NFL Week 5 FTN Staff Bets
FTN Staff
The Minnesota Vikings remain on top of our DVOA ratings after five weeks of 2024, but the big mover this week is the defending champion (and also undefeated) Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs significantly outplayed the highly ranked New Orleans Saints on Monday night with their best game of the season, finishing with 53% DVOA compared to -28% for the Saints. That moved the Chiefs up six spots from last week and put them third behind the Vikings and the No. 2 Baltimore Ravens.
It certainly feels like the Chiefs have not played up to their record, at least until last night, and part of that is the schedule that the Chiefs have played. Kansas City has gone undefeated against the hardest schedule in the league so far by average DVOA of opponent. They have beaten the teams ranked second (Baltimore), fourth (New Orleans), 12th (Cincinnati), 13th (Atlanta), and 17th (the Los Angeles Chargers). Those ranks are a little biased because New Orleans and the Chargers walloped the Bryce Young Carolina Panthers but are getting adjusted based on the entire Carolina season, but still, it’s a really impressive schedule so far.
It gets a lot easier for Kansas City after this, as their remaining schedule ranks 28th based on current DVOA. Their only remaining opponents who currently rank in the top 10 in DVOA are San Francisco (9), Houston (7), and Buffalo (6). The Chiefs also have four games remaining against teams in the bottom four: two against Las Vegas (29) and one each against Carolina (30) and Cleveland (32).
The win-loss records on the DVOA table are certainly mixed up except for the 5-0 Vikings and Chiefs being high up. Part of that is that there are only two undefeated teams left with no winless teams, and not that many 4-1 or 1-4 teams. Part of is is also that there are a number of teams that rank among the “best X-X teams ever” after five games.
- The Baltimore Ravens are sixth among all 3-2 teams by DVOA.
- The New Orleans Saints are third among all 2-3 teams by DVOA.
- The Cincinnati Bengals are fourth among all 1-4 teams by DVOA.
(Historical tables on this are coming in an ESPN+ piece later this week.)
Another surprise might be how one-sided the two remaining 4-1 teams are. Well, part of the surprise is the very identity of one of those 4-1 teams. You would have definitely believed me if I had told you before the season that the Washington Commanders had one of the league’s worst defenses. You would not have believed me if I told you they would start 4-1 anyway! Last week, I covered some of the reasons why EPA and DVOA differ on the Commanders offense but they still rank a strong third in DVOA. The defense is currently 24th, although they climbed up six spots after holding the dismal Browns offense to just 13 points this week.
With the Houston Texans, the surprise is less that they are 4-1 but rather how they’ve gotten there. The Texans are only 21st on offense so far this season. The passing game is average (16th) and the running game has been poor (26th). But the Houston defense is third in the NFL in DVOA, equally strong against both the run and the pass.
The Vikings and the Texans are not the only teams this year to be significantly imbalanced in favor of defense. Four other teams currently rank in the top 10 for defense but the bottom 10 for offense:
- The Denver Broncos have overcome that horrible defense from the first part of last year and now rank fourth in defensive DVOA. Patrick Surtain II is an early candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. That defense has led the Broncos to a 3-2 record despite the offense ranking 25th. (Their special teams also helped, ranking second.)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have been surprisingly strong on defense, currently second behind the Vikings. Their offense ranks 24th.
- I said before the season that the Chicago Bears were likely to decline on defense because their second-half improvement from last year would not necessarily carry over. Instead, the Bears have been seventh on defense this season. They are only 26th on offense, although that moved up with Caleb Williams having his best game as a pro this week.
- Finally, the Tennessee Titans are a surprising ninth on defense but they are 27th on offense and dead last on special teams.
* * * * *
These are the FTN DVOA and DAVE ratings through five weeks of 2024. Our Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.) Opponent adjustments are currently at 50% strength.
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with current DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. DAVE is currently 65% preseason forecast and 35% actual performance for teams with five games and 70% forecast with 30% actual performance for teams with four games.
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
TOTAL DAVE |
RK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 38.1% | 1 | 11.3% | 7 | 5-0 | -1.1% | 19 | -37.1% | 1 | 2.1% | 11 |
| 2 | BAL | 34.3% | 2 | 23.5% | 1 | 3-2 | 31.4% | 1 | -4.7% | 14 | -1.7% | 23 |
| 3 | KC | 22.4% | 9 | 17.8% | 3 | 5-0 | 14.1% | 5 | -7.7% | 10 | 0.5% | 14 |
| 4 | NO | 22.3% | 3 | 9.4% | 8 | 2-3 | 9.1% | 11 | -8.7% | 8 | 4.5% | 4 |
| 5 | DET | 20.5% | 5 | 13.6% | 6 | 3-1 | 13.2% | 7 | -3.0% | 15 | 4.3% | 5 |
| 6 | BUF | 17.6% | 6 | 13.9% | 5 | 3-2 | 13.1% | 8 | -10.7% | 6 | -6.3% | 29 |
| 7 | HOU | 16.0% | 11 | 14.4% | 4 | 4-1 | -1.8% | 21 | -15.2% | 3 | 2.6% | 6 |
| 8 | SEA | 15.5% | 4 | 7.6% | 11 | 3-2 | 13.6% | 6 | -5.4% | 13 | -3.4% | 27 |
| 9 | SF | 14.3% | 7 | 18.4% | 2 | 2-3 | 10.9% | 10 | -11.2% | 5 | -7.9% | 31 |
| 10 | WAS | 12.1% | 16 | -0.3% | 15 | 4-1 | 19.0% | 3 | 9.1% | 24 | 2.3% | 10 |
| 11 | GB | 12.1% | 10 | 8.4% | 9 | 3-2 | 15.3% | 4 | -0.9% | 17 | -4.0% | 28 |
| 12 | CIN | 8.8% | 12 | 7.7% | 10 | 1-4 | 19.3% | 2 | 8.2% | 22 | -2.3% | 25 |
| 13 | ATL | 7.8% | 15 | -0.5% | 16 | 3-2 | 11.2% | 9 | 3.5% | 20 | 0.2% | 15 |
| 14 | PIT | 5.9% | 8 | -2.7% | 17 | 3-2 | -4.1% | 22 | -7.5% | 11 | 2.5% | 9 |
| 15 | TB | 5.1% | 14 | 1.0% | 13 | 3-2 | 5.2% | 13 | 1.6% | 18 | 1.5% | 12 |
| 16 | DEN | 4.0% | 18 | -5.3% | 20 | 3-2 | -14.9% | 25 | -12.8% | 4 | 6.1% | 2 |
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
TOTAL DAVE |
RK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RK |
| 17 | LAC | 0.3% | 17 | -9.4% | 26 | 2-2 | -13.7% | 24 | -15.9% | 2 | -1.8% | 24 |
| 18 | DAL | 0.3% | 19 | 6.6% | 12 | 3-2 | -1.3% | 20 | 8.9% | 23 | 10.5% | 1 |
| 19 | IND | -0.9% | 13 | -7.2% | 23 | 2-3 | 5.8% | 12 | 5.1% | 21 | -1.6% | 22 |
| 20 | CHI | -3.9% | 23 | -8.2% | 24 | 3-2 | -16.1% | 26 | -9.6% | 7 | 2.6% | 7 |
| 21 | ARI | -5.5% | 22 | -8.5% | 25 | 2-3 | 5.2% | 13 | 10.8% | 26 | 0.1% | 16 |
| 22 | NYJ | -5.8% | 20 | -0.1% | 14 | 2-3 | -9.7% | 23 | -5.4% | 12 | -1.5% | 21 |
| 23 | NYG | -7.5% | 25 | -12.7% | 29 | 2-3 | 1.9% | 17 | 3.0% | 19 | -6.4% | 30 |
| 24 | PHI | -10.3% | 21 | -3.3% | 19 | 2-2 | 4.1% | 15 | 11.2% | 27 | -3.2% | 26 |
| 25 | LAR | -17.6% | 26 | -3.2% | 18 | 1-4 | 1.1% | 18 | 18.8% | 31 | 0.1% | 17 |
| 26 | TEN | -18.6% | 24 | -9.9% | 27 | 1-3 | -17.4% | 27 | -8.6% | 9 | -9.8% | 32 |
| 27 | JAX | -21.3% | 30 | -6.4% | 22 | 1-4 | 3.0% | 16 | 23.6% | 32 | -0.8% | 19 |
| 28 | NE | -26.5% | 29 | -15.4% | 30 | 1-4 | -18.3% | 30 | 13.2% | 28 | 5.0% | 3 |
| 29 | LV | -30.6% | 27 | -15.5% | 31 | 2-3 | -17.4% | 28 | 13.8% | 29 | 0.5% | 13 |
| 30 | CAR | -34.7% | 28 | -20.1% | 32 | 1-4 | -18.2% | 29 | 16.4% | 30 | -0.2% | 18 |
| 31 | MIA | -38.6% | 31 | -6.4% | 21 | 2-3 | -28.1% | 31 | 9.7% | 25 | -0.8% | 20 |
| 32 | CLE | -39.8% | 32 | -10.4% | 28 | 1-4 | -43.7% | 32 | -1.4% | 16 | 2.5% | 8 |
