Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dvoa NFL Articles
NFL
DVOA
AGL Totals by Position, from Jets Quarterbacks to Patriots Cornerbacks
Earlier this week, we examined adjusted games lost at the team level. Today, we’ll switch perspectives to evaluate the impact of injuries on each position. Note that adjusted games lost totals do not include the postseason. As we noted in our first article, injury totals were down across the NFL this year, so there aren’t […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Texans Lead 2023 AGL Numbers with OL Injury Record
The Houston Texans were a surprise playoff team in 2023, and they made it to the playoffs despite leading the league in injuries to significant players according to our adjusted games lost (AGL) numbers. Cleveland also made it to the playoffs despite a high AGL in 2023. Other teams that suffered a ton of injuries […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Isaac Guerendo Tops 2024 RB Speed Scores
The very top of the Speed Score leaderboards is some rarified air. Since electronic timing started at the combine in 1999, only 11 running backs have hit 120 or higher; a number usually reserved more for track stars than NFL stars. We hadn’t had anyone join the club since Jonathan Taylor ran a 4.39 back […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
NFL Combine: Translating Coachspeak to Reality
Minnesota Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah positively adores Justin Jefferson. Sean Payton would toss Russell Wilson into the mouth of a volcano if he could. The Chicago Bears braintrust still likes Justin Fields, but not nearly as much as they like their other options. The NFL scouting combine is a time for head coaches and […]
FTN Staff
NFL
DVOA
Reverse PGWE: The Least Expected NFL Wins Since 1979
A couple of years ago, I developed a new metric alled Post-Game Win Expectancy (PGWE). The idea was to explore games where the losing team has a higher DVOA rating than the winning team. How unlikely are these losses? PGWE has nothing to do with how good the teams are on the season, or coming […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
How Bad Was the Eagles’ Collapse?
Recently, I was hit up by a local reporter to talk about this year’s Philadelphia Eagles collapse down the stretch. The next day, Ross Tucker tweeted out about how public perception of Jalen Hurts has fallen way too low because of those last few games. I happen to be in agreement with him about this, […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Dynasty Rankings Update 2024
The Kansas City Chiefs were already a dynasty. But now they’re a Dynasty, capital-D, all rights reserved. After the NFL’s 100th season in 2019, I went back on our old website and attempted to systematically rank every dynasty in the history of the league, casting a wide net to attempt to catch any sustained period […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII DVOA and Quick Reads
The Kansas City Chiefs ended up with a higher DVOA than the San Francisco 49ers in their Super Bowl LVIII win. But as you might imagine given how good the Niners were in the regular season, that’s because of opponent adjustments. As befits a game where the Chiefs recovered six of seven fumbles including both […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII DVOA Preview
Well, here we are again with the question of whether we have to consider Patrick Mahomes as “playoff LeBron.” Does Mahomes specifically raise his game in the playoffs, to the point where we can’t accurately analyze the Super Bowl LVIII matchup because we can’t use past statistics to determine Kansas City’s strengths and weaknesses? Last […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Aaron Schatz’s 2023 NFL Award Ballot
This was my fourth year as an official Associated Press voter for both the All-Pro team and the end-of-season awards. A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a long article about my All-Pro votes. With the NFL awards now given out, I wanted to do the same and divulge my award ballot. Sign up for […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII: Learning from the Worst of the Chiefs and 49ers
Teams don’t get to the Super Bowl without playing good football. But not all teams are perfect and there are often bumps along the way. With that, we’ll continue a DVOA tradition of looking at not when the Super Bowl participants played their best, but when they were at their worst. Let’s look at the […]
FTN Staff
NFL
DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII Prop Bet Extravaganza
In 2004, the original Scramble for the Ball writers, Ian Dembsky and Al Bogdan, wrote the first Prop Bet Extravaganza at our old website, previewing the upcoming Patriots-Panthers Super Bowl. Twenty years later, the betting landscape has slightly changed. Twenty years ago, actually betting on these things was a bit more challenging. Unless you lived […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
All-Keep Choppin’ Wood Team 2023
Oh, did you think you’d be safe, just because of a little thing like an entire website shutting down? It takes more than that to stop the Woodchoppers from finding you. The All-Keep Choppin’ Wood Team is our annual attempt to sift through the debris of the season that was, pulling out the prime examples […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII Pre-Preview
I’m currently working on my 21st Super Bowl preview. That should run in the middle of next week, a few days before Super Bowl Sunday, but this means waiting more than a week before unveiling all the stat tidbits that get you ready for the big matchup. It was one thing when I was the […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Super Bowl LVIII DVOA Picks
Welcome to Week 22 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Conference Championship DVOA Ratings
Continuing with my traditions from the old site, we’re not going to bother with the full 32-team table of weighted DVOA ratings, since there are only two teams left and most teams haven’t played for three weeks. We’ll just take a quick look at both teams set for Super Bowl LVIII: The San Francisco 49ers […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Conference Championship Quick Reads: Mahomes Magic
Here are the best and worst players of the conference championship games according to our DYAR stats. Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks TotalDYAR PassDYAR RushDYAR Opp 1. Patrick Mahomes KC 30/39 241 1 0 2 147 139 8 BAL Mahomes had 125 passing DYAR before halftime and 13 passing DYAR after […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Lions at 49ers: DVOA Preview
One game more. For the Detroit Lions, this has been a season for wiping out droughts. They entered the year with the longest playoff losing streak, both in terms of games lost (9) and number of seasons since their last win (32); they took care of that against the Rams two weeks ago. They entered […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Chiefs at Ravens: DVOA Preview
NBA stat modelers have a problem. It’s called “playoff LeBron.” NBA teams are constantly sitting their star players for a game or two for “load management.” Some teams sit guys more than others. There’s also the sense that certain players aren’t really giving their all until we get to the postseason. Then we get to […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Bills vs. Chiefs and Legendary NFL Playoff Roadblocks
Losing in the playoffs is never fun. But really, it had to be them? If this year’s postseason feels somewhat familiar, there’s a reason for that. There have been 39 instances in NFL history of one team having at least a three-game postseason win streak over an opponent – not necessarily in consecutive years, but […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Conference Championship NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 21 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Divisional Round DVOA: Are Ravens The Hottest Team Ever?
The Kansas City Chiefs had the biggest win of the Divisional Round, despite the final score. But the Baltimore Ravens are by far the hottest team as we are down to four remaining in the conference championships. The Chiefs-Bills game may have come down to a missed field goal with a 27-24 final score, but […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Divisional Quick Reads: Lamar Jackson Runs Away With It
Lamar Jackson had one of the best rushing games in DYAR history against the Houston Texans this weekend. He had 11 carries for 100 yards and two touchdowns against one of the top run defenses in the NFL this year. That’s worth 60 DYAR, the sixth-best rushing game by a quarterback. That’s good because frankly, […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Chiefs at Bills: DVOA Preview
After a season full of panic, doubts, and thinkpieces about these two franchises, here we are again: the Kansas City Chiefs against the Buffalo Bills in the playoffs. This will be the third meeting in the past four postseasons. The previous meeting in the Divisional Round was a classic that saw the Chiefs tie the […]
FTN Staff
NFL
DVOA
Bucs at Lions: DVOA Preview
If Lions fans ever dared to dream that this would be the season their team won its first playoff game in 32 years, then they likely dreamed it in Week 6. The Lions had finished 2022 strong, spoiling their rival Packers’ playoff push and securing their first winning season in half a decade. They had started […]
Scott Spratt
NFL
DVOA
Texans at Ravens: DVOA Preview
The problem is that the Baltimore Ravens are just that good. The Baltimore Ravens finished the 2023 regular season with the No. 5 highest DVOA ever. Their season stood out for the huge victories over other good teams. They beat San Francisco 33-19 and it wasn’t that close. They beat Miami 56-19. They beat Detroit […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Packers at 49ers: DVOA Preview
On Sunday, the Green Bay Packers beat the Dallas Cowboys, becoming the first seventh seed to win a playoff game in NFL history. No, that’s not right. The Packers didn’t beat the Cowboys – they annihilated them. Jordan Love and the Packers put up a passing DVOA of 189.9%, the best in Green Bay franchise […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Can Lamar Jackson Break His Playoff Curse?
Lamar Jackson is a one-time MVP, looking like he’s going to be a two-time MVP in a couple of weeks. He is a regular feature in the Pro Bowl when healthy, and by any measurement or consideration is one of the best quarterbacks in football today. He is at the helm of the fifth-best team […]
Bryan Knowles
NFL
DVOA
Divisional NFL Picks
Welcome to Week 20 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Most Aggressive Coaches of 2023
Aggressiveness Index is a stat we introduced at our old site that measures how often NFL head coaches go for it on fourth down. We compare this not to when coaches should go for it based on EPA modeling but rather when coaches actually do go for it based on NFL history. Our current AI […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Wild Card DVOA: Packers Passing Party
Now updated with Monday games! The Green Bay Packers had a huge victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, much larger than the 48-32 final score. DVOA downweights the Dallas scores in the fourth quarter because they came with such a huge gap between the teams. As a result, Green Bay finished the game with […]
Aaron Schatz
NFL
DVOA
Wild Card Quick Reads: Love Has Won
Here’s Quick Reads for Wild-Card Weekend, now updated with the two Monday games! Quarterbacks Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks TotalDYAR PassDYAR RushDYAR Opp 1. Jordan Love GB 16/21 272 3 0 0 224 224 0 DAL As noted in today’s DVOA commentary, this was the best passing DVOA game ever for the […]
Aaron Schatz