Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2022 NFL regular season has come to an end, and the playoffs are officially upon us. That means most of the league now understands where they fall in terms of next year’s draft and can start assessing their needs as they prepare for free agency and the NFL draft.
This article will look at some offensive needs from an NFL perspective (that can also help us for fantasy!) for every AFC team heading into the 2023 offseason. (Coming Wednesday: The NFC.)
Baltimore Ravens
Team Need for 2023: A legitimate option at wide receiver
Some would argue Baltimore’s biggest need would be the health of Lamar Jackson (and a resolution to his ongoing contract drama). However, regardless of whether Jackson is under center, this team needs a player who can command targets and make defenses defend the whole field on the outside.
It’s hard to believe a playoff team has Demarcus Robinson and a rookie tight end as two of its top three targets, but here we are. Rashod Bateman has all the makings of a strong receiver but has now missed most of his two seasons with lower body injuries, which could impact his ability to become that true WR1 we all envisioned. Baltimore needs to add to their receiving room for whatever quarterback is under center in 2023 to at least keep defenses honest and force opponents to defend the whole field.
Buffalo Bills
Team Need for 2023: A running back who can handle early down work
The Bills’ offense continued to operate at a high level in 2022 through the big arm and rushing ability of Josh Allen. However, the team cannot continue to put Allen through the hits he takes and expect his body to hold up given their investment in him as a quarterback. Buffalo needs to invest in a capable running back this offseason to take some physical demand off their quarterback.
Devin Singletary led the team in rushing attempts once again this season and had some big games, but he is entering free agency. James Cook showed explosiveness as a runner but doesn’t have the size we expect from “grinder” backs in the NFL. Zack Moss is no longer on the team after he was moved in the deal that brought Nyheim Hines to Buffalo. This team needs a back who can handle the physical work and needs to prioritize that role this offseason.
Cincinnati Bengals
Team Need for 2023: Solidify tight end
The Bengals came into the 2022 season fresh off a Super Bowl appearance with an offensive core that featured stellar young talent at quarterback, running back and wide receiver. One area of need coming into the season was at tight end, where the team gave Hayden Hurst a one-year deal to replace C.J. Uzomah. Hurst performed well during his one season with the Bengals (52 receptions on 68 targets for 414 yards and two touchdowns), but he will once again hit free agency this offseason. The Bengals may opt to bring him back or attempt to add to their cache of young offensive talent by targeting a tight end in the draft. Tight end remains the biggest hole on their offense heading into 2023.
Cleveland Browns
Team Need for 2023: Add wide receiver help
Cleveland will head into the 2023 season knowing that they still have Nick Chubb, a strong offensive line and a full season of Deshaun Watson under center. The team got everything they needed from Amari Cooper (78 receptions for 1,160 yards and nine touchdowns) but can still use more established talent around him. Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku each had solid years, but the team could use some more help after rookie David Bell (24 receptions for 214 yards) struggled with consistency. Cleveland will have to get creative thanks to a lack of draft capital but need to add to their offensive talent if they truly want to capitalize on their new quarterback.
Denver Broncos
Team Need for 2023: Running back help
The Denver Broncos’ 2022 season was a mess due to injuries, bad playcalling and poor play from Russell Wilson. Assuming a new coach and offensive scheme can get Wilson back on track, the receiving weapons in Denver are solid. Denver’s biggest need going into 2023 will be stability at the running back position. Javonte Williams will likely need time to recover from his 2022 ACL injury, which means the Broncos will be looking for a player who can hold down the fort until he’s recovered. Latavius Murray, Mike Boone and Marlon Mack all got snaps down the stretch but are slated to be free agents. That leaves Chase Edmonds as the only running back after Williams with a contract next season. Denver will need to add to the backfield until Williams can resume his full workload.
Houston Texans
Team Need for 2023: Draft the quarterback of the future
The Houston Texans came into 2022 hopeful that Davis Mills could take a developmental step and allow the team the flexibility to build around him. Unfortunately, Mills struggled and was benched while completing 61% of his passes for 3,118 yards and 17 touchdowns with 13 interceptions. Houston won their last game of the season, giving them the second overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft. Houston will likely be choosing between Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud (assuming he declares for the draft) and have a solid offensive line and plenty of draft ammunition (thanks to the Deshaun Watson trade) to try and build for that quarterback’s success.
Indianapolis Colts
Team Need for 2023: Find a quarterback with staying power
The Colts have spent the last three seasons acquiring veteran quarterbacks to try to keep open a competitive roster window. Philip Rivers played well in 2020, leading the team to the playoffs before deciding to retire. Carson Wentz had a fine season in 2021, but the team won just nine games and was dealt after the season. In 2022, the team brought in Matt Ryan, but ultimately benched him twice throughout the season for Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles. Now the Colts are picking fourth in the draft and have an opportunity to take a long-term solution, though they might need to trade up to do it. They can also choose to invest in a veteran like Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo. Whichever route they take, the Colts are armed with a solid offensive line, Jonathan Taylor at running back and Michael Pittman as their WR1. The Colts need to plant their flag on a quarterback solution who can bring the franchise a consistent player at the position.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team Need for 2023: Solidify tight end
Based on the 2022 season, the Jaguars have one of the better offenses in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence took a massive step in his second season, completing 66% of his passes for 4,113 yards and 25 touchdowns with eight interceptions. Travis Etienne bounced back after missing his rookie season and looked explosive as the team’s lead back. Christian Kirk and Zay Jones flashed as the team’s top two receivers, and the team added Calvin Ridley during the trade deadline. The Jaguars also got a great season from Evan Engram at tight end.
The veteran tight end signed just a one-year deal last offseason, so the team will need to decide to re-sign the explosive weapon or replace him. Either way, the future is bright for the Jaguars going forward.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team Need for 2023: Bolster the wide receiver room
Nobody would have been surprised if Patrick Mahomes took a step back after the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill before the 2022 season. Instead, Mahomes completed 67% of his passes while throwing for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. Most of that damage was done with Travis Kelce, but Kansas City had an array of receivers contribute throughout the season.
Kansas City will need to decide what to do at wide receiver going forward. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Justin Watson and Mecole Hardman are all unrestricted free agents this offseason. Kansas City may be content heading into 2023 with a wide receiver corps of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney, but the team should try to retain one of those free agents or upgrade the position with a trade.
Las Vegas Raiders
Team Needs for 2023: Find a new quarterback
Three weeks ago, the most pressing need for the Las Vegas Raiders was deciding if they wanted to invest in Josh Jacobs after his stellar 2022 season. However, the Raiders decided to bench Derek Carr down the stretch and reports indicate the team will be cutting him if they cannot find a trade partner. According to FTN’s adjusted completion percentage tool, the Raiders may not be wrong in their assessment of the quarterback.
The Raiders will have to figure out if they want to roll with Jarrett Stidham, bring in a free-agent option or invest in a rookie quarterback in this class. The Raiders boast a questionable offensive line and have not decided on what to do with Josh Jacobs, but they do still boast a receiving group of Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow and Mack Hollins.
Los Angeles Chargers
Team Need for 2023: A deep threat in the passing attack
It is hard to say if this adjustment needs to occur from a personnel standpoint or a playcalling standpoint, but the Chargers need to find ways to attack down the field given Justin Herbert’s strengths as a deep ball passer. The Chargers’ top three wide receivers this season were in the bottom 12 of NFL receivers in air yards (minimum 750 receiving yards).
If the Chargers truly want to take that next step on offense (both in the NFL and in fantasy), they need to figure out how to incorporate a vertical element into their offense. The Chargers’ core of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler will have at least one more year together and could use a legitimate speed threat to open them up.
Miami Dolphins
Team Need in 2023: Find a workhorse running back
Some would argue that the most important thing Miami could do is to find ways to keep Tua Tagovailoa upright in the pocket. However, there are plenty of quarterbacks who could find success in an offense that features Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. One thing Miami can do to help Tua (and the team in general) is to find a running back that can provide consistent availability. The Dolphins were able to find success with ex-49ers Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson this season, but both players struggled with injury. Miami will need to target the perfect fit for themselves this offseason in what could be one of the deepest free agent and draft pools of running backs in years.
New England Patriots
Team Need in 2023: Hire a real offensive coordinator
The Patriots went with an unconventional approach to start the 2023 season, deciding to roll with Matt Patricia (the team’s former defensive coordinator) as offensive coordinator. The results were less than stellar. The Patriots still got a great season from Rhamondre Stevenson, but the passing offense languished, and the team struggled to consistently move the ball. New England fired Patricia from his OC role after the season and has been tied to names like Bill O’Brien, Kliff Kingsbury and Rams pass game coordinator Zac Robinson. Any of those names figure to be an upgrade and can hopefully get Mac Jones back on track in his development.
New York Jets
Team Need in 2023: Find a quarterback who can win now
The Jets ended the 2022 season with the ability to identify some real bright spots on their team. The defense was excellent, and rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner was the first rookie All-Pro defensive back in 45 years. Garrett Wilson looks like one of the next great receivers to come out of Ohio State thanks to a rookie season that saw him catch 83 passes for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns. However, none of that matters unless the team can address the quarterback position.
Zach Wilson continued to struggle and was benched multiple times throughout the season. Mike White was an excellent story but isn’t a long-term solution. Joe Flacco is old as dirt. This team could be a contender in the AFC with slightly above-average quarterback play, meaning the Jets need to pull out all stops to identify a veteran who can get this team to the next level. Wilson will likely be on the roster next season, but he proved once again that he just isn’t ready to be a starting NFL quarterback at this point in his development.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team Need in 2023: Upgrade the offensive line
This note is pretty similar to 2022. Statistically, Kenny Pickett didn’t produce anything special this season, but he looked like an NFL-caliber quarterback in the final weeks of the season. The team has solid wide receivers in Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, a strong two-way tight end in Pat Freiermuth and a nice two-headed running back approach developed between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. However, this offense will continue to struggle unless they address the trenches and identify upgrades at center and tackle this offseason.
Tennessee Titans
Team Need in 2023: Keep adding NFL-level wide receivers
The Titans continued to ride Derrick Henry into the ground this season, but the team needs to continue to add competent pass catchers to the roster.
Robert Woods played well in his first season after an ACL tear, and Treylon Burks showed flashes in his first season in the NFL. But having a modern NFL offense that has a leading receiver with 527 yards just isn’t sustainable in today’s NFL. The Titans will likely run it back for one more season with Ryan Tannehill and need to add more balance to the offense now that the Jaguars have taken a step and won the division against them.
