Gut Feelings: Fantasy Baseball Midweek Report (4/3)

This column will serve as a mid-week review of the most relevant fantasy baseball nuggets and trends. There won’t be a standard format, yet the goal will be to keep you informed about the fluidity of playing time, batting orders, rotations and bullpens to help guide fantasy lineup and roster decision-making.

In the News

We are only about one week into the season, and there is so much going on. Let’s start with these torpedo bats that seem to be a primary discussion point in baseball.

First of all, they are absolutely legal, and they are not going away anytime soon. They were developed by an MIT physicist named Aaron Leanhardt, a former analyst with the New York Yankees, now a field coordinator with the Miami Marlins. Leanhardt (aka Lenny) created the bats based on a common concern from players wanting to make better contact with pitches. Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and many star players don’t use torpedo bats, but the list of those who do is quickly growing. Here are the current torpedo bat users through April 1:

It might feel like league offense is booming, but power is up only about 10% through this exact point of the 2024 season. Meanwhile, stolen bases are up by roughly 18%. Oneil Cruz stole his league-leading sixth base on Wednesday afternoon. San Diego Padres Fernando Tatis Jr. has swiped five, Manny Machado has four and 29-year-old Tampa Bay Rays rookie Jake Mangum stole three bases between Monday and Tuesday. Speaking of Mangum, it already looks like he’s going to be a heavily targeted hitter in FAAB this weekend. Mangum was only added to six NFBC Main Event teams Sunday between $5 and $29, with no runner-up bids. Meanwhile, fellow Tampa rookie Kameron Misner was added in 23 Main Events with an average winning bid of $15. The Rays certainly need an outfielder to step up with the prolonged expected absence of Josh Lowe.

It’s early, but Sutter Health Park is off to the races, as 45 runs were scored in the three-game series between the Chicago Cubs and the Athletics, in their temporary home. It’s a small sample, but our priors are already being confirmed about this minor-league launching pad, and we aren’t even close to the summer months when Sacramento temperatures will surpass 100 degrees. The Rays’ temporary park – George M. Steinbrenner Field – is off to a bit of a slower start, but that might have more to do with the fact that basement-dwelling offenses such as the Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates are this park’s first visitors. We will want to lean on these minor-league parks in tie-breaking start/sit decisions for our fringe-roster bats in all formats.

After the Athletics visit the Rockies in Coors Field for three games this weekend, they head back “home” to Sacramento for three games against the Padres and three against the Mets. The Rays will play three in Arlington (vs. the Rangers) this weekend, then head home for a long two-week homestand to face the Los Angeles Angels (x 3), Atlanta Braves (x 3), Boston Red Sox (x 3) and the New York Yankees (x 4). We won’t dive into FAAB and streaming options yet but be rest assured that many of our targets these next couple of weeks will come from these teams.

AL Batting Orders

Let’s take a deeper look into how some of these MLB managers are setting their lineups against righties and lefties and we’ll see if we can uncover any shifting trends or increases/decreases in fantasy value. I’ll dig into AL lineups this week and NL lineups next week.

Toronto Blue Jays

Bo Bichette has asserted himself atop this lineup against both lefties and righties as has surprise power hitter Andrés Giménez, in the cleanup spot. Rookie Alan Roden has mostly batted ninth against righties (seventh once) and will likely sit against lefties. Will Wagner has started at 3B or DH against righties only and has stolen a bit of Ernie Clement’s playing time in the early going.

Baltimore Orioles

The O’s expect star hitter Gunnar Henderson to return Thursday, and he should assume his role as the leadoff man. Colton Cowser (thumb) will be out for at least six weeks. A red-hot Jordan Westburg has been leading off against lefties the last couple of days and Cedric Mullins (also red hot) has been in the lineup against lefties as well, albeit towards the bottom. Jackson Holliday seems to be earning consistent playing time. He batted ninth against a lefty Tuesday, then took a seat against another lefty Wednesday.

Boston Red Sox

The order has been consistent, though it will be interesting to see what manager Alex Cora does with Rafael Devers (0-19, 15 K’s through Tuesday’s contests) if Devers continues to struggle. Devers once again lined up in the two-hole on Wednesday and had two base-knocks with no punchouts. Rookie Kristian Campbell looks incredible, just signed an extension and is locked into this lineup as the (mostly) everyday second baseman. Backup catcher Carlos Narváez has earned just one of the first five starts with Connor Wong earning the bulk of the playing time behind the plate.

New York Yankees

The “Austin Wells, Leadoff Man” experiment was going just fine, but 37-year-old Paul Goldschmidt has drawn three straight starts batting first – once against a lefty, twice against righties. Following Goldy the last few games have been Cody Bellinger (2), Aaron Judge (3), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (4), Anthony Volpe (5), Austin Wells (6) and Jasson Domínguez (7). Ben Rice sat against the lefty Saturday but otherwise played against all righties and has extended his hot spring into the season by hitting .500 with two homers in his first four games.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays suffered a big blow with Josh Lowe out at least until Memorial Day. Yandy Díaz and Brandon Lowe maintain the top two spots in the order, but the rest continues to shift. Most notably, rookie Jake Mangum hitting fourth then third in his last two starts. Jonathan Aranda usually occupies the 4 or 5 spot. Taylor Walls is arguably the league’s worst hitter, but he has been a mainstay in the Rays lineup due to his defense. Christopher Morel started in three of the first four days but has hit the bench against the last two righties.

Chicago White Sox

Nothing too exciting here. You’ve got Nick Maton as the leadoff man against righties, Luis Robert Jr. (who doesn’t want to be there) hitting second and usually some mix of Andrew Vaughn, Andrew Benintendi and Miguel Vargas 3-4-5. Matt Thaiss has drawn most of the starts against righties with Korey Lee drawing only two of six.

Cleveland Guardians

We loved seeing Kyle Manzardo in the lineup against a lefty on Opening Day, and we will continue to see it. Manzardo hits third against righties and fifth against lefties. He drew his first start of the season at first base Wednesday. We need nine more of those for him to qualify at 1B in NFBC. Bo Naylor has drawn 5-of-6 starts at catcher to open the season. Nolan Jones hits fifth against righties and has hit the bench against both lefties this season. Gabriel Arias (2B/3B) and Brayan Rocchio (SS) are essentially locked into the bottom of the order. Lane Thomas moved slightly down the order the last couple of days as his 2024 second-half slide extends into 2025 (.143/.182/.143).

Detroit Tigers

We sure didn’t see this one coming a week ago – triple-position-eligible journeyman Zach McKinstry as the Tigers leadoff hitter against righties. The Tigers are hurting with three of their top players on IL – Parker Meadows, Matt Vierling and just this week, Gleyber Torres. Yet those scrappy bastards are somehow still competing and even winning ballgames. There was preseason talk about Javier Báez earning work in the outfield, and more playing time in general, but he has only started two of the first six games. Second-year shortstop Trey Sweeney has been starting against righties. Colt Keith has started every day – the first two games at 1B and the last four at 2B, with Spencer Torkelson sliding over from DH to 1B when Torres went down. Tork has worked his way into the heart of the lineup between Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter.

Kansas City Royals

A pretty sexy top of the lineup despite the boring home park with Jonathan India (1), Bobby Witt Jr. (2), Vinnie Pasquantino (3) and Salvador Perez (4). The Royals have only faced righty SPs, which is why Michael Massey has been in the Royals lineup every day. I do believe he will have a mini breakout here. The ghost of Cavan Biggio has started four of six games — three at 1B, one in left field. Kyle Isbel and MJ Melendez will mostly ride pine against lefties.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins are off to a cold start. They will be fine, but perhaps they should fire Rocco Baldelli first. Just a thought. Matt Wallner has been the leadoff man against righties – we haven’t seen the power yet but he’s cut down on the strikeouts – a 5:5 K:BB ratio through six games. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have been mostly set as the 2-3 hitters. Jose Miranda has been getting no love by having to hit eighth and ninth, but I’m not worried. Buy in and we’ll ride. Edouard Julien was sick when the season started, and that’s why he wasn’t in the lineup that first weekend. He should draw starts against most righties.

Sacramento Athletics

It was nice to see Tyler Soderstrom in the lineup against a lefty Tuesday. It’s a good idea to let him, Lawrence Butler and JJ Bleday play every day. Jacob Wilson has looked very good (offensively and defensively). He has hit ninth and sixth in the order. It would make sense to see him lock into that sixth spot, especially after his 3-4 day on Wednesday. Shea Langeliers won’t get many days off – they need his bat in the lineup. He may draw some starts eventually at DH, but Brent Rooker has yet to start in the outfield.

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros were one of the least platooned offenses last season, and that trend is continuing early this season. Manager Joe Espada will likely ride the hot hand at different spots (Brendan Rodgers vs. Mauricio Dubón at 2B, Jake Meyers vs. Chas McCormick in CF). The top six is locked in and steady for now with Jose Altuve, Isaac Paredes, Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Yainer Diaz and Jeremy Peña. Cam Smith might have a long leash, but his red-hot spring hasn’t transferred into the regular season and we should monitor his production and defense to get a sense if a demotion would be on the horizon.

Los Angeles Angels

A couple of steady spots early on: Taylor Ward hitting first and Mike Trout and Jorge Soler at the 3-4. Luis Rengifo hit seventh in the first few games and has moved to the two-spot over the last two games. Logan O’Hoppe has started four games and Travis d’Arnaud, two. Keep an eye out for Kyren Paris who might start to earn more playing time soon. Tim Anderson has started three of six, two at SS and one at 2B. Yoán Moncada is locked into the 5-hole.

Seattle Mariners

They do have Julio Rodríguez; otherwise, staring at this horrific offense might cause temporarily blindness – be careful. The front-four has been the same against lefties and righties – Victor Robles, Julio, Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena. Ryan Bliss is going to steal 30-plus bases, maybe 40. He is the Mariners’ everyday second baseman. Mitch Garver might get Haniger’d if he doesn’t get going in the next few weeks. Garver will draw starts against southpaws. He is 1-12 and struck out three times on Wednesday.

Texas Rangers

There will eventually come a time where you might be suffering from whiplash watching these dudes mash homer after homer. Wyatt Langford and Adolis García got the party started and the rest will join soon. Hopefully, Josh Jung will come off the IL too (hey guys, what about me!). Josh Smith has been earning the bulk of starts at 3B and played SS Wednesday with Ezequiel Duran starting at 3B with Corey Seager getting a day off. Leody Taveras has played every day so far. The Rangers have only faced right-handed starting pitchers, hence why Kyle Higashioka – usually the short side platoon catcher – has earned two of the first six starts.

Gut Feelings

It’s obviously very early, but this gut is feeling quite good about my core preseason targets. Seiya Suzuki leads MLB in strikeouts (17 through nine games) but has more than made up for it with his hot bat — 7-15 with 3 HR and 9 RBI in this series against the A’s. My Kyle Tucker and Fernando Tatis Jr. combo in the Ultimate Auction and YOLO Main Event has me pumped. And I can’t forget about my St. Louie stalwarts (Iván Herrera, Lars Nootbaar, Victor Scott II) making me proud. I can’t tell you how thrilled I was to see Herrera hit three bombs against the Angels Wednesday.

That will do it for this week’s Gut Feelings. See you for some FAAB this weekend.