Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
February kicks off with a nice 10-game slate in the NBA. There are a ton of really strong options tonight, while it appears we’ll have enough value to fit stars like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard into your lineups. Let’s break down every game and see what we like and dislike.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Atlanta Hawks
LAL -6.5, total: 218.5
Yes, both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are once again listed as questionable for tonight’s game. And yes, I once again expect both to play for the Lakers tonight. Davis was under $9,000 on DraftKings prior to his great game against Boston over the weekend but it is tough to dismiss him in any game that could be close for the Lakers. However, if choosing between the two stars, I’m leaning towards LeBron. Atlanta’s defense hasn’t been nearly as bad this season and the addition of Clint Capela has certainly helped, as the Hawks are coughing up the second-fewest points per possession (0.81) and fourth-lowest field goal percentage (40.8%) to the post. Meanwhile, they are allowing 7.7 points per game off isolation on the year, the third-most in the league, as well as the fourth-most points per possession off the play type (1.04). LeBron, meanwhile, is averaging 3.4 isolation points per game this year, good for the 12th-most in basketball, while his 16.8 percent isolation frequency rate ranks 10th in the league. The Hawks also rank 28th against point forwards, 28th against scorers and 24th against primary ball handlers on the season, making this a very strong spot for James tonight.
I’d honestly like to discuss other members of this Lakers team for fantasy, but it is difficult to right now. After getting off to a strong start, Dennis Schroder has slowed down as of late. And over the last two weeks, his usage rate is under 20 percent while averaging just 0.72 fantasy points per minute. When the season started, Schroder was initiating the offense a lot more, while LeBron was taking a bit of a backseat. During the first week and change of the season, Schroder posted a 25 percent usage rate and 16 percent assist rate while averaging just five fewer touches per game than LeBron during the month of December. However, over the last 10 games, James is averaging a healthy 90.8 touches per game, good for the fifth-most in the league.
For the Hawks, Trae Young continues to get it done, scoring at least 50 fantasy points in each of his last seven games. The matchup against the Lakers is one of the worst in basketball but because DraftKings has been hesitant to really price Young up, I still believe he is worth considering here. Clint Capela’s price has come down, though the production has remained very strong. Capela has recorded double-digit rebounds in every single game this season while his 23.6 rebounding chances per game lead the NBA. Again, this is a tough matchup, but the Hawks are going to have to rely on Capela to counter the likes of Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell in the frontcourt. Finally, with De'Andre Hunter out with a knee injury, both Cam Reddish and Kevin Huerter get bumps, especially Reddish, who sees a healthy 4.2 percent usage boost with Hunter off the floor this season. He is also averaging just under a fantasy point per minute while posting a solid 20 percent rebounding rate in the split. Reddish should play 32-35 minutes in this game and is under $5,000 on DraftKings.
Charlotte Hornets @ Miami Heat
MIA -6.5, total: 218
Jimmy Butler finally returned over the weekend after a near three-week absence and surely didn’t disappoint. Butler scored 30 points to go along with seven rebounds and eight assists and while he shot just 8 of 19 from the field, he made up for it by converting 14 of 16 free throw attempts. After ramping up his conditioning prior to Saturday’s game against the Kings, Butler logged 34 minutes, a terrific sign. However, he saw a massive price jump, going from $7,300 to $8,400 on DraftKings. But if Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro are sidelined for Miami, it is a price tag I am willing to pay. We have only seen Butler play 10.4 minutes with both players off the floor this season, but his usage rate in the split is over 36 percent. It likely won’t be that high, but you obviously like the potential for Butler, who touched the ball 76 times last game, 13 more than his season average. If both Herro and Dragic are ruled out, Butler makes for a very fine play. The same can be said for Bam Adebayo, though as much as I love Bam, I do think he is a tad bit overpriced. Of course, there is immense upside, especially in a matchup against a Charlotte defense that is surrendering 17.3 rebounds per game to opposing centers this season, easily the most in basketball.
Meanwhile, Kendrick Nunn would have benefited from the absence of Dragic on Saturday, but he arrived late to the game and didn’t see the floor. Herro played but is now questionable after someone he lives with tested positive for COVID-19. If he sits, Nunn will likely return to the starting lineup and would be a solid mid-range option. With both Dragic and Herro off the floor this season, Nunn is sporting a 26.7 percent usage rate. Finally, this is a really intriguing GPP spot for Duncan Robinson. I’ll admit that I don’t like his price tag and it is one I am only willing to pay if Herro is out. However, Robinson could really take advantage of Charlotte’s zone heavy defense, as 39.8 percent of the points surrendered by the Hornets this season have come from three, the fourth-highest mark in the league. Meanwhile, Robinson is averaging 2.8 triples made per game off catch-and-shoot opportunities (second-most), while shooting over 41 percent from three off the play type.
After going seven straight games with less than 30 minutes, LaMelo Ball has now logged at least 30 minutes in back-to-back contests. That has resulted in 35.5 and 52.5 fantasy points and he could be in line for 30-plus minutes here, especially if Terry Rozier is ruled out with an ankle injury. Rozier suffered the injury in the first half of their last game and Ball started the second half, which means he could very well start this game if Rozier is ruled out. With Rozier off the floor this season, Ball is sporting a solid 24 percent usage rate and 20 percent assist rate while averaging 1.27 fantasy points per minute. Malik Monk would also see an uptick in minutes, as he’s coming off a season-high 23 minutes. We also have to decide what we’re doing with Cody Zeller now that he is $5,300 on DraftKings. He was an easy play during the last few slates but now there are other viable options around him, while the center position is usually loaded on larger slates anyway.
New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls
CHI -4, total: 218
This game features a New York team that ranks dead last in pace and a Chicago team that ranks second in pace. Obviously, any game is a pace-up spot for the Knicks, but this is an extreme one. Of course, this team starts with Julius Randle, who is coming off a very good game against the Clippers. The production and volume have dropped a bit as of late, but this is still a player who ranks 12th in the NBA in touches per game (83.9) and 11th in rebounding chances per game (17.7) while sporting a 27.5 percent usage rate. Randle is also averaging 4.5 post-up points per game, the fifth-most in basketball, while the Bulls are coughing up the seventh-most post-up points per game (5.9). With Chicago also ranking bottom-five against four of Randle’s archetypes, he has a 60-point ceiling in this huge pace-up spot. We also need to keep our eye on rookie Immanuel Quickley, who is making a case to enter the starting lineup. He has played at least 23 minutes in each of his last four games and over his last 10 outings, Quickley is averaging 17 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game while shooting just over 41 percent from three-point land. And over the last week of play, the rookie is sporting an insane 36.4 percent usage rate while averaging 1.31 fantasy points per minute. In a matchup against a terrible Bulls defense that is surrendering the third-most points per game to opposing point guards (26.4), Quickley warrants GPP consideration. And if he somehow enters the starting lineup, look out. Finally, I have no issue with RJ Barrett at $6,700 on DraftKings here. He’s scored over 20 real points in each of his last two games, though the peripherals haven’t really been there. Still, Barrett 36.6 minutes per game on the season, good for the fifth-most in the NBA.
The Bulls definitely aren’t exciting, on the other hand. Zach LaVine normally has a good combination of floor and ceiling but this is a tough matchup, facing a Knicks team that ranks dead last in pace, while also ranking as a top-five defensive unit. I really liked Lauri Markkanen last game and he delivered but between the bump in price tag and underwhelming matchup, I’m not really on him here. Coby White is very affordable at $6,600 on DraftKings but he’s been a bit up-and-down this season while the ceiling games haven’t been there so far in his sophomore season.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Cleveland Cavaliers
CLE -4.5, total: 218.5
This is a repeat matchup from Sunday night so just keep an eye on the statuses of some of these players. I don’t envision anyone resting, but it is worth noting that Collin Sexton left the game with an ankle injury, though he did return and logged 32 minutes. I liked him a lot against Minnesota, though the production was lacking, as he scored 16 points on 16 shots while adding just two assists and two rebounds. Sexton is averaging right around five points per game in transition on the season, a top-10 number in the NBA, while Minnesota is coughing up 23.0 points per game in transition, the second-most in the league. If Sexton were to miss this game, Darius Garland would become a very solid option, as his usage rate jumps up to 27.2 percent with Sexton off the floor this season while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute. Meanwhile, Andre Drummond eclipsed 30 minutes in a game on Sunday night for the first time since Jarrett Allen made his Cavaliers debut. He dominated the Wolves, scoring 25 points and adding 22 rebounds and since Allen joined the team, Drummond is still sporting a 32 percent usage rate and absurd 50 percent rebounding rate. He still has as much upside as nearly any center on the slate and as long as he’s under the $9,000 price range, Drummond is worth a look in tournaments, especially in a matchup that ranks dead last in putback points per game, allowing around eight per contest.
For Minnesota, keep an eye on D'Angelo Russell, who could possibly sit on the second end of a back-to-back after recently returning from injury. However, as long as he’s active, you have to at least consider him after his price tag has plummeted to just $7,000 on DraftKings. He logged 31 minutes on Sunday night and while the production wasn’t incredible, this is still a player sporting a 30.6 percent usage rate with Karl-Anthony Towns off the floor this season. Meanwhile, Anthony Edwards has been in the starting lineup over the last few games and is starting to find his groove. The shots are finally starting to fall and he’s been a fairly high-usage player all season long. His price is up to $5,600, which isn’t egregious but honestly does scare me a bit because his peripherals are lacking.
Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans
NO -3.5, total: 233
This game is very intriguing, especially on the New Orleans side.
For starters, Steven Adams is listed as questionable with a calf injury that he sustained in Saturday’s game. I already have interest in Zion Williamson in this spot but if Adams sits, could Zion’s ceiling actually be higher? It is entirely possible because Adams has hurt Williamson’s rebounding ceiling, as Adams is averaging 17.2 rebounding chances per game. Because Zion has been scoring the ball at such an efficient clip this season, any uptick in rebounding could give him slate-breaking potential, especially against an awful Kings defense. I am also interested to see if the Pelicans would use Zion in the pick and roll more if Adams was inactive. For the season, Adams has a 25.4 percent frequency rate as the roll man while Zion’s is all the way down to a head-scratching 5.5 percent. You can make the case that Williamson is the most dangerous roll man in basketball, yet the Pelicans have had zero interest in using him in that role. Instead, Zion is averaging a league-leading 4.7 points per game off cuts as well as 3.2 points per game off putbacks, the seventh-most in the league. Williamson should be able to win in this matchup, facing a Kings defense that is coughing up a 67.1 percent field goal percentage at the rim, the fourth-worst mark in basketball. I have a lot of interest in Zion tonight and that interest only enhances if the Pelicans are without Adams.
Brandon Ingram also makes plenty of sense here. The Kings are simply one of, if not the worst defense in basketball right now. They especially struggle to defend scoring wings, and currently rank 30th in the league against scorers, according to our advanced DVP tool. Sacramento is also allowing 8.8 points per game off isolation, the second-most in basketball, while Ingram is sporting a near 15 percent frequency rate off the play type this season. I also believe that Lonzo Ball is still a bit too cheap at $5,500 on DraftKings, as he’s been very strong in three of his last four games. Finally, if Adams is ruled out, you could give Jaxson Hayes a look if he enters the starting lineup. He is sporting a 29 percent rebounding rate in just over 209 minutes with Adams off the floor this season.
Is it odd that the first player from the Kings that is on my radar is Hassan Whiteside? The veteran center has played 20 minutes in consecutive games, which may not sound like a lot but when you consider how efficient of a player Whiteside has been for fantasy, it matters. Whiteside is averaging a strong 1.20 fantasy points per minute this season to go along with a 23.3 percent usage rate and 33 percent rebounding rate. And at just $3,600 on DraftKings, Whiteside only needs to play 20 minutes to be worthy of your consideration as a value play. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are allowing the third-highest field goal percentage in basketball at the rim (67.6%), and that is with Adams in the lineup. Meanwhile, rookie Tyrese Haliburton makes some sense at just $5,200. While he is still coming off the bench for the Kings, Haliburton has logged at least 30 minutes in four straight games, as he continues to close a lot of games. I’d rank him as the second-best option from this team while De'Aaron Fox is still a bit too expensive for me at $8,300. I’ll likely limit my exposure to him to game stacks until his price tag drops or he finds himself in an incredible matchup.
Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
HOU -4.5, total: 222.5
I loved Christian Wood on Saturday’s slate, and he finished one rebound shy of a strong double-double in just 27 minutes. The Pelicans made a run and got a lead, limiting minutes for Wood and most of the Houston starters, but I am going right back to him in this spot. Oklahoma City has been a bad defense at defending roll men out of the pick and roll, coughing up the fifth-most points per game to the play type (8.6) while also allowing the seventh-worst field goal percentage (54.1%). Wood, meanwhile, is averaging a league-leading 7.1 points per game out of the pick and roll while averaging 1.22 points per possession out of the play type. Outside of Wood, I have no issue looking to John Wall in tournaments, as his minutes should be in at least the 30-32 range, as long as this game stays close. And if Wall plays that many minutes, he is too cheap at $6,900, as he’s sporting a 34 percent usage rate over his last 80 minutes of floor time. I feel much better playing Wall at his price tag than going up to Victor Oladipo at $8,000.
For the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is always a safe option at $8,100, though it is worth noting that the Rockets have been a top-five defensive unit since the James Harden trade. Still, SGA is averaging 7.2 minutes of possession per game over the course of the season, good for the seventh-highest mark in basketball while his 5.60 average seconds per touch rank sixth-best in the league. Meanwhile, you can go to Luguentz Dort at $4,200, who you’ll need to hit his shots, but he should play 33-35 minutes and is pretty cheap. The better play, however, is to just go back to Theo Maledon, who has started each of the last three games with George Hill sidelined. He’s played 30 and 33 minutes over the past two games and is coming off a 36.7 fantasy point outing. Maledon is a very strong value play this evening.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -10, total: 235
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the top player to spend up for on this slate if you’re asking me. And considering you are reading my article, I assume that you are asking me. Anyway, Giannis is rolling right now, averaging 61 fantasy points over his last five games while absolutely dominating the glass during that span, averaging just under 15 rebounds per game. This is obviously an awesome matchup for Giannis to keep it going and while the Bucks are 10-point favorites here, this is a team that has been struggling to put weaker teams away this season, especially as of late. Because he is averaging 1.60 fantasy points per minute on the year, Giannis could still go for 50-60 points in 32 or 33 minutes. But if Portland keeps this game close and Giannis plays 38 or 39 minutes again, I imagine he’ll finish as the highest-scoring player on the slate. Meanwhile, I have no problem getting to either Khris Middleton or Jrue Holiday in this spot, though I do prefer Middleton.
Damian Lillard continues to run the Portland offense and is perfectly in play here, especially against a fast-paced Milwaukee defense that hasn’t been as good on the defensive end this season. This game has a high total and pairing Lillard and Giannis makes some sense in a stack. Over his last five games, Lillard is averaging 86.8 touches per game while his 9.3 minutes of possession per game during that span rank second in all of basketball. The rest of the Blazers aren’t as interesting, however. Robert Covington returned from his concussion the other night and played 34 minutes and while his $5,000 price tag isn’t awful, the ceiling is limited. He wouldn’t be the worst option as the last player into your lineup, but it is tough to get too excited about him. Gary Trent, meanwhile, has now started three straight games, logging 37, 38 and 41 minutes during that span. He definitely has some upside here, as 40.4 percent of the points allowed by the Bucks this season have come from three, the third-highest rate in the league. Trent, meanwhile, has attempted a whopping 32 triples over his last three games.
Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks
DAL -3, total: 217.5
This is a fairly easy game to break down.
Devin Booker is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. If he returns to the lineup, I really don’t have interest in anyone from the Suns at their elevated price tags. However, if he is ruled out again, Chris Paul remains a very strong play. Over the last four games with Booker sidelined, Paul is averaging a healthy 94.3 touches per game while also averaging 8.9 minutes of possession per game, both of which are top-five numbers during that span. And with Booker off the floor this season, CP3’s usage rate jumps to a strong 27 percent mark. $8,000 for Deandre Ayton, meanwhile, is a little expensive, but there is definitely upside against a Dallas defense that struggles to defend the rim. You can also comfortably get to Cam Johnson or Mikal Bridges at their price tags if Booker is ruled out but neither are core plays for me tonight.
For Dallas, I once again only am looking to Luka Doncic or Kristaps Porzingis. Doncic has been under 50 fantasy points in each of his last three games and while he is always a viable option, he isn’t a priority for me on this slate, especially against a very good Suns defense. As for Porzingis, I like his price tag on both DraftKings and FanDuel, as he is still sporting a healthy 27.2 percent usage rate and 26 percent rebounding rate over the course of the season.
Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs
SAS -3.5, total: 220.5
The Grizzlies will remain without Jonas Valanciunas and Grayson Allen for this game, opening some things up for the rest of this team. We continue to see Xavier Tillman start at center, who remains a viable option, despite his price bump. He is now $4,800 on DraftKings but is also power-forward eligible there, which is very helpful. With JoVal off the floor this season, Tillman is sporting a 21 percent rebounding rate while averaging just over a fantasy point per minute. And in the same split, Ja Morant’s usage rate is just over 30 percent while averaging 1.26 fantasy points per minute. I really like his $7,600 price tag over on DK, especially against a Spurs defense that ranks 25th against dimers, 24th against primary ball handlers and 29th against crafty finishers this season. Meanwhile, Morant is averaging 20.7 drives per game on the year, good for the third-most in the NBA. Finally, DeAnthony Melton might be Memphis’ new sixth man. He came off the bench over the weekend and played 32 minutes and he could be worth a look as a value play with Grayson Allen once again out of the lineup.
I’m not crazy about the Spurs on this slate. Derrick White returned to the lineup on Saturday and played 22 minutes, scoring 18 points. His return will eventually hurt someone like Dejounte Murray, though he’s still very affordable on DraftKings and provides so many peripherals that he isn’t necessarily a bad play, just not as exciting as he once was. DeMar DeRozan is coming off an awful game, scoring just over seven fantasy points. Yikes. Hopefully, it was just because of the back-to-back but DeRozan hasn’t been quite as aggressive on the offensive end as of late, attempting less than 10 shots in five of his last 10 games.
Detroit Pistons @ Denver Nuggets
DEN -8.5, total: 218
The final game of the slate is another rather easy one for me.
On the Denver side, I will play Nikola Jokic on almost every single slate right now, including this one. He still paces the league in touches per game (102.4) while averaging nearly a triple-double. Jokic has also recorded a double-double in every single game this season and now gets to face a Pistons defense that is allowing the third-most points per possession off handoffs this season (1.08), as well as the highest field goal percentage off the play type (51.7%). That bodes well for Jokic, but it could also help Jamal Murray, who has been mostly disappointing for fantasy this season but does average 3.3 points per game off handoffs on the year, good for the second-most in basketball. Finally, Gary Harris left Sunday’s game with a thigh injury and didn’t return. If he is ruled out and PJ Dozier remains sidelined, Monte Morris would become a very solid value option at $3,800 on DraftKings.
For the Pistons, it is really just Jerami Grant or bust. He’s been bad over his last few games but I like his potential against a weak Denver defense. Grant also might have some more incentive to perform here, facing his former team. This is the front end of a back-to-back for Detroit, which means Derrick Rose could sit out. If that’s the case, I’d be fine with Delon Wright as a mid-range play.
