Week 14 lames: Sanders struggles to continue against Saints

Each week the Noise highlights 10 somewhat un-obvious names who he believes will leave egg on his face. To qualify, each player must be started in at least 50% of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here (Thresholds – QB: 19 fantasy points, RB: 12 fantasy points, WR: 11 fantasy points, TE: 10 fantasy points). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 14 Lames on Twitter @NoisyHuevos.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

(83% started in Yahoo; DK DFS: $7,100)
Matchup: vs. PIT
Vegas line/Total: BUF -2, 46.5

In the drafting, quarterbacks — even ones with natural arm talent — are no sure thing. Some become Patrick Mahomes, generational passers who collect rings and various trophies. Others become JaMarcus Russell, bust list staples who drive once ardent believers to the “purple drank.” To most draftniks, Allen was expected to land somewhere in the middle. In Year 3, however, he’s far closer to the former than the latter. Once admonished for his inaccuracy, the former Wyoming Cowboy has developed into quite the sharpshooter. He’s fired off numerous passes square on the numbers, evidenced by his QB5 standing in adjusted completion percentage. The strides made are eye opening. His demolition of San Francisco last Monday was Exhibit A.

This week, however, Allen will be pushed to the limit. Pittsburgh, the second-most blitz-happy defense in the league, is sure to ceaselessly attack the pocket. Currently QB35 in clean pocket percentage, he’s sure to feel the ratcheted heat, unlike what he experienced against the Niners. That combined with Pittsburgh’s suffocating pass defense, which has allowed 6.6 yards per attempt, 225.1 passing yards per game, 1.4 passing touchdowns and the second-fewest fantasy points to the position, imply an underwhelming performance at the worst possible time.

Fearless forecast: 257 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 2 turnovers, 22 rushing yards, 18.5 fantasy points

Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

(70%; $6,200)
Matchup: vs. NO
Vegas line/Total: NO -7.5, 44.5

Cranked through the meat grinder by incensed Eagles fans calling into local sports talk stations, Doug Pederson has his cheeks firmly pressed against the hot seat. His once-loyal zealots have turned on him, resorting to name calling and various other colorful epithets to express their outward disdain. It’s warranted. The cycling of quarterbacks and fallout from numerous downturns has the Eagles on the outside looking in for a playoff spot in the worst division in professional football. Blame the offensive line all you want, but the commitment to Carson Wentz, the NFL leader in boneheaded mistakes, is a fireable offense. Mercifully turning to Jalen Hurts this week could save the offense, but it’s likely too little too late.

For Sanders, Philly’s turnstile line combined with Pederson’s refusal to completely stop the RB revolving door has crushed his fantasy value. Though quite respectable in YAC per attempt (3.29, RB11) and missed tackle rate (21.2%), he’s crumpled like a soda can from repeated swarmings. Only sporadically used in the pass game and often poached at the goal line, he’s become almost completely untrustworthy. This week against a rigid New Orleans D, he’s a flex option at best. The Saints have surrendered just 3.45 yards per carry, 93.4 total yards per game, five combined TDs and the fewest fantasy points to RBs this season. LB Demario Davis alone has accounted for 22 tackles for loss against the run. Ditch him for Wayne Gallman (vs. ARZ), J.K. Dobbins (at CLV) or Jamaal Williams (at DET).

Fearless forecast: 15 carries, 48 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 12 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.0 fantasy points

Devontae Booker, RB, Las Vegas Raiders

(51%; $5,300)
Matchup: vs. IND
Vegas line/Total: IND -2.5, 51

Socks and underwear. Every year, mom would spend an inordinate amount of time carefully wrapping undergarments in a box enveloped with perfectly folded colored paper. What a waste. When the gift was opened a sarcastic smile always adorned the face.

When it was announced last week that Josh Jacobs would be deactivated against the Jets, excitement for Booker throughout fantasyland promptly spiked. He was pegged as a savior, a volume RB with a perceived excellent matchup versus the Jets. Buyers didn’t grasp New York’s inflexibility defending the run and the fact the elevated backup was about as stimulating as receiving a pair of polka-dotted boxers from the woman who birthed you. In the end, he finished with 51 yards on 17 touches, failing to find the end zone. Most craptastic, he tallied 1.88 yards after contact per attempt, which ranked RB38 for the week. Puke.

Jon Gruden commented Monday he was “not confident” Jacobs will return this week against Indy. If the former Alabama slammer is deemed unavailable, don’t go back to the same Booker well. It’s overflowing with arsenic. Yes, the Colts have unscrewed versus the run. Over the past five weeks, they’ve surrendered 4.5 yards per carry, 132.0 total yards per game, eight combined touchdowns and the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. Still, the former Broncos third wheel is exactly what he should be considered, a promoted secondary option on par with Kalen Ballage.

Fearless forecast: 15 carries, 55 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 9 receiving yards, 7.4 fantasy points

DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins

(60%; $6,100)
Matchup: vs. KC
Vegas line/Total: KC -7, 49.5

When Brian Flores made the executive decision to bench Ryan Fitzpatrick in favor of Tua Tagovailoa during Miami’s Week 5 bye week, pundits of all walks immediately questioned the move. Flash forward to Week 14 and the same “experts” are still baffled, this flaming nincompoop included. The reasoning is logical — stockpiled draft picks, a veteran passer who was always a stopgap only, evaluate your top overall pick for the future. The timing, however, was entirely puzzling. With the Dolphins in striking distance of scoring its first division title in a dozen years, it would seem sensible, to any prudent individual, sticking with an efficient playoff-experienced veteran passer is the advisable move. And this is why this still flaming nincompoop is merely a fantasy sportswriter.

Parker’s numbers simply aren’t the same with Tua tossing passes in his general direction. The evidence is stark. With Tua, he’s caught just 54.2% of intended looks totaling 13 receptions for 103 yards and a TD, good for a WR51 in PPR. Kerplunk. Unreliable, he should be placed on the pine this week against an underappreciated Kansas City secondary. His projected primary assignment, Charvarious Ward, has yielded a 109.0 passer rating, but has only given up a 57.5 catch percentage. All members combined, the Chiefs have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Explore alternatives.

Fearless forecast: 4 receptions, 39 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 5.9 fantasy points

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals

(98%; $7,600)
Matchup: at NYG
Vegas line/Total: ARZ -2.5, 45

Hopkins owns Spider-Man hands, an exotic sports car and a boatload of double-digit fantasy point performances, seven this year to be exact. He, however, like any other perceived “stud,” doesn't possess full immunity from contracting suck syndrome any given week. In fact, he’s fallen short of the 10-point threshold in 0.5 PPR leagues five times. A gargantuan target share matched with a sizable yards per route run rate, contested catch percentage and YAC usually leads to a profitable result, but sometimes the matchup undercuts expectations.

Sleeping on the Giants isn’t recommended. Blake Martinez and company generate considerable push along the front line, stamping out the run while exerting heavy pocket pressure. Their defensive traits could lead to measurable ground gains for the always opportunistic Dachshund of the Desert, but vertically, moving the chains is likely to be more arduous. On the year, the G-Men have conceded 7.3 pass yards per attempt, the fourth-fewest air yards per game and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per contest to WRs. CB James Bradberry, Hopkins’ projected coverage tagalong, has given up a mere 55.2 catch percentage, 69.6 passer rating and 0.85 yards per snap this season. With a price tag on par with a pair of AirPods Max, he’s circumventable.

Fearless forecast: 6 receptions, 69 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 9.9 fantasy points

Bonus lames (over 50% started)

RB: Damien Harris, NE (Line: LAR -5.5; DK: $5,300) — In my best Daryl Hall singing voice, “Whoa, here he comes. Watch out boy, he’ll chew you up. Whoa here he comes, Aaron Donald is a maneater.” The league leader in applied pressures and sacks is an immovable tour de force. This season he and his Rams cohorts have surrendered the seventh-fewest fantasy points to RBs, giving up 3.89 yards per carry and 78.3 rush yards per game. No RB since Raheem Mostert in Week 6 has crossed the 60-yard mark on the ground against them. The Patriots are clicking at the right time, witnessed in their suplexing of Justin Herbert and the Chargers last week. Harris, who’s tallied 3.10 YAC per attempt, is one reason for the resurgence. Still, the matchup is daunting. Avoid at all costs. (FF: 14-46-0, 4.6 fantasy points)

RB: Kareem Hunt, CLV (Line: BAL -1; DK: $5,000) — Hunter-gatherers who ardently worship the Cleveland running back may want to forage for a proper replacement. He’s a name brand, but in this one-and-done portion of the fantasy season, it’s imperative to strip away the superficial, focus on potential volume and dodge unsavory matchups. This week, Hunt and the Browns welcome everyone’s favorite primetime team, Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed 4.30 yards per carry, but only 126.6 total yards per game. The complementary back tallied a resourceful 81 yards against the division rival in Week 1, but compiling only 46.7 total yards per game on 13.7 touches per contest the past three weeks, he’s dicey even at the flex in 12-team and deeper formats. (FF: 10-43-0-2-12-0, 6.5 fantasy points)

WR: Robert Woods, LAR (Line: LAR -5.5; DK: $6,700) — The New England Patriots, written off by countless mainstream and betting pundits alike, are starting to find their groove. Oh, that crafty meatball sub-consuming Bill Belichick. Last week’s utter annihilation of the L.A. Chargers was a warning shot to the rest of the league. Wunderkind Sean McVay is sure to launch a successful counterattack, but Woods could underachieve. Stephon Gilmore generally receives the most credit, but his secondary cohort J.C. Jackson is more unflinching in coverage. This season, he’s posted a 53.4 passer rating and 50.9% catch percentage allowed. Woods has excreted fire since Week 8, eclipsing 80 receiving yards and seven receptions in four games. However, in what should be a low-scoring affair, he crashes back down to Earth. (FF: 5-55-0-9, 8.9 fantasy points)

WR: Deebo Samuel, SF (Line: SF -3.5; DK: $6,400) — Samuel, the preeminent YAC machine in the league, chews up green grass with the speed and efficiency of a John Deere minus the governor. His YAC per reception mark, tops in the NFL, currently outdistances No. 2 in the category, A.J. Brown, 12.15 to 7.84. His burly lower frame and shoulder-lowering mentality explain why he’s so damn tough to wrangle after the catch. Creatively deployed by Kyle Shanahan on designed screens, jet sweeps and crossers, he typically maximizes every opportunity. This Sunday, however, could be tough sledding. Squaring off against the Fighting Footballs, Samuel is no lock for anything more than WR3 production in 12-team leagues. Washington has yielded 6.7 yards per attempt, the third-fewest fantasy points to WRs and the sixth-fewest air yards. Also applying pressure on 24.4% of opponent snaps, Nick Mullens to Samuel could be quite the chore. (FF: 5-57-0-11, 8.2 fantasy points)

TE: Zach Ertz, PHI (Line: NO -7.5; DK: $3,700) — It only took 14 weeks for Pederson to realize Wentz’s abominable play isn’t worth staking his coaching reputation on. Ask any Philly fan and they’ll not mince words, Pederson, despite architecting a championship for the city not long ago, deserves the boot. Whether or not Hurts materializes, in critics’ minds, isn’t enough to save the skipper’s neck. Tight end reeks of rotten flatulence and Ertz did see action on 59.4% of team snaps last week hauling in two receptions for 31 yards (on four targets), but the unknowns suggest a resurgence isn’t likely. The matchup, too, isn’t conducive to favorable results. The Saints rank inside the top-third in fewest fantasy points surrendered to the position. Instead, consider alternatives like Jordan Akins (at CHI), Logan Thomas (at SF) or Dalton Schultz (at CIN). (FF: 2-27-0, 3.7 fantasy points)