Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The NFL doesn’t need the help. We’re all going to watch the playoffs, and we’d do it even if we did end up with a Mason Rudolph/Mike White matchup for the game. But let me just pitch an idea to you: Kansas City Chiefs WR Ja’Marr Chase.
In baseball, the Dominican Winter League has a playoff postseason draft, where the playoff teams get to borrow players from the eliminated teams for the postseason only, after which the players go back to their original teams. Obviously that’ll never happen in the NFL (or MLB), but also obviously … man, that’d be exciting.
So, with a thousand hat tips to the great guys at @CespedesBBQ who did this for baseball last fall, today, Mike Randle and I will give each NFL playoff team (Mike NFC, me AFC) players from the non-playoff teams in a draft, with areas of need heavily influenced by DVOA. Four rounds, snake draft, best record-to-worst record (so the Ravens get a special bonus for being the best team). This is as everyone stands today, so if a player is hurt, he’s not going to get picked.
Let’s go. See the whole draft board at the bottom, but first we’ll go pick-by-pick.
NFL Playoff Draft
Round 1
Pick 1: Baltimore Ravens — Sauce Gardner, CB, New York Jets
The Ravens don’t have a glaring weakness, but the secondary has fallen on hard times, and Sauce Gardner might be the best in the game right now. — Daniel Kelley
Pick 2: San Francisco 49ers — Bernhard Raimann, T, Indianapolis Colts
The main weakness of the 49ers is their interior offensive line, which was exposed early in the season by the Browns. The key to beating San Francisco is pressuring Purdy with just four lineman, an identical plan to defeating the Patriots during their dynasty. Bernhard Raimann is one of the best all-around offensive lineman in the NFL. — Mike Randle
Pick 3: Dallas Cowboys — Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
It shocked me that Dallas did not add a running back in the preseason, instead choosing to give the majority of backfield touches to the diminutive Tony Pollard. Their running game has struggled all season, so let’s add one of the best rushers in the NFL in Jonathan Taylor to this explosive Cowboys offense. — Randle
Pick 4: Detroit Lions — Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
Sam LaPorta is unlikely to play against the Rams due to a knee injury suffered in Detroit’s season-ending win over Minnesota. Swap in athletic second-year tight end Trey McBride, who posted only five fewer receptions with an inferior Arizona offense. — Randle
Pick 5: Buffalo Bills — Maxx Crosby, EDGE, Las Vegas Raiders
There’s an argument for giving them a receiver, but add this piece to the defense and you take that much of the burden off. Maxx Crosby might have been the Defensive Player of the Year on another team in another year. — Kelley
Pick 6: Kansas City Chiefs — Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
When the great guys at CespedesBBQ did this for baseball, they simply gave the Rangers and the woeful Texas bullpen four relievers. They literally said they sorted the MLB leaderboard by saves and just went down the list. I’m not saying I’m doing the same with the Chiefs and receiving yards for this exercise, but … it might be close. — Kelley
Pick 7: Cleveland Browns — Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
Joe Flacco‘s been a great story, but this Browns team with a better quarterback could be dynamite. — Kelley
Pick 8: Philadelphia Eagles — Pat Surtain, CB, Denver Broncos
Philadelphia’s 29th ranked defense per DVOA is very much in need of immediate help. Insert one of the best cornerbacks in the league in Denver’s Pat Surtain. — Randle
Pick 9: Miami Dolphins — Quenton Nelson, G, Indianapolis Colts
The health questions surrounding Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and half the defense did make this something to ponder, but ultimately the Dolphins have an obvious weakness at left guard, and Quenton Nelson might be the game’s best. Easy call. — Kelley
Pick 10: Houston Texans — Dexter Lawrence, DI, New York Giants
Dexter Lawrence might have been the game’s best interior defender in 2023, and this Texans team could make real use of that skill. — Kelley
Pick 11: Los Angeles Rams — Riq Woolen, CB, Seattle Seahawks
Riq Woolen had a rough start to this sophomore season but is still a good cover CB who garnered Pro-Bowl honors just one year ago. — Randle
Pick 12: Pittsburgh Steelers — Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
The Steelers … with an actual quarterback? A Steelers team that is actually fun to watch? Be still my heart. — Kelley
Pick 13: Tampa Bay Buccaneers — DeForest Buckner, DI, Indianapolis Colts
DeForest Buckner would fortify the interior defensive front of Tampa Bay, which will be needed against an Eagles offense struggling to find consistency in the passing game. — Randle
Pick 14: Green Bay Packers — Quinnen Williams, DI, New York Jets
Green Bay’s run defense is their biggest weakness, and it gets addressed with the addition of the Jets elite defensive tackle. — Randle
Round 2
Pick 1: Green Bay Packers — Derwin James, S, Los Angeles Chargers
The Packers defense needs a ton of help, and Derwin James would be a superb addition against Dallas’ passing attack. — Randle
Pick 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Jaycee Horn, CB, Carolina Panthers
We fortified the Bucs front seven with DeForest Buckner, now let’s give them an elite CB like Jaycee Horn to defend Jalen Hurts through the air. — Randle
Pick 3: Pittsburgh Steelers — Jaylon Johnson, CB, Chicago Bears
With the quarterback question answered with Kyler Murray in Round 1, now we address cornerback, pairing Joey Porter with Jaylon Johnson to form a formidable 1-2 punch. — Kelley
Pick 4: Los Angeles Rams — Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Rams offense ranks third in offensive DVOA over the second half of the season. Adding the athletic Engram to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua seems almost unfair. — Randle
Pick 5: Houston Texans — Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
2023 was Nico Collins‘ coming-out party, with Week 18 the enormous cherry on top. But with Tank Dell done for the year and Noah Brown and Robert Woods some combination of inconsistent and injured, giving C.J. Stroud another weapon to work with would be huge for their playoff potential. — Kelley
Pick 6: Miami Dolphins — Trey Hendrickson, EDGE, Cincinnati Bengals
The injuries to Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb and Andrew Van Ginkel have been crushing to the Dolphins’ hopes. Let’s start to put it back together with Trey Hendrickson, who finished No. 2 in the league in sacks in 2023. — Kelley
Pick 7: Philadelphia Eagles — Khalil Mack, LB, Los Angeles Chargers
Philadelphia has a ton of injuries on offense, but their defense is the biggest disappointment entering the postseason. — Randle
Pick 8: Cleveland Browns — Kolton Miller, T, Las Vegas Raiders
The Browns’ remaining tackles are something like their fifth and sixth choices on the season. Kolton Miller‘s been a bright spot for the Raiders the last few years, so let’s see if he can stop the bleeding at that position in Cleveland. — Kelley
Pick 9: Kansas City Chiefs — DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
Another receiver coming to the Chiefs. Justin Fields was the best quarterback DJ Moore had ever played with — give him Patrick Mahomes and he might cry. — Kelley
Pick 10: Buffalo Bills — Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
The Bills are reasonably shallow at receiver already, and that only gets worse if the already unreliable Gabe Davis can’t go in the Wild Card Round. Pair Chris Olave with Stefon Diggs and watch the fireworks. — Kelley
Pick 11: Detroit Lions — Marshon Lattimore, CB, New Orleans Saints
Detroit needs secondary help against the Rams and potentially Cowboys or 49ers. — Randle
Pick 12: Dallas Cowboys — Braden Smith, T, Indianapolis Colts
I gave Dallas an elite running back with their last pick, so now we add Braden Smith to help open running lanes while keeping Dak Prescott comfortable. — Randle
Pick 13: San Francisco 49ers — Chris Lindstrom, G, Atlanta Falcons
Teams that have success against San Francisco have been able to pressure Brock Purdy with just four lineman. Chris Lindstrom makes that much harder. — Randle
Pick 14: Baltimore Ravens — Derrick Brown, DI, Carolina Panthers
Derrick Brown was the bright spot in Carolina in 2023. Let’s put him on a strong-but-not-invincible defense in Baltimore. — Kelley
Round 3
Pick 1: Baltimore Ravens — Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Gus Edwards, Justice Hill and (somehow) Dalvin Cook are the Ravens’ backfield in the playoffs after injuries to J.K. Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell. Put Bijan Robinson there and … so very exciting. — Kelley
Pick 2: San Francisco 49ers — Christian Barmore, DI, New England Patriots
We solidified the offensive line, let’s give the 49ers DT Christian Barmore, who produced a suberb season for a woeful Patriots team. — Randle
Pick 3: Dallas Cowboys — Kendall Fuller, CB, Washington Commanders
Detroit exposed this Dallas season in the near-upset during Week 17. Kendall Fuller finished as the fifth-best overall cornerback per PFF. — Randle
Pick 4: Detroit Lions — Devon Witherspoon, CB, Seattle Seahawks
Devon Witherspoon finished the regular season as PFF’s fourth-best overall cornerback, with a top-15 rushing defense grade as well. — Randle
Pick 5: Buffalo Bills — Montez Sweat, EDGE, Chicago Bears
Montez Sweat led both the Commanders and the Bears in sacks this season because of the midseason trade. He probably wouldn’t be able to overtake Ed Oliver‘s 9.5 to lead the Bills as well in a playoff run, but he’d sure give it a shot. — Kelley
Pick 6: Kansas City Chiefs — DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans
Last one, I promise. Imagine how the 2023 season might have gone if the Chiefs had signed DeAndre Hopkins when he was on the market last summer? — Kelley
Pick 7: Cleveland Browns — Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
If he’s healthy, Amari Cooper is an elite receiver, but Elijah Moore is no guarantee, and the rest of the receiver room is lacking. Let’s give new Browns quarterback Justin Fields another star weapon. — Kelley
Pick 8: Philadelphia Eagles — David Onyemata, DI, Atlanta Falcons
The Eagles run defense declined dramatically over the course of the season. David Onyemata fixes that immediately. — Randle
Pick 9: Miami Dolphins — Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears
Assuming Jaylen Waddle is back healthy for Miami, there probably isn’t a wide receiver you could add to the roster who would command many targets. But the same isn’t true at tight end, where Durham Smythe is just a guy. Cole Kmet has become an upper-tier tight end, and another receiving weapon would help. — Kelley
Pick 10: Houston Texans — Darious Williams, CB, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Houston run defense is very solid (Jonathan Taylor in Week 18 notwithstanding), but the pass defense is a bit less impressive. Now that he’s back healthy, Derek Stingley is a very strong corner, but the Texans could use another one. Darious Williams allowed only a 69.6 passer rating in coverage in 2023. — Kelley
Pick 11: Los Angeles Rams — Grover Stewart, DI, Indianapolis Colts
Grover Stewart was suspended for six games for violating the league’s PED policy, but he finished the season ranked fifth in run defense per PFF. — Randle
Pick 12: Pittsburgh Steelers — Christian Darrisaw, T, Minnesota Vikings
The Steelers have a very average offensive line. It’s not going to cost the team in the postseason, but it isn’t going to be the reason Pittsburgh wins either. Christian Darrisaw has shined in Minnesota the last two years. — Kelley
Pick 13: Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Quinn Meinerz, G, Denver Broncos
Tampa Bay’s rushing offense was one of the worst in the NFL, and Quinn Meinerz grades out as one of the league’s best run-blocking guards. — Randle
Pick 14: Green Bay Packers — Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs missed the last four games of the season with an injury, but I’m guessing that had more to do with impending free agency. If the Raiders made the playoffs, Jacobs would be on the field. He is sent to Green Bay to team with Aaron Jones, replacing a limited and ineffective AJ Dillon. — Randle
Round 4
Pick 1: Green Bay Packers — Michael Carter, S, New York Jets
Green Bay is a very live underdog against Dallas but needs Michael Carter‘s cover skills to bolster their shaky secondary against CeeDee Lamb. — Randle
Pick 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos
Suppose Tampa Bay beats Philadelphia at home? Suppose Baker Mayfield gets hurt? The veteran Russell Wilson is a massive upgrade from Kyle Trask for a potential playoff run. — Randle
Pick 3: Pittsburgh Steelers — Jessie Bates, S, Atlanta Falcons
Jessie Bates didn’t fix the Falcons defense all by himself when he signed with Atlanta last offseason, but he came close. He’s one of the best handful of safeties in the game, making his first Pro Bowl in 2023. — Kelley
Pick 4: Los Angeles Rams — Younghoe Koo, K, Atlanta Falcons
The Rams waived struggling kicker Lucas Havrisik after he missed two extra points in Week 17 and signed Brett Maher, who they had already waived nine games prior. Atlanta’s Younghoe Koo gives Los Angeles one of the most accurate kickers in the league. — Randle
Pick 5: Houston Texans — Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Devin Singletary had a very impressive debut year in Houston, overtaking 2022 darling Dameon Pierce for the lead role. He also averaged 4.2 yards per carry (2.8 after contact) compared to Breece Hall‘s 4.5 (3.4 after contact). And that’s before considering the receiving game, where Hall was maybe the best receiving back in the game, while Pierce and Singletary were … very not. — Kelley
Pick 6: Miami Dolphins — Josh Allen, EDGE, Jacksonville Jaguars
We already added Trey Hendrickson to the Dolphins’ edge defense, but there are two edges, so Josh Allen gets to make the playoffs. Remember, there can only be one good Josh Allen at a time, so maybe it will be this one’s turn to thrive. — Kelley
Pick 7: Philadelphia Eagles — Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Similar to Jacobs, I suspect Keenan Allen would have been playing down the stretch if the Chargers had had a playoff berth on the line. Given the Eagles’ injuries concerns with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, the All-Pro Allen provides unmatched consistency. — Randle
Pick 8: Cleveland Browns — Rashawn Slater, T, Los Angeles Chargers
Kolton Miller already joined our Browns squad, and sure, he and Rashawn Slater are both left tackles, but I’m just going for sheer skill here, and we’ll let Kevin Stefanski solve a good problem to have. — Kelley
Pick 9: Kansas City Chiefs — Samson Ebukam, EDGE, Indianapolis Colts
Three receivers are probably enough. The Chiefs now roll into the playoffs with, in some order, Ja’Marr Chase, DJ Moore, DeAndre Hopkins and Rashee Rice, and they can let the rest of their existing roster have a nice vacation. The team doesn’t have massive needs otherwise, but let’s give them an impressive edge defender in Samson Ebukam to round things out. — Kelley
Pick 10: Buffalo Bills — Budda Baker, S, Arizona Cardinals
Like the Dolphins, the Bills have been so banged up along the defense. Budda Baker is one of the best tacklers in the game still, and the Bills have a need there, even if they still have good safeties overall. — Kelley
Pick 11: Detroit Lions — Jabrill Peppers, S, New England Patriots
Jabrill Peppers is an explosive safety with elite speed who can also produce on special teams if WR/PR Kalif Raymond cannot play against the Rams. — Randle
Pick 12: Dallas Cowboys — Marcedes Lewis, TE, Chicago Bears
This brilliant tweet by our own EIC Daniel Kelley explains everything. Run blocking and leadership. — Randle
Pick 13: San Francisco 49ers — Demario Davis, LB, New Orleans Saints
New Orleans sends Demario Davis to San Francisco, giving the 49ers their final piece for a Super Bowl championship. — Randle
Pick 14: Baltimore Ravens — Xavier McKinney, S, New York Giants
In an ideal world, I’d probably have given the Ravens another star receiver (Michael Pittman? Garrett Wilson?). But Lamar Jackson has done more than enough with the receivers he’s had in place and never really seems that interested in having a single dominant target, so why not bolster a defense that has been battling injuries down the stretch? — Kelley
