NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Party people … can y’all get funky? Groove is in the heart! Groovin’ With Govier is on for 2024, and so is the 2024 FTN Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide featuring some of the best in the business. FTN Fantasy Baseball’s head of content Vlad Sedler has put together a stellar lineup of guest writers covering a wide range of player analysis, game theory and draft strategy topics. It also features my annual article on H2H strategy plus a bonus podcast complement diving deeper into H2H strategy with Dan Strafford and Michael Waterloo.
All of this comes just in time for the commencement of the annual fantasy baseball draft rituals, which will take us up to Opening Day 2024. I’m referring to the proper Opening Day Thursday, March 28th, not the faux altruistic, “for the love of the game” crap MLB is attempting to sell us between the Dodgers and Padres March 20 and 21 in South Korea. Please hit me up on Twitter or better yet subscribe to our FTN Fantasy Baseball package where all season long our exclusive Discord provides our subs with unlimited access to all of our staff experts.
Our Main Export Is Crippling Depression
Last weekend my wife Leigh Ann and I packed our brand new Nordace bags from Christmas and traveled down to Cleveland for the weekend. Of course, since we left from Detroit, we utilized the good old 80/90 turnpike eastbound toward Cleveland, which features wonderful American landmarks like the city of Sandusky, home to Cedar Point, America’s roller coast! The reason for traveling wasn’t so much for the turnpike experience but rather drafting for fantasy baseball. I am a part of GLARF, known as the Great Lakes Area Roto Fantasy League, one of 11 regional leagues around the United States and Canada. The whole point of this league is to bring people together to draft in person while making real-life connections with others in the region who love fantasy baseball. Our extremely well-organized commissioner Dave McDonald set up this year’s draft at a former hostel in a section of Cleveland known as Ohio City. The previous two live drafts were both in Chicago. I missed out on both of them. One year I had a crisis that I couldn’t escape. The following year for 2023 there was a devastating snowstorm that dumped 10 inches of snow on us right on the night we were supposed to leave. This year there was no stopping me as I was going to make the event in person.
Our league is hosted on NFBC and has been the last couple of seasons after the inaugural season was hosted on Fantrax. We had trades back then, which was an awesome attribute about the league that I do miss. We are a 15-team 5×5 standard Roto league with two starting catchers (I know) plus FAAB runs. The whole thing is a big project to generate money for charity. This year I got to witness that generosity firsthand, as GLARF donated $3,300 to a local high school that Dave McDonald and fellow GLARF member Jake Halusker (both from Rotosaurus) attended. My wife and I, along with most of the GLARF crew, were able to sit down with these service volunteers, who were not only mentoring kids in the area but also providing support to the local homeless and others in need who are less fortunate.
Obviously, there was pizza, which was pounded by everybody after a brief speech by Jake, who spoke eloquently about how important service to his fellow humans became in his life during his formative years. People helping people, It’s good stuff.
Jake also put together a baseball trivia quiz, displayed on the monitors in the lunchroom. All of the kids who participated in this event came in on a Saturday morning and were extremely pleasant teenagers. The only mild disappointment had to do with their baseball acumen. It was lacking. The future is blazing hot for those kids, but if this event wasn’t a clear example of MLB failing to reach the youth of today, it was at the very least a reminder of the struggle baseball has had in recent years to properly market their wonderful players.
Once the charitable event was completed, it was time for the draft. A 30-round draft complete with a projector provided by my Metro Detroit pal Aaron Cumming. We had reserved the entire floor of the hostel for just us.
The draft commenced, and I drew the 10 spot in this 15-team draft. I was primed with an excellent location next to Dave and fellow Detroiter Marty Tallman right in front of the projector. My opening selection was none other than Shohei Ohtani, now of the Los Angeles Dodgers. I did have Spencer Strider targeted at No. 10, but I was sniped by Dave at Pick 9, despite him protesting that Strider was not his planned first choice. I chose to draft a different Atlanta Brave (Austin Riley) in the next round. I had the option of choosing between Riley and Matt Olson, but I felt that batting average was a difference maker more than anything else between them.
It’s important to note that this was my first draft of 2024. (I’m not exactly sure how we landed on an early February date to draft.) I was excited about the draft, but I was not 100% confident quite yet since this was my first build of the year. This is common for me — I always get a little bit sharper with each draft on the calendar. I usually prefer to draft in March, and I’ve often found that my best drafts come within a week or so the season’s debut. I suppose it makes sense that my results would improve as the season draws closer because I have more drafting reps by then.
The other reason I draft better the closer we get to Opening Day relates to the rosters of all 30 MLB clubs becoming final. The lineup, rotation and expectation of each player’s role wherever they may start the year makes it easier to determine playing time. Spring training cuts are locked in, and the unfortunate injured souls are easily avoided. Below is the typical NFBC draft board. There’s something comforting about this board. Whenever I see it I feel good. Names, positions and color coding come together to take me away, Calgon-style. Here’s how the first 10 rounds of the 2024 GLARF Draft went. Remember I am picking in the 10 spot where I drafted Ohtani and Riley:
There was no doubt that my third pick of Adley Rutschman seemed to cause the most chatter among my leaguemates. I trust these people without fail. They must have felt Rutschman’s lack of stolen bases makes for a bigger risk in a setup that has an overall title component beyond the individual. To me, Rutschman is a reliable catcher who provides excellent on base skills plus batting average at a position that doesn’t have a lot of guys that can match his production. Top it off with his continued growth coming out of his prospect pedigree and his role as a team leader on a really solid offensive team that is filled with all kinds of talent that makes run production easier to come by than others. Rutschman was the first catcher in this draft, with runner-up J.T. Realmuto coming about a round and a half later in Round 5.
In Round 4, I was looking at a starting pitcher. As you can see on the board above, Round 4 was heavy on pitchers of all kinds — only three hitters went. I took Logan Webb. I admit Zac Gallen was looking mighty tempting, but I got sniped by On The Wire’s Adam Howe. I trust Webb because his ratios are excellent and he pitches in a friendly park despite the amount of offensive firepower on other teams in the NL West, which includes Coors Field. I know the first thing most people will ask is about the strikeouts. I felt I could still garner more strikeouts with guys who are less reliable in the ratio categories later on in the draft. To me, Webb is a steady workhorse on a solid team in a solid pitching park. Barring injury, Webb provides me with a sense of comfort thanks to his floor. I could have had Aaron Nola or the new Dodger Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but I have no regrets hanging tough with Webb.
After that I took two more pitchers. Both have excellent strikeout potential, and I think Jesús Luzardo is on the brink of being an ace. My sixth-round Joe Ryan selection made a few people pause. (Right after my Ryan pick, Dave McDonald selected the Orioles’ Kyle Bradish, who is now in elbow hell on the IL. Just a bad break.) Last year, Ryan had a 3.44 SIERA despite his 4.51 ERA. His strikeouts went up while his walks went down. Yes, the home runs and fly balls were an issue. In his home park in Minnesota, I have little concern. Also pitching in the weak AL Central helps his cause. At 27, Ryan is on the brink of becoming one of the better starters in the AL. I am banking on that.
After selecting three straight pitchers, I returned to the hitter pool drafting my first true outfielder in Esteury Ruiz. It should also be noted that Mike Trout went in Round 7. This has not been an uncommon sight in the other drafts I’ve reviewed. I could have taken Trout in Round 5 or 6, but one of my focuses this year is to reduce my exposure to guys who lack availability. Random sprains and strains are always lurking in the shadows. Some players are living off the reputation of production from the past; I need production to the max in the present. The Ruiz pick was a choice I thought I had to make because of my steal potential up until that point in the draft. This year, Oakland is a wasteland with no pressure to be found for anybody. If Ruiz is playing, he’s going to rack up a bunch of steals. I can live with the emptiness in other categories because he isn’t quite as useless as maybe a Billy Hamilton or a Mallex Smith type was.
Securing my first closer Alexis Díaz was money in the bank. I am thrilled to have gotten a closer of his caliber in Round 8. Josh Naylor could end up being one of the better hitters in baseball this year. Naylor is an example of a first baseman worth waiting for. I can’t wait to assess his stat line at the end of 2024. I will put Naylor up against some of the higher-ranked first baseman in this draft like Tristan Casas, Paul Goldschmidt or Christian Walker, all drafted earlier.
After a break, I opened up my proceedings in Round 11 with my second outfielder, Masataka Yoshida, the first time I’ve ever drafted this guy. He did not blow me away in his first MLB outing last season, with a 109 wRC+ in 580 plate appearances. He’s a 30-year-old veteran who should settle in once his second crack at the league gets underway. He was successful in all eight of his stolen base attempts last year, which provides hope for success if he can run 7-10 more times in 2024. This dude can hit the ball plenty hard enough (112 MPH max exit velocity as a rookie). The Red Sox outfield certainly looks crowded as of now, and I’m aware there is a new front office regime with Craig Breslow running things. Yoshida doesn’t have a splits problem against lefties — he simply had a slower second half, which to me is not a sign of any major lack of confidence or concern of weaker output to come. I could have chosen Evan Carter, Lars Nootbaar, Steven Kwan or TJ Friedl here.
One of my biggest concerns even now as I review this draft is waiting on shortstop — it was not until Round 14 that I finally locked one down. Ezequiel Tovar is a promising youngster who gets to play his home games at Coors. He has wheels and there’s no pressing reason (outside of the Rockies being the Rockies — always a concern) for him to fear a loss of playing time. I felt he was a better choice than Jeremy Peña, Carlos Correa, Zach Neto or Vaughn Grissom. Even the SS options who went ahead of him in Trevor Story, Willy Adames and Tommy Edman weren’t clearly ahead of where Tovar is for me right now. Mr. Hype himself, Jackson Holliday, was taken right before my Tovar pick, but I would not have taken him there either despite his incredibly hyped arrival. The Orioles are loaded with talent, so even though Holliday has shown tremendous advancement already, I still don’t know if 2024 is the year for Holliday in redraft. Tovar does not crush the ball hard by any means, but he is slowly improving his hard hit rate to the mid-30% range. Tovar quietly had 37 doubles in 2023. Playing at Coors is certainly an advantage in that department. If he can tack on 7-10 more dongs and improve his contact this season, I’ll feel pretty good about him as my starting shortstop in a 15-teamer. I admit, though, that it would have been prudent to select a shortstop earlier and then back that selection up with Tovar later. That’s the lesson that I can apply to my next draft.
I selected two Rays starters in this range. I’m really excited about Shane Baz this season. I was getting hyped in 2022 when he got off to a solid start before he tore up his arm in May. He has recovered, but he only threw 40 IP over nine starts in 2021 and 2022. The number of innings he’s capable of is certainly in question. At this point in the draft, I felt Baz’ talent, combined with the development of the staff in Tampa, gives me hope he can be one of these guys that fills in those strikeouts totals I may have sacrificed when I took Webb as my SP1. As for last year’s FAAB sensation Taj Bradley, I really like his stuff. I expect him to only get better going forward. He was up and down a few times last year, but he was able to log a solid load of innings (104) and took his lumps, which will serve him well as he begins his second stint as a big-leaguer. His 3.82 SIERA reinforces optimism about his ability to improve on his 5.59 ERA in 2023.
Count me among the Matt Wallner truthers this year. The contact is my only concern with his hitting profile. A 31.5% K rate last year has to be acknowledged. My expectations for this 6-foot-6, 220-pound thumper from Southern Mississippi in Minnesota are lofty. His 144 wRC+ last season raises the bar despite only having 254 PA in MLB. After 20 rounds, Wallner was only my third outfielder to that point.
My draft is filled with a few errors from a roster construction standpoint. These are the final picks, and I did not add another shortstop, which is definitely going to cause me problems all season long unless I can strike it rich with an up-and-coming type when FAAB opens for this season (think Elly De La Cruz or Matt McLain last year).
It’s important to recognize how much things can change in the next five weeks. Sure, I will not have a shortstop magically added to my draft board. Yet there will be injuries that will remove players, which will then lead to new players who may not have been viewed as having a clear path to playing time prior to that. Last year, Ezequiel Duran was an example of a player who showed a little bit of promise in small doses in 2022 and then capitalized on playing time after the Rangers had injuries to Corey Seager and Josh Jung. Duran has position flexibility, which is always attractive, plus he’ll be on a team that has shown they will rely on him. In return he has shown them they were right to do so — 107 wRC+ in 439 PA is enough to warrant his addition to my squad there. I am partial to Duran and have been so over the last couple of years.
After my opening salvo for the final 10 picks, I did the old starting pitcher triple stack (again). Logan Allen of Cleveland is a guy who has built trust in a short amount of time. Yes, Tanner Bibee is more popular and clearly more desired by ADP standards. Yet Allen logged 125 IP last year with an ERA just under four. I do have to clarify that his SIERA was definitely higher than his ERA, in contrast to a guy like Joe Ryan I took earlier in the draft. The final 7-8 picks in a 30-round draft with FAAB provide me more flexibility in absorbing the risk with Allen. I honestly do not see him as a risk because I trust Cleveland’s ability to maximize their starting pitching.
With my follow-up pick of Jack Flaherty, I took someone I have never drafted in any fantasy draft. In the end, the pick is solely based on my respect for Tigers pitching coach Chris Fetter. Flaherty was relatively healthy last year and average at best. If Fetter can assist in improving his control while Flaherty maximizes the benefits of pitching at home in Comerica Park, then he is certainly worth a late-round lotto ticket in all formats.
Then, as if drafting Flaherty wasn’t risky enough, I went all the way by selecting Alek Manoah. This is the same pitcher who was in the mix two years ago as a Cy Young candidate. Everything that happened last year has to do with his internal challenges. I do not see any major physical issues, though some people blamed the new pitch clock on Manoah’s inconsistency. I think he just needs to gain his confidence back. If so, he may end up being the bargain of this entire draft.
I was really happy with the Michael Massey selection, because he showed improvement in the second half of 2023. Some of that improvement was related to his ability to hit lefties. Yes, all his power came against righties. His pedigree, paired with his ability to weather the difficulties he suffered through, bode well for his chances in the coming season. If Adam Frazier scares anybody off, then there is nothing more to be done. Remember, any pick this late is no big loss, as I am really fluid on any of my picks at the end of the draft.
My mandate for the final five picks was clear: I needed outfielders. I went on a tear, loading up on a guy who can’t stay healthy in Mitch Haniger; a stolen base whiz who has lots of competition in Jake McCarthy; a dude who the Angels gave up on who definitely has the potential to hit for power with speed on a much better roster in Houston in Trey Cabbage; and finally the Cuban who was highly touted but didn’t perform all that much in 2023 in Oscar Colás. If Haniger could get 20-plus homers this season, I’ll be pleased with that, as I needed to fill in some power. I closed out my final pick with a guy I used as a streamer several times last season who pitches in the very comfy confines of a ballpark loaded with foul territory: Paul Blackburn. He’s got pitches for days while also having the ability to miss a few bats. Yes, the walks do raise concerns, but as I’ve said, these late-round selections are interchangeable on the FAAB market.
In the end, I know the roster construction mistakes will offer me a challenge, especially at shortstop. Where I actively improved as a drafter was my willingness to get a few closers I can trust now instead of waiting to go to the free agent wire. That has always been a staple of mine, adding guys who end up providing 30 saves despite being largely undrafted. I can still work on doing that, but I don’t have to feel pressured in that specific category of saves since I drafted well enough to roster three guys who should be able to get saves for their respective teams.
I wanted to mention that Team 4 is my FTN pal Lucas Biery. I think he drafted quite well. He took a lot of pitching early on and then in the middle rounds loaded up on some high-impact guys like Jackson Chourio and Junior Caminero. If those guys can hit now, Lucas will be living the dream this season in GLARF.
Screenshots
Kyle Bradish, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Unfortunate news came out this week about Kyle Bradish’s pitching elbow. That’s all that needs to be said, right? For those who crave more, Bradish hit the IL with a sprained UCL. Plus teammate John Means is a month behind schedule in his return from further delays in his repaired pitching elbow. Bradish is now a stay-away barring a big (and doubtful) change in news.
Eduardo Escobar, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
This dude just won’t go away. I admire that. I will always be amazed by his 2019 season. (Who cares if it was influenced heavily by the juiciest of juiced balls?) I’m not so much looking to Eduardo Escobar as a staple of this Toronto lineup this year as much as I’m concerned about who he might usurp if he makes the team. Davis Schneider is my dude! I don’t want trouble for him. Isiah Kiner-Falefa could just disappear from this roster and that would be fine with me. Right now, this is more about something to write about than it is about Escobar being a real threat.
Spencer Turnbull, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
Spencer Turnbull does have a no-hitter under his belt, and nobody can take that away. The 31-year-old could secure a role as a swing man or the first call-up when one of Philly’s starters hits the IL or if a guy like Cristopher Sánchez stumbles out the gate. However, he does have an option remaining (though, since he’s been a big leaguer for over five years, he can refuse a demotion). I always liked Turnbull’s arsenal on the mound. Especially his slider. If he makes waves and snatches a role right away, it’s at least worth monitoring.
Yasmani Grandal, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
Losing Endy Rodríguez for the season has led to this. Yasmani Grandal seems to be nearly washed up. He had been at least a 100 wRC+ player from 2012 until he fell off sharply, with a wRC+ of 68 in 2022 and 80 in 2023. He still has an eye that can get him on base just enough to offset his declining contact ability. Henry Davis was looking at catching duties this year. That could still be the case as old man Grandal might not hold up over the season as a catcher.
Eric Lauer, SP, Free Agent
Last year I was hell for Eric Lauer. Unfortunately, his physical issues gave way to a demotion, which then led to him stepping away from the team for about a month before returning at the end of the season for one last hurrah. It didn’t go well as he was rocked by the Cubs, surrendering 8 ER with 3 homers. Lauer is still only 28, and there definitely will be a team who takes a chance on him sooner than later. He wasn’t elite, but he certainly could hold his own in the middle of a rotation.
Carlos Santana, 1B, Minnesota Twins
Carlos Santana has certainly held off Father Time. I streamed him a few times last year while he was with Pittsburgh. His reliable output makes him a viable consideration at corner infield in 15-teamers and deeper.
Justin Verlander, SP, Houston Astros
It’s spring training, which means the inevitable ailment or inconvenient injury will pop up. Justin Verlander is behind on his throwing schedule weeks. Doesn’t sound like we should panic yet, but my favorite pitcher of the post-roids era will be 41 next Tuesday. This is a pitcher who has 3,325 innings just in the regular season. With 257 wins to his credit, I truly think he can still crack 300. If he has four more seasons of at least 11 wins, we’re in business. As for this year for redraft purposes, Verlander’s career 3.24 ERA combined with having only two full seasons in his career with an ERA over 4 is just too consistent to ignore. My FTN pal Lucas Biery and I talked about drafting Verlander last weekend. Initially I said Verlander’s too old. Then right after I said that I realized I was talking about a freak of a human. I’m not sweating his delay.
Jordan Groshans, 3B/SS, New York Yankees
The Marlins let Jordan Groshans loose and the Bronx Bombers pounced on the claim. Groshans had 66 walks to 92 strikeouts in 528 PA in AAA last year. The power was minimal and there is no speed to speak of. At this point Groshans is looking like a bust. If there is one sport where a guy can show up later in his career and make a sudden impact, it’s baseball. Just don’t expect any miracles just because he’s a Yankee now.
The Scott Boras Five
When will it be obvious enough for us all to call out the owners for colluding against Scott Boras? I’m no Boras lover, but as pitchers and catchers report, the glaring absences of Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery, J.D. Martinez and Matt Chapman are palpable. The latest Boras time suck related to Snell has to do with the Angels. Will Arte Moreno finally give in to the price Snell demands? Does it really matter? I suppose Snell would be a decent fit in that ballpark with new manager Ron Washington at the helm. Snell and Montgomery may have more to lose in the interim than their hitting counterparts. At some point these guys all get contracts, but to me this stalemate signals to the masses that the rift between players and ownership is still just as tense as it ever was. We have three more seasons to play before the next nightmare begins. Welcome to hell.
