16. With Davis and CMC out, Trenton Cannon could also facotor in for some touches here, but overall Smith should have the advantage based on him getting into games prior to these injuries. It should also be expected that Curtis Samuel will factor into the backfield split as well.

– Ty Montgomery could very well be the only RB available in this game for the Saints depending on what they do with their practice squad. We should expect Taysom Hill to factor into the run game a bit more this week, but overall Montgomery doesn't appear to have a lot of competition for the work here this week.

As you can see, there is a real chance that all of these RBs who happen to be in the same $4-4.5k price range end up being featured backs this week. With that being the case, playing the lowest owned guys makes a ton of sense. All of these guys will end up projecting decently and potentially all fairly similar, so my goal this week is to try and find some leverage in this range. I will updated on the ownership of this group Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Update: Carlos Hyde has been ruled out, with Chris Carson removed from the injury report this is a pretty massive bump for him. The Seahawks are fully motivated to win as they have an outside shot at the No. 1 seed, and they currently have a 26 implied team total and are 7 point favorites.

Here are the ownership projections for the $4k RBs:

Montomgery – 28%

Rodney Smith – 7%

Dare Ogunbowale – 4%

Ty Johnson – 9%

Malcolm Brown – 13% (But is someone I am off of if Akers ends up playing)

Montgomery is the clear cut best value option at RB on the slate based on my projections, but Dare and Johnson both have paths to workhorse roles and that makes them interesting pivots. I will likely still have more Montgomery than any other value RB, but pivoting to others is something I will definitely do in some lineups. Montgomery should have a good receiving role which gives him a nice floor.

One thing about all of these $4k RBs is that it's going to bring down ownership on a ton of good mid-tier RBs; Carson, Swift, Mattison, Chubb, Ekeler all projecting for under 15%. If you are hesitant on Ty Montgomery it makes a lot of sense to pivot to one of these mid-tier RBs or even one of the other $4k RBs. Ty Johnson and Dare are my favorite pivots in that range.

(Tiers based on DK pricings but still apply to other sites.)

Expensive tier ($7k+)

Mid-tier ($5k-6.9k)

Value tier (Less than $5k

Ty Montgomery
Ty Johnson
Dare Ogunbowale
Rodney Smith
Darwin Thompson

Wide receiver

Here are the current ownership projections and player ratings for WRs:

I understand the Davante Adams fade this week, as fading any chalk on this crazy week of variance is viable, but he is putting up historic numbers that are underlined by historic usage, largely due to the fact that they use him so much in the red zone. If you wanted to fade, playing Aaron Jones is an interesting pivot.

I am not really worried about any other ownerships this week, it’s a large slate and nobody is projecting for more than 15% ownership.

Underowned guys I like the most: A.J. Brown, Adam Thielen, Brandin Cooks, Marvin Jones, Tyler Lockett.

The guys projecting as the best value plays for me: Laviska Shenault (D.J. Chark and Collin Johnson out), Marvin Jones, Richie James, Josh Reynolds, Jakobi Meyers, Keelan Cole.

Expensive tier ($7k+)

Mid-tier ($5k-6.9k)

Marvin Jones
Brandin Cooks
Robert Woods
Corey Davis
Mike Williams
Value tier (Less than $5k)
Laviska Shenault/Keelan Cole
Richie James
Josh Reynolds
Jakobi Meyers

Tight end

Here are the current ownership projections and player ratings for TEs:

With all of the value this week, getting up to a TE is easy, so if you have the salary for Darren Waller or George Kittle, I think they are clearly the highest-ceiling TEs on the slate. That said, there are also some solid salary savers.

Evan Engram has a great matchup against Dallas in a must-win game and is underpriced at $3.7k. He is most lilely going to be my highest owned TE of the week largely due to his price tag on this slate.

There are no ownership concerns for TEs this week.

Expensive tier ($5k+)

Mid-tier ($3.5k-4.9k)

Value tier (Less than $3.5k)

Irv Smith
Jordan Akins
Dalton Schultz

Defense/special teams

Cleveland Browns
Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Chargers
New York Jets

Core plays

Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

Overall, my goal is to have either Henry or a Titans stack in every one of my main lineups. The matchup is fantastic, the Titans need a win, and they are favored and have the highest implied total. Everything is pointing in the right direction. Also, Henry needs 223 rushing yards to reach 2,000 on the year. Difficult? Yes, but if there’s anyone in the NFL who can do it, is Henry.

Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks

With the news of Carlos Hyde being out, Carson is now my favorite RB in this mid tier. The Seahawks are going to try and win this, and the 49ers are without a handful of their starters on the defensive side. Carson should be in line for most of the work out of the backfield on a team that is favored and projected to score 26 points by Vegas. Over the last four games, Carson has accounted for 56 carries and 17 targets. With Hyde being out, this should lock in Carson's floor of touches, and potentially even improve his ceiling.

Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions

He has been playing well, and if Matthew Stafford suits up, I love Jones this week. The matchup is one we love to target, and Jones is underpriced at just $5.1k on DK. Jones is still in play is Chase Daniel suits up, but I would definitely prefer to see Stafford start this week. UPDATE: Stafford is expected to start.

Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings

This one might need some editing as the weekend news rolls in, but unless we hear news of Mattison being limited, I plan to fire him up a ton this weekend. He has been removed from the injury report entirely heading into this smash matchup and with others flocking to cheaper volume or others in this range, Mattison is going overlooked. UPDATE: I added Carson as a core play as well, Mattison is still a solid core play in my eyes, but I prefer Carson.

Good luck to everyone this week. Please check back on both this article and the ownership/player rater sheet for updates as I tend to make late-night lineup adjustments that could affect the article as well.