MSG Week 12 DFS Breakdown

Welcome to the Week 12 DFS breakdown. Hope you all had a Happy Thanksgiving. It has been a crazy week for me, adding the extra article for Thanksgiving, traveling up to my sister’s house (about a 2.5-hour drive), closing a big deal for FTN Data, among all the other things I deal with throughout a normal week at FTN.

I have zero complaints — it was a great week — but it has put me a little behind. With that in mind, I will be making a good number of updates Saturday afternoon and again Sunday morning, as usual.

For those who are new, here is a basic guide. The “CORE” plays are for a DFS player that is building a single entry or three-max GPP lineup. The “core” plays can be used in cash, but I always send out a Sunday a.m. “cash core” update (I put it at the bottom of this article) to narrow down the player pool even further. Most optimal cash lineups will be centered around opportunity opened up by injury, so no sense of spending hours tinkering. Reserve your cash game entries with the plan of modifying on Sunday morning.

I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 12.

#FTNDaily

All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.

“GPP only” plays that are not in BOLD are for MME only. BOLD CORE plays are the players I will have the most exposure to.

AZ -2.5. O/U: 49.5
AZ: 25.5 | NE: 23.5

Pace and playcalling 

Arizona has the fantasy-friendly combo of pace (first in neutral pace, first in no-huddle) and efficiency, ranking in the top-nine in PPG (28.7), and points/yards per drive. They had scored at least 30 in five straight before throwing up the 21-point stinker in Seattle. 

Arizona’s pace creates a high-play volume, which has the Cardinals sixth in plays per game and seventh in plays allowed per game. 

New England is on the opposite end of the pace spectrum. With Tom Brady, they were always in the top-three in pace, but this 2020 version has them 20th in neutral pace. If they get a lead, they are going to sit on the ball and run. When they are ahead by at least 7 points, they pass at a 35% rate (T-30th) and play at the second-slowest pace. 

With New England’s tendencies, we want Arizona to get a lead and get the Patriots passing. Even when New England is down by a TD or more, they pass at the third-lowest rate (54%) and play at the fourth-slowest pace. This has their opponents running the fewest plays per game, which makes this a matchup of strength vs. strength in terms of play-volume. 

The slow pace has led to New England games averaging a combined 44.7 PPG. At home, it has been worse, with games averaging 38.4 PPG (1-4 to the UNDER). They give up so few plays their fantasy points allowed are just league average. 

Why this matters is because New England is terrible on a per-play basis, down with Atlanta and Jacksonville at 6.2 yards per play (30th), and 8.4 YPA (32nd). Atlanta, Jacksonville and New England are also the only three teams that allow 8 yards per attempt. The Hoodie is the mastermind, and we are finding out the slow pace is more about hiding the defense than it is Cam Newton and offense. Last week was the MOST pass attempts they have allowed this season (37), which yielded 344-2, in addition to the 36 rush yards and a score. Arizona plays at such a fast pace, runs so many plays, they are the most likely candidate to buck the trend. 

Both teams are in the top-eight in rush percentage, with New England third at 50.7%. They both run at a top-seven rate on first down and are both top-three in red-zone rushes. 

New England is also first (by a large margin) in rushing TD rate (65%), while Arizona is seventh. New England pushes its opponents into the highest rush rate again, so If you like running plays, this is your game. 

Cardinals

Seeing New England with the 32nd-ranked defensive DVOA is something. I have explained the Football Outsiders metric many times in the past, but in case you are new to the Breakdown, here is a brief explanation, the parts in quotes are taken from FO: 

“DVOA is a method or formula that adjusts for ‘quality of opponents,’ the situation, among many other factors, and compares ‘every single play…to a league-average baseline.’” 

Again, this is just a brief explanation. I hope to develop a similar metric one day with our own FTN Data, stay tuned.

Kyler Murray should have no issue with New England for the reasons outlined above, assuming Arizona doesn’t try to protect his shoulder by limiting runs/hits. New England plays a lot of man coverage and has the second-highest pressure rate, which has led to QBs scrambling. They allowed 17-91-1 in their last two games against Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson, 10-23-1 to Josh Allen, 5-39-0 to Russell Wilson and 8-28-0 to Patrick Mahomes. Unfortunately, Murray rushing a lot is a big “if” at his ultra-high price, especially after seeing him rush for a season-low 15 yards on 5 carries in Seattle. Prior to that game, he had a four-game streak of at least 60 yards (6 rush TDs in six games before the injury). Murray logged a limited practice Thanksgiving and should be fine to play. He feels like a GPP-only play with the injury, ultra-high price and New England’s ability to pull their opponents into ugly games in Foxboro. Murray has been great on the road (26.2 fantasy points per game), but that is still 8.2 below his home average.

It was just one game, but Kenyan Drake posted 4-31-0 on 5 targets in Seattle. Prior to that, he was a non-factor, seeing 7 targets in his previous seven games. He is down to $5.4k on DK and should have very low ownership, so any passing work could make him very interesting. If Arizona can control the game, and the team does want to limit Murray’s rushing work, Drake could see another healthy workload. He has handled 27 of Arizona’s 37 RB rushes since missing Week 9, and has six games with at least 16 rush attempts (all 5 of his rush TDs have been on the road, where he has averaged 17 touches per game).

DeAndre Hopkins is set up to see a lot of Stephon Gilmore, who returned last week to hold Brandin Cooks 1-43-0 on 1 target in coverage (73.9% of snaps). He and Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella and KeeSean Johnson are the only healthy WRs on the roster with both Larry Fitzgerald and Trent Sherfield on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Hopkins is first in routes run, fourth in targets per game (9.6), first in receiving yards and third in receptions, so he can always get there with heavy-volume and or a score (24.3% red-zone target share, but only 4 TDs, one being the Hail Mary). Still, this is not the week to pay up for him in three-max with Gilmore and Bill Belichick to deal with, but I will get a Murray/Hopkins stack where I submit multiple entries. 

Kirk is the opposite of Hopkins — not enough volume (51st in targets per game), topping 60 yards in only three times. He has gotten it done with big plays and TDs (6 TDs). New England is sixth in 20-yard pass plays allowed. With Fitzgerald out (5.7 targets per game), both Kirk and Chase Edmonds should see a bump in target share, making Kirk my preferred hook-up on your Murray GPP stacks. 

Edmonds has played 72 snaps in his last two games, just 5 fewer than Drake. He ran 24 routes to Drake’s 14 and would be the RB to own if NE gets a lead. His 4.2 targets per game are seventh among all RBs, averaging 3.6 receptions and 29.7 rec yards p/g, even lining up in the slot on 10% of his snaps. The Cards run four-WR sets on 21% of plays, which could get Edmonds playing even more WR. Isabella has played 77% of his limited snaps inside (29% snap share). He hasn’t topped 4 targets in any of his 25 career games.

Maxx Williams has seen his snap share trend up since coming back from an extended absence (49%-53%-57%) but has still run fewer routes than Dan Arnold. He is TD dependent, but that is the deal with cheap TEs. 

Patriots

Arizona’s defense has been strong outside of Phoenix, allowing the fourth-fewest points per game, compared to 27.8 at home (eighth-most). I think the split is scheduling-based, with them getting games with the Jets-Football Team-49ers-Cowboys-Panthers outside of their trip to Seattle.

Cam Newton is in play for his rushing upside against a Cardinals defense that has been exploited by rushing QBs. Arizona likes to blitz and has allowed big rushing production to QBs. In their last four games, they have allowed an average of 7.5-49.75-0 to Russell Wilson (twice), Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen. Even after getting shut down last week on the ground, Newton is second in QB rush attempts per game (9.2), and more importantly first in red-zone carries per game (2.9). Newton replaced the rushing production last week with work through the air, passing for 365 yards in Houston. He did this one other time, back in Week 2, and then followed it with four games of no more than 175 passing yards, making him one of the most unpredictable players this season. 

Check out his home/road splits, via FTN Data and our FTN Splits tool:

The New England RB situation will be different this week, with Rex Burkhead OUT and Sony Michel likely returning to go along with Damien Harris and James White. Neither Harris nor Michel will be the third-down or passing-down back, putting White back in our lives in PPR. He makes sense as a run-back flex option to Murray, as we will need Arizona to score and get the Patriots out of their heavy rush tendencies. New England targets backs at a 31.6% rate, one of only two teams over 30% (New Orleans is the other). Last week, White and Burkhead combined for 12 targets, the fourth game where Patriots backs RBs saw at least 10 targets. Like all the New England backs, Newton crushes their upside by taking all the goal-line work (tied with Derrick Henry for third-most goal-line carries). 

Damiere Byrd trolled all of us Jakobi Meyers backers last week, posting a 6-132-1 line that we had foreseen for Meyers. Julian Edelman looks like he won’t be back this week, so I will be going back to Meyers with the public hopping off. Looking at where he runs his routes and has success, Meyers should be able to do a Tyler Lockett impression and exploit the middle of this Arizona defense (118.0 passer rating, worst of any sector of the field). Over his last four weeks, Meyers has seen 9 of 24 targets in that area of the field, and 18 of 24 within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage. Byrd has seen 16 targets over that span, and 8 have been 15-plus yards down the field, where Arizona has been very stingy. As with the RBs, TDs are tough to come by with Newton taking all the work in the red zone — Byrd and Meyers have have one TD between the two of them this season (Byrd’s last week). They also took a hit with N’Keal Harry returning in Week 10 — when you are in a rushing offense, there are only so many targets to go around.

Core plays: N/A 

GPP only: Kenyan Drake, Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk, James White, Cam Newton, Jakobi Meyers, DeAndre Hopkins

CAR +4.5. O/U: NA
CAR: NA | MIN: NA

Pace and playcalling 

Carolina is the fifth-, Minnesota the seventh-slowest team, which has this game grading out as the slowest game on the slate. That doesn’t mean there is no fantasy value, because this game features three players in the top-12 of our DFS ownership projections.

These teams are 28th and 30th (Minnesota) in plays per game. With Minnesota running on 53% of plays (neutral), and Carolina encouraging their opponents to run, so this could be a whole lot of Dalvin Cook and not much else. We have seen what happens if they control a game — Kirk Cousins has attempted fewer than 27 passes in six games, hitting a floor of 14 pass attempts, which almost seems impossible in the year 2020. 

Minnesota is one of two teams remaining that have gone to the OVER in all five home games (Detroit is the other), with their games going +13.9 points per game OVER the total. 

Carolina shut out Detroit last week, but I am tossing that game out. It was just one of those weird outlier games that won’t really help us to analyze. They allowed 27, 25, 33 and 46 points in their four games prior.

Panthers

Teddy Bridgewater is “back to the way he was before the injury,” Matt Rhule said, per the Associated Press’ Steve Reed. As for ?Christian McCaffrey?, “I’m pessimistic that he’ll play, but he’s done enough this week to earn the right to have a chance,” Rhule said via the team’s assistant director of digital/broadcasting Bill Voth.

Mike Davis has a sneaky good matchup against an overrated Vikings rush D. They allowed 26-163-1 to the Cowboys backs (2-11-1 to Tony Pollard in the passing game). Davis has run into a tough stretch with games against Atlanta (x2), Tampa, Chicago and New Orleans, prior to the plus matchup with Detroit, so I think his demise is a bit overblown. All those teams are in the top-10 in run defense DVOA, with the latter three being first, second and third. After the game last week, Minnesota has dropped to 30th in adjusted line yards allowed, and they also give up 7.2 RB targets per game. 

Lots of folks talk about Davis’ targets being down, but in seven games with Bridgewater IN and McCaffrey OUT, Davis has averaged 5.7 targets per game, 8.0 on the road in the same split (20.53 DK PPG). 

D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel (71.6% slot rate, last three games) are all players I love talentwise, but they have become a headache for DFS, especially with Samuel’s emergence. Looking at his production since Week 8 (four games), you can see he is performing as a WR1, seeing 7.25 targets a game after being under 5 for his first six games. With all their values being more equitable (Samuel played only 3 fewer snaps than Anderson over the last two), he is my preference among the three simply for the price. He has one of the week’s best matchups against Jeff Gladney in the slot — Minnesota has allowed 16.7 fantasy points per game to slot WRs. He has also averaged 3 rush attempts per game with Bridgewater at QB. 

Jeff Ratcliffe has all three of these WRs in the top-six in his WR/CB matchup tool, so I won’t be shocked to see Moore or Anderson break out. Kyle Murray’s model also has Robby popping, projected as the No. 1 WR of the week at 18 FP due to his matchup with Cameron Dantzler and Kris Boyd (Minnesota allows 42 fantasy points per game to WRs on DK). 

Vikings

Justin Jefferson is so good (84.8 receiving yards per game, sixth-most) that he has masked the low volume, but he does have four of his last six games with only 3 receptions. In between those, he went off for 9-166-2 and 8-135-0. With Adam Thielen on the Reserve/COVID-19 list, Jefferson should see enough volume to support his higher price tag ($6.3k/$7k). With Cook being the most popular player in our ownership projection model, Jefferson is only projected to be 15% on DraftKings which is very reasonable considering the spot with Thielen and Irv Smith out. Donte Jackson, who is not great but is the best Carolina has, is OUT after not practicing all week, making this a dream matchup against a zone defense that has allowed the fourth-most 20-yard pass plays. Jefferson leads the league with 17 such completions. 

Jefferson moves around a lot and has played 30% of his snaps inside over his last three games, despite Chad Beebe playing slot for his 30% snap share. With Thielen out, that may force Jefferson to stay outside this week and bring Olabisi Johnson back in our lives. 

Dalvin Cook (28.7 fantasy points per game), this season’s Christian McCaffrey (30.7 in 2019), lands in another spot that will make even the biggest contrarian uncomfortable. We have him as the highest-owned player on DK, with Carolina allowing 4.58 adjusted line yards and 4.76 RB yards per carry (28th). Since his one-game absence, he has been a workhorse, racking up 30, 22, 30 and 27 rush attempts. We have also seen an uptick in targets — after 2.75 per game in his first four, he is averaging 3.5 in his last four. That’s nothing to celebrate, but when you are adding to his 22-30 carries, it matters. He is averaging 4.3 red-zone touches per game, but even more impressive is the 1.5 goal-line carries he gets (most). That has led to a TD in every game except the Bears, multiple scores in four. 

For all the publicity Carolina gets for RB production, they have allowed ceiling games to Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Drew Brees and Justin Herbert. Kirk Cousins will be an afterthought with Cook and Jefferson absorbing so much ownership. If Carolina can get them into another shootout, Cousins will perform (Carolina is 24th in pressure rate and blitzes at the fourth-lowest rate), ranking fourth in clean-pocket competition rate (Carolina allows a 67.90% completion rate). Cousins has doubled his output in those home shootouts, averaging 24.34 FPPG on 277 yards and 2.8 TDs per game (12.31 FPPG on the road). The problem he will face this week is losing Thielen and still being expected to hit his ceiling. 

Kyle Rudolph makes another viable play with Smith doubtful and Thielen OUT. Like Cousins, he is not going to get any ownership with the spotlight on Cook and Jefferson. Even with Smith playing in two of his last three, he has 3.3 rec and 46 yards a game. At $2.8k and no ownership, he is in my TE player pool. 

Core plays: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Mike Davis, Kyle Rudolph 

GPP only: Teddy Bridgwater/Dalvin Cook/Robby Anderson/Curtis Samuel/Justin Jefferson game stack, Bridgewater/Cook/D.J. Moore/Samuel/Jefferson stack, Kirk Cousins/Jefferson/Rudolph/Davis/Samuel game stack 

KC -3.5. O/U: 55.5
KC: 30 | TB: 26.5

Pace and playcalling 

The game of the day features the current GOAT facing the future GOAT. Kansas City is first in scoring at 32.1 PPG after going on a torrid streak against inferior opponents, posting 43, 35, 33 and 35 points against the Jets, Panthers, Raiders and Broncos. 

The Tampa D has dominated at times (10th in scoring), but has also been lit up by the Saints twice, allowed 31 points to Justin Herbert, and gave up 27 last week to the Rams.

This game should be a shootout, with both teams in the top-nine in pace (neutral), and second (TB) and ninth in neutral pass rate. 

Tampa pushes teams into a high pass rate (second), which is not a good combo against a team like Kansas City. I have written about good rush defenses being a detriment in 2020, as the last thing you want to do is push Mahomes into 40-plus pass attempts (Jared Goff dropped back 51 times last week vs. TB). He averages 42 per game already, and 0.61 FP per dropback, so you can see why he has the biggest raw projection in our model. 

Kansas City is better to attack on the ground (ninth-highest rush rate against), but that only works when you stay close. As they score more points, the pass rate against comes up (60% last three). I expect TB (29.1 PPG, sixth) to come out with the plan to run, but it will likely fall to the wayside after Mahomes scores. 

Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes has averaged 27.51 DK points per game in 14 matchups with a total of 55 or higher. Looking at matchups with KC and Mahomes seems like a waste, because he can post 30 against anyone. When removing the two bad-weather games this season, he has averaged 30.86 fantasy points per game. He is the QB1 on the slate and will come in behind Josh Allen in ownership, so get him on one of your three three-max teams. 

Clyde Edwards-Helaire has 9, 9, 8 and 15 touches over his last four — all Kansas City wins — which doesn’t bode well for his volume in this game against the stingy Tampa front-seven (3.33 adjusted line yards, 2.98 RB yards per carry, first). Tampa Bay can be had through the air, but with Le’Veon Bell and Darrel Williams eating into his playing time (77 combined snaps compared to 65 over their last two), that isn’t enough. 

Tyreek Hill has played as a slot WR on 60% of snaps over his last six games, seeing 31 of his 57 targets inside for 20-204-2. Enter Sean Murphy-Bunting, who has allowed a 137.1 passer rating in coverage and 15 FP (72nd). Moving him in the slot will keep him away from Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis. He should be moderately owned for having the potential to be the WR1 on the slate (20-215-3, last two games, 5 TDs in his last three). 

Travis Kelce doesn’t need a lot of analysis, first in routes, targets, catches, yards and fantasy points per game. With the increased pass rate lately, he has three straight games with at least 10 targets after two such games in his first seven. He is the TE1 (duh), and should be stacked with Mahomes and Hill on your three-max. As always, it is easier to pull off on FanDuel.

Sammy Watkins is back after a five-game absence. He will make it tougher to roster players with Mahomes not named Hill or Kelce, as I don’t see Demarcus Robinson or Mecole Hardman being completely phased out (Byron Pringle landed on IR this week). Mahomes gets 18.7 rushing yards per game and has two rushing TDs, so I don’t think it is necessary to put these guys in the stacks. That said, Watkins would be the guy to take a chance on, with three games of at least 7 targets while healthy. 

Buccaneers

The first thing you need to check when considering Tom Brady is look at the opposition’s pressure rate. KC is top-six in blitz rate and top-10 in pressure rate. Brady’s completion rate drops 40% under duress and his YPA falls more than 3 yards per attempt. Kansas City has allowed production to Bridgewater and Derek Carr in their last two, but are middle of the pack on the season against QBs. 

That’s the bad. To give you Brady stans some hope, Brady is first in red-zone pass attempts per game (6.4), which has led to 25 passing TDs (fourth). He is also first in deep attempts (5.3), but has really struggled lately when passing deep, failing to complete a single pass over 20 yards in his last four games. 

Leonard Fournette seems to have passing-down work on lock, making him the player to use if you want to run it back on your Mahomes stacks. Since returning from injury, he has 26 targets to Ronald Jones’ 13.

Mike Evans has been a TD machine, scoring in eight of 11 games. He leads all players with 16 red-zone and 13 goal-line targets. As always, Evans has a significant size advantage over his primary CB, with 7 inches on Bashaud Breeland and 8 on slot corner Tyrann Mathieu. Evans is sliding inside on about 40% of his snaps this season and scored a TD last week on one of his two targets from the slot. He is too cheap on DK at $6.1k but should only be used in GPPs with the volatility created by having Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski all active. If you are running out multiple lineups, I would mix and match two of them on each lineup. Cameron Brate trolled Gronk owners last week (3-23-0), and Gronk has now had two or fewer receptions in all three games with Brown. We knew someone had to take a hit, and Gronk has been the guy. 

Core plays: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes

GPP only: Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Tom Brady, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Sammy Watkins 

CLE -6.5. O/U: 49
CLE: 27.5 | JAX: 21

Pace and playcalling 

These teams are very contrasting. Cleveland is first in rush rate, Jacksonville second in pass rate. There is a little rain in the forecast, but it doesn’t look like it should be anything to worry about. Cleveland has played in terrible weather for three straight weeks, so it would be pretty funny if they end up in another sloppy game on their trip to sunny Florida. 

Both teams are in the bottom-10 in pace, which combined with the Browns 46% neutral pass rate can take the air out of the game for fantasy. When they get up by at least 7, Cleveland goes to a 35% pass rate. No team has trailed for more snaps for more snaps than Jacksonville, and they have played without a 7-point lead for all but one snap this season, two fewer than the Jets. 

Browns

Like Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield has been limited by the scheme, finishing with fewer than 23 pass attempts in five games (26.5 per game this season). The matchup is terrific, with Jacksonville 30th against the pass and 21st against the run, but I am not sure Jacksonville and Mike Glennon can score enough to get him passing enough to compete with the high-upside QBs on the slate. 

Nick Chubb has 19 and 20 carries for 240 total yards in his two games back. The strange thing has been his lack of red-zone work, with Kareem Hunt getting 10 carries to Chubb’s two. He also has just one target (Hunt, 5), which makes him a strange player to handicap. I normally stay away from an expensive backfield committee, but I see no way Chubb doesn’t go off here. Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-most rushes of 20-plus yards, while Cleveland is second with 14. We will need another home run, but he is breaking one off on 9% of his carries this season. 

Jacksonville is actually worse right now in pass defense and are very beaten up. C.J. Henderson, D.J. Hayden and Chris Claybrooks are all on IR. If that is not enough, Sidney Jones is also OUT, leaving Jacksonville starting two rookies — fourth-rounder Josiah Scott and UDFA Luq Barcoo to play along with Tre Herndon in the slot. Again, it is hard to see a Jacksonville team without D.J. Chark do enough scoring to get Mayfield throwing, but if he does he should have success. 

Austin Hooper faces all the same issues and upside against a porous Jacksonville D that has allowed 8 TDs and 14.5 FPPG to TEs

Jaguars

With Chris Thompson on IR and Dare Ogunbowale questionable, James Robinson is set up for another big workload. He has 26, 25, 25 and 19 touches in his last four, churning out 94 total yards against a tough Pittsburgh team last week. I thought he was going to be contrarian, but his ownership is projected to be 17% and 19% (FD), which makes me less likely to roster him on a three-max. The Browns have to come in with a game plan around stopping him with Glennon at QB and Chark OUT (3.91 RB yards per carry allowed).

With Chark and Chris Conley out, Keelan Cole, Laviska Shenault and Collin Johnson will play WR. Browns top CB Denzel Ward is OUT, but this is still a tough situation for me to invest in. Cleveland is nothing special on D, but we have seen the Glennon show before and it is not good. 

Core plays: Cleveland DST 

GPP only: Nick Chubb, Austin Hooper, Jarvis Landry/Baker Mayfield

LV -3. O/U: 55.5
LV: 29.5 | ATL: 27

This is one of five games with a 50-plus total and should be a major focus for DFS players Sunday. Las Vegas has combined for 56.2 PPG this season, which has them 7-2-1 to the OVER. 

Vegas rushes at the sixth-highest rate and plays at the third-slowest pace, but again, that has not prevented them from being in a bunch of shootouts. They are 30th in points and 32nd in yards per drive allowed; Atlanta is 24th in both stats. 

Atlanta has allowed over 420 total yards and 28 PPG at home. 

The Falcons have gone more balanced, passing at a 56% neural rate in their last five games after starting the season at 63%. If they get a 7-point lead, they go 50/50 run/pass, which is something we are not used to seeing in the Matt Ryan era. Luckily, Vegas comes in red-hot, scoring 31, 37 and 31 points in their last three.

Looking at the Falcons splits this season, it’s all about Julio Jones. They have averaged over 30 points per game when he plays a full complement of snaps, 16 when he doesn’t. The split rolls into Matt Ryan, who has not approached his ceiling without the assistance of the future HOF’er. Jones (hamstring) is questionable after being limited throughout the week and is a true game time decision.

Brian Hill will get the start for Todd Gurley, with Ito Smith as his backup. Hill is nothing special, but neither is Gurley at this point, so at $4k he should be very popular against a LV defense that is dead last in rush DVOA. The big question I and most fantasy players have is whether Atlanta stay committed to running the ball in the red zone. He is also a capable receiver, pulling down 16 of 20 targets he has seen from Ryan this season. 

(I plan on giving this game a full update as we find out more Julio Jones news.

LV @ ATL

LV -3. O/U: 55.5

LV: 29.5 | ATL: 27

LV/ATL 

This is one of 5 games with a 50+ total and should be a major focus for DFS players on Sunday. Las Vegas has combined for 56.2 PPG this season, which has them 7-2-1 to the OVER. 

Vegas rushes at the 6th highest rate and plays at the third slowest pace, but again, that has not prevented them from being in a bunch of shootouts. They are 30th in points and 32nd in yards per drive allowed, ATL is 24th in both stats. 

ATL has allowed over 420 total yards and 28 PPG at home. 

Falcons have gone more balanced, passing at a 56% neural rate in their last 5 games after starting the season at 63%. If they get a 7+ point lead, they go 50/50 run/pass which is something we are not used to seeing in the Matt Ryan era. 

Luckily, LV comes in red-hot, scoring 31, 37, and, 31 points in their last three

Looking at the Falcons splits this season, it is all about Julio. They have averaged over 30 points per game when he plays a full complement of snaps and 16 without. The split rolls into Matt Ryan, who has not approached his ceiling without the assistance of the future HOF’er. Jones (hamstring) is questionable after being  limited throughout the week and is a true game time decision.  

Brian HIll pic 

Brian Hill will get the start for Todd Gurley, with Ito Smith as his backup. Hill is nothing special, but either is Gurley at this point, so at $4k he should be very popular against a LV defense that is dead last in rush DVOA. The big question I and most fantasy players have is will ATL stay committed to running the ball in the RZ. He is also a capable receiver, pulling down 16 of 20 targets he has seen from Ryan this season. 

**I plan on giving this game a full update as Julio news comes in**

Saturday Update 

ATL

It looks like Julio will be a true game time decision. We have seen him limp through games and head to the blue tent so many times that I will not be investing in him. Calvin Ridley is the obvious play, averaging 7-112-0 in three games with Julio. I realize ATL has struggled without Jones this season (21 ppg in two games 26.25 with Julio), but as you can see that has not affected Calvin. Calvin plays 12% in the slot, and only 6% with Julio OUT, so he will be working on the LV outside CBs, Damon Arnette and Trayvon Mullen who have close to no chance against Calvin. 

Hayden Hurst was limited in Friday’s practice (ankle), giving us another situation to monitor. If he misses, we have 40% of ATLs targets up for grabs. If we give hill the 7% Gurley sees, there is still a ton of work to be distributed. Olamide Zaccheaus has seen his targets go from 3.17 to 5 p/g without Julio, but he will have to contend with Russell Gage and Christian Blake, who got the majority of work last week after Julio exited. Blake would be my preferred choice if you want to take a flier in a large-field Ryan stack, but I would not play him otherwise. ATL will likely lean heavier on the run if with HIll as long as script allows, Ridley will see 12-15 targets, and all the other guys are a headache waiting to happen. 

LV

Looking at Sharp Football, you can see Derek Carr (4th in Adjusted YPA) has a lot of success in the short left and middle sections of the field. Couple that with the 128 and 111 passer rating allowed by Atlanta in those sections, and you should get another strong game from Carr and this Raiders offense, who are quietly the number 6 passing DVOA. Waller always absorbs a lot of ownership, and should here against an ATL defense that is dead last in PPG against TEs. He and Nelson Agholor are my preferred stack with Carr, who is just $5.7k on DK/$7.1k FD and projected for 7-8% ownership. With ATL stingy against RBs (top-7 in adjusted line yards and 8th in FPPG allowed), allowing the 6th highest pass rate as teams go after their 26th ranked pass defense (MOST FPPG to QBs). LV will pass at a low 49% rate if the game stays close, so we need Ryan and the Birds to score to get Carr into the top-10 in fantasy scoring. All five of his 20+ FP games have come against teams that can score (KC x2, TB, NO, BUF). 

ATL has produced some phenomenal QB performances this season Dak 450-1 (3 rush TDs), Foles/Trubisky 316-4, Russ 322-4, Rodgers 327-4, Teddy 312-2, Cousins 340-3, Stafford 340-1, Lock 313-2. And Hill 232-0 with 2 rushing scores last week. ATL has been the high tide that raises all ships, so I am staying on this trend. 

Last thing on Agholor, he has come along with Carr in all four games of his 20+ PG games that he has played more than 19% of snaps. He is one of the best value WRs on FD this week at 5% ownership 

Core plays: Carr, Agholor, Waller, Ridley (GPP if Julio is in)

GPP Only: Ryan, Carr-Agholor-Waller 

LAC +5.5. O/U: 53.5
LAC: 24 | BUF: 30

Per RotoWorld: “Chargers coach Anthony Lynn said Austin Ekeler (hamstring, IR) has a ‘chance’ to play in Week 12 against the Bills.”

Ekeler is one of the few players who can change the entire dynamic of an offense, both in terms of rushing and passing usage. He will also make an impact on how we stack the Bills, becoming the preferred run back if Lynn indicates he will assume his normal workload. I am hoping to get clarity on this situation Saturday, and will add a full update for this matchup, one of the best on the slate. If he can’t go, it’s Kalen Ballage and Troymaine Pope, along with a splash of rookie Joshua Kelley, who saw only 6 touches last week. 

Regardless of Ekeler’s status, we know Keenan Allen is a top-three receiver on the slate against the soft interior/slot WR coverage of the Bills. Tre’Davious White does not travel into the slot, so Allen can beat up on Taron Johnson. 

Justin Herbert is not the lock he was last week, but in a 53 total against a potent Buffalo offense, he should get enough volume to produce another QB1 finish, which would be his ninth in 10 games. He has been as consistent as any QB this season with a 19-fantasy-point floor, while reaching a top-four finish in four games. 

Saturday UPDATE 

Pace and Play-Calling 

Fun game on many levels, with both teams in the top-12 in pace. 

They are 2nd and 7th in 20+ yard pass plays on offense

The Chargers (29.71 PPG, last 7) are in the midst of an epic run of shootouts (7-0 the OVER), allowing 38-30-29-31-31-29, and 28 points to the Jets (30.85 p/g).  Buffalo has been in high-scoring games at home, averaging 29.4 PPG, while allowing 26.5 PPG. 

If we can assume the Chargers are playing from behind (BUF is 5th in snaps while winning by 7+ points, and third overall in playing with a lead), we should see a game with elevated pass attempts from Justin Herbert. In 5 games with 40+ pass attempts, he is averaging 28.32 FPPG compared to 24.77 FPPG in four games under 40 attempts. BUF as quietly been the 5th most generous DST to QBs, and Herbert will be ½ the ownership of Josh Allen. 

LAC 

Austin Ekeler is back! If you have been with me for a while, you know I am a bit obsessed with EK, and was calling for him to be the RB1 for quite a while before Melvin Gordon went to DEN. The big question is his snaps and touches, I always just take the approach that if a guy is in the starting lineup, assume he will play a normal allotment of snaps. We know EK didn’t need a ton of work with Melvin and Phil. Now he has a stud at QB with a monster arm, who has been targeting his RBs at the 5th highest rate. 

Kallen Ballage is dealing with an ankle/calf injury, one of which he suffered in practice. We need to be prepared for an EK active + Ballage inactive bomb in the morning which is going to send EK into my optimal lineup on DK at $6.1k. If we have learned anything in 2020, let things play out, don’t assume your lineup now will be your lineup at 1 pm ET.  WIth Josh Kelley falling out of the mix while healthy and the Chargers thin at RB, they went to a heavy usage rate for Ballage. He and Ekeler are the only two LAC backs that have played more than 67% in a game this season (each has two).  The Bills are 27th in adjusted line yards allowed, 26th in RB yards allowed per carry. They have limited backs to the 5th fewest receptions p/g (4), but that is scheduling, both Kamara and Mike Davis caught 8 balls each on just 19 targets. 

We have ridden the Keenan Allen train from $6.1k in week 3, all the way to $8k this week. He had one of those laughable 19 target game last week, leading to a WR1 finish, the fourth time in five games he has been in the top-10. We have been going after BUFF slot coverage all season so no reason to get off of Allen now, even at the high price tag. He will avoid Tre White for 80% of his snaps given how he has lined up this season. 

Tre’Davious White is staying home this season, so if the Chargers were smart (ha, that is a lot to ask), Mike Williams can work on Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson. The big man has played in the slot for 91 snaps this season (9 targets, 3 rec, 1 TD). Hunter Henry has actually played the most SLOT WR than any LAC player this season but has not seen any volume, without a 4+ reception game in 7-straight. That said, he has been oddly consistent, 4-33-0, 4-33-0, 4-30-1, 4-48-1 6.5 targets p/g. He lands in a nice spot here, able to take advantage of the same zone of the field as slot WRs feast in. BUF allows the 2nd most FP on most catches p/g (5.9). The LAC RBs have averaged 9 targets p/g in their last three so I don’t think Ekeler takes away from any of these guys. If anything, he should boost them all by sustaining drives and picking up large chunks of yardage. 

BILLS 
 

Melvin Ingram is OUT, but Chris Harris could return, which would be good timing for the Chargers with CB Casey Hayward OUT. The big inactive for BUF is John Brown, who opens up 17.6% of Josh Allen’s targets. Allen has lost some of his high without Smokey, averaging 9.43 FPPG LESS in two games without Brown this season. It’s just two games, and one of those was that weird rain game against KC, but if you want something to make you feel better about fading the most popular QB on the slate, there you go. 

Allen runs into this Chargers team that is pulling all their opponents into 60+ point games. The Bills have also played in some huge fantasy games, excluding the bad weather games with NE and KC, he is averaging 29.8 FPPG, which is essentially Lamar Jackson, circa 2019. There should only be 10-15 MPH winds tomorrow in BUF and around 50 degrees, which is about as good as it gets for BUF this time of year
 

The Bills RBs are a bit of a DFS mess since Zack Moss returned/ Moss out-touched Devin Singletary 43-35 over his last four. Moss still needs a TD to be useful but is getting the goal line work so I don’t hate him in GPPs (6 GL carries). I would not run him back with Herbert, however since Singeltary has 14 targets to Moss’ 8. LAC has the 27th rush DVOA, but BUF throws a lot in the RZ and has a QB that has 7 GL carries and scores TDs at the same rate as Zeke Elliot. 

Stefon Diggs is Buffalo’s answer to Keenan, seeing 8+ targets in 6-straight, averaging 13.5 p/g with Brown out. They are expensive, but you need to have Herbert-Allen-Diggs and Allen-Diggs-Allen stacks. 

Cole Beasley has been great, but his price is up and LAC has been pretty solid inside. He too has seen a nice target bump without Brown, catching 17 balls in the two games. He can be deployed in those stacks as well, but I am not forcing him in cash lineups. 

Gabriel Davis is a good showdown play, a fun milly maker play if you multi-enter, but I would not put him in 3-Max if that is all I play.

Core plays: Ekeler, Keenan, Josh Allen, Diggs

GPP Only: Herbert, Henry, Williams, Moss 

Core plays: Keenan Allen, Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs

GPP only: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler (pending update) 

MIA -6.5. O/U: 44.5
MIA: 26 | NYJ: 19

Per Rotoworld:

“Brian Flores hasn’t decided if Myles Gaskin (knee, IR) will be available for Week 12 against the Vikings.

Flores said he needs to ‘watch film’ in order to determine whether Gaskin is ready to be activated from injured reserve prior to Sunday. Salvon Ahmed (shoulder) has since been ruled out, suggesting Gaskin would receive the lion’s share of touches if he’s available Sunday. Matt Breida, who recorded two touches on Sunday, and DeAndre Washington, who was healthy scratched for Week 11, would likely split carries if Gaskin is ruled out Sunday morning.
Tua Tagovailoa (thumb) is listed as questionable for Week 12 against the Jets. 
Tagovailoa got in some limited practice sessions this week and would seem likely to get the green light for Sunday. If he’s inactive, Ryan Fitzpatrick would get the start and become a QB2 play with upside. Fitzgerald under center would be a boost for DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki.”

(Translation: This situation needs more news, I will update once we get clarity.)

SATURDAY UPDATE 

What an insane news cycle today. I feel pretty happy with myself for waiting on all these situations to play out, writing up 30 teams in a week is enough work without having to do some of them multiple times. 

Pace and Play-Calling 

Not a great game from a pace and play-calling perspective. MIA and NYJ are bottom-4 in plays per game, due to 9th and 12th lowest pace.  That was the issue in part 1, with Fitz tossing three TD passes in the first half and then 9 pass attempts in the second half. 

The hope here is the return of Sam Darnold now has a full complement of receivers with Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, Chris Herndon and Denzel Mims all healthy. I don’t have any interest in stacking Jets against a MIA D that has 9 INTs in their last 9 games compared to 10 TDs. What I am hoping from this crew is 20-24 points, which would keep the Dolphins passing for the entire game. They have shown signs of life lately, with the 28 points vs LAC and 27 vs NE. They scored 19 points in 4 games prior to that. 

MIA

As you can see above, Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged 250 yards and 1.67 TDs this season and comes back to the nuts matchup with NYJ. He is down to $5.5k on DK, so I will be going right back to him and Davante Parker heavily. Parker without Preston Williams last year was a lock, averaging 100 yards and 20.78 FPPG in eight games last year. He will likely be in the Sunday AM core lineup. 

Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin are OUT, leaving Matt Breida, Patrick Laird, Malcolm Perry, and DeAndre Washington in the mix. Breida would be the guy to take a chance on for the rushing work, with the Jets trailing for the most snaps this season, they see 30 rush attempts per game, which would set up Brieda for 15 attempts with even half. Perry did get a decent run last week, playing 78% of snaps due to MIA trailing, seeing 5 targets and no carries, but Ahmed was still able to get 5 targets of his own. With FITZ at QB, MIA targeted their backs at 24% (10th). 

Mike Gesicki put together his most consistent three-game stretch, posting 40+ yards in 3-straight. He also got a nice bump last season once Williams was out, going from 4.4 to 7.25 targets p/g, but that still equaled the same production we just saw (3.5-40). Like all these TEs, we need a TD, which is more likely with FItz.

Sam Darnold is back. I know that isn’t very exciting, but he now has a full complement of receivers with Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman, Christopher Herndon and Denzel Mims all healthy. I don’t have any interest in stacking Jets against a Miami D that has 9 INTs in the last nine games compared to 10 TDs allowed. What I am hoping from this crew is 20-24 points, which would keep the Dolphins passing more. 

Core plays: PARKER, Fitz, Brieda 

GPP only: Crowder 

TEN +3.5. O/U: 50.5
TEN: 23.5 | IND: 27

Pace and Play-Calling 

This game grades well for pace, but both teams run at a top-10 rate overall. Even when TENN has played from 7 or more down, they have continued to hand the ball to Derrick Henry (49%, 32nd). That has Ryan Tannehill averaging 27 pass attempts p/g in his last 5, despite losing three of those games. 

TEN

Tannehill had a season-low 5.4 Y/A and 55.6% completion rate against these Colts, so he isn’t on my radar, despite INDY showing vulnerability lately as their opponents have gotten better (4th fewest FO allowed, despite the 300 + 3 they gave up to Rodgers last week). 

Derrick Henry keeps running into tough defenses without their big DT. This week it is Colts tackle, DeForest Buckner who is out. Henry followed his model, a slow start and then big runs to finish with 103 yards. Defensive end Denico Autry and Linebacker Bobby Okereke were ruled OUT. Per the Colts website, “Okereke will be another big loss for the Colts defense. Okereke although starts at SAM linebacker he slides over to MIKE during passing downs and is a big part of the Colts coverage”. 

A.J. Brown showed why low-volume receivers can drive you crazy. With him tied to Henry and his offense, he doesn’t get enough targets, so when he drops a 60-yard TD pass that is all she wrote. He is like a HR hitter then continues to get one pitch per game, and hits an HR on that pitch, scoring a TD in 6 of 7. He is the same thing again this week, he will likely get his 4, maybe 5 catches, with the big play and TD being the difference. He will be less than 10% owned on all sites, making him a great upside GPP play. 

Corey Davis has been much more consistent, minus a goose egg against CHI. He has been great since returning from being on the COVID list outside of that Bears game, posting 6-35-1, 8-128-1, 5-67-0, and 5-113-0. He is averaging a solid 15 FPPG on DK and is still $4.9k, despite showing a similar ceiling to Brown (29 FP @ CIN). 

More than these two cutting into each other’s targets, TEN spreads the ball around. Last week, Tannehill completed a pass to 9 different players, including four to both of his TEs. I can’t play the third or fourth option on a run-first team. 

IND

Philip Rivers has found his second wind, throwing 10 TD passes in his last 5 games. Ten has given up big production to QBs, including 308-1-0 to Rivers. With Michael Pittman back, he has a legit outside weapon to complement his stable of TEs, RBs, and smaller WRs (TY Hilton / Zach Pascal). Per our advanced DvP tool, TEN is a top-8 matchup for LWR-RWR, and especially the left side, which is where Mr. Pittman Jr. (7-101-2 vs TENN)  runs most of his routes. He also lines up inside for 11+ snaps a game, where he has caught 6-8 targets (last 3 

With Jonathan Taylor on COVID-IR, Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins have an RBBC with one less second-round draft pick to contend with. Taylor got all the work I was hoping Hines would get (or even ½), but he still out-snapped Wilkins 67-23 in their last two games. INDY finds a way to troll us nearly every time we attempt this, but I am a masochist so doing it again with Hines. He is my favorite value RBs on the slate. 

Core plays Hines, Michael Pittman Jr.

GPP Only: Henry. Corey Davis, AJ Brown, Rivers

NO -5.5. O/U: 43.5
NO: 24 | DEN: 18

SAT UPDATE

As you know by now, the Broncos’ QBs are all on the COVID list, and the league is forcing them to play with a practice squad TE who was a backup QB in college to start. I say it all the time, if you are a single entry or 3-Max players, you are searching for reasons to cross out games, as you can only stack 1-3. I was already off this game with both defenses being above league average and the Saints starting to play very well on D late in the season, what seems like an annual tradition. The only big change here is moving off the NO DST, as DEN may not pass much. This could be them grinding the clock, running wildcat, and feeding their backs. Against a top-rated run defense, this should be a real shit show. Most books have moved this total down to 36, which is all I need to see. 

Saints

Alvin Kamara had limited work again in practice as he dealt with a foot/toe injury that held him to 45.8% of the snaps, his lowest rate in a game this season. Kamara felt the sting of losing his QB and having a healthy Michael Thomas in the lineup, getting one target and failing to record a catch for the first time in his career. I do not expect that to happen again, but the days of 15 targets while Thomas was out and Drew Brees was in are long gone. He also has to contend with Taysom Hill, who has a nose for scoring rushing TDs at the goal line. Hill got a steep price increase and eligibility adjustment on FanDuel and lands in a tougher road matchup. Still, I like him for tournaments, with healthy props of 50.5 rushing yards and 200 passing yards, along with 1.5 passing TDs and a solid rushing TD line.

Broncos

Drew Lock is in the “Mike Glennon tier,” which means he is a no-go for me. The Saints push their opponents into the pass with a good offense and great rushing D, but they also blitz a good amount and get pressure on the QB, which makes me more interested in their DST than I am in Lock. 

Melvin Gordon (15-84-2) and Phillip Lindsay (16-82-0) finally put together a solid game, but New Orleans is not Miami (29th rush DVOA). They also have a (probable) negative script to contend with against a tough Saints team. 

Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Noah Fant and K.J. Hamler are being used, making this a tough situation to invest in considering they don’t get many scoring opportunities. Denver is 29th in RZ opportunities per game (New Orleans is first).

Core plays: N/A

GPP only: Taysom Hill, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara 

SF +7. O/U: 45.5
SF: 19 | LAR: 26.5

Pace and playcalling 

The Rams are the only team with all of their home games going UNDER the total, with their games -16.2 combined PPG under the total (first by a 9-point margin over Chicago). With Nick Mullens under center and George Kittle OUT, it’s hard to see San Francisco doing enough to elevate this game to a fantasy-friendly status. In addition, the Rams had to close their facility Friday for positive COVID-19 tests; considering how that has been playing out (BAL/PIT, for example), I will be waiting to do my full analysis on this game. 

Saturday Update 

Pace and Play-Calling 

The 49ers have lots of news. WR Deebo Samuel, RB Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, Richard Sherman have all been activated. Mostert, Wilson and Sherman are ‘questionable’, but they aren’t on the traditional injury list. Mostert is supposed to play, knocking Jerick McKinnon down the depth chart (Tevin Coleman is OUT). With this being played on the best coast, we may not know about Wilson or Sherman by the time lineups lock, though I think Sherman will play. 

This is the slowest paced game outside of MINN, with SF 30th in neutral pace. LAR passes at 43% once up by 7+, but that should get SF playing faster and passing. They play at the second-highest pace when down 7+ and pass at the highest rate (75%). 

LAR

The best play in this game is Cooper Kupp, whose hot zone lines up perfectly with the weak spots in this SF secondary. Jamar Taylor is the primary slot CB now, with K’Waun Williams still OUT, and Kupp has been getting hot. 6-43-0, 11-110-0, 5-50-0, 11-145-0. HIs biggest risk lie in the Rams defense making this another low scoring, ugly game where Goff and his crew aren’t needed. The other is Bob Woods, who has run 72 slot snaps since week 7 (Kupp, 110), so can also take advantage of the same sections of the field, away from Jason Verett and Sherman. 

Jared Goff has been hot, but has always struggled against this defense. They have not been great this season, but still grade out well in quite a few areas, like top-10 in blitz and pressure rate. 

Per Rotoworld: The Rams only had a walkthrough on Friday due to two positive tests on the team, but Higbee notably didn’t practice on Wednesday and Thursday mid-week. Gerald Everett has made one start for Higbee this year, hauling in four catches for 28 yards and his only touchdown of the season on five targets. Everett will be a fringe TE1 if only for the lack of viable options at that position assuming Higbee sits.

I hope we get some clarity here, since you know I want to use my boy Gerald Everett. Everett played a season-high 76% of the offensive snaps, catching 4-of-5 targets for 28 yards and a score when Higbee was out against CHI. SF has been tough against TEs, allowing the second-fewest FP to the position. That said, it is all schedule based, facing no real threats at the position all season. In the Rams last matchup with SF, the two Rams TEs combined for 6-83-0 which would work just fine at $4.7k on FD. 

Malcolm Brown, Cam Akers, and Darrell Henderson is the most annoying situation this season, I have no desire to mess with this on a full slate. 

SF 

Jordan Reed is also questionable, which makes Ross Dwelley interesting. We just may not have clarity prior to lock. 

Per Rotowire: Coach Kyle Shanahan “did not appear optimistic” on Brandon Aiyuk’s (COVID) chance to return for Week 12 against the Rams.

Deebo Samuel, Kendrick Bourne and Richie James will be your WRs in a brutal matchup. Deebo does all his damage with YAC, so is not as susceptible to traditional CB/WR matchups. He put up 6-66-1 against the Rams by doing exactly that. 

Core plays: LAR DST

GPP Only: Kupp, Everett 

NYG -6 / O/U 45
NYG: 26 | CIN: 19

I am depressed we don’t get to play Joe Burrow in his plus matchup with the Giants, and their No. 29 pass DVOA. But that is how it goes in the NFL, so instead we get Brandon Allen, who was called up from the practice squad to start over Ryan Finley. In addition to the QB issues, Giovani Bernard is banged up, but is supposed to play. Still, that could lead to more Samaje Perine usage, which makes this even uglier. 

We have no idea how Allen will distribute the ball to his three receivers, but Tyler Boyd over the middle on short passing routes seems logical. 

Wayne Gallman will be the only player in this game with any significant ownership (10%), which makes sense after he has scored 5 TDs in his last four games, averaging 19 touches per game in his last two. With Cincinnati rolling out a practice-squad QB behind a terrible O-line, the game flow should set up for another heavy workload. Alfred Morris and Dion Lewis are in the mix, but not enough to avoid Gallman in this spot. Since we want to stack the TB/KC game and play Dalvin Cook and other expensive players, being able to mix in Gallman at $5k on DK and $5.7k on FD will help our cause. 

(I will update this game in full on Saturday.)

Core plays: Wayne Gallman, NY Giants DST 

GPP only: Daniel Jones/Evan Engram, Tyler Boyd

Top Stacks: 

LAC/BUFF 

KC/TB 

LV/ATL 

Sneaky stack: CAR/MIN

CASH/CORE PLAYS

Core (FD): Carr – Hill – Cook – Calvin – Beasley – Waller – Ekeler 

Core (DK):  Carr – Hill – Cook – Calvin – Pittman  – Shenault – Ekeler 

The guys I have a lot of not in the CASH CORE (3-Max + SE)

LAC/BUFF stacks

KC Stacks (Kelce most owned) 

N. HINES 

AGHOLOR 

PARKER + FITZ 

Jefferson 

Breida 

Underweight – Bucs ( I have some Fournette as a run-back to KC stacks), AZ players, Mike Davis (I think he bounces back)

Low(er) owned one-offs: Kupp, Chubb, C. Samuel, Everett (Be prepared to swap if Higbee is in)