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Week 4 Quick Reads: Jayden Daniels’ Incredible Start

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Now updated with Monday Night Football!

Jayden Danielsis having an amazing start to his career. You’ve probably seen the remarkable stats across the Internet. Here are some and here are some more. DVOA does not love the Commanders as much as EPA does, but they still rank second so far in offense trailing only the Baltimore Ravens.

Daniels is just as impressive in our individual passing stats. Daniels is currently second in passing DYAR behind only Brock PurdyHe is first among qualifying quarterbacks in DVOA, but has 17 fewer pass plays than Purdy. Here’s the current Top 10 by passing DYAR, before the Monday night doubleheader:

Player Team DYAR Rk DVOA Rk
Brock Purdy SF 381 1 33.2% 3
Jayden Daniels WAS 366 2 38.0% 1
Lamar Jackson BAL 308 3 35.4% 2
Sam Darnold MIN 294 4 28.3% 5
Josh Allen BUF 274 5 28.4% 4
Baker Mayfield TB 264 6 16.2% 7
Joe Burrow CIN 252 7 13.7% 10
Dak Prescott DAL 228 8 12.4% 14
C.J. Stroud HOU 220 9 13.4% 11
Derek Carr NO 212 10 21.3% 6

The question now is whether Daniels can keep this up. To answer that question, I went looking for rookies who started their career similarly. I looked at team offensive stats because that was easier and less time consuming, but I went and looked at the best rookie quarterbacks in their first four starts since 1979.

If we look at the team offensive DVOA in a rookie quarterback’s first four starts, Daniels is second behind only Brock Purdyfor the 2022 49ers. There are other quarterbacks who are higher than Daniels in team passing DVOA, including Ben Roethlisberger, Dan Marino, Deshaun Watson, and Dak PrescottBut of course, Daniels is part of Washington’s running game too.

Here’s the list of quarterbacks whose offenses had positive DVOA in their first four starts:

Rookie Quarterbacks with Positive Team Offense DVOA in First 4 Starts, 1979-2024
Player Year Team W-L First
Start Wk
Off
DVOA
Pass
Offense
Brock Purdy 2022 SF 4-0 14 30.0% 51.7%
Jayden Daniels 2024 WAS 3-1 1 22.7% 45.6%
Dak Prescott 2016 DAL 3-1 1 21.4% 49.4%
Robert Griffin 2012 WAS 2-2 1 17.5% 43.0%
Colt McCoy 2010 CLE 2-2 6 17.4% 34.4%
Ben Roethlisberger 2004 PIT 4-0 3 17.3% 72.3%
Deshaun Watson 2017 HOU 2-2 2 15.8% 53.0%
Cam Newton 2011 CAR 1-3 1 11.8% 33.0%
Justin Herbert 2020 LAC 0-4 2 10.4% 45.1%
Dan Marino 1983 MIA 3-1 6 9.5% 53.7%
Carson Wentz 2016 PHI 3-1 1 7.3% 33.9%
Gardner Minshew 2019 JAX 2-2 2 5.5% 28.2%
Matt Ryan 2008 ATL 2-2 1 5.2% 1.9%
Andrew Luck 2012 IND 2-2 1 2.4% 23.2%
C.J. Stroud 2023 HOU 2-2 1 1.4% 38.6%

What stands out from this list is that nearly every quarterback on it continued to play well for his entire rookie year. Obviously, they didn’t all have great careers, but it’s hard to argue that Robert Griffin’s injuries tell us much about what will happen with Jayden DanielsThe major exception is Colt McCoy, who was surprisingly good in his first four starts for the 2010 Browns before fading and getting injured. But McCoy is really not a good comparable for Jayden Daniels, especially when it comes to the difference in resume between a third-round pick and the second overall selection and Heisman Trophy winner. (Gardner Minshew is another exception but he’s further down the list.)

The moral of the story is that there is every indication that Daniels will be able to continue at a high level. Maybe not this high a level, but a high offensive level. I think it is very unlikely that Daniels finishes his rookie year outside of the top dozen quarterbacks in the NFL.

One other note: This is the first week where there are opponent adjustments in the DYAR numbers. Those adjustments are currently at 40% of their final strength.

Quarterbacks

Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
MNF Jared Goff DET 18/18 292 2 0 3 165 165 0 SEA
1. C.J. Stroud HOU 27/40 345 2 0 2 162 152 10 JAX
2. Jayden Daniels WAS 26/30 233 1 1 0 152 139 13 ARI
3. Baker Mayfield TB 30/48 347 2 0 2 138 142 -4 PHI
MNF Geno Smith SEA 38/56 395 1 1 3 132 118 14 DET
4. Lamar Jackson BAL 14/18 156 2 0 1 126 113 13 BUF
5. Jordan Love GB 32/54 389 4 3 1 121 115 6 MIN
6. Dak Prescott DAL 22/27 221 2 0 1 116 121 -5 NYG
7. Sam Darnold MIN 20/28 275 3 1 2 106 106 0 GB
8. Joe Flacco IND 16/26 168 2 0 2 90 91 -1 PIT
9. Justin Fields PIT 22/33 312 1 0 4 80 68 12 IND
10. Daniel Jones NYG 29/40 281 0 1 1 76 86 -10 DAL

Here come the opponent adjustments! C.J. Stroud would be at 208 DYAR without the adjustment for Jacksonville’s poor defense this year. Jayden Daniels would be at 177 DYAR without the Arizona defensive adjustment… Jordan Love, on the other hand, would be at only 85 DYAR without the positive adjustment for facing the difficult Vikings pass defense. Love had -41 passing DYAR in the first half of this game and then 156 passing DYAR in the second half… Lamar Jackson had 126 passing DYAR before halftime and -12 passing DYAR after halftime… Dak Prescott had 101 passing DYAR before halftime and only 19 passing DYAR after halftime… Joe Flacco completed 6 of 8 passes on third downs, with two touchdowns and four other first-down conversions… Daniel Jones struggled in the red zone including a 5-yard completion on third-and-goal from the 8 and a sack on third-and-4 from the 16.

Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
11. Joe Burrow CIN 22/31 232 2 1 0 72 68 4 CAR
12. Brock Purdy SF 15/27 288 1 1 1 61 86 -25 NE
13. Patrick Mahomes KC 19/29 245 1 1 3 42 41 2 LAC
14. Justin Herbert LAC 16/27 179 1 0 2 41 56 -14 KC
15. Trevor Lawrence JAX 18/33 169 2 0 1 40 49 -9 HOU
16. Derek Carr NO 28/36 239 0 1 1 18 34 -16 ATL
17. Andy Dalton CAR 25/40 220 2 1 0 13 9 5 CIN
18. Matthew Stafford LAR 20/29 224 0 1 3 11 11 0 CHI
19. Caleb Williams CHI 17/23 157 1 0 3 11 14 -3 LAR
20. Gardner Minshew LV 14/24 130 0 0 2 10 10 0 CLE

Brock Purdy is getting dinged here for two aborted plays but the 49ers did recover both, and he had two scrambles to convert on third-and-3 and third-and-4… Justin Herbert had -28 DYAR on third and fourth down, with less than 1.0 net yards per pass including two sacks… Matthew Stafford led all quarterbacks this week with 87 DYAR on passes up the middle including six first downs.

Rk Player Team CP/AT Yds TD INT Sacks Total
DYAR
Pass
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Opp
MNF Mason Rudolph TEN 9/16 85 0 0 1 6 6 0 MIA
21. Kirk Cousins ATL 21/35 238 0 1 1 -4 -4 0 NO
22. Aaron Rodgers NYJ 24/41 225 0 0 5 -17 -18 1 DEN
23. Kyler Murray ARI 16/22 142 1 0 4 -30 -28 -2 WAS
24. Bo Nix DEN 12/25 60 1 0 0 -41 -30 -10 NYJ
25. Deshaun Watson CLE 24/32 176 1 1 3 -57 -33 -24 LV
MNF Tyler Huntley MIA 15/22 96 0 0 2 -60 -56 -3 TEN
26. Josh Allen BUF 16/29 180 0 0 3 -61 -65 5 BAL
27. Jalen Hurts PHI 18/30 158 1 0 6 -68 -87 19 TB
28. Jacoby Brissett NE 19/32 173 1 1 6 -147 -144 -3 SF

Kirk Cousins had -46 passing DYAR on first and second downs but 42 passing DYAR on third downs with 8.9 net yards per pass… Deshaun Watson scrambled seven times with just one first down, and also was charged with a fumble on an aborted play. He has -416 passing DYAR this year, almost -200 behind any other quarterback… Josh Allen was dead last this week with -24 DYAR on short passes (up to 15 air yards)… Jalen Hurts had five first downs and a touchdown on seven carries, mostly in short-yardage situations.

Top Five Running Backs (Total)

Rk Player Team Runs Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
MNF Kenneth Walker SEA 12 80 3 4/5 36 0 56 40 16 DET
1. Justice Hill BAL 4 18 0 6/6 78 1 50 -3 52 BUF
MNF Jahmyr Gibbs DET 14 78 2 0/0 0 0 46 46 0 SEA
2. Jeremy McNichols WAS 8 68 2 1/1 6 0 41 39 1 ARI
3. Jordan Mason SF 24 123 1 2/3 37 0 37 17 21 NE
4. Aaron Jones MIN 22 93 0 4/5 46 0 37 23 14 GB
5. Dare Ogunbowale HOU 2 7 0 4/4 47 1 36 -3 39 JAX

Justice Hill had four different receptions of at least 14 yards, with three first downs plus a touchdown… Jeremy McNichols had touchdowns of 27 and 7 yards plus a 15-yard gain on a fourth-and-1. He didn’t receive a carry in three games for the 2023 49ers and he wasn’t even in the league in 2022… Jordan Mason had two first downs receiving but only four first downs rushing (one of which was a 4-yard touchdown)… Dare Ogunbowale had a 31-yard reception on a third-and-18 and then the game-winning touchdown catch against Jacksonville.

I haven’t been doing separate Top Five lists for running backs, total and rushing, but the lists are mostly different this week so here goes…

Top Five Running Backs (Rushing)

Rk Player Team Runs Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
MNF Jahmyr Gibbs DET 14 78 2 0/0 0 0 46 46 0 SEA
MNF Kenneth Walker SEA 12 80 3 4/5 36 0 56 40 16 DET
1. Jeremy McNichols WAS 8 68 2 1/1 6 0 41 39 1 ARI
2. Kyren Williams LAR 19 94 1 4/4 10 0 22 36 -14 CHI
3. Bucky Irving TB 10 49 1 1/2 6 0 31 31 0 PHI
4. Chase Brown CIN 15 80 2 2/3 12 0 21 26 -5 CAR
5. Kareem Hunt KC 14 69 0 2/3 16 0 32 25 7 LAC

Kyren Williams converted all five of his runs with just 1-3 yards to go, including a 14-yard run on a second-and-3… In his return to Kansas City, Kareem Hunt had at least 5 yards on half of his carries.

Bottom Running Back

Rk Player Team Runs Rush
Yds
Rush
TD
Rec Rec
Yds
Rec
TD
Total
DYAR
Rush
DYAR
Rec
DYAR
Opp
1. Breece Hall NYJ 10 4 0 2/5 14 0 -50 -33 -17 DEN

Breece Hall had two carries that lost yardage, four carries for zero yards, and no carries over 3 yards. He was stuffed twice at the goal line… Zamir White also had a lousy game, with -47 rushing DYAR. He carried the ball 17 times for 50 yards and a lost fumble.

Top Five Wide Receivers or Tight Ends

Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total
DYAR
Opp
1. Jayden Reed GB 7 8 139 19.9 1 82 MIN
2. Jordan Addison MIN 3 4 72 24.0 1 54 GB
3. Nico Collins HOU 12 15 151 12.6 1 51 JAX
4. Brian Thomas JAX 6 9 86 14.3 1 49 HOU
5. Olamide Zaccheaus WAS 6 6 85 14.2 0 46 ARI

Unlike the rest of the Packers offense, Jayden Reed didn’t stuff all of his value into the second half of yesterday’s game. Reed had 42 DYAR in the first half, including a 15-yard touchdown and a 20-yard DPI, and then 40 DYAR in the second half… Jordan Addison added 20 rush DYAR for his 7-yard touchdown run… Nico Collins is the first receiver to take a big opponent adjustment hit this year, as the Jaguars’ pass defense has been pretty bad. Collins is currently second in total receiving DYAR behind the surprising Jauan Jenningsof the 49ers… Brian Thomas adds on 9 DYAR for a 13-yard carry… Olamide Zaccheaus gained first downs on all six of his receptions.

Bottom Wide Receiver or Tight End

Rk Player Team Rec Att Yds Avg TD Total
DYAR
Opp
1. Gabriel Davis JAX 2 6 -2 -1.0 0 -46 HOU

Gabriel Davis had 5 yards on a second-and-9 early on and then a 7-yard loss on second-and-10 in the fourth quarter with the Jaguars trying to mount a comeback.

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