SuperDraft NFL breakdown for Week 7

Welcome to the weekly breakdown for SuperDraft DFS Multiplier contests. 

Here’s a quick primer and strategy guide.

Each week, I’ll provide a slate overview and recommended plays at each position.

Week 6 Recap

Each week, I’ll kick things off reviewing the winning lineup of SuperDraft’s largest GPP, the Red Zone.

The Red Zone is a $20 entry contest where one can enter up to 150 times. This week, the contest capped at 11,500 teams and the top prize is $40,000. The Gunslinger typically has about 200 entries in the contest, and we can keep those builds a bit closer to the ground like we’re building for cash (but with at least one stack and some correlations).

Congrats to Brad Traylor for taking down $40k in the Red Zone with the least correlated winner of the season. Brad had the Joe Burrow/Tee Higgins combo, though Higgins did very little (8.85 points). Ditto with Kadarius Toney (9.44 points), who was on his way to another smash game with a hot first quarter before reaggravating his ankle injury. It didn’t matter as Brad compiled a group of studs who went off, including an 8.5% Noah Fant and slate-winning CeeDee Lamb, whose overtime touchdown brought the bag home for Brad.

Color me not at all surprised as our one-and-only TwoGun won the Gunslinger for the second time in six weeks. TwoGun went with chalky guys at running back and flex (Darrell Henderson – 30.3%, Khalil Herbert – 56.8%, Chuba Hubbard – 41.3%) but diversified with a bunch of sub-5% guys who did well. Both Aaron Rodgers and Adam Thielen were rostered by less than 2% of teams in the Gunslinger.

Note that both winning teams had average team multipliers of 1.5x or higher, boosted by rookie Khalil Herbert. It took 31 more SD points to beat the field of 11,500 in the Red Zone. The average roster percentage of the Red Zone winner (18.4%) was under 20% for the fourth straight week. Since roster percentage projections are not available anywhere, we have to do our best to make assumptions on whether players will be chalky or not. That is usually easy to do simply by following industry news and trends over the course of the week and relating it to players’ multipliers that week. What we do have better control over are average multiplier rates. We generally should do a spot-check to make sure those rates aren’t too high (over 1.7x) or too low (under 1.3x). 

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Quarterbacks

Cash 

• Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
• Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
• Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

The only quarterbacks on this slate averaging more base SD points per game than Jalen Hurts (26.3) are Patrick Mahomes (30), Kyler Murray (29) and Tom Brady (27.2). Hurts hasn’t had an outing under 21 base points yet this season and continues to provide an edge as a rusher, averaging at least nine rushing attempts per game. An up-tempo and competitive matchup could lead to a ceiling game. Stack partners DeVonta Smith (1.6x) and Dallas Goedert (1.45x) make him all the more viable.

Matthew Stafford and the Rams care not about gamescript. He could certainly “go Brady” on the Lions and throw for 300-plus yards and multiple touchdowns without taking his foot off the gas. The Rams boast a slate-high 33 betting point total, and the Lions allow a league-worst 14.5 yards-per-attempt to enemy quarterbacks. It’s tempting to just lock in workhorse back Darrell Henderson, but a Stafford stack can easily pay off for a second week in a row.

GPP and MME

• Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
• Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

I’m fairly certain Tua will be more popular and that many playing the Red Zone will be tempted to load up Tua/Jaylen Waddle pairings given their multipliers and upside against Atlanta’s 30th-ranked DVOA pass defense. I’m going to go a bit against the grain and have more exposure to Matt Ryan at the lower multiplier with their squad fresh off a bye week and facing and equally bad secondary. The Dolphins are one of five teams allowing over 300 passing yards on average, and we can’t forget that the Falcons are road favorites here, projected for 25 real-life points. I don’t expect Tagovailoa’s limitation in practice this week (rib injury) to affect him during the game, but it is something to monitor the rest of this week. We’re often tempted by those high, juicy multipliers but given the dearth of QB talent in good matchups on this slate, we should be careful auto-clicking an inconsistent signal-caller coming off a fantastic season debut.

• Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Jackson is 5-0 in his career against the Bengals with a wide range of outputs:

• January 2021: 113-3-1, 11-97-0 (38-3 win)
• October 2020: 180-2-1, 2-3-0 (27-3 win)
• November 2019: 223-3-0, 7-65-1 (49-13 win)
• October 2019: 236-0-0, 19-152-1 (23-17 win)
• November 2018: 150-0-1, 26-119-0 (24-21 win)

His history is listed just for kicks as we must tune in to the current state of both teams to assess if the 6.5-point spread (46.5 total) is a fair projection and if this is a game where Lamar can be pushed to attempt 30-plus passes. He’s listed as a GPP play because we’d need more than just his standard rushing line. The Bengals are bottom-five in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks but have faced mostly pocket passers thus far. Best to prioritize others in cash but he’s a very strong consideration for tournaments coming off a poor outing against the Chargers.

Like the idea of some Derek Carr/Darren Waller pairings if building multiple lineups in tournaments — not a primary combination but one to get exposure to. Ryan Tannehill is off everyone’s radar but should get slight consideration in a game against a bottom-three pass defense where most will focus on fantasy’s best offensive weapon, Derrick Henry. A Tannehill/Henry/A.J. Brown stack with a Chiefs’ offensive player is in play in MME builds this week.

Favorite plays

Matt Ryan
Jalen Hurts
Matthew Stafford
Lamar Jackson

Running Backs

Cash

• Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
• Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams
• Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
• Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Darrel Williams, Kansas City Chiefs

A difficult group to navigate this week as SuperDraft hasn’t adjusted the multipliers of new bell-cows Chuba Hubbard, Leonard Fournette and Darrel Williams. All three were a part of GPP-winning builds last week. 

Hubbard’s projection of 16.3 base points isn’t exactly a conservative one, as it would take him either scoring a touchdown or catching a career-high passes for 50-plus yards to get there. But in this matchup, his ceiling is multiple scores and the top RB on the slate with the generous 1.65 multiplier. Hubbard was on the field for just 66% of snaps but took 16 of the team’s 17 carries as game flow dictated a passing script. This week’s matchup against the Giants is a stronger one (Giants allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game – 137.2) as they were shredded by Darrell Henderson and Ezekiel Elliott the last two weeks. There’s a strong likelihood Hubbard gets 20-plus carries, tops 100 yards for the two-point bonus and gets in the end zone at least once this week.

Darrell Henderson has a good shot at topping 100 yards for the first time this season and another two-touchdown performance is on the table as well. Hendo received 21-of-30 Rams’ rushing attempts in the blowout win this week. There is a possibility they take it easy with him and employ more of Sony Michel if this one gets out of hand early.

Leonard Fournette has been a fantasy savior this season for a team that has consistently played with a lead. The Bears are no sieves in terms of stopping the run, but we’re talking about a 13-point spread in favor of the Bucs, who are at home. Fournette has already seen 11 carries inside the 10-yard line, is averaging 17.2 touches per game and has topped 40 receiving yards in three straight games. 

Derrick Henry needs no introduction nor any convincing to be rostered. Perhaps even if he had a 0.5x multiplier. Fantasy’s best producer this season has scored three touchdowns in consecutive games and lines up for a gorgeous matchup where he will once again be heavily utilized regardless of game flow. The Chiefs have allowed nine rushing scores in six games already.

On the other side of that game is the Chiefs’ new primary back Darrel Williams, who found the end zone twice last week. The Titans’ run defense was bowled over for 149 yards by Jacksonville’s James Robinson two weeks ago but otherwise haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher this season. If fading one of the chalky 1.5x-plus guys, Williams would be the guy in hopes that he doesn’t stumble into the end zone again.

GPP and MME

• James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

Conner might be my favorite running back for the price on this slate as I hope that the others in his multiplier range soak up most of the running back spots in lineups. Chase Edmonds being a part of this backfield should at least keep Conner’s popularity somewhat subdued, but Edmonds has been dealing with a shoulder injury for the past couple weeks and saw just 36% of snaps and four carries compared to Conner’s 54% and 16 carries in Week 6. Conner is the clear red-zone guy with 18 rushes there this season and scoring five touchdowns over his last four games. Meanwhile, Edmonds has just one rushing score since the beginning of last season and just five red zone rushes this season. The Cardinals are massive 17.5-point favorites over the Texans who have allowed a league-worst 11 rushing scores.

• Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins – light exposure in MME only

Here’s one you’ll probably scoff at given the tilt-factor of this Miami backfield where Gaskin is a part of a three-man committee and has only seen double-digit carries once in six games. I wouldn’t quite call this a ‘gut play’ as Gaskin won’t be in a primary builds for me. But I will sprinkle him in on the notion that he is more heavily involved as a pass-catcher this week and attempts to mirror that 10-74-2 receiving line from two weeks ago. I’d be more intrigued if Malcolm Brown (ribs) and DeVante Parker (shoulder) don’t play. With 80 all-purpose yards, four receptions and a touchdown, Gaskin would give us 27.2 SD points at his 1.7x multiplier.

Favorite Plays

James Conner
Chuba Hubbard
Derrick Henry
Leonard Fournette

Wide Receivers

Cash

• Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers

Adams will be a popular play on SD this week coming off a rather predictable letdown game against a Bears team he rarely smashes. Washington’s secondary is putrid this season, allowing a league-high 16 passing touchdowns and are the only team offering up at least 300 passing yards to opposing QBs this season. Adams leads all wideouts with a 34% target share and his 0.65 fantasy points per route is second among receivers behind only Cooper Kupp (0.75). A 1.1x multiplier almost feels like a gift and we should be expecting a monster outing from him regardless of whether the Packers play most of the game with a lead of not. They’ll need to get that lead somehow and my guess is that Adams will play a part in that equation.

• Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons

Ridley missed the London game, then the Falcons had the bye week. We should assume he’s been champing at the bit to get back onto the field and remind everyone that dominant alpha receiver that he is. He is going to be chalky this week, but I’m not sure his popularity goes beyond 20% this week given all of the tantalizing options in the mid-range. This might be my favorite stackable game on the slate with preference leaning towards Atlanta’s well-rested side. It’s quite possible that my primary squad is a Ryan-Ridley combo. 

• Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans

Back to the well on one of my top plays last week in yet another game where QB Davis Mills will just be looking for his man and trying to get the ball to him. Cooks was a better play in PPR for his 9-89-0 line on 13 targets, but 18.7 SD points certainly didn’t kill us last week. Cooks averages 121.8 air yards per game (52 percent) and has earned a 33 percent share of the targets. Since he lines up on both perimeters and in the slot, he should avoid full coverage from shutdown man Robert Alford, who has lined up on the left side 82% of snaps this season. Slot CB Byron Murphy has been mediocre this season but the real gem to attack is RCB Marco Wilson who has allowed a catch rate of 80% and is allowing nearly one fantasy points for every two routes ran against him. That 0.46 FPTS/RT (per PFF) is the second-worst mark behind Seattle’s Sidney Jones (0.50) among cornerbacks with who have ran at least 75 routes. 

Jaylen Waddle of the Dolphins will be popular again with his multiplier coming off his two-touchdown game in Tua’s season debut where Waddle caught 10-of-13 targets. The matchup is nice for him but there are many paths to a middling effort with Mike Gesicki, Myles Gaskin and the likely return of DeVante Parker (who is a sneaky pivot in MIA/ATL GPP stacks this week).

GPP

• Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
• Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team
• Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears

Big fan of Tee Higgins this week, as I believe stud Bengals’ rookie Ja’Marr Chase will be bothered by shutdown Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey in this matchup. There are no signs of a full shadow, as Humphrey isn’t utilized that way, but I do feel that the extra attention Chase may get will results in some big opportunities for Higgins to finally have his big smash of the season. His multiplier will entice some suitors but likely without much conviction given all the alternatives in his range in higher-tempo affairs.

Call it bounceback week because I’m looking at Terry McLaurin to step up after a disappointing effort last week. It had more to do with QB Taylor Heinicke and with the Chiefs stepping up to play decent defense for the first time this season. It’s just difficult to imagine McLaurin not getting fed consistently in a game where WFT will likely be in catch-up mode for most of the game. Without shutdown corner Jaire Alexander, the Packers are left with a very beatable secondary including RCB Isaac Yiadom, who grades out as a bottom-10 corner this season.

To use Allen Robinson this week is to cater to the roto gods a bit and to have prayers answered. Robinson has been the biggest flat out bust among the top-10 wideouts drafted in seasonal leagues this season. But I’d be hard-pressed to believe that his season is lost so long as he’s healthy. He has been dealing with an ankle issue but with a couple of weeks of getting a feel with rookie Justin Fields, the stage should be set for the game we’ve been waiting for. Darnell Mooney has been the wideout of preference lately but for this matchup against a weak Bucs’ secondary in a fantastic projected game script, it’s ARob’s time to shine.

Favorite Plays

Calvin Ridley
Davante Adams
Tee Higgins
Terry McLaurin
Brandin Cooks
DeVonta Smith (though I prefer Dallas Goedert if picking one Eagle)

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Tight Ends

Cash

• Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders

We’re long overdue for the smash game, as Waller has not topped five receptions or 65 receiving yards since his Week 1 beauty (10-105-1 on 19 targets). Interim playcaller Greg Olson pumped up the tempo last week as QB Derek Carr attempted passes in 70% of neutral situations. Waller may be a touch overlooked because of the few gems in the 1.4x-1.6x range. A tight three-point spread in a potentially high paced game should help Waller return to his dominant ways.

• T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions

The Matthew Stafford–Jared Goff double revenge showdown should be a lopsided affair (Rams are 16-point favorites) with everyone expecting the Rams to control the pace and for the Lions to be playing catch-up the entire time. Hock has been playing with a minor knee issue but finally had his first solid outing (11-8-74-0) since Week 2. The majority of folks considering a bring-back to their Rams’ stack or secondary correlation will lean towards RB D’Andre Swift since his 1.45x multiplier is a generous one. Swift is the preferred option over Hockenson since he’ll contribute both to rushing and receiving stats. But a standard 6-80-1 line from the Lions’ tight end could easily lead him to being the optimal play at his position given the multiplier.

GPP and MME

• Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
• Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
• Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins

All three are solid choices to have exposure to in tournaments, but Goedert sticks out based on matchup (the Raiders allow the sixth-most FP to the position) and the presumption that he will see more snaps with Zach Ertz traded to the Cardinals. Let’s keep tabs on how practice is going since he could be a bit rusty coming off a bout with COVID-19. The 1.6x multiplier for Kyle Pitts is tempting but there are just so many solid options at tight end, and Pitts has plenty of competition for targets with alpha Calvin Ridley, pass-catching backs Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson and returning slot man Russell Gage. I’d reserve Pitts for Atlanta/Miami game stacks. Ditto for Miami’s Gesicki, who will be popular given his recent game logs and the fact that folks will want to play him on 1.55x Tua Tagovailoa stacks. My primary concern is the return of wideout DeVante Parker, whose presence should impact Gesicki’s target share this week.

The Bears’ Cole Kmet is a total dart throw and only in consideration for your against-the-grain Justin Fields stacks if building 50-plus lineups. The Bucs are a bottom-five defense against tight ends but there’s great risk with Kmet, who has only topped 25 receiving yards once this season and has yet to find paydirt.

Favorite Plays

Darren Waller
T.J. Hockenson
Dallas Goedert

Favorite Game Stacks and Secondary Correlations

• Matt Ryan (ATL) + Calvin Ridley (ATL) + Davis/CPatt/Pitts (ATL) + Waddle/Gesicki/Parker (MIA)
• Jalen Hurts (PHI) + Goedert/Smith (PHI) + Sanders (PHI) + Darren Waller (LVR)
• Lamar Jackson (BAL) + Marquise Brown or Rashod Bateman + Tee Higgins (CIN)
• Rams Stack: Stafford + Kupp + Henderson + Hockenson and/or Swift (DET)
• James Conner (ARI) + Brandin Cooks (HOU)
• Davante Adams (GB) + Terry McLaurin (WAS)
• Derrick Henry (TEN) + one of Mecole Hardman, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce
• Chuba Hubbard (CAR) + Sterling Shepard (NYG)
• Leonard Fournette (TB) + Allen Robinson (CHI)

Note that Tagovailoa/Waddle/Ridley will be the chalkiest stack on the slate.

Best of luck with your lineup builds and I’ll see you for the SuperDraft livestream show Sunday morning at 11 a.m. ET.