Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Last week in the DVOA commentary, I wrote about how the Detroit Lions had never finished a week at No. 1 in 45 years of DVOA ratings. They almost did it a week ago, only to have Baltimore blow out Tampa Bay on Monday night and pass them for the top spot.
This week, the Ravens were upset by the Cleveland Browns, one of the worst teams in the league so far this season. Meanwhile, the Lions destroyed the Tennessee Titans by a score of 52-14. And so, the Detroit Lions are officially No. 1 in DVOA for the first time ever.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are now the only franchise that has never been No. 1 in DVOA for a single week. Sort of, anyway. It depends on how you feel about the Browns. The new Browns have never been No. 1 or even No. 2 for a week. The old Browns were No. 1 several times.
The Lions won a wild blowout where Jared Goff had only 85 passing yards. They had a 70-yard run from Jahmyr Gibbs and then a ridiculously good performance on special teams. In fact, the Lions had the second-best special teams DVOA in a single game, ever. We’ll get to that in a bit.
Detroit is now leading DVOA by more than 13 percentage points. Special teams performance is much less consistent than offense and defense, and so we probably want to discount the fact that the Lions lead the NFL in special teams after one huge game. However, the Lions’ lead over the rest of the league in DVOA is so big that you could take out their No. 1 special teams and they would still be No. 1.
In fact, the Lions are only the ninth team in DVOA history to rank in the top five of all three phases after Week 8. That’s very good company, as six of the previous eight teams to do this went on to win the Super Bowl including last year’s Kansas City Chiefs.
| Top 5 in All Three Phases after Week 8, 1979-2024 | ||||||||||
| YEAR | TEAM | W-L | DVOA | RANK | OFF | RANK | DEF | RANK | ST | RANK |
| 1985 | CHI | 8-0 | 48.3% | 1 | 21.5% | 3 | -21.6% | 1 | 5.2% | 3 |
| 1990 | NYG | 7-0 | 44.1% | 1 | 14.9% | 4 | -22.9% | 1 | 6.3% | 1 |
| 1991 | WAS | 7-0 | 56.8% | 1 | 18.6% | 5 | -24.0% | 3 | 14.3% | 1 |
| 1996 | GB | 6-1 | 49.5% | 1 | 12.7% | 4 | -30.6% | 1 | 6.2% | 4 |
| 1999 | STL | 6-1 | 46.5% | 1 | 22.5% | 2 | -14.7% | 2 | 9.3% | 1 |
| 2007 | NE | 8-0 | 71.9% | 1 | 41.8% | 1 | -22.9% | 2 | 7.3% | 5 |
| 2022 | BUF | 6-1 | 42.3% | 1 | 17.2% | 2 | -22.7% | 2 | 2.4% | 3 |
| 2023 | KC | 6-2 | 27.9% | 4 | 15.1% | 5 | -9.9% | 5 | 2.9% | 4 |
| 2024 | DET | 6-1 | 44.8% | 1 | 16.8% | 4 | -17.2% | 3 | 10.8% | 1 |
Below the Lions, the Ravens drop nine percentage points of DVOA after falling to the Browns, but they were so far ahead of the rest of the league last week that they are still second despite the drop. The Vikings also drop significantly but stay third. The Chiefs are fourth and the Bills are fifth, with the Vikings, Chiefs, and Bills all close together. It may seem strange to have the Chiefs only fourth when they are undefeated against a difficult early schedule, but they’re just not having those dominating wins that normally indicate greatness. That’s fine, because as you can see from the table above, the Chiefs’ DVOA this year is very similar to last year when they started the season 6-2. They were good enough to win the Super Bowl with that team, and they’re good enough to win the Super Bowl with this team. Kansas City is still (barely) our Super Bowl favorite at 19.9%, followed by Detroit at 19.8%, Baltimore at 12.2%, and Buffalo at 12.0%.
Are the Chiefs one of the worst undefeated teams ever? No, they are not. The Chiefs do have a below-average DVOA compared to all 7-0 teams since 1979 but they are not among the 10 worst 7-0 teams by DVOA.
We had a few big risers below the top five teams in DVOA. Philadelphia was the biggest, moving up six spots to 12th after beating Cincinnati. Pittsburgh is up four spots to 10th and Atlanta is up three spots to 13th. On the other side, the Bengals dropped from 12th to 18th and the Seahawks dropped from 11th to 16th.
The Best Special Teams Games Ever
I mentioned above that the Lions had one of the best special teams games in DVOA history. I thought it would be fun to look back at the top 10 special teams games by DVOA since 1979. Now, because this is based on DVOA, these ratings do not include the things that aren’t included in DVOA because they are “non-predictive plays.” You won’t find games with blocked punts and field goals, and we don’t consider fakes or onside kicks. At some point, my plan is to create a “non-predictive” version of special teams that does include these things specifically for looking back at past performance like this, but I haven’t done that yet.
So with that in mind, here are your 10 best special teams games by DVOA:
10. 2007 Bears vs. Broncos Week 12 (50.1%)
Devin Hester had an 88-yard kick return touchdown and a 75-yard punt return touchdown, but the total value is hurt a little bit because he also muffed two punts (one lost to the Broncos). The Bears also blocked a Todd Sauerbrun punt, although that’s not included in DVOA, and forced a fumble on a Broncos kick return.
9. 2019 Colts vs. Panthers Week 16 (51.4%)
This is the game where Nyheim Hines had two punt returns for touchdowns, 84 and 71 yards, plus a third return that went 40 yards. Rigoberto Sanchez had three punts, two of which went over 50 yards and third was downed at the 4. All 10 kickoffs in this game (by both teams) were touchbacks.
8. 2011 49ers vs. Seahawks Week 1 (51.7%)
Ted Ginn Jr. had a 102-yard kick return touchdown and a 55-yard punt return touchdown, plus another punt return of 31 yards. Andy Lee averaged 59.6 gross yards on five punts, only two of which were returned for any yardage. David Akers went 4-for-4 on field goals, but they were all short.
7. 2002 Saints vs. Redskins Week 6 (52.3%)
Michael Lewis had a 90-yard kick return touchdown and an 83-yard punt return touchdown. Redskins went backwards 3 yards on their only punt return (by Jacquez Green).
6. 1997 Chargers vs. Bengals Week 10 (52.5%)
Eric Metcalf had punt return touchdowns for 85 and 67 yards. Darren Bennett punted 10 times, with five of them going at least 50 yards, and the Bengals didn’t have a return longer than 10 yards.
5. 2010 Seahawks vs. Chargers Week 3 (52.6%)
Leon Washington returned two Nate Kaeding kickoffs for touchdowns of 101 and 99 yards in this game, while the Seahawks stripped Darren Sproles of the ball on a second-quarter kick return. Golden Tate also had a 31-yard punt return.
4. 2017 Ravens vs. Bears Week 6 (52.7%)
The Ravens got a 96-yard kick return touchdown from Bobby Rainey and a 77-yard punt return touchdown from Michael Campanaro. Sam Koch averaged 55.0 gross yards on seven punts. Justin Tucker went 3-for-3 on field goals including a 50-yarder.
3. 2000 Ravens vs. Jets Week 17 (53.2%)
Jermaine Lewis had two punt return touchdowns, 89 and 54 yards. Corey Harris had a 40-yard kick return late in the game. This one would be higher if Matt Stover had not missed a 45-yard field goal.
2. 2024 Lions vs. Titans Week 8 (57.2%)
Kalif Raymond had a 90-yard punt return touchdown with additional returns of 64, 24, and 10 yards. Although there was only one returnable kickoff by Nick Folk, Khalil Dorsey brought it back for 72 yards. Jack Fox averaged 61.0 gross yards on five punts and the Lions forced a fumble by Titans punt returner Jha’Quan Jackson, though the Titans recovered.
1. 2007 Texans vs. Jaguars Week 17 (58.1%)
Andre’ Davis had two kick returns for touchdowns, 104 and 97 yards. Jacoby Jones had four different punt returns for at least 10 yards apiece. Houston kick coverage tackled Chad Owens behind the 20 on three different returns. Matt Turk only punted twice but one landed at the 17 and the other at the 7.
If the Lions Were Good, The Titans Must Be Bad
Yes, the Titans special teams are very, very bad. Special teams DVOA works a bit differently for each team, so the Titans didn’t have the second-worst DVOA in a single game. They had the 10th-worst DVOA in a single game. However, the Titans special teams are much negative for the season than the Lions or Cowboys special teams have been positive.
Right now, the Titans have earned -28.2 points of estimated field position on net punting value. That would be the seventh-lowest punting season in our database even if the season was over tomorrow. If we want to look at the Titans compared to only other teams that played seven games, the Titans have the fourth-lowest special teams DVOA ever.
| Worst Special Teams DVOA Through 7 Games, 1979-2024 | |||
| YEAR | TEAM | W-L | DVOA |
| 2010 | SD | 2-5 | -21.1% |
| 2008 | MIN | 3-4 | -17.6% |
| 2013 | WAS | 2-5 | -16.7% |
| 2024 | TEN | 1-6 | -15.3% |
| 1999 | CIN | 1-6 | -15.1% |
| 1995 | PHI | 4-3 | -14.2% |
| 1984 | NYG | 4-3 | -13.9% |
| 1981 | TB | 4-3 | -13.6% |
| 1996 | ARI | 3-4 | -13.4% |
| 1994 | HOIL | 1-6 | -13.2% |
| 1997 | STL | 2-5 | -13.1% |
| 2006 | ARI | 1-6 | -12.9% |
You may not realize it, but the Titans actually have a top-10 defense right now. They are 1-6 because of these horrible special teams and the 30th-ranked offense.
Fully Updated DVOA Table
These are the FTN DVOA and DAVE ratings through eight weeks of 2024. Our Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single play and compares a team’s performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.) Opponent adjustments are currently at 80% strength.
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted for performance indoors and consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
DAVE is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with current DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. The projections are adjusted for a few quarterback changes as well as injuries and trades. DAVE is currently 45% preseason forecast and 55% actual performance for teams with eight games and 50% forecast with 50% actual performance for teams with seven games.
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
TOTAL DAVE |
RK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 44.8% | 2 | 26.1% | 1 | 6-1 | 16.8% | 4 | -17.2% | 3 | 10.8% | 1 |
| 2 | BAL | 31.4% | 1 | 25.7% | 2 | 5-3 | 36.0% | 1 | 2.7% | 18 | -1.9% | 25 |
| 3 | MIN | 28.8% | 3 | 11.9% | 8 | 5-2 | 4.0% | 16 | -23.1% | 1 | 1.6% | 11 |
| 4 | KC | 28.1% | 4 | 22.5% | 3 | 7-0 | 10.7% | 9 | -16.8% | 4 | 0.7% | 14 |
| 5 | BUF | 28.1% | 5 | 21.4% | 4 | 6-2 | 20.2% | 2 | -12.6% | 7 | -4.7% | 28 |
| 6 | SF | 19.8% | 9 | 18.5% | 5 | 4-4 | 12.1% | 7 | -13.7% | 6 | -6.0% | 29 |
| 7 | HOU | 19.0% | 7 | 16.7% | 6 | 6-2 | -3.7% | 20 | -20.0% | 2 | 2.7% | 9 |
| 8 | GB | 17.8% | 8 | 12.7% | 7 | 6-2 | 15.8% | 5 | -4.4% | 12 | -2.4% | 26 |
| 9 | WAS | 16.6% | 6 | 7.9% | 9 | 6-2 | 19.3% | 3 | 6.2% | 24 | 3.5% | 7 |
| 10 | PIT | 12.0% | 14 | 3.2% | 13 | 6-2 | -3.6% | 19 | -8.3% | 11 | 7.3% | 3 |
| 11 | DEN | 12.0% | 10 | 3.3% | 12 | 5-3 | -8.7% | 24 | -15.1% | 5 | 5.6% | 4 |
| 12 | PHI | 9.5% | 18 | 5.0% | 10 | 5-2 | 8.5% | 11 | -0.1% | 13 | 0.9% | 13 |
| 13 | ATL | 8.0% | 16 | 2.1% | 16 | 5-3 | 13.4% | 6 | 4.6% | 21 | -0.9% | 19 |
| 14 | LAC | 8.0% | 15 | -2.5% | 18 | 4-3 | -2.1% | 18 | -10.1% | 8 | 0.0% | 15 |
| 15 | TB | 7.2% | 13 | 3.1% | 15 | 4-4 | 11.7% | 8 | 2.1% | 15 | -2.4% | 27 |
| 16 | SEA | 5.7% | 11 | 3.2% | 14 | 4-4 | 5.0% | 15 | 0.6% | 14 | 1.3% | 12 |
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
TOTAL DAVE |
RK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RK |
| 17 | CHI | 1.5% | 17 | -3.8% | 19 | 4-3 | -9.8% | 25 | -8.4% | 10 | 2.9% | 8 |
| 18 | CIN | 0.6% | 12 | 3.9% | 11 | 3-5 | 8.6% | 10 | 7.1% | 25 | -0.9% | 18 |
| 19 | ARI | -0.5% | 20 | -5.1% | 22 | 4-4 | 7.4% | 13 | 7.7% | 26 | -0.2% | 16 |
| 20 | IND | -2.3% | 19 | -6.3% | 25 | 4-4 | -0.7% | 17 | 3.6% | 19 | 1.9% | 10 |
| 21 | LAR | -2.5% | 22 | 1.0% | 17 | 3-4 | 8.5% | 12 | 9.7% | 28 | -1.2% | 22 |
| 22 | NO | -7.3% | 21 | -5.1% | 21 | 2-6 | -6.9% | 22 | 4.7% | 22 | 4.2% | 5 |
| 23 | JAX | -12.9% | 26 | -5.6% | 23 | 2-6 | 5.5% | 14 | 22.5% | 32 | 4.1% | 6 |
| 24 | NYJ | -14.4% | 25 | -6.0% | 24 | 2-6 | -4.1% | 21 | 3.8% | 20 | -6.6% | 30 |
| 25 | NYG | -17.4% | 24 | -16.4% | 27 | 2-6 | -8.5% | 23 | 2.3% | 16 | -6.6% | 31 |
| 26 | DAL | -17.6% | 23 | -4.5% | 20 | 3-4 | -12.4% | 26 | 13.5% | 29 | 8.3% | 2 |
| 27 | LV | -28.9% | 28 | -20.1% | 30 | 2-6 | -22.1% | 27 | 5.8% | 23 | -0.9% | 20 |
| 28 | TEN | -29.6% | 27 | -18.9% | 28 | 1-6 | -23.2% | 30 | -8.9% | 9 | -15.3% | 32 |
| 29 | MIA | -32.8% | 29 | -11.0% | 26 | 2-5 | -22.9% | 29 | 9.0% | 27 | -0.9% | 21 |
| 30 | CLE | -36.4% | 31 | -18.9% | 29 | 2-6 | -32.6% | 32 | 2.5% | 17 | -1.4% | 23 |
| 31 | NE | -41.9% | 30 | -28.5% | 31 | 2-6 | -24.1% | 31 | 17.5% | 30 | -0.3% | 17 |
| 32 | CAR | -45.3% | 32 | -29.5% | 32 | 1-7 | -22.8% | 28 | 20.7% | 31 | -1.7% | 24 |
