Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Once again, the NBA has presented us with a behemoth of a slate, with 13 total scheduled games on Wednesday, 12 of which fall on the NBA DFS slate due to the postponement of the Memphis/Chicago game.
With so many games on the slate, it’s important to narrow down which games are truly the best to target, and which are appropriate to write off. This will be apparent in the game-by-game breakdown, but Vegas totals are also included to help make those important decisions.
Vegas data is provided by DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of writing and subject to shift as tip-off approaches.
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Indiana Pacers @ Charlotte Hornets
CHA -1.5, total: 218.5
With Domantas Sabonis’ status up in the air, we have the potential to see a redistribution of usage for Indiana. In his absence, both Malcolm Brogdon (+6.9%) and Myles Turner (+5.9%) see massive bumps in usage rate, while Brogdon averages over half of a fantasy point per minute more. In this scenario, both would be rock-solid plays in all formats. If Sabonis is in, all three of the aforementioned players are still viable, but would not be players to necessarily jam into your lineups.
Jeremy Lamb would also likely see a boost, as he’s posted a usage rate over 20% since his return from injury and saw a season-high 32 minutes last game, setting him up for a successful evening against his former team for only $5,100 and would be a viable value regardless of the status of Sabonis. JaKarr Sampson, Justin Holiday and Aaron Holiday would all likely see boosts as well, but none of the three is necessary on a loaded slate.
The Pacers are still not a defense I try to attack, even without Sabonis, as they run a slower, methodical pace and rate out well defensively. That said, Gordon Hayward ($7,500) is still too cheap. He’s averaged 32.3 points, seven rebounds and three assists per game over his last three games and should be relied upon heavily if the Hornets want to win, which is what Vegas is currently predicting.
Outside of Hayward, however, the prices on the Hornets players are rather restricting and don’t offer much ceiling potential in terms of point-per-dollar, making them easy fades.
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
CLE -3 total: 214
As stated in the introduction, there are going to be games on a 12-game slate that simply garner far less attention. This is likely to be one of them and for good reason.
With Blake Griffin ruled out for the Pistons, we should see more Derrick Rose (31.0% usage rate with Griffin out), Jerami Grant and Josh Jackson (23.5% usage rate with Griffin out). Grant is viable in all formats, but against a slow-paced, defensive-minded Cavs. team, he’s better left for GPPs. The other two are best reserved for MME pools only, as there are simply better plays on the slate.
The “better plays on the slate elsewhere” mindset rings true with the Cleveland side of this game as well. There’s some merit to Andre Drummond at $8,400 given the matchup, but the presence of Jarrett Allen now makes him a harder play to trust in cash and single-entry contests, reserving him as an elite tournament option. Outside of Drummond, Collin Sexton is the only other option that makes some sense here, as he’s flirted with a 30% usage rate this season, especially considering the fact that the Pistons rank bottom-four in the league against dimers (27th), primary ball handlers (29th), and crafty finishers (29th) per aDvP.
Sacramento Kings @ Orlando Magic
ORL -1.5, total: 222
Statistically, there isn’t a worse defense in the NBA than the Sacramento Kings, ranking 30th in defensive rating (118.7). It also helps that they’re running at a top-10 pace (101.40), creating an ideal fantasy environment for the Magic.
This makes Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier all enticing options, with Gordon being the top option at $7,700 on DraftKings. His 30.1% assist rate over the last two weeks leads the Magic and he’s added a 14.4% rebounding rate and 22.7% usage rate, giving him well-rounded upside in a smash matchup. Both Vucevic (1.37 FPPM) and Fournier (1.18 FPPM) are viable at their prices as well and should come in at relatively low ownership given the slate size.
The Kings, while running at a respectable pace, draw a tougher matchup against the Magic, making them harder to target on a full slate. De'Aaron Fox ($8,700), Richaun Holmes ($6,600) and Buddy Hield ($6,300) all feel a touch too expensive here, while Marvin Bagley ($5,700) stands out as a better point-per-dollar option. While finally solidifying himself over the 30-minute threshold, he’s averaged 15.3 points and 9.7 rebounds in just over 32 minutes per game over his last three games. If going with a Kings player, he’s my pick.
Brooklyn Nets @ Atlanta Hawks
BKN -7, total: 235.5
If there’s a game environment to get exposure to on Wednesday’s slate, this is the one, as it carries a slate-high 235.5 total. Sure, the Hawks are on the second leg of a back-to-back, but given how poorly Brooklyn’s defense has played since the Harden trade, it’ll be hard for them not to succeed.
Trae Young needs no analysis and Kyrie Irving is an exploitable individual matchup, as Young has averaged 25.5 points, nine assists and 5.5 boards in his last two head-to-heads against Irving. At $9,200, he feels like a massive misprice. Clint Capela and John Collins should be the focal point of this offense on Wednesday, as the Nets are surrendering more points per game in the paint than any team in the league since the trade. Both Capela and Collins have been playing great basketball as of late, making them phenomenal targets at their prices.
De'Andre Hunter continues to impress this season, flirting with a 50/40/90 slash line as one of the more underrated players in the NBA. At $6,500, he has room for a ceiling game, but he’s not a priority play on a full slate.
The Nets superstars remain underpriced at first glance, but the distribution of usage and responsibility has been frustrating enough from a fantasy perspective that the prices become justified. Of the three, I’m still most inclined to play Irving at $8,800, as last game was his first under 48 fantasy points since the trade and it was in a game where he shot only 6-17 from the field in 39.5 minutes. Assuming his efficiency bounces back, he’s far too cheap for the ceiling he provides.
Kevin Durant would be my next priority for the Nets, as he leads the team with a 31.8% usage rate and 1.45 FPPM clip over the last two weeks, while also holding a higher assist rate (23.3%) than Irving. James Harden is a fine buy-low play, but that’s a risk that I’m OK passing on given the size of the slate.
Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat
DEN -5, total: 220.5
Jimmy Butler remains out for the Heat while both Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic are questionable. If Herro is able to return, however, it’d be likely that he’d be facing some sort of minutes restriction given the fact that he’s missed the last six games. If both he and Dragic sit, Kendrick Nunn would shoot up as one of the best point-per-dollar plays on the slate at $5,700 against a sieve of a defense. This would also make Bam Adebayo a stronger play than he already is at $8,600, as he holds a 31.9% usage rate and posts 1.49 DK points per minute with these three out this season.
Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson would also see more run and usage. While Vincent has struggled as a per-minute producer (0.61 DKP/min with these three off the court), getting a 24.3% usage rate and near-minimum price is something that’s hard to come by.
You never have to twist my arm to play Nikola Jokic, as he remains top-three in the NBA in touches per game, but the matchup here isn’t one to go out of your way to attack. He’s a great tournament option, but on a full 12-game slate, there are other avenues that I prefer to take when spending up. If pressing for Denver exposure, I don’t hate the idea of getting to Jamal Murray at $7,100. Outside of his last game where he was ejected in the second half, he had posted at least 40 DK points in four of the previous five games. He’s a player to target when they’re hot, making him a great tournament option at $7,100 and someone worth stacking with Jokic if you choose to go that route.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Philadelphia 76ers
LAL -2, total: 221.5
The Lakers have been a difficult team to target in DFS because they’ve been blowing so many teams out this season, but Wednesday should finally present an opportunity to grab LeBron James and Anthony Davis at dirt-cheap prices in a competitive matchup. James in particular has been playing his best basketball of the season of late. He’s averaged 31.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 6 assists over his last two games and while the Sixers are one of the best defensive units in the league, this is LeBron James. He’s an elite play at this price, as is Davis for $9,000 flat.
This could also be a spot to attack Montrezl Harrell and Dennis Schroder, as they’re both under $6,000 and should be on the court for 28-plus minutes in a competitive matchup.
As inclined as I am to roster the Lakers, I’m much less inclined to do so with the Sixers. Joel Embiid’s $9,400 price tag is enticing and worthwhile in tournaments, but this is a matchup with the best defensive unit in basketball. While the ceiling is certainly there, there are better point-per-dollar plays elsewhere.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors
MIL -6, total: 223.5
Any time Giannis Antetokounmpo is under $11,000, he should pique interest, as the only thing holding him back is the minutes. With a 6-point spread, there’s potential that this could be a close game. This makes Antetokounmpo a worthwhile tournament option, but not necessarily a priority spend.
Khris Middleton is a great pivot off of Antetokounmpo when looking to save some money, as he’s slashing over 50/40/90 on the season and has topped 40 DK points in seven of his last nine games.
For the Raptors, Pascal Siakam is once again questionable, which should continue to open up minutes for Norman Powell, Stanley Johnson and Chris Boucher. While Boucher’s production continues to be erratic, he remains one of the best per-minute producers on the slate, making him a nightly tournament option. Over the last week with Siakam out, however, it’s been OG Anunoby, who’s seen the lion’s share of the voided usage, seeing a 2.4% bump. He should see a ton of court time having to combat Middleton and Giannis on the defensive end, giving him a bump in peripheral upside.
Both Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet are fine at their prices without Siakam, but this isn’t a matchup I prefer to attack, leading me to look elsewhere in this price range.
Washington Wizards @ New Orleans Pelicans
NOP -7.5, total: 227.5
With the Wizards on the second leg of a back-to-back, it’s looking likely that Russell Westbrook sits. The default option is to go to Bradley Beal, and it’s impossible to argue with that, as he holds the highest usage rate in the entire NBA when Westbrook is off the floor. He makes for one of the best overall plays on the slate.
Outside of Beal, Raul Neto should see a ton of run if Westbrook is out, and with Ish Smith likely to miss due to COVID-19 protocols, he’d be the only true point guard left, making him an elite value at $4,300. This would also give a bump to Jerome Robinson and Garrison Mathews, both of which are viable once again. If on the off chance, Westbrook plays, it’s hard to trust anyone on the team outside of Beal.
For the Pelicans, this is one of the best matchups they could ask for from a fantasy perspective. While both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson have been frustratingly inconsistent this season, they both produce over 1.1 FPPM and have usage rates over 28%, making them elite plays at their upper-mid-tier prices. Of all the Pelicans, however, Steven Adams is catching my eye the most. Odd, I know, but he’s only $5,000 on FanDuel against a team that ranks 23rd against rebounders (per aDvP) and leads the Pelicans in rebounding rate (16.5%) while flirting with a fantasy point per minute (0.90). This sets up for a ceiling game for the big man, making him an elite option if you’re looking to spend down at center and get different.
Boston Celtics @ San Antonio Spurs
BOS -3.5, total: 225
For the first time this season, we could see the Celtics roll out their fully healthy starting five with Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum in place. While this should help them cover the spread from a betting perspective, it does muddy the waters in terms of DFS a bit. Walker at $6,300 is appealing strictly from a price standpoint, assuming he can get up to the 30-minute mark.
Tatum and Jaylen Brown are both fairly priced, with Tatum carrying the higher ceiling for $400 more. Both are fine options against a Spurs team that runs at a faster pace than we’re used to, but neither are priority spends.
On the other side of this game, DeMar DeRozan’s price is simply disrespectful. His 1.17 FPPM clip leads the Spurs and his 24% (or higher) usage rate as well as 29.6% rebounding rate are more than enough to give you ceiling potential at this price, especially considering the fact that he’s averaging 5.6x this price tag in terms of fantasy points per game. The same can be said about Dejounte Murray, who feels too cheap at $6,600, especially with Derrick White remaining out in a tight spread. As long as he sees 30 minutes, he should be able to smash this price as he’s coming off of yet another triple-double last game.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -6.5, total: 220.5
This is another game that should generate very little interest in terms of DFS, as both of these teams run a slow pace while Phoenix has been one of the better defensive teams in the NBA this season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains viable, but at $8,500 against a great defense, I’d rather target both of the Celtics stars and a handful of aforementioned players before I would get to SGA. On top of this, with Al Horford potentially back, he could see a knock in rebounding rate. This would also eliminate Isaiah Roby from value consideration.
My interest in this game comes from the Phoenix side of the game with Devin Booker ruled out again. Without Booker this season, we see Deandre Ayton (+3.6% usage), Chris Paul (+2.4% usage, +7.7% assist rate), and Cam Johnson (+3.6% usage, +1.7% assist rate) operate as the primary beneficiaries. All three are viable, with Paul and Johnson being my top two.
Mikal Bridges is also a viable pivot, as he sees a 4.3% jump in assist rate and should continue to log heavy minutes on the wing.
Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz
UTA -4, total: 225.5
Utah is coming off a game Tuesday night, but find themselves favored by four against a competitive Dallas team. The back-to-back can cause some concern, but both Rudy Gobert ($7,200) and Mike Conley ($6,100) feel too cheap on DraftKings. Gobert is coming off a monster 50-fantasy-point performance and even if his minutes are scaled back a bit, he has a ton of potential to smash his price tag against one of the worst teams at defending within nine feet of the rim.
Donovan Mitchell is always a viable option, but much like Gilgeous-Alexander, there are simply other avenues I would rather pursue in his price range. If we see any of the guard minutes scaled back on the back-to-back, that could mean more minutes for a $5,900 Jordan Clarkson, who’s upside puts him squarely in play in tournaments.
On the Dallas side, Luka Doncic remains under $11,000 despite ranking top-three in the NBA in usage rate while holding a 49.8% assist rate, 15% rebounding rate and 1.62 FPPM clip. Regardless of the opponent, he’s an elite play.
Kristaps Porzingis remains viable as well, especially with Maxi Kleber still out. His 27% usage rate is a number that’s hard to come by elsewhere in his price range, giving him a heap of upside. The rest of the Mavs. are too hard to project now with Josh Richardson and Dorian Finney-Smith both listed as questionable, making it wise to find your value elsewhere and simply target the studs here.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -8, total: 227.5
Two days after this exact same matchup produced a 238-point blowout, Vegas has it marked at a 227.5 over/under, creating another fantasy-friendly environment.
Even with the blowout, we still saw almost 34 minutes from Stephen Curry, who posted 36 raw points, showcasing his upside in such a matchup. His $9,300 price is still far too cheap, making him a priority play for me on the 12-game slate.
Andrew Wiggins has turned a corner as of late, averaging 18 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3 blocks over his last two games. If the revenge narrative continues to serve as motivation, he should be in a good spot to repeat his 10-19 shooting performance from their last matchup, making him a fine mid-tier option. There’s also still room for Kelly Oubre and Draymond Green to pop at their respective prices, they just carry more volatility than the aforementioned two. Because of the matchup, however, they are both extremely viable.
On the other side of this game, D'Angelo Russell remains questionable. His status will have a profound impact on this game, as the spread figures to tighten should he be ruled in. If that’s the case, he makes for an elite play given his 30% usage rate without Karl-Anthony Towns. If he’s ruled out, Malik Beasley should continue to lead this offense and remains far too cheap on FanDuel, where you’re forced to roster two small forwards.
Anthony Edwards should also generate some interest, especially at $4,500 on DraftKings, after seeing 27 minutes last game. His efficiency has yet to come around, but he’s attempting over 10 shots per game at his price, making him a fine, but volatile, value option.
