Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are five NHL games Monday, and Tampa Bay is the largest favorite on the docket with Montreal, Boston, Calgary and Pittsburgh trailing incrementally in that order. The Pittsburgh-New York and Vancouver-Montreal clashes have the highest over/under totals, whereas the Boston-Washington bout has the lowest. Here’s a quick-hit primer to aid in assembling your DFS and fantasy lineups.
Pittsburgh Penguins (-109) at New York Rangers
The Penguins topped the Rangers 5-4 in overtime on Saturday and drove possession with a 58.7 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five. Additionally, Pittsburgh took it to New York in the third period with six high-danger scoring chances. The Blueshirts did generate more high-danger chances over the course of the game (15 to 13), though. It wouldn’t be surprising to see another high-event, high-score game Monday, either. There have been 20 goals through the first three meetings between these two teams, after all.
The real news with the Penguins is their depleted blueline. Kris Letang (lower body) left Saturday’s game and is questionable for Monday. Pittsburgh is already without Marcus Pettersson (upper body), Brian Dumoulin (lower body), Michael Matheson (upper body) and Juuso Riikola (upper body). Add a second-worst .862 team save percentage, and the Penguins might have to continue scoring their way to victories. The Rangers tried to put their own blueline problem behind them by waiving Anthony DeAngelo, and the decision was probably made easier by the immediate impact K'Andre Miller has made. Double-check New York’s line combinations ahead of the game, as they’ve been shuffling them around regularly.
Boston Bruins (-148) at Washington Capitals
The Bruins have their big line back intact with David Pastrnak’s return Saturday. Pastrnak’s combined with linemates Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand for an impressive 5.83 goals and 15.1 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes while also driving possession with a 57.9 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five over the past three years. They’re a matchup nightmare. While the Bruins lost in overtime Saturday, Boston ran over Washington with 88 shot attempts to the Capitals 43. Boston also doubled up Washington in high-danger scoring chances 18 to nine.
Still undefeated in regulation, Washington sits atop the East Division with a 6-0-3 record. However, the Capitals will be in trouble if they’re caved in like they were Saturday. Rookie netminder Vitek Vanecek has settled in nicely of late with a 3-0-1 record, .929 save percentage and 2.69 GAA through his past four starts, and he’s a big reason Washington has been able to succeed. Nicklas Backstrom has been even more impressive during the noted stretch with two tallies, six helpers and three multi-point showings. He’s a fade candidate based on statistical correction alone. Boston has surrendered two goals or fewer in six of eight games this season and surrendered just 1.94 goals per hour at five-on-five for the campaign, after all.
Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning (-180)
These two teams played a heated contest Saturday. There were 12 power-play opportunities, and each club scored twice with the man advantage. It’s not the gameflow Nashville is looking for, either. The Predators own a league-worst 63.6 penalty-kill percentage, which follows a 29th-ranked 76.1 mark last year. Additionally, Nashville doesn’t have the offensive firepower to win a high-scoring game most nights. Tampa Bay ranks fifth in high-danger scoring chances per hour (12.56), whereas the Preds are 21st with 9.36. There’s also a notable gap in team save percentage. Tampa Bay ranks second with a .920 mark, and Nashville’s .896 team save percentage is 23rd in the league.
One potential against-the-grain line to target is Yanni Gourde, Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. The trio has scored a respectable 3.67 goals, generated 15.91 high-danger scoring chances and driven possession with a 57.7 Corsi For percentage this season. Expect the Brayden Point–Steven Stamkos–Ondrej Palat line to be the most popular. Additionally, Victor Hedman is off to a solid start and warrants attention as the power-play quarterback on the No. 1 unit. Hedman’s racked up two tallies, five helpers, four power-play points, 21 shots and 10 blocks through six games. Averaging 26:35 of ice time per night offers plenty of opportunities, too.
Vancouver Canucks at Montreal Canadiens (-167)
There could be plenty of offense in this one. Montreal took five of a possible six points from the Canucks during their recent three-game series in Vancouver, and there were 27 combined goals. Montreal winger Tyler Toffoli was especially effective with five tallies and two helpers through the three-game set, and the Habs will also have Josh Anderson back in the league – he left Saturday’s game against Calgary because of flu-like symptoms. Carey Price will receive the start, and he’s in a nice spot. He’s stopped 46 of 50 shots over his past two starts, and the Canadiens have surrendered the fifth-fewest high-danger scoring chances per hour while also sporting the fourth-best Corsi For percentage at five-on-five.
The Canucks are rolling, though. Vancouver got right during its three-game sweep of the Senators and outscored Ottawa 16-3 and then topped Winnipeg 4-1 on Saturday. However, even with just one goal allowed in each of the past four contests, Vancouver still ranks third last with 12.72 high-danger scoring chances against per 60 minutes. It’s definitely helped that netminder Thatcher Demko has found his game, though. After allowing 16 goals through his first three starts, he’s rebounded to stop 100 of 103 shots over his latest three outings – all wins. While it’s still early in the season, the winner of this game grabs second place in the North Division, as both clubs are currently tied at 12 points apiece.
Calgary Flames (-121) at Winnipeg Jets
The Flames snapped a three-game losing streak with a tidy 2-0 win over Montreal on Saturday, whereas the Jets lost 4-1 to Vancouver, as noted. Making matters worse for Winnipeg, they’re sporting a 2-3 record when their three wins over the Ottawa Senators are removed. This will be a telling four-game series for both clubs because Calgary is underachieving to the tune of a 3-3-1 record but showed a lot Saturday to return to the wins column.
Team defense has been a real issue for the Jets. Winnipeg has surrendered the fifth-most high-danger scoring chances and eighth-most goals per 60 minutes in the league, and Connor Hellebuyck owns an underwhelming .910 save percentage through six starts. Winnipeg is scoring its way to wins, though. Six skaters are at a point-per-game pace or better with the usual suspects leading the way: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Blake Wheeler and Nikolaj Ehlers. Calgary hasn’t been as consistent offensively. Johnny Gaudreau is definitely set for a bounce-back campaign, and Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan and Matthew Tkachuk are also playing well. There’s definitely another gear in Tkachuk’s game, though. He’s a candidate to flirt with point-per-game production, and he currently has just three tallies and two helpers through seven contests.
