Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
With so many star fantasy football players dealing with serious injuries, taking a deep dive into usage rates is going to be as important as ever.
Each week our usage report will look at one utilization stat that was noticeable and explain what that might mean for fantasy football moving forward.
Fantasy Football Usage Report Through Week 6
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Dalton Kincaid Leads Team in Targets 3 Games in a Row
If you’ve drafted Dalton Kincaid in your redraft leagues, you’ve probably experienced a great deal of frustration, but the light is definitely at the end of the tunnel, as the second-year TE has led the Bills in targets for three consecutive games. His 20 combined targets in those three games have only netted 13 receptions for 122 yards and no touchdowns, but with no one really standing out at the WR position, and Amari Cooper needing time to get acclimated to the playbook, I expect Kincaid’s season to turn around sooner rather than later.
Miami Dolphins: Bye Week
New England Patriots: Kayshon Boutte Leads WRs in Snaps
One week after Ja’Lynn Polk sees 100% of the snaps, his snap count dropped to just 65% (43) while Kayshon Boutte ended up seeing 83% of the snaps (55). Head coach Jerod Mayo has given Boutte a lot of praise in recent weeks, so I wouldn’t be surprised if his high usage continues throughout the season.
New York Jets: Breece Hall Sees Highest Snap Rate of the Season
With Robert Saleh out at head coach and Todd Downing taking over as the playcaller, Breece Hall saw his highest snap rate of the season at 87% (55) while Braelon Allen only saw 19% (12). Not coincidentally, Hall had his best game of the season, with 18 carries for 113 yards and 5 catches for 56. Davante Adams joining the roster will end up being more concerning for guys like Allen Lazard and Mike Williams than it will for Hall, so I wouldn’t worry too much about it.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Mark Andrews Finally Catches a TD, Still Doesn’t See More Snaps Than Isaiah Likely
While the headlines may be focused on Mark Andrews catching his first touchdown of the season, it still doesn’t appear to be a great situation for those with shares of Mark Andrews. He was outsnapped once again by Isaiah Likely, who has outsnapped Andrews in five of the Ravens’ six games this season. If I had Andrews in a redraft league, I would try to find anyone at all who’s willing to take a flier on Andrews, and then work the waiver wire for a week-to-week alternative.
Cincinnati Bengals: Chase Brown Finally Outsnaps Zack Moss
For the first time this season, Chase Brown outsnapped Zack Moss with a snap rate of 62% (33), more than Moss’ snap rate of 45% (24). The extra snaps also helped Brown out-touch Moss with 12 touches to Moss’ 7.
Cleveland Browns: David Njoku May End Up Carrying the Load Without Amari Cooper
After seeing just 42% of the snaps in his return to the lineup, David Njoku nearly doubled his snap count from Week 5 and saw 74% of the snaps (42) — leading Browns receivers with 7 targets and 5 receptions. While Njoku has shown that he can definitely lead the Browns receiving group after an outstanding end to his 2023 campaign, it should definitely be noted that his best games were with Joe Flacco under center and not Deshaun Watson.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Jaylen Warren Back, Significantly Cuts Najee Harris’ Snap Rate
After missing the last two weeks with a knee injury, Jaylen Warren returned to the Steelers lineup and reduced Najee Harris’ snap rate from 74% (43) to 46% (31). Even with the reduced snap rate, Harris had his best game of the season, getting 16 touches for 122 yards and a touchdown. It’s unlikely Harris will be able to sustain that type of production, but it’s possible that Russell Wilson taking over at QB will help get the receivers going, which in turn, should give Harris and Warren more room to maneuver out of the backfield.
AFC South
Houston Texans: Tank Dell Finally Fulfills Some Promise
In Houston’s first game without Nico Collins, Tank Dell had his best game of the season — leading the team with 7 catches on 9 targets for 57 yards and a touchdown. The addition of Stefon Diggs has limited Dell’s opportunities as a whole, but with Collins out, he’s going to naturally get more attention from his quarterback, C.J. Stroud. In fact, even though Xavier Hutchinson and John Metchie III both saw time on the field, they did not see any targets while Dell and Diggs were targeted 16 times for 13 catches, 134 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Indianapolis Colts: Tyler Goodson May Remain 3rd-Down Back
With Jonathan Taylor’s return looming and Anthony Richardson likely back in the saddle at QB, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tyler Goodson continue to see time on the field on third down and passing situations. This past Sunday against the Titans, Goodson caught 4 balls on 5 targets for 14 yards, while Trey Sermon didn’t see any targets.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Brian Thomas Jr. Leads Jaguars WRs in Snaps for 1st Time
The Jaguars may very well be the worst team in the NFL, but being a bad team can certainly open a lot of opportunities in the passing game when the team is playing catch up. Brian Thomas Jr. has looked great this season, but hadn’t seen more snaps than both Gabe Davis or Christian Kirk in any game this season — that is, until Sunday in London when he saw 79% of the snaps (49). While both Kirk and Davis have had their moments this season, outside of Evan Engram, I would think Thomas is the Jaguars receiver you want on your roster.
Tennessee Titans: Calvin Ridley Targeted 8 Times, Only 2 Catchable
Calvin Ridley led the Titans in targets with 8, but he ended his day with zero catches. Ridley was rightfully upset after the game, and especially so considering only 2 of his 8 targets were deemed catchable per FTN StatsHub. The Titans schedule does not get any easier in the coming weeks, as they will have to face the Bills and Lions away from home. While I’m certain QB Will Levis will try his best to get Ridley the ball, I don’t necessarily like Ridley’s chances given the opposition.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Devaughn Vele Likely the WR2 Without Josh Reynolds
I preface this with the fact that you probably don’t want any Broncos receivers in your lineup, but it should be noted that Devaughn Vele returned to the lineup and saw immediate impact — catching 4 balls on 6 targets for 78 yards. While he saw less snaps than Troy Franklin, he doubled Franklin in both receptions and targets. Combine that with his outstanding Week 1 performance, I would definitely want Vele over any other Broncos receiver not named Courtland Sutton.
Kansas City Chiefs: Bye Week
Las Vegas Raiders: Tre Tucker the Worst WR1 in the NFL
Jakobi Meyers was ruled out for the Raiders game against the Steelers, and with Davante Adams remaining out, we saw Tre Tucker see a whopping 95% of the snaps (60). Unfortunately for him, he was just running around the field without much purpose, because he ended his 60 snaps without a catch on 2 targets, neither catchable. I know opportunity is sometimes the biggest attribute you want from your fantasy players, but when it comes to this situation with the Raiders, I would probably leave Tucker out of lineups if you can help it.
Los Angeles Chargers: Kimani Vidal in Prime Position for the Rest of the Season
The 2024 Chargers have a very run-oriented offensive scheme under head coach Jim Harbaugh, and it has revived the career of J.K. Dobbins. With Gus Edwards on IR, and Kimani Vidal jumping Hassan Haskins on the depth chart, I would want Vidal on my roster regardless of whether Dobbins is on it as well. The former Ravens tandem of Dobbins and Edwards both have a long track record of injuries, and even if Dobbins happens to stay healthy, I would imagine that Vidal’s role as the RB2 will continue to increase as the season progresses. This past Sunday against the Broncos, he proved to me a significant threat in the passing attach, catching 2 balls for 40 yards and a touchdown. It should also be noted that Edwards, through four games, only had 1 catch for 2 yards.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys Have No Trust in Their Run Game
The Cowboys had 69 offensive snaps in their pitiful loss to the Lions, and only ran the ball 13 times. Rico Dowdle was coming off an outstanding game against the Steelers and ended his day with just 5 carries for 25 yards while Ezekiel Elliott, somehow, someway, got 8 carries and ran for just 17 yards. On top of that, with Hunter Luepke taking the majority of third-down snaps as the lone RB and basically declaring to the opposition that they aren’t going to run the ball, the Cowboys RB situation doesn’t appear to be a situation you want to bother with for fantasy purposes if you can help it.
New York Giants: Daniel Jones Just Isn’t a Jalin Hyatt Guy
Jalin Hyatt saw 81% of the snaps (64), largely due to Malik Nabers remaining out of the lineup and only ended the game with 1 catch on 4 targets (only 1 of those targets was catchable). It’s very clear that Hyatt is the last option on the field for Daniel Jones, who rarely targets anyone outside of his first read.
Philadelphia Eagles: Jahan Dotson Should Be Dropped in All Leagues
Jahan Dotson wasn’t given many touches with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith out of the lineup. With Brown and Smith back into the lineup, the Eagles chose to run more 12-personnel than usual, which led to Dotson seeing just 35% of the snaps (22). What makes this even crazier is that the Eagles kept running 12-personnel even though Dallas Goedert was ruled out of the game early in the first quarter.
Washington Commanders: Noah Brown Climbing up the Depth Chart
In Noah Brown’s last two games, he has seen more snaps than any Commanders receiver not named Terry McLaurin Sunday against the Ravens, he saw 64% of the snaps (38 snaps), catching 4 balls on 8 targets for 58 yards. His 8 targets actually led the team and likely signifies his importance to Washington’s passing attack as the games get more important in the coming weeks.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: D’Andre Swift Sees All of the Red Zone Carries
Caleb Williams and the Bears put together a master class in the red zone against the Jaguars, and a big part of that was D’Andre Swift, who had the team’s only red zone carries, including a goal-line carry from the half-yard line. It was concerning earlier in the year with Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson both getting a lot of work at the goal line, but with Swift’s production on the uptick, his role at the goal line appears to be safe.
Detroit Lions: David Montgomery Makes His Limited Snaps Count
You probably know David Montgomery is among the league leaders at the RB position. He is so impactful on the field and can get those extra yards after contact that seemingly no one else can. But from a usage standpoint, it is a little alarming to see that Montgomery has only seen 21 touches in each of his last two games. Sure, this last game against the Cowboys was a huge blowout, but Montgomery has actually only outsnapped Jahmyr Gibbs once this season. While the usage rates suggest that Montgomery might actually be a “sell high” candidate, it’s hard to ignore the impact he in the little usage he does get.
Green Bay Packers: Jayden Reed Outsnapped by Both Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson
While the consensus probably identifies Jayden Reed as the best WR in the Packers WR room, it has always been a bit concerning to see his snap counts are always below Romeo Doubs. For the fifth time this season, Reed was outsnapped by Doubs. Like David Montgomery, Reed is definitely a player who makes significant impact in his limited touches. It’ll be interesting to see if his usage gets bumped up at some point this season as the divisional games in the treacherous NFC North begin to ramp up.
Minnesota Vikings: Bye Week
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Falcons Continue to Play the Same 3 Receivers Throughout the Game
Since Week 2, the Falcons have rolled out the trio of Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud for at least 83% of the snaps. Even with KhaDarel Hodge’s amazing walkoff touchdown against the Buccaneers, Hodge only took a total of 8 offensive snaps against the Panthers. McCloud is a name that appears to be consistently on the waivers. If you’re looking for someone to stream on a bye week in PPR leagues, McCloud is someone who can provide a very high floor for a waiver pick up. He has caught at least 3 balls in five of his six games this season.
Carolina Panthers: Chuba Hubbard Virtually a One-Man Show at RB
Chuba Hubbard is coming off his highest snap rate of the season. He saw 82% of the snaps (54) in the Panthers’ loss to the Falcons. It should be noted that the Panthers have just activated rookie Jonathon Brooks’ practice window. Hubbard’s volume should be safe for the next few weeks, but all bets are off once Brooks is at full strength. Carolina spent a second-round pick on Brooks for a reason, so he’ll undoubtedly get an opportunity at some point this season.
New Orleans Saints: Bub Means Might Have a Significant Role with Spencer Rattler at QB
Chris Olave was knocked out early in the game against the Buccaneers. Instead of giving Cedrick Wilson Jr. or Mason Tipton more snaps, the Saints decided to give all of Olave’s intended snaps to Bub Means Means proceeded to tie Alvin Kamara with his 5 catches on 8 targets, but he also caught a nice touchdown pass from rookie QB Spencer Rattler. I think it’s fairly safe to assume Rattler has likely worked a lot more with Means than the other veteran receivers, and it might naturally lead to more chemistry between the two.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sean Tucker Might Be the Real Deal
With Rachaad White out, most assumed that it would be the Bucky Irving show throughout Tampa Bay’s divisional clash against the Saints. While Irving performed admirably, there were a lot of fantasy points left on the board simply because they all went to third-string RB Sean Tucker. While Tucker saw far fewer snaps than Irving (29 to Irving’s 49), he actually got more touches (17 to Irving’s 16), and was able to walk away with 192 all-purpose yards and 2 touchdowns. Most importantly, he actually looked like had a little burst of speed that we don’t necessarily see from either White or Irving. If White remains out of the lineup, it appears Tucker should be a relatively safe flex option moving forward.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: Trey McBride Has Been Unleashed
With Marvin Harrison Jr. out for most of the game, Kyler Murray’s safety net was definitely Trey McBride, who caught all 8 of his targets for 96 yards. That’s the second straight game where McBride has led the Cardinals in receptions. While there’s been hesitation from Kyler to lock in on McBride throughout the game, hopefully having games like these will be the light bulb Kyler needs to count on McBride more often and not just because Harrison isn’t on the field.
Los Angeles Rams: Bye Week
San Francisco 49ers: With Jordan Mason Out, No Clear Leader out of the Backfield
It’s very possible that Jordan Mason misses Sunday’s Super Bowl rematch against the Chiefs. Some might assume that Isaac Guerendo will surely get the majority of snaps as RB1, but it should be noted that Guerendo only outsnapped RB3 Patrick Taylor Jr. by 1 snap and Deebo Samuel Sr. saw his usual workload out of the backfield. Sure, Guerendo definitely outplayed Taylor, but we can’t be too confident that Guerendo will end up seeing as much action as Mason has throughout the season.
Seattle Seahawks: DK Metcalf Leads Seahawks WRs in Targets for 1st Time This Season
DK Metcalf saw 11 targets against the 49ers, the first time this season he has outright led the team in targets. With that said, both Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba continue to be viable options every week, and it’s largely because of how often the Seahawks have been throwing the ball. In fact, no other quarterback has thrown as many passes as Geno Smith this season.
