NBA DFS Preview – First Look (10/22)

With Thursday offering just a three-game NBA DFS slate, the slate was dictated by what studs you had in your lineup, as Stephen Curry, Paul George and Trae Young had impressive games, while the likes of Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo were somewhat disappointing relative to their salaries. On a three-game slate, every star was somewhat popular, making the right combination extremely important. Looking ahead to Friday, we have 10 games, and it’s another star-studded slate.

Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive “first look” article. This will be your go-to destination for game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.

We have 10 games on tap Friday. Let’s dive in.

Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.

NBA Vegas Data for Oct. 22 | NBA DFS First Look

Charlotte Hornets @ Cleveland Cavaliers

CHA -3, total: 224.5
2020 pace: CHA (21st), CLE (24th)

Situations to monitor:

• Terry Rozier is listed as questionable after missing the season opener due to an ankle injury.
• Darius Garland is also dealing with an ankle injury and is currently listed as questionable for the Cavs.

New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic

NYK -7, total: 211
2020 pace: NYK (30th), ORL (T16th)

Situations to monitor:

• Nerlens Noel is out and Taj Gibson is listed as questionable due to a personal matter for the Knicks.
• Gary Harris, Michael Carter-Williams, Markelle Fultz and Chuma Okeke are all out for the Magic.

Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards

WAS -1.5, total: 228.5
2020 pace: IND (5th), WAS (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• Bradley Beal is listed as questionable with a bruised right hip, while Rui Hachimura and Thomas Bryant remain out for the Wizards.
• Caris LeVert and T.J. Warren remain out for the Pacers, while Jeremy Lamb is listed as questionable despite playing in the season opener on Wednesday.

Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers

BKN -3.5, total: 229.5
2020 pace: BKN (T11th), PHI (T11th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons are both out for this game.
• Joel Embiid is listed as questionable with lingering knee soreness.

Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics

BOS -6.5, total: 218.5
2020 pace: TOR (13th), BOS (20th)

Situations to monitor:

• Pascal Siakam, Yuta Watanabe and Aron Baynes are out for the Raptors.
• Marcus Smart and Josh Richardson are both listed as probable and expected to play for the Celtics, while Al Horford is listed as questionable as he rounds his conditioning back into form after returning from the COVID-19 list.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -7, total: 221
2020 pace: NOP (9th), CHI (14th)

Situations to monitor:

• Zion Williamson remains out, while Josh Hart is questionable for the Pelicans.
• Patrick Williams is questionable and expected to play after appearing in the opener, while Coby White remains out for the Bulls.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets

HOU -2, total: 223.5
2020 pace: OKC (7th), HOU (6th)

Situations to monitor:

• none

San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -7.5, total: 220.5
2020 pace: SAS (15th), DEN (T26th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jamal Murray remains out for the Nuggets

Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -0.5, total: 220
2020 pace: PHO (T26th), LAL (T16th)

Situations to monitor:

• The Lakers are expected to be depleted on the wing again, as Kendrick Nunn, Talen Horton-Tucker, Trevor Ariza and Wayne Ellington are all listed as out.
• Landry Shamet is probable for the Suns.

Utah Jazz @ Sacramento Kings

UTA -6, total: 226.5
2020 pace: UTA (T16th), SAC (10th)

Situations to monitor:

• None

Five Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Below are noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for Friday.

1. Kevin Durant holds the highest usage rate in the NBA among players with at least 20 minutes played through their first game (42.6%), while James Harden currently ranks 31st at 31.0%. Both of these players will continue to see astronomical usage rates, but the offseason expectations of Durant leading this team as the offensive priority rang true through the first game.
2. In three games against the Wizards in 2020-21, Domantas Sabonis averaged 27.0 points, 14.3 rebounds, 10.7 assists and 2.7 steals in 39.6 minutes per game. Utter domination is a good way to phrase it. Sabonis got his way with the Wizards, as most big men do, and after an opener where he posted 33 points, 15 rebounds, and a pair of assists, he’s set up to have another smash game for only $9,000 on DraftKings.
3. Despite playing only 25.9 minutes off of the bench, Montrezl Harrell posted a 21.2% usage rate and led the entire Wizards team in scoring (22 points) in their opener. His role is far more indicative of what we saw when he was a Clipper, not what we saw last season as a Laker, and his price across the industry is going to take a number of games to catch up to this fact.
4. Julius Randle’s 95 touches in the opener were 11.4 more than he averaged in 2020-21 when he was ranked 10th in the entire NBA in touches per game (83.6). This can be chalked up to the double-overtime game, but the fact remains that Randle is the lifeblood of this Knicks offense and is still priced lower than he was for the majority of last season.
5. Russell Westbrook ranked third in the NBA in touches per game in 2020-21 (95.7) but only saw 77 touches in the Lakers’ opener against the Warriors Tuesday. His stat line was a disappointing one, but the touches could be indicative of the hit he takes on this team playing alongside LeBron James, who should be the primary facilitator, and Anthony Davis, who should be the primary scoring option.

Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look

The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic ($10,200)
2. Joel Embiid ($10,000)
3. James Harden ($9,400)
4. Kevin Durant ($9,300)
5. Bradley Beal ($9,200)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic ($11,100)
2. Kevin Durant ($10,800)
3. Joel Embiid ($10,700)
4. LeBron James ($10,400)
5. James Harden ($10,300)

Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. James Harden (1x)
2. Kevin Durant (1x)
3. Nikola Jokic (1.05x)
4. Domantas Sabonis (1.05x)
5. Anthony Davis (1.05x)
6. Joel Embiid (1.05x)
7. Russell Westbrook (1.05x)

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel, DraftKings and SuperDraft. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest-scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.

DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from DraftKings last night.

PG: Jalen Brunson (26.75)
SG: Tyler Herro (43.00)
SF: Jordan Nwora (20.75)
PF: John Collins (38.75)
C: Gorgui Dieng (26.00)
G: Stephen Curry (65.50)
F: Paul George (56.25)
UTIL: Bam Adebayo (39.75)

Total: 316.75

FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel last night.

PG: Stephen Curry (58.5)
PG: Jordan Poole (15.8)
SG: Jimmy Butler (36.8)
SG: Eric Bledsoe (40.6)
SF: Tyler Herro (39.7)
SF: Terance Mann (26.9)
PF: Bam Adebayo (37.1)
PF: John Collins (40.3)
C: Clint Capela (32.6)

Total: 328.3

SuperDraft GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from SuperDraft DFS last night.

G: Trae Young (51.6)
G: Tyler Herro (67.2)
G: Stephen Curry (64.5)
F: Jimmy Butler (44.4)
F: Paul George (66.9)
F: Jordan Nwora (40.5)
C: Bam Adebayo (49.06)

Total: 384.16

Obviously, ownership was quite condensed on a three-game slate, as Curry saw his roster percentage over 50% on FanDuel, whereas players like Jordan Nwora and Giannis Antetokounmpo saw their popular top 60% on DraftKings. Some of the most popular pieces on SuperDraft included Trae Young (69.2%), Paul George (56.4%) and Bam Adebayo (52.5%). These numbers are rather accurate in terms of what to expect from a three-game slate, serving as a healthy reminder that your low-owned options likely won’t be ones that are sub-10%.