Week 4 Quick Reads: Jayden Daniels’ Incredible Start

Jayden Daniels is having an amazing start to his career. You’ve probably seen the remarkable stats across the Internet. Here are some and here are some more. DVOA does not love the Commanders as much as EPA does, but they still rank second so far in offense trailing only the Baltimore Ravens.

Daniels is just as impressive in our individual passing stats. Daniels is currently second in passing DYAR behind only Brock Purdy. He is first among qualifying quarterbacks in DVOA, but has 17 fewer pass plays than Purdy. Here’s the current Top 10 by passing DYAR, before the Monday night doubleheader:

The question now is whether Daniels can keep this up. To answer that question, I went looking for rookies who started their career similarly. I looked at team offensive stats because that was easier and less time consuming, but I went and looked at the best rookie quarterbacks in their first four starts since 1979.

If we look at the team offensive DVOA in a rookie quarterback’s first four starts, Daniels is second behind only Brock Purdy for the 2022 49ers. There are other quarterbacks who are higher than Daniels in team passing DVOA, including Ben Roethlisberger, Dan Marino, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott. But of course, Daniels is part of Washington’s running game too.

Here’s the list of quarterbacks whose offenses had positive DVOA in their first four starts:

What stands out from this list is that nearly every quarterback on it continued to play well for his entire rookie year. Obviously, they didn’t all have great careers, but it’s hard to argue that Robert Griffin’s injuries tell us much about what will happen with Jayden Daniels. The major exception is Colt McCoy, who was surprisingly good in his first four starts for the 2010 Browns before fading and getting injured. But McCoy is really not a good comparable for Jayden Daniels, especially when it comes to the difference in resume between a third-round pick and the second overall selection and Heisman Trophy winner. (Gardner Minshew is another exception but he’s further down the list.)

The moral of the story is that there is every indication that Daniels will be able to continue at a high level. Maybe not this high a level, but a high offensive level. I think it is very unlikely that Daniels finishes his rookie year outside of the top dozen quarterbacks in the NFL.

One other note: This is the first week where there are opponent adjustments in the DYAR numbers. Those adjustments are currently at 40% of their final strength.

Quarterbacks

Here come the opponent adjustments! C.J. Stroud would be at 208 DYAR without the adjustment for Jacksonville’s poor defense this year. Jayden Daniels would be at 177 DYAR without the Arizona defensive adjustment… Jordan Love, on the other hand, would be at only 85 DYAR without the positive adjustment for facing the difficult Vikings pass defense. Love had -41 passing DYAR in the first half of this game and then 156 passing DYAR in the second half… Lamar Jackson had 126 passing DYAR before halftime and -12 passing DYAR after halftime… Dak Prescott had 101 passing DYAR before halftime and only 19 passing DYAR after halftime… Joe Flacco completed 6 of 8 passes on third downs, with two touchdowns and four other first-down conversions… Daniel Jones struggled in the red zone including a 5-yard completion on third-and-goal from the 8 and a sack on third-and-4 from the 16.

Brock Purdy is getting dinged here for two aborted plays but the 49ers did recover both, and he had two scrambles to convert on third-and-3 and third-and-4… Justin Herbert had -28 DYAR on third and fourth down, with less than 1.0 net yards per pass including two sacks… Matthew Stafford led all quarterbacks this week with 87 DYAR on passes up the middle including six first downs.

Kirk Cousins had -46 passing DYAR on first and second downs but 42 passing DYAR on third downs with 8.9 net yards per pass… Deshaun Watson scrambled seven times with just one first down, and also was charged with a fumble on an aborted play. He has -416 passing DYAR this year, almost -200 behind any other quarterback… Josh Allen was dead last this week with -24 DYAR on short passes (up to 15 air yards)… Jalen Hurts had five first downs and a touchdown on seven carries, mostly in short-yardage situations.

Top Five Running Backs (Total)

Justice Hill had four different receptions of at least 14 yards, with three first downs plus a touchdown… Jeremy McNichols had touchdowns of 27 and 7 yards plus a 15-yard gain on a fourth-and-1. He didn’t receive a carry in three games for the 2023 49ers and he wasn’t even in the league in 2022… Jordan Mason had two first downs receiving but only four first downs rushing (one of which was a 4-yard touchdown)… Dare Ogunbowale had a 31-yard reception on a third-and-18 and then the game-winning touchdown catch against Jacksonville.

I haven’t been doing separate Top Five lists for running backs, total and rushing, but the lists are mostly different this week so here goes…

Top Five Running Backs (Rushing)

Kyren Williams converted all five of his runs with just 1-3 yards to go, including a 14-yard run on a second-and-3… In his return to Kansas City, Kareem Hunt had at least 5 yards on half of his carries.

Bottom Running Back

Breece Hall had two carries that lost yardage, four carries for zero yards, and no carries over 3 yards. He was stuffed twice at the goal line… Zamir White also had a lousy game, with -47 rushing DYAR. He carried the ball 17 times for 50 yards and a lost fumble.

Top Five Wide Receivers or Tight Ends

Unlike the rest of the Packers offense, Jayden Reed didn’t stuff all of his value into the second half of yesterday’s game. Reed had 42 DYAR in the first half, including a 15-yard touchdown and a 20-yard DPI, and then 40 DYAR in the second half… Jordan Addison added 20 rush DYAR for his 7-yard touchdown run… Nico Collins is the first receiver to take a big opponent adjustment hit this year, as the Jaguars’ pass defense has been pretty bad. Collins is currently second in total receiving DYAR behind the surprising Jauan Jennings of the 49ers… Brian Thomas adds on 9 DYAR for a 13-yard carry… Olamide Zaccheaus gained first downs on all six of his receptions.

Bottom Wide Receiver or Tight End

Gabriel Davis had 5 yards on a second-and-9 early on and then a 7-yard loss on second-and-10 in the fourth quarter with the Jaguars trying to mount a comeback.