Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2021 college football season is finally here as the end of August nears. Opening weekend is quickly approaching, and we have a full slate of games every weekend until the end of the year. Plan for each Saturday accordingly.
Betting-wise, there’s not a Power-5 division more open than the Pac-12 South. This division will bring a lot of fun and value for bettors this fall. We must act now to get the best plays possible.
(Follow along with our entire college football conference betting preview series here.)
We’ll look at that and more for each Pac-12 South contender. From USC to Arizona, let’s breakdown each Pac-12 South team and project how their season will play out.
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USC Trojans odds – PAC 12 division winner
(+180, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The 2021 USC Trojans look great from the 10,000-feet view. On paper, any team coming off a 5-1 campaign with an established Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback should project extremely well into the next year. But USC has a more problematic profile upon closer review.
There aren’t a lot of positive traits of the offense outside of Kedon Slovis’ efficiency. The rushing game failed to average 100 yards a game despite averaging over 30 carries. The unit lacked explosiveness even in the passing game because Slovis is more of a short and intermediate thrower than effective downfield presence.
The defense is also troublesome. They allowed almost 65% completion rate and over 153 yards on the ground per game. It’s possible USC wins the Pac-12 South, but it will be because of significant improvement from within or massive disappointment across the conference last like year.
Utah Utes odds – PAC 12 division winner
(+230, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Utah is another Pac-12 team with an unusual amount of returning talent in 2021. This is great news for those wanting value for a divisional play. Kyle Whittingham continues to get the most out of his roster in Utah and has brought a slew of talented transfers in to help bridge their efforts forward.
The offense is getting a boost with former Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer stepping in for Jake Bentley. The dual-threat presence will help a rebuilding offensive line, the lone question mark on the roster. There’s enough talent at the playmaking positions between rusher Micah Bernard, transfers Theo Howard and T.J. Pledger and returning slot Britain Covey to have faith this unit will be towards the more consistent bunch.
Most importantly, the defense returns as a massive asset. Almost the entire unit is back from 2020, and the group allowed under 58% completion rate and under four yards per carry on the ground. They can rival an elite defense if the turnovers rise and get a little stingier against the pass.
Utah has my bet for the best pick to win the Pac-12 South.
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Arizona State Sun Devils odds – PAC 12 division winner
(+240, DraftKings Sportsbook)
This is a confusing line for me. While I love Jayden Daniels’ impact and talent level on the Sun Devils’ offense, Herm Edwards hasn’t built anything resembling a powerhouse offense or particularly strong defense yet. We love that 84% of their production is back from 2020, but this was a .500 team through four games for good reason.
Major leaps are needed for the Sun Devils to meet these expectations. Daniels must complete well over 60% of his passes, and the running game must again be as dominant as they were in last year’s limited sample. But can this offense sustain the ridiculous 6.4-yard average on the ground for the majority of the season to offset a benign passing game?
The defense is a bigger issue altogether despite boasting nine upperclassmen. Maybe the small handful of transfers will help, but most of the depth is made up of freshmen. I don’t see the upside with this roster to justify taking these odds when the competition is so thick.
UCLA Bruins odds – PAC 12 division winner
(+600, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chip Kelly’s UCLA Bruins are the longshot we love. Things looked bleak until last year when the offense broke out as seemingly the entire unit saw a bit improvement. All of a sudden, quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson became a prolific dual-threat and running backs Demetric Felton and Brittain Brown were unstoppable.
The Bruins still only went 3-4 because of the passing defense’s issues. There’s hope for improvement as the entire defense is made up of graduate transfers and seniors. Only one junior, edge-rusher Carl Jones, is a junior starter.
Consistency is needed for this now developed roster to fulfill what we saw in doses last year. With a tough schedule that features each of the top Pac-12 teams and a home game against LSU, Kelly can either set himself apart as a redeemed former college football hero or fall to a has-been.
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Colorado Buffaloes odds – Pac 12 division winner
(+1600, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The most intriguing young roster in the Pac-12 South belongs to Colorado. The backfield consists of sophomore transfer quarterback J.T. Shrout and freshmen Brendon Lewis and Drew Carter. Whoever earns the starting gig will benefit from star rusher Jarek Broussard and a cast of young, athletic pass catchers.
However, there’s so much youth on the offense there’s reason to believe they won’t be ready for all of the returning veteran teams. While Karl Dorrell was able to go 4-2 last year, some of that was certainly fool’s gold. The defense allowed more yards per game and the offense gave up more turnovers per-game than what the defense forced.
This team’s record will regress even if the roster is better overall. Have patience, Buffaloes fans.
Arizona Wildcats odds – Pac 12 division winner
(+4000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Out with Kevin Sumlin and Grant Gunnell, in with Jedd Fisch and a number of recruits and transfers. This is going to be a rough transition year for Fisch because he inherited so little from Sumlin. The offense has no notable playmakersm and the defense has just one in senior linebacker Anthony Pandy.
Fisch should take this season to develop potential starters for 2022 and find depth. It’s hard to find much light when a team is so far behind their peers, but the Wildcats must start winning recruiting battles within their own state before they can earn any divisional respect.
