2024 FFPC Playoff Challenge Picks, Plays, Strategy

The Fantasy Football Players Championship Playoff Challenge is back for the 2023-2024 NFL season. The main event is a $200 entry fee with a top prize of $500,000 and $1.4 million in total prize money. There’s also a $35 entry fee contest with $100,00 to first!

You can take a look at the official rules and scoring settings here, but the primary thing to know is that you will pick a total of 12 players — 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 4 Flex, 1 K, 1 DST — but only one player from each team is allowed. So if you take Patrick Mahomes at QB, you can’t have any other Chiefs players on your team.

You set your lineup once (before Wild Card weekend), and it stays that way for the whole playoffs. So choose carefully. I’ll once again compete under the team name LoechnerNFL. There are 7,800 total entries — come take me on! 

Key Things to Consider in the FFPC Playoff Challenge

• This is a large-field tournament with nearly 8,000 people, so you’ll have to get contrarian/gain leverage with some of your picks. It’s tempting to just “pick the best players” — because you can — but game theory matters here.
• You obviously want players who will play the most games, but choosing the right one- and two-offs is also extremely important. You’ll have rooting interest in 12 teams, which will quickly whittle to 8, 4 and 2. The teams thin out quickly.
• Correlation matters in this tournament. You’re not going to accurately predict every single game flow of every single possible outcome of the whole playoffs, but you can still correlate your teams to an extent, and you should.
• You will need to “soft fade” two teams (pick a DST and K for those two teams) and full fade another two. This means you’ll want to correctly predict four of the six teams that will lose during Wild Card Weekend. (Ideally, your DST and K aren’t taking up roster spots after the first round.)
• Super Bowl points are worth double. In nearly all cases, you’ll really want to try to have a QB playing in the Super Bowl. TEs get 1.5 points per reception, which rises to 3.0 in the Super Bowl, too. Something else to consider.

Odds of Each Team to Make the Super Bowl

Here are the odds of each team to make it to the Super Bowl, as of Wednesday (courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook):

AFC

• Baltimore Ravens: +120
• Buffalo Bills: +250
• Kansas City Chiefs: +500
• Miami Dolphins: +1000
• Cleveland Browns: +1200
• Houston Texans: +1800
• Pittsburgh Steelers: +4500

NFC

• San Francisco 49ers: -125
• Dallas Cowboys: +320
• Philadelphia Eagles: +800
• Detroit Lions: +800
• Los Angeles Rams: +2000
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +2800
• Green Bay Packers: +4000

Those are the betting odds. But what about the FTN projections? Here’s each team’s odds of advancing to the Conference Championship game and the Super Bowl, courtesy of FTN’s DVOA playoff projections. 

How Many Games Each Team Is Projected to Play in the 2023 NFL Playoffs

The below are courtesy of FTN’s Jeff Ratcliffe and his playoff projections article.

Let’s go through thoughts on a team-by-team basis.

Baltimore Ravens (1)

Top Options: Lamar Jackson (QB)
Other Options: Gus Edwards (RB), Zay Flowers (WR), Isaiah Likely (TE), Mark Andrews (TE)

• The bye week hurts the Ravens players a little.
• People typically try to get four games out of their QB, but Jackson has such great odds of playing in the Super Bowl at double points — and the skill position players are spread out so much in Baltimore — that I expect him to be extremely popular.
• Mark Andrews’ looming return plus Isaiah Likely’s dominance in his absence makes both of them viable.
• I’d skip the other skill players like Odell Beckham and Rashod Batemen; they may splash occasionally but are unlikely to go on a playoff run worthy of one of your roster spots.

San Francisco 49ers (1)

Top Options: Christian McCaffrey (RB), Deebo Samuel (WR), George Kittle (TE)
Other Options: Brandon Aiyuk (WR), Brock Purdy (QB)

• The bye week hurts the 49ers players a little.
• CMC will probably be one of the top plays of the slate.
• 1.5 PPR for TEs plus double that in the Super Bowl makes Kittle a Tier 1 play.
• Samuel’s high ceiling gives him a slight edge over Aiyuk.
• Purdy will be contrarian given the other elite skill players in San Francisco.

Buffalo Bills (2)

Top Options: Josh Allen (QB)
Other Options: James Cook (RB), Dalton Kincaid (TE), Stefon Diggs (WR), Gabe Davis (WR), Khalil Shakir (WR)

• Allen may end up as the most-rostered QB given Buffalo’s favorable odds of making the Super Bowl and the fact he’d play in four games if they do make it.
• Kincaid firmly in play with the boost to TE scoring.
• Diggs won’t be highly rostered given his struggles over the second half of the season.

Dallas Cowboys (2)

Top Options: CeeDee Lamb (WR), Dak Prescott (QB)
Other Options: Tony Pollard (RB), Brandin Cooks (WR), Jake Ferguson (TE), Brandon Aubrey (K)

• Lamb was the best player in fantasy football the last two months.
• Prescott is the Josh Allen of the NFC for this contest: No. 2 seed, potential to play all four games, solid odds to make Super Bowl.
• Aubrey is an interesting soft fade option if you think the Cowboys get bounced by the Packers.

Kansas City Chiefs (3)

Top Options: Travis Kelce (TE), Patrick Mahomes (QB)
Other Options: Rashee Rice (WR), Isiah Pacheco (RB), Harrison Butker (K)

• Kelce had a bad year by his standards, but playoff Kelce may still be a beast.
• Mahomes gives you access to four potential games and, of course, he’s Mahomes and this is the playoffs.
• Both Rice and Pacheco have shown strong floors and high ceilings.
• If you think KC struggles offensively and loses in the first two rounds, Butker makes sense as a contrarian play.

Detroit Lions (3)

Top Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR)
Other Options: Jahmyr Gibbs (RB), David Montgomery (RB), Sam LaPorta (TE), Jared Goff (QB)

• St. Brown is going to be an extremely popular player in this contest.
• LaPorta’s health knocks him from the top-tier Lions choices, but if he goes, he’s very interesting with the boost TEs get.
• Goff ripping off four straight strong games feels less-than-likely, but you can consider him given Detroit’s decent Super Bowl odds.

Houston Texans (4)

Top Options: Nico Collins (WR), Texans D (DST)
Other Options: Ka’imi Fairbairn (K), Dalton Schultz (TE), Devin Singletary (RB), C.J. Stroud (QB)

• The Texans are a soft fade option with their D and Fairbairn.
• C.J. Stroud would be the first rookie QB to make it to the Super Bowl.
• Collins is a true target-monster and should be a popular player in the contest.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4)

Top Options: Mike Evans (WR), Rachaad White (RB)
Other Options: Chris Godwin (WR), Baker Mayfield (QB), Chase McLaughlin (K)

• Evans has hit a high ceiling so often this year it’s impossible not to call him the top options in Tampa.
• White came on strong down the stretch and he caught many passes.
• The Bucs are also a soft fade option with McLaughlin.

Cleveland Browns (5)

Top Options: Browns D (DST), David Njoku (TE), Amari Cooper (WR)
Other Options: Jerome Ford (RB), Joe Flacco (QB), Elijah Moore (WR), Dustin Hopkins (K) (Riley Patterson if Hopkins can’t return healthy)

• If the Browns make the Super Bowl, it’s either because of their defense or Flacco.
• Cooper (health pending) and Njoku are both viable even if the Browns are one-and-done given their high ceilings.
• Moore is in play if Cooper misses.
• Hopkins and Browns D are the Browns soft fade options.

Philadelphia Eagles (5)

Top Options: A.J. Brown (WR), DeVonta Smith (WR)
Other Options: Jalen Hurts (QB), D’Andre Swift (RB), Dallas Goedert (TE), Jake Elliott (K), Eagles D (DST)

• The injury-riddled Eagles went from 10-1 to just a 1.3% chance of making the Super Bowl, per DVOA.
• The slim odds are why Hurts is not a “top option,” but if you think Philly makes it back to the big game, Hurts is definitely in play.
• Given the injuries, full-fading Philly is in play (the FTN Bets projection model for this game might surprise you).

Miami Dolphins (6)

Top Options: Tyreek Hill (WR), Raheem Mostert (RB)
Other Options: De’Von Achane (RB), Jaylen Waddle (WR), Tua Tagovailoa (QB), Jason Sanders (K)

• Injuries have hit Miami’s defense in full, making a one-and-done playoff appearance more possible than it should be for this team.
• Hill and Mostert have insane ceilings and are good plays regardless of how many games you think Miami plays.
• Tua is in play only if you think Miami makes the Super Bowl.
• Achane and Waddle are the lower-rostered pivots off of Hill and Mostert.

Los Angeles Rams (6)

Top Options: Kyren Williams (RB)
Other Options: Puka Nacua (WR), Cooper Kupp (WR), Matthew Stafford (QB), Tyler Higbee (TE), Rams D (DST), Brett Maher (K)

• Kyren will get his even if the Rams are one-and-done.
• Nacua and Kupp are obviously also viable and will be lower-rostered given Williams’ expected rostership
• Maher is the best soft fade option of the group.
• Higbee is the contrarian pivot off the big dogs, but you should only consider it if you think LA loses to the Lions.

Pittsburgh Steelers (7)

Top Options: George Pickens (WR), Diontae Johnson (WR)
Other Options: Chris Boswell (K), Najee Harris (RB), Jaylen Warren (RB), Pat Freiermuth (TE)

• Full fading the Steelers is in play (they are 10-point underdogs).
• Pickens and Johnson are both in play, as we expected Pittsburgh to be losing by a lot in the first round (but keep in mind, Buffalo gave up the seventh-fewest fantasy PPG to WRs this year).
• Boswell is the soft fade option — Pittsburgh D against the red-hot Bills seems too contrarian.

Green Bay Packers (7)

Top Options: Aaron Jones (RB), Jayden Reed (WR)
Other Options: Jordan Love (QB), Christian Watson (WR), Dontayvion Wicks (WR), Romeo Doubs (WR), Anders Carlson (K)

• If Love continues to play lights-out, the Packers could give Dallas a run for their money.
• Reed has been on fire and will be the most popular Packers player.
• Watson returns from injury but has a high ceiling given his TD potential.
• Tough to play Green Bay D against Dallas in Dallas even as a soft fade option.