NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The week in the NBA rolls along, with nine more games Wednesday evening. While there are still plenty of injuries to monitor for DFS, we are seeing a handful of players return to the lineup, which is obviously nice to see. Also, keep an eye on a few teams coming off the front end of a back-to-back.
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Wizards @ Magic preview
WAS -3, total: 222
Once again, we await the status of Bradley Beal, who remains questionable with his hip injury. He has missed the last five games with the ailment and during that span, Russell Westbrook has absolutely dominated, recording four triple-doubles, while averaging over 60 fantasy points per game. In that same stretch, no player in basketball is averaging more touches per game than Westbrook (104.6), while his 10.4 minutes of possession per game during that span also lead the league. With Beal off the floor this season, Westbrook is sporting a gaudy 37.6% usage rate to go along with a 30% rebounding rate and 29% assist rate. For the season, his 14.7 rebounding chances per game lead all guards, while only 2.5 of his rebounds per game are contested, which means the Wizards are just clearing the way for Westbrook to grab the boards. With the way he’s playing right now, feel free to continue rolling Westbrook out there regardless. But if Beal is once again out, you know what to do. If Beal is out again, Garrison Matthews would probably start again. He is coming off a solid game where he scored 17 real points. The problem, however, is that he did literally nothing else. Meanwhile, Rui Hachimura is also questionable with a shoulder injury that has kept him out the last two games. Davis Bertans played 24 minutes last game and scored 32.2 fantasy points and would be worth a look if Hachimura sits again.
The Magic are also banged up right now. Michael Carter-Williams is questionable with an illness, while Cole Anthony could finally return after missing so much time with a rib injury. Anthony hasn’t played since Feb. 11, so it is very possible he is limited if he is active. Otto Porter has also already been ruled out. RJ Hampton started last game and scored 30 fantasy points, but if MCW and/or Anthony are in the lineup, it definitely takes a bit away from Hampton. Wendell Carter is the top option from this team, however, having scored at least 40 fantasy points in each of his last three games. Since making his Magic debut, Carter is sporting a 21% usage rate and 33% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.29 fantasy points per minute. A matchup with a Washington team that leads the league in pace should bode well for Carter.
Timberwolves @ Pacers preview
IND -2, total: 230
After a 26-game absence, D'Angelo Russell made his return Monday night, scoring 25 points and 40.7 fantasy points in 24 minutes. He is listed as probable for this game and is somewhat interesting considering he posted a massive 38.5% usage rate in his first game back. Russell’s return didn’t slow down Karl-Anthony Towns, who has scored at least 50 fantasy points in each of his last seven games. This matchup doesn’t scream incredible for Towns, but the Pacers are actually coughing up the third-most points per possession to the post this season (1.04), as well as the third-highest field goal percentage off the play type (53.8%). Towns, meanwhile, is averaging 4.5 post-up points per game on the year, good for the sixth-most in basketball. Not to mention their frontcourt is very banged up at the moment. Finally, with Russell back in the lineup, I can’t stomach a $7,700 price tag for Anthony Edwards.
We’ll have to keep an eye on the Pacers injury report once again Wednesday. Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis both remained out of the lineup Tuesday and will be listed as questionable for the second end of a back-to-back. The Pacers were awful against the Bulls Tuesday and actually ran a 10-man rotation, while a handful of players saw late blowout run in the fourth quarter. If Brogdon and Sabonis remain sidelined, you can go back to T.J. McConnell and Caris LeVert in another great matchup. Minnesota ranks 28th against dimers this season and with both players off the floor this season, McConnell’s usage rate is over the 30% mark. Myles Turner, meanwhile, suffered an ankle injury on Tuesday and did not return. If he and Sabonis are out on Wednesday, Goga Bitadze could become a value play at center. But if Brogdon and/or Sabonis are active, they both should be worth a look in tournaments considering how bad Minnesota’s defense is. Just keep an eye on the news, of course.
Pelicans @ Nets preview
BKN -8.5, total: 231
Kevin Durant is finally expected to make his long-awaited return to the Nets lineup Wednesday night. He has missed the last 23 games with a hamstring injury, so some sort of minutes limit is likely, but hopefully we get some word on that prior to the game starting. James Harden, meanwhile, will remain sidelined, which means the offense will run through Durant and Kyrie Irving, who is averaging 53.4 fantasy points per game over his last five outings. Both players are hovering around a 32% usage rate with Harden off the floor this season, while both are also over 1.40 fantasy points per minute in the split. This is a great matchup, as the Pelicans rank 27th against superstars this season, according to our advanced DVP tool. New Orleans is also coughing up the fourth-highest field goal percentage (44.6%) and fourth-most points per possession (1.00) to opposing players off isolation this season. That definitely bodes well for Irving, who is averaging 5.2 isolation points per game on the year, good for the third-most in all of basketball. Kyrie remains a top-tier play, while Durant can still go for 45-50 fantasy points in 27 or 28 minutes. Meanwhile, the frontcourt now belongs to LaMarcus Aldridge and Blake Griffin, as DeAndre Jordan has been a DNP since the end of March. Aldridge played 29 minutes last game but should continue to play center with Durant back. Griffin’s minutes could come down, though they could just run a lineup of Irving-Harris-Durant-Griffin-Aldridge for many stints.
Speaking of returns, Zion Williamson returned from his thumb injury Tuesday night, scoring a game-high 34 points against the Hawks. Brandon Ingram remains sidelined but regardless of his status, Williamson is on my radar. Yes, this is the second end of a back-to-back, but Zion suffered a thumb injury, so I don’t see the Pelicans sitting him, especially after he played 35 minutes. Williamson is sporting a strong 33.2% usage rate with Ingram off the floor this season, while also posting a 22% rebounding rate and averaging 1.43 fantasy points per minute. Brooklyn, meanwhile, has no one capable of slowing him down, while also coughing up the most post-up points per game in basketball. Williamson is a slasher but he’s also still averaging over three points per game from the post. The Nets also rank 27th against skilled centers, 30th against point forwards and 25th against primary ball handlers. The Pelicans backcourt is also banged up, as they remain without Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kira Lewis. As a result, Lonzo Ball has been great in two games since returning from injury, scoring 52 fantasy points in both games. His price tag is up to $7,700 on DraftKings now and I’d certainly prefer to pay that price if Ingram is still out for the Pelicans.
Knicks @ Celtics preview
BOS -3, total: 209
Boston is coming off a rough game against the 76ers Tuesday and now faces a slower-paced team that also defends at a high level. As a result, the Celtics aren’t priorities for me for the second consecutive evening, though the core players do get a bit of a bump with Evan Fournier sidelined and Kemba Walker expected to rest. Jaylen Brown is someone I love to play in fast-paced games, as he’s among the league leaders in transition scoring. However, this doesn’t set up well for him, facing a New York team that ranks dead last in pace on the year. Still, Brown is sporting a 32% usage rate with Walker off the floor this season, while Jayson Tatum is at 33% in the split. Meanwhile, Marcus Smart is going to play huge minutes once again in this game and is at a fair $6,000 price tag on DK. Finally, Robert Williams unsurprisingly got into early foul trouble against Joel Embiid Tuesday but facing Nerlens Noel and Taj Gibson should lead to more court time for Williams.
Once again, from New York I am really only interested in Julius Randle, who remains inside the top-12 in both rebounding chances and touches per game for the season. The backcourt remains a mess with three or four point guards getting meaningful minutes, while RJ Barrett just hasn’t shown the consistent ceiling for me to really consider him here.
Mavericks @ Rockets preview
DAL -11.5, total: 223.5
After missing a few games, Kristaps Porzingis is expected to return to the lineup Wednesday, and it is a fantastic spot. The Rockets are coughing up the second-most points per game to the post this season (6.7), while Porzingis is averaging 4.3 post-up points per game on the year, good for the eighth-most in basketball. He is also shooting nearly 51% from the post this season, while averaging 1.0 points per possession. Christian Wood, who he’ll see for the majority of this game, is surrendering 1.8 post-up points per game just by himself, which is the most in the league, as well as a whopping 56% field goal percentage off the play type. Of course, you can certainly look to Luka Doncic, especially against a weak Rockets team.
With Danuel House inactive last game against the Suns, Kelly Olynyk joined the starting lineup and scored 30.5 fantasy points in 29 minutes. House will remain sidelined for a week or so, keeping Olynyk firmly in play at $5,900 on DK. And his presence hurts Wood, as the Rockets finally will have someone with some size alongside him in the frontcourt. Since joining the Rockets, Olynyk is sporting a near 21% usage rate, while averaging a solid 1.14 fantasy points per minute. Meanwhile, if John Wall returns to action, I really don’t have much interest in him at $8,100 or Kevin Porter at $7,200.
Grizzlies @ Hawks preview
ATL -2, total: 225
Ja Morant suffered a back injury late during Tuesday’s game and should be considered extremely questionable to play here on Wednesday. Memphis could also potentially be without DeAnthony Melton, Justise Winslow and Brandon Clarke, which would open up plenty of value. If Morant sits, Tyus Jones would likely enter the starting lineup. With Morant off the floor this season, Jones is sporting a healthy 21% assist rate, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute in the split. In eight games as a starter this season, he is averaging 9.5 points, 6.9 assists, 3.0 rebounds and 1.9 steals per game in 29 minutes of action. He is just $3,300 on DraftKings for this game. Jonas Valanciunas is already a very solid play at just $7,200 on DK because we know what his ceiling is at that price. But Valanciunas gets a 2% bump in usage with Morant off the floor this season, while averaging nearly 1.30 fantasy points per minute. He’s recorded a double-double in each of his last 10 contests and facing Clint Capela and his league-leading 12.0 paint touches per game should ensure that JoVal will remain around the basket all game long. Dillon Brooks is sporting a 29% usage rate with Morant off the floor and would have a bit higher of a ceiling if he sits, especially since his minutes could finally creep up over the 30 mark.
For the Hawks, an $8,800 price tag on Trae Young is really tough to ignore. Memphis has actually been very good against point guards this season, but we know that Young is matchup proof, and that price is just a bit too cheap, especially with John Collins still sidelined. With Atlanta on the second end of a back-to-back here, it is also possible that Danilo Gallinari sits, which would keep you feeling good about Bogdan Bogdanovic. Young is sporting a 34.4% usage rate with both Collins and Gallinari off the court this season, while Bogdanovic is averaging just over a fantasy point per minute. I also wouldn’t hate Kevin Huerter at $5,100 on DK if Gallinari is out.
Hornets @ Thunder preview
CHA -5.5, total: 213.5
Terry Rozier continues to see a ton of usage with LaMelo Ball out for the season but an $8,400 price tag on DraftKings is very high. His production has still been a bit up-and-down as of late but with Gordon Hayward also out, he should continue to see plenty of volume. With both Ball and Hayward off the floor this season, Rozier is sporting a 29.2% usage rate, while averaging 1.17 fantasy points per minute. Meanwhile, Miles Bridges has entered the starting five and while he isn’t the most efficient player in fantasy, his rebounding rate does jump up to 20% with both Ball and Hayward off the floor this season. And with Malik Monk also sidelined, Bridges’ floor for minutes should be 30. While P.J. Washington’s minutes have been all over the place as of late, I think this could be a get-right spot for him, facing a Thunder team that is allowing the fourth-most points per possession (1.02) to the post this season, as well as the fourth-worst field goal percentage off the play type (53.3%).
You know, if the Thunder could actually keep a game close, Moses Brown could play 30-plus minutes and haul in a ton of rebounds, especially against a weak Hornets interior that is surrendering the second-most rebounds per game to opposing centers on the year (16.7). Brown, meanwhile, is averaging 19.1 rebounding chances per game over the last 15 contests, good for the fifth-most in the NBA. The rest of the Thunder players are all priced around the mid-to-low $5,000 range, making them more cash game options than tournament for me.
Spurs @ Nuggets preview
DEN -7, total: 222
Jamal Murray sat out Tuesday with knee soreness and is questionable for this game. Monte Morris, who recently returned from his own injury, started in his place and scored 20 fantasy points in 20 minutes. If this game is closer and Murray remains sidelined, Morris’ minutes will be much closer to the 30 range and he’s averaging 0.92 fantasy points per minute with Murray off the court this season. At $3,700 on DK, that would be more than enough. Once again, I still have zero clue why Nikola Jokic won’t get priced up, but I intend to take advantage. He is coming off a near perfect game, scoring 28 points to go along with 11 assists, eight rebounds and just one turnover. And with Murray off the floor this season, Jokic is sporting a 34.7% usage rate, 28% assist rate and 28% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.69 fantasy points per minute. Meanwhile, Will Barton is a perfectly fine play at his $5,400 price tag but obviously becomes a much better option if Murray is out. His usage rate jumps up by about 2.5% with Murray off the floor this season.
The Spurs, meanwhile, were also without their starting point guard in their last game, as Dejounte Murray sat out with foot soreness. We’ll see if he returns here but in his absence Monday, San Antonio moved Derrick White over to the starting point guard spot, while Luka Samanic also entered the starting lineup. With Murray off the floor this season, White is sporting a solid 24.2% usage rate, while DeMar DeRozan’s climbs all the way up to 30%. I like this spot for DeRozan regardless of Murray’s status, as he faces a Denver team that struggles to protect the paint. In fact, they are allowing a 68% field goal percentage at the rim this season, the highest mark in basketball. That could bode well for DeRozan, who is averaging 18.6 drives per game on the year, good for the fifth-most in the NBA. And if Murray sits, the peripherals likely go up for everyone, as he actually ranks second on the team with 11.4 rebounding chances per game. DeRozan’s assist rate climbs to 25% with Murray off the court, while his rebounding rate is at a solid 15% clip. Finally, I still have no issues getting to Keldon Johnson at $5,600 on DraftKings, especially if Murray is out.
Jazz @ Suns preview
UTA -1, total: 226
This is one of the few games with zero injuries to monitor, but it does feature two slower-paced teams that play strong defense. Devin Booker has been very good lately, averaging 48 fantasy points over his last five games. He’ll probably be overlooked on this slate due to the combination of matchup and price increase, which makes him an intriguing GPP option. However, I prefer Chris Paul in this spot, as he faces a Utah team that is quietly surrendering the third-most points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll this season (21.7). Paul has also recorded double-digit assists in each of his last three games and I think this is a sneaky-good spot for the veteran point guard. I really liked Deandre Ayton ahead of his last game with the Rockets and he delivered, scoring 46.7 fantasy points. However, I am back off him here against Utah, especially when you consider just how inconsistent he has been over the course of the season.
For the Jazz, I still don’t feel too comfortable paying $8,800 for Donovan Mitchell, especially against a Suns team that can throw multiple really good defenders at him, whether it be Paul, Booker, Mikal Bridges or even Jae Crowder. Once again, the prices on these Utah players really aren’t all that appealing to me and while you can always feel good about playing Rudy Gobert, he definitely isn’t my favorite center on this slate.
