MSG Week 16 DFS Breakdown

Welcome to The Breakdown for Week 16, a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.

For those that are new, here is a basic guide. The “CORE” plays are for a DFS player that is building a single entry or three-max GPP lineup. The “core” plays can be used in cash, but I always send out a Sunday a.m. “cash core” update (I put it at the bottom of this article) to narrow down the player pool even further. Most optimal cash lineups will be centered around opportunity opened up by injury, so no sense of spending hours tinkering. Reserve your cash game entries with the plan of modifying on Sunday morning.

I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 16.

#FTNDaily

All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.

“GPP only” plays that are not in BOLD are for MME only. BOLD CORE plays are the players I will have the most exposure to.

CHI -7.5. O/U: 47
CHI: 27.5 | JAX: 19.5

Pace and playcalling 

We have some very interesting pace and playcalling splits here. They could be the thesis of why you need to look closer at pass rate (versus looking at overall). 

Chicago has passed at just a 49% neutral rate lately (Weeks 10-15), down from 62% in Weeks 5-9. Their third-highest pass rate is a result of passing at a 75% rate when down at least 7 (first). Jacksonville has been up 7-plus points for only 19 plays this season (last, with the Jets in second at 40). That tells us they will not pass much once ahead or even while in a close game. 

Jacksonville has played from behind so much (first in overall pass rate), but the Jags would actually prefer to hand it to James Robinson (19th in neutral pass rate). The Bears stay at a consistent league-average pace in most situations. The Jaguars will speed things up along with their pass rate, but they are 19th in pace when the game is close.

The Bears have scored 30 or more points in three consecutive games, and 31 PPG over their last four. They averaged 28 rush attempts (157 yards per game) over that span, compared to 21 over their first 10 (73 per game). 

Bears

We got unlucky with Mitchell Trubisky last week, with David Montgomery scoring two TDs and rushing 32 times for 146 yards. I did not expect him to shatter his season-high in rush attempts (21), but Cordarrelle Patterson played only six snaps after hurting his knee, which led to the massive workload for Monty. That led Trubisky to a season-low 21 pass attempts, which simply isn’t enough for DFS, even at 9.6 yards per attempt (202-1-1). Montgomery and gamescript are the biggest risks for Trubisky in this matchup, with the Jags allowing QBs to complete 70.97% of their passes for 8.1 yards per pass attempt (32nd), and 24.4 FPPG on DK (31st). If the Bears pass 38-40 times again (he hasn’t been over 34 in 3-weeks), Trubisky will end up as a QB1 for the fourth time in eight (full) games. 

Montgomery has seen his DK price rise to $7.7k, the highest of his career after 32.1 fantasy points, giving him a 28.78 fantasy point average in his last four on 7.11 yards per carry and 34 receiving yards per game. Those are Christian McCaffrey-like numbers so as hard as it is to see a $7.7k Monty, it’s justifiable against a Jaguars defense that just allowed 169 total yards to Baltimore RBs on only 27 touches and 30 fantasy points per game on DK this season. 

Allen Robinson revenge game alert. It is also the best matchup on the board against this terrible, depleted Jacksonville secondary. There’s not much analysis needed here — he is the chalk, and good chalk as my second-ranked WR on the slate. I have outlined the streak of ceiling games this secondary has yielded so will save you from it again, but it has continued over the last two weeks against A.J. Brown (7-112-1) and Marquise Brown (6-98-0). The only thing that has spared them from being the worst in terms of fantasy points allowed is always playing from behind and getting pounded by RBs, which is the only risk I see for Robinson here. If he ends up with a similar line to last week (4-83-0), the faders will have their day, but I find that hard to project. 

Cole Kmet busted for us last week, but he did play 100% of the team snaps. I know snaps don’t pay the bills, but it shows the research was correct. TE is a volatile position for everyone not named Travis Kelce. Jacksonville is a great matchup, allowing over 14 fantasy points a game after the 5-66-1 line to Mark Andrews last week.

Jaguars

The Jaguars announced Mike Glennon will return as starter. Jacksonville has managed 12 points per game in the last two, so I am not sure how much it matters. 

James Robinson remains the No. 1 RB in terms of opportunity share, averaging 20.6 touches a game. He suffered a high-ankle sprain, and his status is in doubt. Head coach Doug Marrone said Robinson will be rested in practice Wednesday, but the running back still expects to suit up Sunday against the Bears (per John Shipley of SI.com). High-ankle sprains usually take a while, so I would not be surprised to see him miss, and I don’t think he can be trusted as normal. Devine Ozigbo would split work with Dare Ogunbowale if he were to miss, but this is the No. 5 run defense DVAO against the No. 16 offensive line, so I am not excited about any of them. 

Folks keep grasping to 2019 D.J. Chark (when he averaged 67.2 yards per game), something we have seen just two times this season, but the arrival of Laviska Shenault (17 targets over the last two) is a real thing. Keelan Cole has seen his target share rise from 8% to 14% this season, which, along with the struggles at QB, is enough to call Chark a very shaky WR3 (at best) in GPPs. I have to take the loss on Chark (53 yards per game this year), who I have in a ton of best balls and posted his season yardage prop of 975.5 yards.

Core plays: Allen Robinson, David Montgomery

GPP only: Chicago DST 

ATL +10.5. O/U: 54
ATL: 20.5 | KC: 33.5

Falcons

Matt Ryan surprised the hell out of me last week by erupting for 356 yards and 3 TDs. I will not be chasing that as he goes out on the road where he has averaged 8.5 FP in his last two outings. KC, as usual, is tough at home, allowing 21 PPG in Arrowhead. 

Teams want to attack KC on the ground (149.3 total yards per game to RBs), and head coach Raheem Morris has declared Ito Smith the starting running back with Todd Gurley looking 100 years old with his knee issues. The problem is that Gurley himself was only functional as a touchdown-dependent RB2 at his apex this season. That also does not mean we won’t see Gurley, either.

Russell Gage has 15-plus FP on DK in his last three games without Julio Jones in the lineup. Both he and Calvin Ridley have a tough matchup on paper, but both should get there with volume, because the Atlanta rushing game is so bad (3.73 RB YPC)

Ridley continued his career season, snagging 10-of-14 targets last week for 163 yards and a touchdown. Ridley now has three consecutive 100-yard games and has at least 90 yards or a touchdown in every game Julio Jones has missed this season. The Chiefs are third in the league in points allowed to opposing WR1 (12.9), but Ridley’s opportunity and production are so high that is a locked-in WR1 option.

Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes enters as the no-brainer QB1 against the Falcons. The Dirty Birds have allowed the second-most passing yards, the most 20-yard passing plays, the most fantasy points to QBs and the sixth-most passing touchdowns. He is the chalk, and he is expensive, but we still need to pay up and stack him on one of our three-max teams. On DK, as you can see below, it is very difficult (actually mathematically impossible) to stack up Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Ridley. In the past, when min.-price RBs were $3k, it would have been possible, but with them being $4k, it doesn’t work. 

That means you need to mix in Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman or both, rotating Hill and Kelce out. Hill has a questionable tag, but I think it’s more maintenance. He should play and is projected as the clear No. 1 WR on the slate. Another way to approach it would be to throw Le’Veon Bell (Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out) into the stack, with the thought being you are purchasing all the KC TDs (likely 5 or more). Atlanta has remained strong against the run, which is a kiss of death to the secondary, encouraging opponents to pass at the third-highest rate against (eighth-fewest fantasy points to RBs). 

Note: As always, FanDuel makes it much easier to stack expensive teams. I normally go QB + 2, but Mahomes can throw for 400-plus as easily as any QB I have ever seen, so having three pass catchers makes a lot of sense if you are playing for the 400-yard, 3-TD performance. 

To make matters worse for ATL, CB Darqueze Dennard is OUT, so Kendall Sheffield and A.J. Terrell will play outside against Hill (43% of snaps on the outside), Watkins (44% slot) and Demarcus Robinson. Sheffield was a high draft pick that has raw skills, but he has been one of the worst CBs in the league, allowing over 17 FP in coverage over his last three games. He also allows 2 FP per target, which is a number we love to target. Atlanta has allowed 15.3 FPPG to the LWR (32nd). 

Looking at Sharp Football’s direction target share grid, we can see Hill has dominated Mahomes’ deep targets to the left side, where Terrell resides. 

Core plays: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage

GPP only: Sammy Watkins, Ito Smith, Le’Veon Bell, Mecole Hardman 

(See the Sunday update for how I attack KC — with them being so expensive it will be tricky.)

CIN +8. O/U: 46.5
CIN: 19.25 | HOU: 27.25

Pace and playcalling 

The Bengals shocked the football world by beating the Steelers on national TV. Now they go on the road, where they have not won a game since Week 4 of 2018 (!). That said, they are 3-4-1 ATS this season on the road and 13-10-1 ATS since 2018, while losing 21 of 24 games. 

Houston has lost three straight, but somehow came in as 8-point favorites, which has since been bet down to +7. 

The Cincinnati D ranks 17th in yards and points allowed per drive and has held four of five opponents to 20 points or less, with the one exception being the turnover-fueled game against Dallas. 

Houston continues to struggle early (3.3 points per game in the first quarter), and then comes on late, usually once the game is decided. 

Bengals

With Tyler Boyd OUT, Tee Higgins and A.J. Green will have a path to higher usage. Of course, when you are tied to a QB that threw for 89 yards (not a misprint) in a win against Pittsburgh, “higher” is a relative term. Still, the matchup for the talented rookie against Keion Crossen is so good, that I may take a flier on Higgins at $4.7k on DK. The Bengals played with the lead all game, which is not something we are likely to see again. He saw 6 of Ryan Finley’s 13 pass attempts, which on a percentage basis is 45%. It looks like Brandon Allen will get the start anyway, who connected with Higgins for 5 receptions in three consecutive starts before being injured.

Giovani Bernard saw 26 touches in Pittsburgh, just a week after being benched for fumbling early. We love this matchup for backs, allowing 32.5 fantasy points per game to backs. Even if we chop that in half it is a solid play at his low price. He is not catching passes like I would like, and is not ultra-efficient, but the combo of (projected) volume and a great matchup (5.4 YPC allowed to RBs) and 18 rush TDs is too good to pass up at $4.8k.

Texans

Deshaun Watson is likely my most used QB this season, and he has served us well. He has been ultra-consistent, only failing to reach 20 fantasy points in the terrible weather game in Cleveland and at Chicago, when he just ran into TD variance, having a rush TD called back and making the mistake of throwing it to Jordan Akins who was wide-ass open in the end zone. At home, he has been flawless since Bill O’Brien was removed (as seen on our NFL Splits app). 

The Bengals are top-10 in fantasy points allowed to QBs, but it is a facade. They have allowed 50 passing players of 20-plus yards (the fourth-most) and have the No. 27 pass DVOA. It’s an odd defense to handicap, as they should struggle (dead last in pressure rate), yet don’t. Watson will kill any defense that doesn’t pressure the QB, completing a ridiculous 87.8% of his passes when kept clean (first), compared to 39.5% when under pressure (21st). 

Watson has a 10-game steak with at least 24 rush yards, averaging 33.6 rush yards per game over that span. 

David Johnson came out of nowhere with a season-high 11 targets for 106 yards. Prior to Sunday, Johnson had not seen more than four targets in a game this season. I don’t know what to say about this — if he is the new passing option to replace Will Fuller, it’s hard not to be into him at $6.1k and moderate (9-11%) ownership. Cincinnati is 30th, allowing 4.88 RB yards per carry, but the defense has been odd as well. The Bengals have allowed the fourth-fewest TDs on the ground this season, right with the Buccaneers, Steelers and Bears. They also rank in the top-five in RB targets and receptions allowed (3.9 RB catches per game). 

Brandin Cooks is set up well when analyzing the Cincinnati heat map. They have been exposed on those deep passes, primarily to the right side, where Cooks has lined up 43% of snaps. That said, he moves around quite a bit so it could easily be Chad Hansen, who has lined up on the right side 34% of snaps. Hansen has been an under the radar stud since Fuller has gone out, with his price and ownership staying low despite WR21 over those three games. He only got 3 targets last week, but he played 91% of snaps and remained in the Will Fuller role. He is risky, but aren’t most $4.4k WRs?

Keke Coutee has been the most consistent of all the pass catchers since Fuller went down, with games of 8-141-0, 3-24-1, and 5-53-1. He just missed a second TD when time expired, reaching out for the goal line after breaking a tackle, so I would not hold the fumble against him. Watson looks to Coutee inside the red zone, seeing 8 targets to Cooks’ two inside the 20 over their last five games. He is my preferred connection with Watson.

Core plays: Deshaun Watson, Giovani Bernard, David Johnson, Brandin Cooks 

GPP only: Chad Hansen, Tee Higgins 

CLE -9.5. O/U: 47.5
CLE: 29.5 | NYJ: 19

Browns

Baker Mayfield has come on of late, with four straight top-12 finishes and two in the top four, with at least 2 TD passes in all four games. The matchup can’t be any better, with the Jets, 29th in pass DVOA, one of three teams that have allowed at least 30 TD passes this season (Jacksonville and Dallas). The only risk is Cleveland running away with this game and Mayfield only getting 20-22 pass attempts, something we have seen five times this season. He is still affordable at $6.1k and I think worth taking a risk on given his low projected ownership. If New York does manage to score a little and keep this close for four quarters, Mayfield should end up as a QB1 once again.

Jets CB Javelin Guidry has played well since getting the job two weeks ago, but he is OUT, which is not ideal for a secondary that allows the league’s highest completion rate against at over 70%. That sets up Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins (60-plus yards in four of five) very well as one of the better stackable duos. These two have combined to see 64 targets over those four games as Mayfield has heated up (16 combined targets per game). Landry is the alpha, but is also up to his highest price point of the season, giving Higgins ($4.8k on DK and 5% owned) a slight edge for me, as he is also projected to be less than half of Landry’s ownership. Higgins is fifth in yards per target and 16th in yards per catch, getting over 2.31 fantasy points per target (sixth). 

Per our Derek Brown: 

Among 41 quarterbacks with 10 or more deep attempts, Baker Mayfield ranks 7th in deep passer rating (111.5) and 3rd in deep adjusted completion percentage (55.3%). Over the last three weeks, Kevin Stefanski has unleashed Mayfield and opened up the offense. In that span, Mayfield ranks seventh in deep passing percentage (12.5%). When tossing long, Mayfield’s favorite target is Rashard Higgins, who leads the team in deep targets (9) since Odell Beckham’s injury. The Jets secondary has been picked apart all season long. New York ranks 27th in DVOA against deep passing. Look for Mayfield to continue the revival tour this week.

I talk about the Jets strange rush D almost every week — they are solid up front, fourth in adjusted line yards allowed after finishing last year in the top spot. They just get exposed by being such a bad team, and always trailing, and thus facing the 19th-highest rush rate against. Despite facing the fifth-most RB touches per game, they are only 15th in fantasy points allowed to the position, only allowing one 100-yard rusher this season (Melvin Gordon in Week 4). 

Nick Chubb is my guy who seems to land in the low-owned, one-off section almost weekly. He is a lock for 18-plus touches in every game, and likely 20 or more in this one with big-time TD equity. 

The Jets secondary is so bad and commits so many holding/PI penalties, allowing so many yards (392 per game), and red-zone trips (4 per game), it will be hard for Chubb to end up in the range of 15-plus fantasy points as a floor. I am not terribly excited about the play, but on a slate without Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones and Josh Jacobs, there simply aren’t too many backs projected for his high usage, in a game his team is heavily favored. I prefer the low-owned passing stack here while the public gravitates to Chubb in GPPs, but he is going to get his 70-plus yards and likely a score. On the rosters we fade Chubb, the hope is Kareem Hunt trolls him enough at low ownership. I think Hunt is interesting to me in those large-field GPPs, as he could end up getting a lot of work late if this gets out of hand. Either way, he is good for 10-plus+ touches and has out-targeted Chubb 13-5 over their last three games. 

Jets 

As I have all season, I will be fading the J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS. 

Core plays: Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield/Rashard Higgins/Jarvis Landry stack, Cleveland DST/Nick Chubb stack (I will have one passing stack and one Chubb team in three-max)

GPP only: Austin Hooper, Kareem Hunt 

IND -1.5. O/U: 44.5
IND: 22.5 | PIT: 22

Colts 

If you are a fan of 13 FP,  let me introduce you to Philip Rivers in a brutal matchup against a pissed off PIT defense. Rivers has been very consistent, but he has no upside in a league that is pumping out 30+ FP games by QBs at a higher frequency than ever before. No thanks to Phil or any of his pass-catchers. 

Jonathan Taylor continued his surge, getting 20 more touches for 95 total yards and a TD. Over his last four-game, he is up with the BIG dogs in FP per game (Cook, Henry, Chubb, Monty), and should be leaned on heavily in this matchup as well after getting 20+ touches in 3-of-4.  Looking at his opponents, Taylor has had a soft schedule, with games against HOU (2x), LV, and TEN. I think he can grind out another 70+ yards on 20+ touches, add a couple of catches, and (maybe) scores a TD, but at 15% ownership and his new high price, I don’t see myself going here on a 3-Max. He is one of those, “don’t love the matchup for cash, don’t love the ownership and price for GPP”, so is left in “no man’s land” for me.  I will let other people chase Gio’s big game from last week.

Colts tackle, Anthony Castonzo is OUT. 

Steelers

Diontae Johnson is the guy I am targeting for PITT. My dude is just a target machine, seeing 10-11-16-13-12-7 (the game he was benched), and 13 targets last week. Rock Ya-Sin and the left side of that INDY secondary has been giving it up, allowing the third most FP on that side of the field per game. Dionte moves all over the formation, playing about 40% of his snaps on that side. 

Chase Claypool also operates on that side for 40%+ of his routes and has seen (by far) the most deep targets on that side from Ben. We went after this same thing last week against CIN, and Ben missed a WIDE OPEN Chase for a deep TD so the research was correct. He is too expensive, just $400 from DJ, so best for large field GPPs. 

NYG @ BAL 

+10.5. O/U: 44.5
NYG: NA | BAL: NA

Pace and playcalling 

The Giants keep ending up in nasty, low-scoring games. They have gone 11-3 to the under, while Baltimore has the No. 4 scoring D (eighth in DVOA). 

Baltimore plays at the slowest neutral pace and runs at the highest rate. New York is bottom-12 in pace, which have led to their games averaging under 40 points a game, the only team in the league that can claim this. 

Giants

Daniel Jones (hamstring, ankle) is questionable but is “pointing in the direction” of returning Sunday, per Art Stapleton on Twitter. Either way, I don’t think we need to worry about the Giants passing “offense,” which trails only the Jets in points per drive. 

Wayne Gallman has predictably fallen back to earth after the TD streak and now may get Devonta Freeman back this week. I have no interest in these guys or the Giants WR group against the Ravens (or anyone). The same goes for Evan Engram, who has displayed no upside in this offense this season. 

Ravens

Lamar Jackson is hot, QB1 over his last three games at 31.65 fantasy points per game. This is a more difficult matchup than Dallas, Cleveland and Jacksonville, but it is not so tough that he can’t post another 30 spot. What makes the fade easier is his price has spiked, and his ownership will still be high (third behind Patirck Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, per our DFS ownership projections). What we can count on with the Giants is they will be prepared and will play hard — this new coaching staff has done a good job, considering late-season collapses and drama was a regular event for the Giants over the past few seasons. 

J.K. Dobbins has averaged 13 touches over his last three, compared to 8.6 for Gus Edwards. Dobbins also holds a 12-6 edge in red-zone touches and has scored in four straight games he has played. The Giants are not a great rush D. They have allowed the ninth-most FP to RBs and are middle of the pack (15th) in rush DVOA. He will be around 10%, and his price is at its peak for the season, which is enough for me to fade on three-max and single entry/cash. 

Mark Andrews has come along with Lamar in his surge up the fantasy ranks. He has a gaudy 31.5% red-zone target share, which has produced 7 TDs, making him the best hook-up with Lamar. The Giants are league average against TEs, but just got lit up by the Cleveland group for a combined 8-83-1. I will have a few Baltimore stacks in GPPs I multi-enter, one with both Andrews and Marquise Brown, and one with just Lamar and Andrews. 

Brown has also emerged with Lamar. After a four-game stretch where he saw just 16 targets, Brown has 29 targets over this last four, with TDs in three of those games. Again, though, the schedule has been great for the Ravens, and if you remove the scores you are left with a low-volume WR averaging 4.25 receptions per game. 

Core plays: Baltimore DST

GPP only: J.K. Dobbins, Lamar Jackson/Mark Andrews stack, Jackson/Andrews/Marquise Brown stack

CAR +1.5. O/U: 44.5
CAR: NA | WAS: NA

Panthers

Washington is not a great matchup for fantasy. The Football Team is third against RBs, seventh against QBs, second against WRs and 14th against TEs. Teddy Bridgewater is not good enough to overcome a matchup like this, he is running more than we thought he would come into the season, but we can’t count on Teddy’s legs for DFS. 

Christian McCaffrey is going to miss another game, as is tackle Russell Okung, Carolina went with more Rodney Smith last week, putting Mike Davis in an RBBC and off our radar, 

D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel are three players I love from a skillset standpoint, but when they are all healthy it is a tough situation to trust in a three-max or single entry. Samuel is my preference for the price, ownership and potential rushing upside, but none of them are high on my weekly rankings. 

Football Team

The Ron Rivera revenge game has a lot of uncertainty with Alex Smith questionable and Dwayne Haskins going to strip clubs without a mask. Panthers will likely be without their best defender in DE Brian Burns and CB Tony Pride. Smith logged a full practice Friday, so I assume the veteran will start at QB. The problem (besides the offense not being very good generally ) is Terry McLaurin, who is doubtful after not practicing all week. 

Cam Sims is intriguing, assuming McLaurin is OUT. The 6-foot-4 WR is the clear WR2 on this offense and should be in line for a big workload at just $3.3k on DK. I would expect we see more Steven Sims also, but Cam will be the guy to fill the “McLaurin role” as the full-time WR1. 

Antonio Gibson is also questionable, so this game requires a later update for him, J.D. McKissic and Peyton Barber in a plus matchup, especially with Burns OUT.

Logan Thomas is the one known commodity that we can count on after seeing a career-high 15 targets (13-101-0). Thomas trails only Travis Kelce and Darren Waller in targets over his last five games and now gets the bump with the target share leader likely out. 

Core plays: Logan Thomas, Washington DST

GPP only: Cam Sims, Carolina DST, Curtis Samuel 

DEN +3. O/U: 48.5
DEN: 23 | LAC: 26.5

Broncos

Phillip Lindsay is OUT, and Royce Freeman is questionable putting Melvin Gordon in the mix in a revenge game. He has played in three games without Lindsay this season, all tough matchups in terms of adjusted line yards allowed and has averaged 19 touches for 17 fantasy points. The matchup is good—the Chargers are 26th in RB YPC and adjusted line yards allowed. They also allow 7.5 targets per game to RBs and Gordon has averaged 3.5 targets in his last two (Lindsay 2.5). 

The Broncos passing “attack” is a mess. Noah Fant is the only player in the group I have my eye on against a Chargers squad that has allowed 10 TDs to tight ends (third-most). After posting 8-68-1 on a season-high 11 targets a week ago, he is set up well again against a Chargers squad he put up 7-47-0 on 9 targets in Week 8. 

Chargers

Justin Herbert will be like all of us, waiting for news on his No. 1 WR after Keenan Allen missed practice for most of the week before logging a limited session on Christmas. This will likely be a pain in our ass even after lock, with this being a late game. He also could do what he did in Vegas, when he played 36% snaps and caught one pass. 

The matchup is great, since the Broncos have lost Bryce Callahan, A.J. Bouye, Essang Bassey and likely Nate Hairston (questionable). Mike Williams, Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson (3-61-0) could be GPP darts or solid value plays, we just need clarity on Allen. 

Austin Ekeler is a core play regardless of Allen but could be a lock-button play if Allen’s 30% target share is removed. 

Hunter Henry is out, and this offense throws to the TE at a 25.5% rate (fifth). That gives us a $2.5k TE to use, which by now you know how much l love. Anthony Lynn said Donald Parham will start at tight end (per Gilbert Manzano of The Orange County Register). Stephen Anderson has one catch on two targets this season and Gabe Nabers, a blocking TE, has 6 targets. That puts Parham in a great spot as one of these small-school producers with a good profile who simply needs snaps and targets (see Robert Tonyan’s Week 1 writeup). The 6-8, 240-pound TE posted 85-1,319-9 his final season at Stenson, and then four TDs in five games in the XFL. He has hauled in 5 of 13 targets this season, but two went for scores, so I will have a good amount The Donald. 

Core plays: Donald Parham, Austin Ekeler

GPP only: Justin Herbert, Mike Williams 

LAR +1.5. O/U: 47.5
LAR: 23.5 | SEA: 24

Pace and playcalling 

Seattle continues to surge on the defensive side, which has led to a six-game streak to the UNDER. Removing the Jets blowout, the offense has only scored 20.4 PPG over their last five games. 

Seattle has allowed a league-low 11.7 points per game over their last three and has moved into the top-10 in scoring allowed at home this season. 

Seattle is 28th in neutral pace over the last six games while passing at a 54% rate. That is depressing after they opened the season at the eighth-fastest pace and a 62% neutral rate over the first five.

Los Angeles has passed at a 63% neutral rate in the last five (fourth) and play at a league-average pace. 

Teams have passed on Seattle at the league’s highest rate (65.2%) and sixth-highest against the Rams, thanks to these teams playing with a lead for the second- (Seattle) and sixth-most plays. 

Rams

Seattle has allowed just 4.7 YPA over their last three games, though those have been against the Jets, Football Team, and a Colt McCoy-led Giants team. They haven’t faced anyone notable since Kyler Murray in his injury game and Jared Goff, who threw for 302 yards but had all three TDs poached by his RBs. 

With Cam Akers sidelined (high ankle sprain), the Rams could lean more on Goff, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. After the loss to the Jets, I think they will bounce back, and they are projected to be under 10% on DK. Woods and Kupp have combined for 9 of Goff’s 20 TDs, in addition to Woods scoring twice on the ground. They also combine for nearly 50% of Goff’s targets so make one of the easier QB-WR-WR stacks. 

Woods is one of the hotter players in the league, coming in as the WR5 over his last five games. He has a 31% target share over that span, averaging 8 receptions per game. 

Both he and Kupp will operate out of the slot (Kupp averages 4.2 more slot snaps per game), the most vulnerable spot of the Seattle D, averaging 7 receptions a game and 16.3 fantasy points per game.

Using our FTN Splits app to look at Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown without Akers in the lineup (Cam played in every game since Week 7), you get a backfield committee with Henderson handling roughly two-thirds of the touches (15.5 to 9.3). Brown is still more trusted in pass protection, but that does not mean he is going to be heavily targeted with the Rams targeting RBs at the second-lowest rate this season. Henderson is just as likely to get 2-3 targets and the majority of the rush attempts. The goal line is a crapshoot, with Akers handling 19 of 20 goal-line touches over their last four games, but I again lean toward Henderson, as I like to bet on talent. He is only $4.5k on DK and $5.6k and is projected for very low ownership against the tough Seattle rush D. 

I don’t mess around with Tyler Higbee (4-67-1 on 5 targets) or Gerald Everett when both are active. Even last week when he played more snaps, Everett still managed 4 targets. 

Seahawks

Russell Wilson has averaged 5.6 YPA over his last three (29th). He posted a 248-0-2 line against these Rams in Week 10 and struggled downfield. Looking at Sharp Football’s heat map, you can see how great the Rams have been all season on deep passes. 

We all know Wilson is a ridiculous talent, but I won’t be paying a premium for him against the Rams defense (No. 4 pass DVOA), while Seattle is noticeably looking to run more and play slower. Wilson has been inside of the top-12 scorers at quarterback in just one of his past seven games, and that was against the Jets. That includes a QB21 finish and a season-low 9.9 points on the road against the Rams in Week 10.

Chris Carson showed us his floor last week, with 15 rush attempts for 63 yards without a TD, only the second time he has failed to score when playing more than 20% of snaps (9 total TDs). He missed the Rams game in Week 10, and could certainly get it done with TDs this week, but this does not feel like a ceiling game, much like last week in Washington (the Football Team has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points; the Rams are third). 

DK Metcalf, like Carson, enters every game with extremely high touchdown equity and probability (tied for sixth in goal-line targets, fifth in TDs), which along with 1.93 deep targets per game (third) make him appealing even in tough matchups, but he is not going to sniff my single-entry or three-max teams with Los Angeles doing so well as a team against deep passes (first) and his price so high. 

Looking at the heat map and where Tyler Lockett does his damage, this matchup sets up better for him. I project a similar 5- or 6-reception, 60- to 70-yard performance, which we will need a TD to be happy. At his prices I am not on him in three-max. 

Core plays: Robert Woods

GPP only: Seattle DST (15 sacks, 4 INTs, and at least 9 fantasy points in their last four), Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles DST, Jared Goff/Woods/Cooper Kupp stack (can run back with Tyler Lockett) 

PHI -2.5. O/U: 50
PHI: 26 | DALI: 24.5

Pace and playcalling 

With Jalen Hurts at QB, Philadelphia has played at the fourth-fastest neutral pace and second-fastest when down by at least 7 (72% pass rate). 

Dallas was the league’s fastest team with Dak Prescott, but the Cowboys are closer to league average with Andy Dalton at QB. Still, this is the best game in terms of overall pace. 

Dallas has passed at a 56% rate over their last three with Dalton and have run the 10th-fewest plays. A lot of their overall ranking in pass rate and pace is still being driven by the big weeks Prescott produced. 

Dallas home games have gone 5-2 to the OVER, averaging 15 PPG over the implied total (first). 

Dallas has allowed 34.2 rush attempts (third-most) and 32.4 rush attempts per game (first) this season. Philly has averaged 30 rush attempts per game (last three) and 31.5 in Hurts’ two starts. 

Eagles

When you write up 10-14 games a week with 90-plus players, it is impossible to get them all right, so I normally don’t apologize, but with Jalen Hurts, I whiffed twice, and last week it was a 40-fantasy-point game, which really hurt. Lamar Jackson was my No. 1, followed by Kyler Murray, and they got 38 and 30 fantasy points, respectively, so the whiff didn’t prevent us from cashing, but Hurts was significantly less expensive and thus I took the loss.

Now Hurts (9.5 rush attempt per game) gets the best matchup of his young career, and we need to jump on after a significant price and ownership spike, which is not the way to do this DFS thing. Again, sometimes you swing and miss. Dallas seems to miss assignments, allowing outside contain to collapse as often as any defense. has already been torched on the ground by Jackson (94 yards and a TD) and Murray (74 yards and a TD). They are 32nd in adjusted line yards, 26th in open-field yards and 29th in second-level yards, which have all translated to explosive plays (16 rushes allowed of 20-plus yards, last). Dallas has also allowed the most first downs via the rush, as well as percent of total yards allowed (42.18% of all yards allowed by Dallas are via the rush). 

A big bonus for Hurts this week is the absence of Leighton Vander Esch, who is PFF’s top-graded pass rusher from the LB position this season. Xavier Woods, also one of the best pass-rushers from his safety position, in addition to DT Antwaun Woods is out. 

All the same analysis applies to Miles Sanders in terms of Dallas giving up big plays and lots of yards to RBs. They allow 4.92 RB yards per carry this season, which sets up well against Philadelphia (5.0 RB yards per carry, second). Sanders has 18 touches in both of Hurts’ starts and has received seven of the nine RB targets, but the Eagles have targeted their RBs at 13.6% over those two games (30th). 

Picking WRs to stack up with Hurts is a disaster. Jalen Reagor, Alshon Jeffery, Greg Ward, Quez Watkins, Travis Fulgham, Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz all caught at least 2 passes last week, but no one topped 5. 

Goedert has four catches in each game with Hurts and leads the team with 14 targets from the rookie, but Jeffery and Ward have scored the TDs, with Ward getting in the box twice on just 15 receiving yards last week. To make things even more volatile, Fulgham didn’t do anything all game and then came on in the fourth quarter to catch both of his targets for 30 yards. 

Reagor was forced out of the game last week with an ankle injury and has practiced (limited). He is expected to play but it is one more element to make this situation a mess for DFS. 

Cowboys

Andy Dalton has hovered in the range of 13-18 fantasy points, with a respectable 2 TD passes in three straight. That’s not going to get it done in DFS with so many QBs going over 30 fantasy points — last week, six QBs topped 30 points. 

Philadelphia is second in adjusted sack and fifth in QB pressure rate, so despite getting lit up by Murray and even Taysom Hill through the air, I am not sure that the “Red Statue” will be able to do that from the pocket. 

Darius Slay has practiced in full — after being banged up versus Seattle and Green Bay and then missing last week in Arizona, he is expected back, which is big, considering both Avonte Maddux and Rodney McLeod are on IR and Kevon Seymour is OUT. 

Slay will likely be assigned to Amari Cooper as one of the few CBs that still shadows an opponent’s No. 1. That said, he will not travel in the slot, where Cooper has run 39.8% of his routes over the last four weeks and received 10 of his 25 targets (24% of his receptions have come from the slot). 

Philadelphia has not allowed much production to the right WR or the slot this season, but the Eagles have allowed big production on the left side of their pass coverage (13.3 fantasy points per game, third). That puts Michael Gallup (7.5 targets per game, last four) in a good spot as a value WR to run back with Hurts. He was forced to leave the game last week with a hip pointer but has practiced in full in all sessions. 

CeeDee Lamb is one of my favorite players coming into the league this year, so always have him on my radar, especially for his props. He has 12 games with at least 4 catches, and nine with at least 5. 

Ezekiel Elliott should be back, but after the Tony Pollard show last week (132 yards and 2 TDs), you have to assume this is a full-blown RBBC and a fade for me against the second-best run defense (RB yards per carry). 

Dalton Schultz has cooled off but is playing full-time snaps and scored a TD last week, giving all these players more volatility week to week now that they are tied to Dalton (I miss Dak). 

Core plays: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia DST

GPP only: Miles Sanders, Michael Gallup, Dallas Goedert 

Top Stacks: 

KC w/ Tyreek & Kelce (duh) – Marvin Hall – Cam Sims – GIO – HARDMAN – Parnham can all help you fill out this expensive stack. Sammy Watkins is also a no brainer on FD in this stack. 

PHI (Goedert my guy as always)

CHI 

Sneaky Stack: Chargers w/ Gordon and Fant 

CASH/CORE PLAYS

Core (FD): Hurts – Ek – D. Johnson – ARob  – Tee H – Watkins – Kelce 

Core (DK):  Mahomes – Gordon – Monty – ARob – Tee H – Marvin Hall – Parnham 

Defenses: Panthers (DK/FD), Ravens (FD) 

Players I have a lot of NOT in the CORE: 

Bob Woods 

D. JOHNSON (PIT) – Killed me to take him out of the CORE, just a pricing issue with KC costing so much 

Mike Williams 

Watson (You know by now I always have a Watson/Coutee stack, bring it back w/ Gio & Tee. I have Watson-Coutee-Cooks and another with Hansen. You can use David Johnson with Watson as well)

Miles Sanders – Home run hitter against a fly ball pitcher 

Dobbins  

Underweight – Ridley (3 straight weeks, this did not go well last week), Chubb (Just a price thing), Lev Bell, A. Gibson, Henderson, Seahawks, Taylor 

Low(er) owned one-offs: Logan Thomas, Claypool, Kareem Hunt, Austin Hooper, GIO, Lamar/Andrews stack