Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We are getting deeper and deeper into the NFL regular season, and there have been ongoing changes throughout each team’s roster. I’ll take a close look at each team’s usage statistics and highlight a key stat that has fantasy football significance.
Fantasy Football Usage Report Through Week 10
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Curtis Samuel Sees Highest Snap Rate with Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper Out
Curtis Samuel took 89% of the snaps (66) in the Bills’ win against the Colts. He turned it into 4 catches on 4 catchable targets (8 total) for 35 yards. While it’s nice to see the Bills utilize their WR depth, we can’t really count on Samuel to see that type of usage against with both Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper expected to return in the near future. With that said, Coleman is definitely out until after the Week 12 bye week, so if Cooper also sits out Week 11, you basically are free to stream Samuel as a bye week replacement for Week 11 before you drop him in Week 12.
Miami Dolphins: Raheem Mostert Outsnapped by Jaylen Wright
After defeating the Rams Monday night, the Dolphins appear to think they have a real chance to finish their season strong and get into the playoffs. Even so, it should be noted that Raheem Mostert only saw 15% of the snaps (8) and was outsnapped by RB3 Jaylen Wright by one. The Dolphins are continuing to do what they can to get De’Von Achane the ball. If you have Mostert on your roster, it would behoove you to look for some viable alternatives with Mostert seeing less usage than we probably all anticipated with the team at full strength.
New England Patriots: Hunter Henry Sees Only 1 Catchable Target Against the Bears
Even though Hunter Henry ended Week 10 with the second-most routes run on the Patriots roster, he ended the game with just one catchable target. It should be noted that the Patriots were maintaining a lead throughout their game against the Bears, which is a situation they’ve never really dealt with this season. There’s reason to be alarmed by the lack of usage, but it’d be very surprising to see the Patriots in a situation where they lead a game coast-to-coast like they did against the Bears.
New York Jets: No Reason to Play Any Jets Not Named Breece Hall, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson
Aaron Rodgers continues to force feed the ball to his studs, and that means no one on the roster is getting a viable number of touches outside of Breece Hall, Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson. Unless the snap counts change once the Jets are truly out of playoff contention, there’s absolutely no reason you should be playing any other Jets outside of the three studs.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Mark Andrews Sees Highest Snap Rate of the Season in Isaiah Likely’s Absence
With Isaiah Likely inactive due to a hamstring injury, Mark Andrews finished Week 10 with his highest snap rate of the season — seeing 87% of the snaps (55) and turning it into 6 catches on 7 targets for 68 yards and a touchdown. This is absolutely the type of usage numbers that we’ve been wanting to see from Andrews throughout the season, but it might be something that will only last as long as Likely is out of the lineup. Also, like I’ve said in the past, the Ravens offense is centered on their run-game so if they get out to a big lead, you can’t expect any of the Ravens receivers to see too many targets.
Cincinnati Bengals: Mike Gesicki Finally the Clear TE1
It might have taken Erick All Jr.’s season ending injury to make it happen, but Mike Gesicki is finally looking like the Bengals TE1. Gesicki saw a season-high 71% of the snaps (58) against the Ravens and also caught 4 balls on 4 catchable targets (9 total) for 30 yards. Tanner Hudson had a big game as the TE3, but he only ran 22 routes compared to Gesicki’s 44. Gesicki has been, by far, the Bengals most productive TE in the passing game and has been the only TE on the roster to see more than 1 contested target this season from QB Joe Burrow
Cleveland Browns: Bye Week
Pittsburgh Steelers: Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren Nearly Have Even Split in Snaps
Jaylen Warren looked impressive in Pittsburgh’s upset win against the Commanders, and it likely led to him seeing more snaps than usual. Warren saw 45% of the snaps (35), just two fewer than what Najee Harris saw throughout the game. The Steelers have always been at their best with both Harris and Warren making significant contributions, and I would imagine that the Steelers will continue to use both backs as long as they’re healthy.
AFC South
Houston Texans: John Metchie III Has Chance to Make a Fantasy Impact
Yes, Nico Collins will probably be back in the next week or two, but after an impressive performance against the Lions Sunday night, I feel we can safely say that John Metchie III is, at the very least, among the top three wide receivers on the Texans roster. Xavier Hutchinson continues to see more snaps than Metchie and even Tank Dell, but he has shown very little impact. When Collins is back, I wouldn’t be surprised if Metchie continues to see a similar snap share. He ended his Sunday seeing 65% of the snaps (44) and turned those opportunities into 5 catches on 6 targets for 74 yards and a touchdown.
Indianapolis Colts: With Michael Pittman Jr. Inactive, Adonai Mitchell Leads Team in Snaps
Adonai Mitchell has been the clear WR4 for the Colts throughout the season, but with Michael Pittman Jr. out, Mitchell got a huge boost in snaps and ended up seeing a whopping 94% of the snaps (60). He was very impressive in all of his opportunities — catching all 6 of his targets for 71 yards. With Pittman’s return to the lineup inevitable, and Anthony Richardson back as the QB1, it’s highly unlikely for Mitchell to see the type of usage he saw Week 10 again this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Tank Bigsby Gets Only 2 Touches Due to an Ankle Injury
Travis Etienne Jr. ended with 68% of the snaps (30) compared to Tank Bigsby’s 23% (10). Part of this was due to an ankle injury that took Bigsby out of the game. While Bigsby did eventually return to the field, it’ll be interesting to see if he’ll be seeing his usual workload in Week 11 against the Lions. The Jaguars do have a Week 12 bye week, so it might make sense for Bigsby to get the extra week of rest with the hope of being at full strength in Week 13.
Tennessee Titans: Tyjae Spears Makes Return and Nearly Matches Tony Pollard in Snaps
After a three-game absence due to a lingering hamstring injury, Tyjae Spears returned to the Titans lineup and took 46% of the snaps (25) in a full timeshare with Tony Pollard. Spears ended the game with 10 touches for 51 all-purpose yards, which was right behind Pollard’s 13 touches for 63 all-purpose yards. With the Titans having no real shot at a postseason bid, I would imagine Spears will continue to see significant usage.
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Cautiously Optimistic About Audric Estime Going Forward
There’s plenty of speculation out there regarding Denver’s running back situation after Audric Estime ended his Sunday seeing a team-leading 45% of the snaps (26) compared to the usual RB1, Javonte Williams, who finished with 29% of the snaps (17). Estime looked fine, getting 53 yards on 14 carries, and it even led to Sean Payton saying that Estime will “continue to get more reps.” I would take that comment with a grain of salt considering Payton doesn’t really have a long track record of sticking to his word with these types of comments. I can see Estime being a part of the RB time share, but I just don’t buy him being the RB1 for the rest of the season.
Kansas City Chiefs: Travis Kelce Is 100% Back
Travis Kelce’s lack of touches to start the season was extremely concerning for those who have rostered him. But after three straight weeks of 12-plus targets, we can confirm that Kelce is 100% back. On top of that, he continues to be the No. 1 red zone target — snagging two touchdowns on three end zone targets over least last three weeks.
Las Vegas Raiders: Bye Week
Los Angeles Chargers: Gus Edwards Gets Crazy Touches in Return to the Lineup
Gus Edwards got touches in 66.7% of his snaps in his return to the lineup. It’s a bit perplexing to see him get so many touches coming off an ankle injury while Kimani Vidal barely got any touches in his absence, but if anything, it shows that Edwards might end up getting enough touches moving forward to be fantasy viable. It would make a lot of sense since J.K. Dobbins hasn’t exactly seen this much volume in a long, long time, and the Chargers will hopefully need Dobbins at full strength to make their playoff run.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Ezekiel Elliott’s Return Takes Away Snaps from Rico Dowdle
Even though Rico Dowdle is the clear RB1 for the Cowboys, it’s still tough for those who have rostered Dowdle to see Ezekiel Elliott continue to see important snaps. Even though Elliott only saw 22% of the snaps (13), he somehow got touches in 6 of those snaps. If there’s one change that needs to be made, it would have to be Zeke getting far less touches. Anyone watching these Cowboys games can see it, but we can’t be too certain if anything changes by season’s end.
New York Giants: Tyrone Tracy Jr. Seeing Elite Usage
Perhaps it’s due to the lack of trust in Daniel Jones at QB, but Tyrone Tracy Jr. has not only supplanted Devin Singletary on the depth chart, he’s getting an elite amount of usage. Against the Panthers, he saw 80% of the snaps (60) and ended the game with 19 touches for 104 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. The Giants have been playing from behind virtually every game, so the gamescripts haven’t exactly been too kind to Tracy. It’ll be interesting to see if the Giants pull the trigger on a change at QB to Drew Lock, and whether that’ll make much of a difference to their performance.
Philadelphia Eagles: Grant Calcaterra’s Usage Takes Big Hit with Dallas Goedert’s Return
Dallas Goedert made his return to the Eagles lineup after missing three weeks with a hamstring injury. While the Eagles still ran a lot of two-TE sets to the extent where Goedert ended with 63% of the snaps (43) and Grant Calcaterra saw 62% (42). Still, Goedert ran a route on 19 of those snaps while Calcaterra ran a round on just 9.
Washington Commanders: Noah Brown Leads the WRs in Targets in Back-to-Back Weeks
While Terry McLaurin might get most of the accolades, Noah Brown is slowly getting more and more trust from Jayden Daniels. He has led the Commanders wide receivers in targets in back-to-back weeks and appears to have locked in the WR2 spot.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams Not Giving Receivers Many Catchable Targets
The stats may show that the Bears WR trio of Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and DJ Moore each saw 6 targets in their loss to the Patriots, but in reality, Allen saw 5 catchable targets, Odunze saw 4 and Moore only saw 3. Caleb Williams isn’t really giving his talented receivers a chance to make plays. With Shane Waldron getting ousted as the Bears OC, it’ll be interesting to see if there are any significant changes made to give Williams some more set plays to get his receivers activated.
Detroit Lions: Jameson Williams Shows Huge Impact in Return
A big reason why the Lions were able to come back against the Texans in Week 10 was the return of Jameson Williams, who provides a viable deep threat that stretches the field. Jamo’s 5 targets were more targets than Lions receiver not named Amon-Ra St. Brown saw in his absence in both games combined, and all three of his catches were extremely impactful. With Sam LaPorta’s status for Week 11 unknown, don’t be surprised if Jamo gets a big increase in target share against the Jaguars.
Green Bay Packers: Bye Week
Minnesota Vikings: Cam Akers the RB2, Probably Won’t See as Many Snaps as Last Week
For the second week in a row, Cam Akers saw the second-most snaps from the RB position. Against the Jaguars, he actually saw a season-high 31% of the snaps (26), which included touches in 14 of those snaps for 47 all-purpose yards. There was concern that Aaron Jones had suffered a significant injury, but Jones actually just missed snaps because he needed to get carted off to get a quick X-ray on the other side of the stadium. His rib injury appears to be minor, but he is listed as day-to-day. If you have Jones, Akers is probably worth a stash, but it doesn’t look like he’s going to be worth a standalone play.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Tyler Allgeier Vultured by Bijan Robinson
Somehow, Tyler Allgeier got vultured by Bijan Robinson. Allgeier got three straight goal line carries but fell short of the end zone. With the ball at the half-yard line, the Falcons gave it to Robinson on fourth-down, and Bijan was finally able to get the ball into the end zone. It should be noted that both Robinson and Allgeier are getting a significant amount of volume in the red zone this season and Allgeier’s six goal-line carries this season is currently a slight edge over Robinson’s five.
Carolina Panthers: Jalen Coker Gets 88% of the Snaps, But Still Some Problems
Jalen Coker ended Week 10 with his highest usage of the season. He saw 88% of the snaps (53) while also getting a team-leading 8 targets from Bryce Young. It’s very clear that Coker has become one of Young’s most trusted receivers, and if his snaps remain this high, he could be in position to be a league winner. That said, it’s hard to feel too confident with Adam Thielen’s return looming.
New Orleans Saints: Mason Tipton Sees the Most Snaps from WR Position This Season
After seeing 55% of the snaps (29), Mason Tipton has seen more snaps from the WR position than any other Saints wide receiver. With Tipton, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kevin Austin Jr. as the top three WRs on the depth chart, the Saints are running a lot of multiple-TE sets. Tipton and MVS actually both saw 55% of the snaps in the upset against the Falcons. I know MVS appears to be one of the hot waiver wire pickups right now, but I definitely would refrain from spending a high amount for him. This offense is going to continue to run through Alvin Kamara and perhaps even Taysom Hill as long as Chris Olave remains out.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sean Tucker Should No Longer Be on Your Fantasy Roster
After Sean Tucker’s huge performance Week 6 against the Saints, he ended up being a popular waiver wire target once it was “confirmed” by head coach Todd Bowles that he would go with the hot hand on a game-by-game basis. Unfortunately for Tucker, I think that scenario has completely gone out the window. Tucker didn’t take a snap in Tampa Bay’s last-second loss to the 49ers. Even without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Buccaneers are going to lean heavily on Rachaad White and Bucky Irving to carry the load. Unless one of them gets injured, there’s no logical reason why you would want to roster Tucker at this point.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: Cardinals WRs Aren’t Getting Many Targets
As I’ve mentioned before, the Cardinals’ offense needs a hefty dose of James Conner in order to succeed. With that said, the passing game has taken a back seat — in each of the last two weeks, no Cardinals receiver has been targeted more than five times. If you have guys like Marvin Harrison Jr. or Trey McBride on your roster, all you can really do is live with the volatility. If you have anyone else not named Kyler Murray or James Conner, you probably should consider dropping them for better alternatives.
Los Angeles Rams: Davis Allen Surpasses Colby Parkinson on the Depth Chart
Colby Parkinson has basically been benched, seeing a season-low 16% of the snaps (11) in the Rams’ loss to the Dolphins Monday. Davis Allen has led the tight ends in snap share the last two weeks and ended up seeing 80% of the snaps (56) and getting more targets than anyone not named Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua.
San Francisco 49ers: Christian McCaffrey Going to Be Full Strength for Your Playoff Run
After missing the first eight weeks of the season, Christian McCaffrey saw 88% of the snaps (56) in his return from IR. Amazingly, his 7 targets were more than double the targets that Jordan Mason saw in any other week this season. It’s clear that McCaffrey immediately becomes Brock Purdy’s No. 1 target, although it should be noted that Jauan Jennings ended up leading the team with 11 targets — just one off his season-high 12 targets against the Rams in Week 3.
