Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Now updated with Monday Night Football.
Week 7 was a big week for the Lions in the Quick Reads! Jahmyr Gibbs had the top game by a running back and Amon-Ra St. Brown had the top game by a wide receiver. Jared Goff was third among quarterbacks. All three players got a nice boost in opponent adjustments for playing against the Vikings, so I thought it was a good time to look at which players have had the biggest opponent adjustments for the season to date.
It’s actually Sam Darnold of the Vikings who has one of the largest positive opponent adjustments from playing a hard schedule. The biggest adjustment belongs to Aaron Rodgers of the Jets, who goes from 90 passing YAR to 189 passing DYAR. Then come Darnold and Jordan Love On the other side, four players have had a significant downward adjustment due to schedule strength: Deshaun Watson — he’s been even worse than you realized given who he has played against — Caleb Williams, Joe Burrow, and Joe Flacco
Just as Rodgers has the largest passing adjustment, Breece Hall has the largest rushing adjustment. He goes from -55 rushing YAR to -12 rushing DYAR with the opponent adjustments. A number of running backs have an adjustment between 24 and 28 DYAR including Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and James Cook The largest downward adjustment belongs to D’Andre Swift of the Bears, who goes from -53 rushing YAR to -87 rushing DYAR. Kareem Hunt and Tank Bigsby have also played relatively easy schedules of opposing run defenses.
You see some of these same teams show up in the receiving opponent adjustments as well. The largest positive adjustment goes to Justin Jefferson, bringing him from 148 YAR to 174 DYAR. Darnell Mooney, Allen Lazard, and Drake London also have strong positive adjustments. Strong negative adjustments for easy schedules include both Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase of the Bengals as well as the two recently traded star receivers, Davante Adams and Amari Cooper
The tight ends with the strongest opponent adjustments so far are Tyler Conklin (positive) and Cole Kmet (negative).
On to the best and worst players of Week 7 by DYAR…
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