Single-Entry Strategies for NFL DFS Week 15

Welcome to what I believe will quickly become my favorite article to write. It’s a single-entry guide to each week in NFL DFS, which mixes evergreen thoughts with slate-specific thoughts about both strategy and individual plays. I’ll be heavily referencing our contest sims and GPP Scores, but I also recommend revisiting (or checking out) our contest selection 101 article for a reminder of how we want to attack single entry contests in the first place (hint — aggressively).

If I had to summarize in one sentence how you should approach lineup building in general, but especially for SE contests, it’s this — stop asking if a decision is something you can do and start making sure each decision is something you should do.

Every week, I get questions in Discord like “Can I play Anthony Richardson naked?” or “Can I play both Detroit RBs?” etc. etc. The word “can” carries a lot of weight here. Suboptimally built lineups can win, and they do win. But they don’t win as often as optimally built lineups. So that’s our goal — to build lineups with as high a probability of success as we possibly can. This article is about how I plan to do just that in Week 15.

Single-Entry Stacks for Week 15

Let’s set the stage with some general discussion about the role of stacks in 2024 NFL DFS. Week 15 is taking us right back to the extremely tight pricing environment that we’ve seen most of this season. In fact, last week may have been the first week of the season where that wasn’t the case (because of injuries opening the door for Braelon Allen, Isaac Guerendo and Zach Charbonnet). But Week 14 was also unique in the sense that two games erupted. Minnesota stacks and the Josh Allen/Puka Nacua combination hit in a way that basically no other stack has hit all season with the exception of the two Baltimore/Cincinnati games. We are seeing fewer ceiling performances from receivers this season even though their ceiling hasn’t come down at all (just look at the massive scores from Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua and Jordan Addison within the last week). 

Ironically, this makes correlation even more important. One reason people hesitate to double stack QBs at times is that they worry about hurting their ceiling. “If I have Tyreek Hill, do I really want to also use Jaylen Waddle?”

Now more than ever, the answer is “Yes!” Even last week, Tua Tagovailoa double stacks hit in a big way because Jaylen Waddle’s 20.9 DK points — though far from a ceiling performance — were a big upgrade over the chalky 13.7 DK points from Jakobi Meyers or the 12.9 from Calvin Ridley Jordan Addison’s 42.3 DK points in addition to Justin Jefferson’s 35.2 is a far more rare and extreme example, but the point is the same in either case — finding the environments that excel from a fantasy perspective is the most important thing, and when you find them, they can elevate everyone involved to the top of the slate.

So to that point, every stack I consider this week has to be a high-correlation stack.

1. Miami/Houston

Tyreek Hill broke out of his 100-yard slump! He still didn’t have any monstrous plays, but that just shows how much meat is still left on the bone here. Houston is a pass-funnel defense (No. 1 in rush defense DVOA) and Miami is throwing the ball a ton right now. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Jonnu Smith all have positive GPP Scores, so I’m good with any combination of the three, whereas the bringback is more specific. Nico Collins has the top GPP Score on the slate and is a must in this game-stack.

Tua Tagovailoa — at least two of Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle/Jonnu Smith — Nico Collins

Which two of the Miami pass catchers is best is one of the top questions I intend to answer with the sims.

2. Cleveland/Kansas City

No team has allowed more explosive passing yards over the last five weeks than the Kansas City Chiefs. This vaunted defense has been anything but, as that includes allowing deep production to Bo Nix, Bryce Young, Aidan O’Connell and Justin Herbert sans Ladd McConkey. Jameis Winston could give TwoGun his sixth million dollar win this week (good luck, TwoGun!) and if he does, there’s a good chance I’ll have my own lesser win alongside him.

Jerry Jeudy is the obvious play, but now that Cedric Tillman has been ruled out, Elijah Moore also works. KC has struggled with opposing TEs all season though, so Jordan Akins needs some attention too with David Njoku currently on the wrong side of questionable. In fact, since this article is about what you should do and not what you can do, I’ll even tighten up this suggestion:

Jameis Winston — Jerry Jeudy — Jordan Akins — Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco is my favorite bringback, because Cleveland continues to allow a ton of explosive rushing production and he’s too cheap on a slate with little RB value. That said, I will also test some lineups with Elijah Moore, DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce mixed into this game-stack, as well.

3. Buffalo/Detroit

We are projecting this game to be fairly low-rostered despite the BUF-LAR explosion last week for two reasons:

• It’s harder to fit this week
• People don’t know which Bills or Lions to play

I, on the other hand, do know which Bills and Lions I want to play. Detroit is blitzing at what would be a league-high rate if sustained for an entire season since Aidan Hutchinson went down. Amari Cooper shreds defenses against the blitz with his sharp route-running and Khalil Shakir punishes defenses for blitzing with his yards-after-catch ability. These guys would be even better without the returns of Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman, but they’d also be a lot more popular.

On the other side, Buffalo’s biggest weakness is their propensity to give up explosive runs. That makes the bringback decision a little easier, as well.

Josh Allen — Amari Cooper — Khalil Shakir — Jahmyr Gibbs

If I can find the savings to make this work, it’s probably my favorite stack but I don’t intend to force it.

4. LA Chargers/Tampa Bay

Nobody blitzes more than Tampa Bay, and nobody plays more zone than Tampa Bay. They’re also playing a lot of single-high lately (in part because they’re playing a lot of Cover 3. No matter how you slice it, two Chargers benefit from all of these tendencies — Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston. The Chargers can’t run the ball anyway with J.K. Dobbins out, and Tampa is one of the premiere pass funnels in the league, so we could see a ton of volume and production from this Chargers stack.

The bringback is more difficult. The Chargers also play a lot of zone and two-high, but excluding Chris Godwin, you probably wouldn’t guess who leads the Bucs in YPRR against those coverage tendencies. It’s Bucky Irving. Can I trust his health even if he suits up? Not sure. Our best outcome is probably to hope he sits and just assume that Rachaad White gets similar touches, but I’d also have some interest in Sean Tucker if Bucky is a no-go. Cade Otton is also in play with one of the better TE GPP Scores on the slate.

Justin Herbert — Ladd McConkey — Quentin Johnston — Cade Otton/Bucky Irving/Rachaad White/Sean Tucker

Single-Entry One-Offs for Week 15

There are two categories of one-offs… high-probability plays and contrarian upside plays. The only time I deviate greatly from the GPP Scores is when I believe a play is so likely to succeed that I don’t care if they’re over-rostered. When I use these plays, I’m not asking them to win me the slate, I’m asking them to preserve the advantage that my contrarian upside plays provide me. Speaking of the contrarian upside plays, you can use just about any great GPP Score play as a one-off, but you should be more selective than that. First, the sims (and GPP Scores) are telling us a pretty clear story that we should win most slates (this one included) with WRs, not RBs or TEs. As in, being right about the receivers you play is what helps you separate from the field the most. So I’m more likely to prioritize a good GPP Score at WR than at RB or TE (this can also be seen in the fact that the highest GPP Scores at RB and TE are lower than the best WR GPP Scores).

However, this doesn’t mean we should just toss in as many high-GPP Score WRs as we can. We need to ask what the one-off means for the rest of the lineup. For example, if A.J. Brown has a big game, it’s extremely likely that Jalen Hurts will too. So if you’re not using a Hurts stack, you probably shouldn’t be using Brown as a one-off (this is a rule I probably haven’t followed enough in the last few years given how often I’ve used WRs in the flex). When using an expensive WR as a one-off, he needs to have a path to success without dragging the QB along with him. This typically means using WRs who can get there without explosive plays and whose QB has no rushing upside. Three names stand out to me at the top of the GPP Scores right now who can be used as one-offs:

CeeDee Lamb
Davante Adams
Garrett Wilson (slightly more explosive-play dependent than Adams)

I do not currently view any RBs as high probability plays, so I don’t currently have a list of “good chalk” for the week. I like that though — it sets us up to be a little more contrarian than usual which historically has worked out better for me than the slates where I know I have to eat more chalk, like last week.

There is one high-probability play I can almost guarantee will be in my lineup though — the Washington DST. The Saints are without:

Derek Carr
Chris Olave
Rashid Shaheed
Taysom Hill

Without exaggeration, those are easily the four most important players to their offense (no, I didn’t forget Alvin Kamara). Washington should steamroll them. You’ll probably see a related call in my Hot Takes article Saturday.

Final Thoughts

This slate still depends on some key RB injury news, primarily about Tony Pollard, Breece Hall and Bucky Irving. We may end up with a similar slate to last week, we may end up with a slate nothing at all like last week. As always, it will be important to react well to the news and the effect the news has on rostership and the GPP Scores.