The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (8/4)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a peek.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals betting breakdown

Phillies (-102), Nationals (-116)
Total: 9.0 runs
Chase Anderson (R) vs. Paolo Espino (R)

Three things to know

I truly thought Chase Anderson was out of baseball. He sports an ugly 5.55 xFIP this season in 44 innings.
Among qualified hitters, Bryce Harper one of two in baseball sporting a .300 average, .400 on-base percentage, and .500 slugging percentage.
Washington may have traded away Trea Turner, but they are fourth in team wOBA in the last seven days (.359!).

Best bets: The OVER. This line seems way too low.

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Orioles (+225), Yankees (-275)
Total: 9.0 runs
Matt Harvey (R) vs. Jameson Taillon (R)

Three things to know

Baltimore has been smoking hot at the plate recently. The Orioles rank fourth in team wOBA over the last week.
Can the new acquisitions for the pinstripes fix things? Let’s hope so, as they have been a middling offense all year.
Is this version of Matt Harvey for real? He has a 2.45 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in the last month.

Best bets: The Orioles got pounded by the Yankees Tuesday, and I expect another monster run-scoring effort here.

Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays betting breakdown

Guardians (+176), Blue Jays (-210)
Total: 9.5 runs
J.C. Mejía (R) vs. Steven Matz (L)

Three things to know

More fireworks Tuesday, as George Springer and Teoscar Hernández smacked long balls. Can they keep it up?
The Jays are an offense that’s a bit scary – they are torrid at the dish with a .207 ISO mark.
J.C. Mejía’s pitch-to-contact approach (21.5% strikeout rate, 9.2% swinging-strike rate) could be awfully similar to Zach Plesac, who was pounded Tuesday.

Best bets: Another same-game parlay, and find yourself a home run prop or two here.

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New York Mets at Miami Marlins betting breakdown

Mets (-154), Marlins (+130)
Total: 9.0 runs
Carlos Carrasco (R) vs. Zach Thompson (R)

Three things to know

Carlos Carrasco makes his second start of the year, and he was solid in his first, allowing a single run in four frames.
The Mets are fading in the NL East – Francisco Lindor and Jacob deGrom cannot return fast enough.
Miami is still struggling at the plate. They rank fifth worst in team WOBA in the last seven days and second worst on the year.

Best bets: The UNDER. These offenses stink big time.

Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers betting breakdown

Red Sox (-148), Tigers (+126)
Total: 9.0 runs
Eduardo Rodríguez (L) vs. Casey Mize (R)

Three things to know

Detroit has been cooking at the dish – is this the real Tigers offense?
Strangely, the Red Sox are the struggling offense. They only have a .292 wOBA in the last week. They were limited to only two tallies yesterday.
Traditional metrics suggest a struggle (5.46 ERA) but Eduardo Rodríguez (3.50 FIP) has been better than suggested.

Best bets: The UNDER. Eduardo Rodríguez has been solid, and Boston is struggling.

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Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox betting breakdown

Royals (+235), White Sox (-290)
Total: 9.0 runs
Carlos Hernández (R) vs. Lucas Giolito (R)

Three things to know

The Royals have been in trouble this year, and their offense shows it – their 24.4% strikeout rate in the last week shows they are whiffing aplenty.
The White Sox have struggled at the dish recently, logging a .308 wOBA in the last week. Eloy Jiménez returned from a brief absence Tuesday, can he spark them offensively?
Lucas Giolito is flexing those muscles – in the last month, he sports a 1.71 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 26.1 IP.

Best bets: This feels like a blood bath in waiting – I’d find a lot of White Sox bets to enjoy this evening.

Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown

Braves (-118), Cardinals (+104)
Total: 9.0 runs
Drew Smyly (L) vs. J.A. Happ (L)

Three things to know

I am truly confused on what the Cardinals are doing – why trade for poorly performing arms like Jon Lester and J.A. Happ?
The Birds have been awful at the dish recently – their strikeout rate is in the top-10 worst in the league, and they’ve recorded a .291 wOBA.
Tuesday was ugly, and I would expect more of the same – the Braves’ .324 wOBA without Ronald Acuña Jr. is impressive.

Best bets: Another same-gamer here – the Cardinals are just a bad team and I’d expect Happ to get tagged like Lester did.

Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies betting breakdown

Cubs (+152), Rockies (-180)
Total: 11.0 runs
Alec Mills (R) vs. Jon Gray (R)

Three things to know

Colorado’s 27.6% strikeout rate in the last week is the second-worst mark in the league.
Who are Kris Bryant, Javier Báez and Anthony Rizzo? The Cubs have cooked at the plate with a .313 wOBA recently.
Surprisingly, Jon Gray was not moved at the trade deadline, but he’s been solid this year with a 3.62 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.

Best bets: Let’s hope Mills is better than Davies was Tuesday, but this was ugly. Bet the OVER.

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San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks betting breakdown

Giants (-184), Diamondbacks (+154)
Total: 9.0 runs
Kevin Gausman (R) vs. Zac Gallen (R)

Three things to know

Is something wrong with Kevin Gausman? He has been rocked for a 5.11 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in the last month.
On the other side of the bump, Zac Gallen has not found his form. His marks in the last 30 days – 5.74 ERA, 1.28 WHIP.
Both teams sport strikeout rates greater than 24.0% in the last week.

Best bets: With Ketel Marte back, I’m going to go with a shocker here and bet the over. I think the runs are a plenty.

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers betting breakdown

Astros (+188), Dodgers (-225)
Total: 9.0 runs
Jake Odorizzi (R) vs. Max Scherzer (R)

Three things to know

Mookie Betts, second baseman – has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it? He made his third appearance there Tuesday.
Houston has been whiffing at an 18.9% clip in the last week, but the Dodgers have been tough, too, with a 20.9% mark over the same span.
Both teams have been scorching at the plate, ranking in the top-10 in wOBA, slugging percentage, and ISO.

Best bets: I expect Dodgers Stadium to be electric with Mad Max’s debut – bet a same-game parlay here.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)