Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to “The Breakdown,” a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.
For those that are new, here is a basic guide. The “CORE” plays are for a DFS player that is building a single entry or three-max GPP lineup. The “core” plays can be used in cash, but I always send out a Sunday a.m. “cash core” update (I put it at the bottom of this article) to narrow down the player pool even further. Most optimal cash lineups will be centered around opportunity opened up by injury, so no sense of spending hours tinkering. Reserve your cash game entries with the plan of modifying on Sunday morning.
I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 7.
#FTNDaily
All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.
BUF -13.5. O/U: 45
BUF: 29.5 | NYJ: 16
Pace and playcalling
A combo of an inaccurate Josh Allen and some rain got the Bills looking like their 2019 version Monday afternoon versus KC. Buffalo is passing at a 61% rate this season but only threw it at a 51% rate against KC. What is even more frustrating about that game was Buffalo passing on 42% of plays when behind (26 plays). Prior to Monday, Buffalo threw at a 78% rate (second) when trailing.
Opponents run a 46.74% rate against the Jets (eighth-highest), which is actually low considering how bad they are and how quickly they fall behind. Jets have a -18.3 PPG differential (the worst in the league — Washington and Jacksonville are next-worst at -9.0 and -9.3, respectively), which has led to them being 0-6 ATS.
A blowout and script are the biggest risk for Buffalo players, like we saw against the Jets last week in Miami. It was clear the Fins could have done whatever they wanted, but they passed 11 times in the second half (44% pass rate). After two straight Bills losses, count on this game being well in hand before they ease up. We just have to hope the defense or random TEs don’t take the touchdowns.
Buffalo did play a good pace last week while going run heavy, and have played at a top-10 neutral pace. In Week 1, they passed at a 60% rate against the Jets, but that game stayed relatively close (27-17 final).
Bills
The Bills are coming in banged up. They have ruled out wide receiver John Brown (knee), guard Cody Ford, TE Dawson Knox, LBs Matt Milano and Tyrel Dodson and CB Josh Norman. CB Levi Wallace is already on injured reserve, and CBs Tre’Davious White and Cameron Lewis are banged up.
Allen was always a long shot to sustain his four-week start to the season. The past two weeks, he has completed 58.8% of his passes for 5.7 yards per pass attempt. On the positive end, Allen has still thrown multiple touchdown passes in every game this season, something only Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes can also say. Allen also gets another good draw here against a Jets defense that is 21st in passing points allowed per attempt (0.48), 28th in yards per attempt (8.1 Y/A), and 30th in completion rate (71.8%) to opposing passers. Allen posted 20.5 passing points when these teams met in Week 1 with an added 57 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
With Zack Moss back in action last week, Devin Singletary still played 40 snaps (75.5%) with Moss getting on the field for just 13 (24.5%). Unfortunately, Singletary turned a pedestrian 11 touches into just 45 yards despite holding a significant snap edge. Singletary has two top-30 scoring weeks through six weeks, both coming with Moss sidelined. In the games Moss has been active, Singletary has 14, 12 and 11 touches. Moss himself has held no standalone value, garnering 12, 7 and 5 touches four 27, 37 and 10 yards.
Bills backs rushed 18 times for 41 yards when these teams played back in Week 1, but the Jets have since allowed backs to rush 127 times for 618 yards (4.9 YPC) and seven touchdowns over their five games since. Singletary is a matchup-based, floor flex while Moss is a dart.
Two weeks ago, when Brown was out, rookie Gabriel Davis played 100% of snaps and got 9 targets (5-58-0), second to only Stefon Diggs. He gets to run his routes on the outside, which is where the Jets have been getting smoked.
Stefon Diggs is one of the best plays on the slate and is not going to be as popular as you would think, currently projected at only a 10-13% roster percentage. He had 15 targets in the game without Brown, and the Jets have no one who can cover him. Buffalo is coming off two losses, so I expect them to come out firing against the Jets in the ultimate get-right spot. Diggs has seen 32% of Josh Allen’s targets over his last two games and 27.1% on the year. Opposing QBs have completed 22.0% pass attempts on throws over 15 yards downfield, the highest rate in the league. Diggs and Allen have been great in the deep passing attack, so get ready for a big day from Stefon.
Jets
The Bills have not been a good defense. The offense hid it for a while, but games against the Titans and Chiefs led to 42 and 26 points allowed. They are 29th in yards per drive and 27th in points per drive allowed after being fourth and second, respectively, last year. They have fallen to 29th in overall DVOA, allowing at least 23 points in every game this season (28.0 PPG allowed, 16.2 in 2019). None of that matters this week, with the Jets being a complete dumpster fire. You can full fade — even if Jamison Crowder or someone has a nice game, I doubt they produce a slate-breaker play.
With Le’Veon Bell gone last week, La’Mical Perine led the Jets backfield with a 57.7% snap rate, seeing 9 touches (2 targets) for 36 total yards. 87-year-old Frank Gore got 15 touches for 70 total yards (4 targets, despite running 5 fewer routes than Perine). Ty Johnson saw the field in the second half, getting three touches for 42 yards. Not sure how much the Jets are going to factor in Johnson’s success with the game out of reach, but it makes another guy to share an already-low workload on a team that may never be winning.
Crowder is locked into heavy usage (31.4% target share when active, second) with the Jets always behind. He has at least seven receptions every game he has played and is averaging 11.5 targets per game. He is fourth in yards after the catch, which has inflated his yardage totals. We saw that regress last week, when he only got 48 yards on 7 receptions in Miami. He has slayed this matchup in his last two games, but both came with Sam Darnold under center. Crowder has seen 40 targets in his last three games against Buffalo, which has allowed the sixth-most yards to slot receivers.
Core plays: Stefon Diggs
GPP only: Josh Allen, Jamison Crowder
CAR +7.5. O/U: 51
CAR: 21 | NO: 30
Pace and playcalling
This game is not appealing from a pace perspective but has plenty of DFS juice from a number of perspectives, including the “revenge game” for Teddy Bridgewater (for you #NarrativeStreet fans). New Orleans is 27th in neutral pace, Carolina 24th. They also refuse to go no-huddle, with Carolina at 0% in neutral and New Orleans 2%. Even when behind, neither team is going to go no-huddle, with them both in the bottom seven in no-huddle rate.
That has not stopped the Saints from being very fantasy-friendly. They are the only team to go OVER the total in all their games, with the largest +/- differential, going 10.89 over the total on average.
Their pass rates are nearly identical, both at 57%. They also are very close in yards per drive, the difference being that New Orleans has scored 30.6 PPG while Carolina has struggled in the red zone to the tune of 23 PPG. Carolina is 28th in red-zone scoring percentage, leading the league with 2.7 field goals per game. If they can turn some of those red zone chances into TDs, the Panthers would be formidable. This week they will have their chance, with new Orleans second in red-zone scoring percentage against on 4 red-zone attempts against per game (T-fifth).
Carolina funnels teams to the run (10th-highest rush rate against), and New Orleans pushes teams into the pass (fourth in rush DVOA).
Carolina sticks to the script — a 56% neutral pass rate and 58% once down by 7 or more. They have lost two games by double-digits, giving us a pretty solid sample size with that scenario. Since they stay consistent, we want them to get the lead so New Orleans will pass more (65% when down by at least 7). That is a big shift from their 48% pass rate when they go up by 7 or more, and 58% in neutral situations.
Panthers
Teddy Bridgewater rolls back to the Bayou as the QB23 this season, after running into a tough Bears defense that held him to a season-low in yards and two INTs. He only has one GPP-worthy game, coming against Arizona (276-2, plus 32-1 on the ground). The scrambling yards have been a nice surprise, going over 26 rush yards in three of six games (1.8 RZ carries a game, second). New Orleans is fourth in fantasy points allowed to the position this season, with their high-scoring affairs leading to big QB production.
There are some positive signs for Teddy B. He is ninth in attempts per game and third in catchable pass rate, with a 77.7% adjusted completion rate (fourth). It’s all about the red-zone efficiency; he is completing just 50% of his passes in close. New Orleans has had terrible red-zone defense, as mentioned in the pace section. They have allowed 2 or more TD passes in every game, and 3 or more in their last four games, capped off by the 4-TD performance by Justin Herbert.
Mike Davis hit his floor last week, rushing for 52 yards and a score on 18 attempts. He was held down in the passing game also, catching two balls on three targets for a whopping 3 yards. The targets were a head-scratcher after he had averaged over 7 per game since Christian McCaffrey went down. It was an ugly game for the offense, with Bridgewater only dropping back 29 times (averaging 41.4 prior). The Carolina O-line is playing well (12th in adjusted line yards), but it is a tough matchup with the Saints front seven in the top-five in adjusted line yards allowed.
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Robby Anderson also felt the effects of a low pass rate and strange target distribution. He also fell off a cliff, seeing 5 targets after 23 the previous two games (9.2 targets per game before last week). Still, he managed 77 yards by catching four balls, taking him to 567 on the year (94.5 yards per game, second).
I have highlighted the way they use him many times with the route charts, lining him up on both sides about equally as well as 32% in the slot. His usage checks all the boxes: top-seven in targets, top-11 in percentage of team air yards (2.74 yards per route run, seventh). Marshon Lattimore has not shadowed since Week 1 (he also has not been very good), so Anderson will run routes against all the Saints CBs equally. One of those CBs will be Janoris Jenkins, who returns after sitting out for two games. That should push Patrick Robinson to the bench, with Michael Thomas’ favorite guy Chauncey Gardner-Johnson playing in the slot over P.J. Williams. Both Johnson and Jenkins are height-challenged, which could be an issue against the 6-foot-3 Anderson in the red zone (26.1% red-zone target share). Anderson has 3 end-zone targets, which has not produced a TD — I think he gets in the box this week to go along with 6-plus catches and 80-90 yards.
D.J. Moore was the benefactor of the strange Carolina game plan last week, if you can call it that. He saw a season-high 11 targets (38% of team targets), catching 5 balls for 93 yards, the second consecutive week he reached 93 yards exactly. He is still getting the deeper targets, playing most of his snaps on the boundaries (13% slot). The Saints have allowed the third- and fourth-fewest receptions to LWR and RWR per our Advanced DvP tool. Moore ripped apart the Saints last year (6-126-2), but I prefer Anderson for his routes against this Saints D.
Charts, via Sharp Football.
Saints D
One of the best things about using Carolina players is the concentration of targets, the three above players soak up 73% of the team’s targets and have scored every touchdown except 1 from Ian Thomas and the ones McCaffrey scored prior to his injury.
Saints
Drew Brees is the supporting actor now, which is strange after so many years of him dominating in the Superdome. Now, this is Alvin Kamara’s team, especially with Michael Thomas scheduled to miss another game after suffering a hamstring injury in practice.
The Panthers have improved their historically bad rush D from 2019, when they allowed 143.5 yards a game on a league-worst 5.32 RB yards per carry allowed. This year it is 121.5 per game (16th), on 4.81 RB YPC, but 158 total yards per game allowed, along with 8.8 RB receptions per game and 9 total TDs (33.5 FPPG allowed on DK).
This will be their biggest test, with the Saints fourth in adjusted line yards and Kamara and Latavius Murray averaging 135.2 and 57.2 total yards a game, respectively. Kamara has been this year’s answer to McCaffrey, with five top-10 finishes, including two in the top-two. He doesn’t get the same rushing share McCaffrey has gotten, averaging 12.2 carries per game on a 60.9% opportunity share (20th). I guess they are worried about his durability, but I would sure like to see what would happen if Kamara (5-foot-10, 215 pounds) got an Ezekiel Elliott or Derrick Henry workload.
I use Emmitt Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson as comps often for RBs that are perceived to be passing-down RBs, unable to handle more than 12 carries per game. Smith saw as many as 450 touches in his prime at 5-9, 215 pounds. LT also played at Kamara’s exact height/weight (5-10, 215) and got 380-400 touches a year for his epic four-season run in 2004-2007. I know those were different times, but Kamara will only see 335 touches at this pace despite averaging nearly 7 yards per touch. Even an additional 3.5 touches per game would equal 392 total yards for the Saints over a season, and I don’t think he will maintain this usage pace once Michael Thomas returns.
Murray doesn’t get the bump you might think with MT out, as shown by our NFL Splits tool. Could he get into a positive script and turn his 10.75 touches per game into 15? Yes. He could absolutely smash in that spot if he ends up with a couple of TDs like he did in Detroit (21 DK points). If you play 150 lineups, I would get about 5-7% for that scenario or (god forbid) something happened to Kamara. He certainly is the ultimate leverage play (5% projected ownership), with him landing on all your most of your non-Kamara teams. With Emmanuel Sanders also out, there is a clearer path to 15 touches for Murray, a number he has hit two times this season.
Sanders being on the Reserve/COVID-19 list puts Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway (an undrafted rookie from Tennessee) in the starting lineup. Sanders has been a frequent target for Brees over the past two games, seeing 23 targets after only 13 in his first three. Even with Sanders in the lineup last week, Marquez ran 34 routes on 71% of snaps, catching 4 of 6 targets for 34 yards, outperforming Smith (2-8-0 in 3 targets).
This shakeup will put Smith on the outside more, with 5-6, 170-pound Deonte Harris in the slot (Saints, 59% 3-WR sets) with Bennie Fowler also on IR (43.8% in the slot last game). At the minimum price, Callaway and Harris make interesting fliers, if you are a showdown slate person. There just isn’t a lot of need for it on a full slate that has so much value all over the board.
I think we see more Murray, more Taysom Hill and more Jared Cook. Cook has not done much of anything this season, so he’s hard to trust, but the logic is there for him to lead the way behind Kamara in targets. Brees has targeted him deep and at the goal, and he has a 128.0 passer rating when looking Cook’s way.
Core plays: Alvin Kamara, Robby Anderson
GPP only: Mike Davis, Latavius Murray, Jared Cook, Tre’Quan Smith (he is popping in Kyle Murray’s model, so I’m adding him here)
CLE -3.5. O/U: 50
CLE: 26.5 | CIIN: 24
Browns
Baker Mayfield is exactly what we expected in this Kevin Stefanski offensive scheme. Now, he is banged up on top of it and runs into a Cincinnati team that is top-12 in points allowed.
Kareem Hunt is the only Cleveland guy I am on in a three-max. The takeover as the team’s No. 1 back has not yielded the points many thought it would, but now he finally runs into a plus matchup with Cincinnati, who rank 25th or lower in adjusted line, second-level and open-field yards. The Bengals allowed he and Nick Chubb to go for 240 total yards and 4 TDs in this matchup in Week 2. Hunt is projected to be the most popular back on both main sites.
Odell Beckham is a GPP-only play, with the low passing volume and relatively high price for what we are getting. He still has not had a 6-catch or 80-yard game this season and has not gone over 100 yards for 17 games.
Jarvis Landry is averaging 4 receptions for 53 yards on 5.5 targets per game. He is also playing banged up, so we can ignore him.
TE Austin Hooper won’t play Sunday after undergoing an appendectomy. This may seem like nothing, but Hooper is actually the Browns’ target leader over his past three games. They aren’t coming out of their two-TE sets, so plan on seeing lots of Harrison Bryant, David Njoku and Stephen Carlson.
Bryant has run more pass routes (34) than Njoku (28), but Njoku has out-targeted him 7-5. The Bengals allowed a 7-82-2 game to the Colts tight ends, which have them ranked in the top-six in terms of favorable matchups for TEs. I am just using Chubb in two-max, hoping some of Hooper’s targets flow to him. In Milly Makers, Bryant is my preference with a $2.5k price tag I can’t resist.
The Browns are getting back their safeties. Neither S Karl Joseph nor Ronnie Harrison was given a status, meaning they’ll be back in the lineup after missing last week’s game.
Bengals
Joe Burrow is only $5.5k on DK, which has him on my radar in another game that should keep him throwing. He dropped back 61 times in this matchup in Week 2 as the Bengals played from behind. He leads the league in dropbacks per game (47.3), and now loses his workhorse RB in Joe Mixon. He and his pass catchers make good leverage plays this week with Giovani Bernard taking over as the RB1. The fear with Burrow is the OL/DL line matchup, which is not a good one for Cincinnati (29th in adjusted sack rate allowed).
Tyler Boyd will work out of the slot like usual. Cleveland has allowed the third-most catches and fourth-most yards to slot receivers, including 7-71-1 vs the Browns in Week 2. A.J. Green came out of nowhere with 11 targets after seeing 12 in his previous three games. Green was targeted in more intermediate pass routes, which helped the efficiency. He and Burrow have not been able to connect deep, despite being sixth is deep targets per game. He will run most of his routes against fellow veteran Terrance Mitchell, who allowed James Washington and Pittsburgh to get loose last week for 120 yards in coverage.
Giovani Bernard will be a big decision for the DFS community with Joe Mixon out. At just $4.5k on DK, it will be a tough fade, considering Bernard has been a top-20 back in four games without Mixon since Mixon entered the league, averaging 88.8 total yards on 17 touches per game. Samaje Perine has a single carry on the season (last week), so this appears to be all Bernard. Burrow has been targeting his backs on a 21.4% rate over his last three games (7 per game). Cleveland has been a mixed bag against RBs, holding both Ezekiel Elliott and Jonathan Taylor to under 60 rush yards while allowing 5 rush TDs in their last three games and 100 yards to James Conner. Per DVOA, they aren’t anything to fear, ranking 20th in rush DVOA and 14th in adjusted line yards. The issue is the Bengals OL is only 29th in the same metric.
Tee Higgins is legit, second on the team in catches and targets while also emerging as Burrow’s preferred receiver in the red zone and end zone. It was easier when Green wasn’t a thing, but Higgins is still a viable stack candidate. He has 5 inches on Denzel Ward, which could help him to his third career TD. With everyone playing Bernard, all these other Bengals should be very low-owned in GPPs.
Core plays: Kareem Hunt, Giovani Bernard, Cleveland DST
GPP only: David Njoku, Joe Burrow/Kareem Hunt/Tyler Boyd/A.J. Green stack, Tee Higgins
DAL +1. O/U: 46
DAL: 23 | WAS: 23.5
Cowboys
It’s tough to look at stats from Dallas with Andy Dalton under center. Dak Prescott was on a historic pace, so this is a tough one. Dalton was a hot mess in his first start, actually worse than the stats (266-1-2) indicate. The positive takeaway for our purposes was 54 pass attempts, as the Cowboys played from behind against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Dalton was terribly inaccurate, ranking 31st in Player Profiler’s catchable pass rate metric. In fairness, the OL is a patchwork unit that allowed him to be under pressure on a third of his dropbacks. Arizona is 19th in adjusted sack rate, compared to ninth for Washington (13th in pressure rate) … and Washington has been even better than that when Chase Young is in the lineup.
Washington is not a defense to just blindly play RBs against. The Football Team is eighth in adjusted line yards allowed and has only allowed one back (Nick Chubb) to go over the 100-yard mark. This Dallas OL is not the same unit we’re used to, and the star on the helmet doesn’t help block defenders. If you see people quoting Ezekiel Elliott’s “BvP” against this defense, run the other way. It’s a lazy stat, generated with different linemen, in a different system, against different players, with a defense that didn’t always create pass-happy gamescripts. He is averaging 68 rush yards per game but has gotten enough targets to keep him in the top-five in PPR formats. He only played 61% of snaps last week, getting benched for Tony Pollard after fumbling two more times. Still, he saw 11 targets from Dalton, as the QB constantly looked to dump it off with his offensive line playing so poorly. Washington has been lights out against RBs in the passing game, allowing just 3.1 RB receptions and 21.5 receiving yards per game. I will be underweight on Elliott at his price and still relatively high ownership.
Amari Cooper used garbage time and 10 targets to post a respectable 7-79-1 line Monday. He moves around the formation and has a good enough individual matchups against Ronald Darby and Jimmy Moreland. Other than CeeDee Lamb, these Dallas WRs were a bit of a week-to-week proposition with Prescott, simply because they are loaded with three studs, a tight end and of course Zeke, who absorbs 4-plus red-zone touches per game (fourth-most). With Cooper’s price still where was with Prescott, I can’t do it.
Lamb has at least five receptions in every game this season, something I know well because the bookmakers keep making his receptions prop 4.5 and we keep pounding it. He has 21 targets in his last two weeks and will mostly get Jimmy Moreland in the slot. Pulling out just the snaps with Dalton, both Lamb and Cooper have both been targeted 13 times, with exactly nine receptions each. Lamb is finally getting moved up in salary, now $6.5k on DK, which has me in sell mode. It was a good run, CeeDee. Thanks for the memories.
If I’m not using the top passing options in this one, I can’t use Michael Gallup or TE Dalton Schultz. Gallup has a very low 55% catch rate, and a lot of that was with Prescott. Kendall Fuller has been lights out this year, and he should be in front of Gallup for 55% of his routes.
Football Team
Kyle Allen loves to check it down to his RBs, which makes sense after doing it 130-some times last season in Carolina (25.6% RB target rate). Last week, he targeted his backs at a 30% rate, up from the team’s 25% rate in Weeks 1-5 and 21% when Dwayne Haskins was under center. This is good news for the Football Team’s RBs. The only issue: There are two.
J.D. McKissic has hauled in six or more balls in his past three games, out-targeting Antonio Gibson 22-15, while outsnapping the rookie in three of the last four. Four of Washington’s last five games have been lopsided losses, so it makes sense McKissic has matched or exceeded Gibson’s playing time in those. They have allowed over 31 points per game in four of those games (all non-NFC East opponents), compared to 18.5 against the Eagles and Giants. We have yet to see Gibson as the primary ball carrier in a game that Washington has controlled or won, since they used Peyton Barber in their only win back in Week 1. I think Gibson is primed for his best game as a pro against a Dallas team that doesn’t have a lot of interest in tackling (26th in adjusted line yards allowed). Washington has been equally bad in run blocking, but has also not faced a team like Dallas and their 29th-ranked rush DVOA. With three RBs absorbing so much ownership, players like Gibson will give you a nice ownership edge in tournaments.
Dallas will be getting back their leader, MLB Sean Lee. Who knows how many snaps he will play, or how much all these injuries will hurt his level of play, but he has made a big impact for Dallas in the past.
Terry McLaurin has also been a victim of his schedule (in addition to bad QB play). He is finally in a good spot against the Cowboys — though it isn’t quite as juicy as it could have been. Daryl Worley, who has allowed 3.6 fantasy points per target, was benched last week after giving up the Christian Kirk TD. Chidobe Awuzie is eligible to come off IR, but I don’t think he will be active. That leaves Trevon Diggs, Jourdan Lewis in the slot, and either Worley or his replacement on the outside to contend with F1, who has moved around quite a bit, including 28% from the slot.
McLaurin has 58 targets (fifth-most) but is only the WR23 on the season. He is too cheap on DK at $5.8k, where he can still smash without a TD and is thus a top-five WR play. On FD, he is lumped in with the big dogs of the slate (Stefon Diggs, DK Metcalf, Kenny Golladay), making him less of a value. I will probably have him in the DK cash core, and GPP only on FD.
WRs Antonio Gandy-Golden and Isaiah Wright (at least 5 targets in three of four games) have been ruled OUT. That leaves a very thin WR core with Steven Sims already on IR. Behind McLaurin, Dontrelle Inman and TE Logan Thomas are the only healthy pass-catchers along with UDFA Cam Sims, who they called up from the practice squad. This is another reason to like the RBs to catch balls. It is also a reason to not worry about F1 getting a tougher CB matchup, as the volume should be massive.
Thomas is dead to me. He makes sense with no WRs active, and he was actually useful last week (3-42-1), but the pain is still too recent.
Core plays: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Washington DST
GPP only: Ezekiel Elliott
DET +2. O/U: 56.5
DET: 27.5 | ATL: 29
Lions
Matthew Stafford has the dream matchup against the ATL secondary, allowing 29.9 fantasy points per game on DK to QBs after allowing Kirk Cousins to get off for 343-3-3. Cousins had not surpassed 260 yards prior, showing just how high this ATL defense can lift even a run-first offense. A big factor was the Falcons scoring early and often, something I think they can do again against Detroit at home with a healthy Julio Jones once again.
As our NFL Splits tool illustrates, Atlanta has been a different team with and without Julio active/healthy (I removed the game he left with injury). We can also see his effect on Todd Gurley and the running game. Jones is projected to be around 10% this week, which is still very low considering he has slate-breaking upside. I realize this is the Lions section, but I think Atlanta scoring is the key to get the Lions passing offense cranked up (the Falcons have a 29-point team total).
Stafford is averaging just 33 attempts per game, as Detroit has fallen to the 23rd in terms of neutral pass rate. That goes up to 64% when trailing, along with a 5-second-per-play bump in their pace. The other issue for Stafford this year is deep pass attempts, something that made him so valuable last year prior to his injury. In 2019, he attempted passes of 20-plus yards at double the rate — 7.0 per game versus 3.5 this season.
Atlanta has been solid against the run (sixth in adjusted line yards allowed), which has pushed their opponents into a high pass rate, and you know the rest. Normally a team with only one win on the season will have a very high rush rate against, but Atlanta is an anomaly, allowing the third-fewest rush attempts per game.
Kenny Golladay has been victimized by the low pass attempts, yet has still managed three solid games, averaging 17.1 FPPG on DK. Atlanta has allowed the most 20-yard pass plays this season. Golladay is a top-five WR on the slate despite calling out his franchise on Instagram for not offering a long-term deal. Golladay is set to earn $2.13 million in 2020, which compared to other alpha WRs is very low. Calvin Ridley signed a four-year, $10,900,711 contract with the Atlanta Falcons, including a $6,007,790 signing bonus, $8,454,251 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $2,725,178. If the two sides can’t work out an extension this year, Golladay is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent next offseason
Injuries
ATL is so thin, with CB Darqueze Dennard (hamstring, IR), DE Dante Fowler (ankle), DE Takkarist McKinley (groin), CB Kendall Sheffield (foot) as well as safeties Jaylinn Hawkins (concussion) and Damontae Kazee (Achilles, IR).
As one of my most-rostered best ball running backs it was great to see D’Andre Swift get a season-high 17 touches last week. His usage rate was very high, considering he only played his typical 37.7% snap share. That was the same as it was in Week 4, and lower than Week 1. Still, low snaps or not, he got 14 rush attempts after 12 all season, even getting two goal-line carries. Again, Atlanta is no pushover in rush D, but have allowed the second-most RB catches, despite Minnesota only targeting backs four times last week. In the Lions’ three losses, Swift has averaged 4.5 targets per game, so again, we really want ATL to come out firing to get Detroit out of its conservative ways.
In his age-30 season, Marvin Jones has been brutal. His target share is down to 14% from above 20% last year, and he has exceeded 55 rec yards just once. We saw what a WR2 can do to this defense last week, when Justin Jefferson ran wild, so it makes sense to get Jones in some GPP stacks if you think this one goes wild.
T.J. Hockenson is in the same boat as Jones and Golladay. There just aren’t that many targets going around this year, and he is lumped in with Jones and slot WR Danny Amendola in terms of usage. He is having some of his targets eroded from Jesse James (11-6 over their last three in Hockenson’s favor), which makes him someone I can’t use unless it is in a game stack. We would need a TD from T.J., and if there is a matchup for it, this is that — Atlanta has allowed seven touchdowns to opposing tight ends (last) while ranking 30th in receptions allowed per game (6.7).
Lions cornerback Desmond Trufant has been declared out for Sunday, which is a good thing considering how his play has been.
Falcons
Todd Gurley is coming off a season-high 23 touches last week. It was tough to watch, with him amassing just 67 total yards on all those touches. This matchup is much better, at home against a Lions team that is a run funnel per DVOA (12th pass, 30th in rush), allowing 7 RB scores in five games on 5.2 RB YPC. Gurley is fourth in red-zone and 11th in goal-line carries, though as I mentioned, he has not done much this season with Julio Jones in the lineup.
I led off with the dramatic splits for ATL with and without Julio in the lineup, and that applies to Matt Ryan more than anyone. He has been a top-three WB all three times Julio has played the full games, including last week’s QB2 performance.
More on those Julio splits — you may think Calvin Ridley should benefit from Julio not being on the field, but it’s the opposite. He is still Robin and Julio is still Batman, at least for a bit longer. As you can see, he has been an elite WR1 with Julio, and a serviceable WR2 without. These two WRs make one of the best stack combos in the league, seeing over 50% of Ryan’s air yards.
These Lions young CBs are talented players, so this is not the Vikings matchup that saw these two Atlanta WRs dominate. The Lions at least have big-time athletes as their outside CB, with first-round rookie Jeff Okudah and Amani Oruwariye. Darryl Roberts is the weak link in the slot, putting Russell Gage in a good spot. Julio has also lined up inside on 28% of snaps (8% for Ridley), giving him the edge for me in this matchup if I had to choose one Falcons receiver to run it back with. If you stack Ryan, I’d play them both. It’s a big stretch to think Matty Ice puts together a top-five finish in a GPP without those two studs coming along for the ride.
Core plays: Kenny Golladay, Julio Jones
GPP only: Matthew Stafford, D’Andre Swift, Calvin Ridley, Matt Ryan, T.J. Hockenson, Russell Gage
GB -3.5. O/U: 56
GB: 30 | HOU: 27
Pace and playcalling
As I have highlighted before, Houston plays well for DFS. Starting off slow, falling behind, and putting Deshaun Watson in the fast-pace/pass-first mode that we want. Houston is 31st in first-quarter scoring this season, 23rd in the first half (Green Bay is seventh). Watson then gets his restrictor plate removed, which has led to 21 points per game in the second half over their past three games.
Houston has allowed 30.3 PPG, while Green Bay is at 27.8 but have allowed at least 30 in three of five.
Over their last three weeks, these teams have passed at the fifth- (GB) and eighth-highest rate.
Houston has also picked up the pace, now in the top-10 in neutral pace. Green Bay plays annoyingly slowly, 32nd overall as Aaron Rodgers takes forever at the line of scrimmage, even when they do “hurry up.” The combo of their pace and Houston’s inability to stop the run has me leaning toward the UNDER here, though that hardly matters for DFS, as this is one of the better games on the slate.
Packers
Aaron Jones is a game-time decision, which puts this entire slate in a state of flux. He projects as our RB2 on the slate in Kyle Murray’s model, so obviously has a massive impact on this game.
Matt Lafleur told reporters rookie second-round pick A.J. Dillon is “absolutely” ready to step in alongside fourth-year veteran Jamaal Williams in Green Bay’s backfield. The matchup is awesome for these RBs. The Texans rank 32nd in adjusted line yards allowed, giving up 9 TDs to backs (last) and four 100-yard games. When looking at this matchup in terms of adjusted line yards allowed/gained, second-level and open-field ranking, it may be the most lopsided I have ever seen. Houston is dead last in adjusted line yards allowed and open-field rank, 29th in second-level. Green Bay is seventh, fourth and second, respectively. Houston is allowing a league-high 6.5 yards per carry on first-down rushing attempts, while GB is averaging 5.8 YPC on first down runs.
There is even more uncertainty here, with TE Robert Tonyan (ankle), CB Kevin King and stud tackle David Bakhtiari all questionable. RB Tyler Ervin has been ruled out, but Tonyan returned to practice Friday after not practicing this week.
A 56-point total is no joke — Aaron Rodgers has only seen six in his 204 career starts and Deshaun Watson has yet to play in a game with a total that high. He did play with a 55-point total once and went off for 31 DK points. Rodgers looked terrible last week, which was all pressure based. He just doesn’t handle it well at this point of his career, with him not running like he used to (1.6 rush attempts per game, 41st). He is completing 73.7% of his passes when clean, and 30.3% under pressure. Houston is 28th in the league in pressure rate (16.7%) and dead last in adjusted sack rate. Look for Rodgers to bounce back in Houston.
Davante Adams should get a Bradley Roby shadow. Roby is nothing for Adams to worry about; he’s allowed Adam Thielen and A.J. Brown 22 FP each, giving up over 2.0 fantasy points per target in coverage. After four weeks being out, Adams got 10 targets, but was held in check by Carlton Davis (6-61-0). He is a top-three WR play on the slate, likely No. 1 if Jones is ruled out.
(I will revisit this game in more detail after we get the Jones news.)
Texans
Deshaun Watson has been our guy for three straight weeks, and it has been fun. Watson gave us a floor of 24 fantasy points and broke out last week with 35 on DraftKings (350 yards, 4 TDs, 23 rush yards). Green Bay showed us the power of scheduling last week, getting ripped apart by the Tampa Bay offense. The Packers have allowed 34 points per game on the road this season and only 18.5 at home. A five-game sample is not enough to call it legit, but it is something to pay attention to with them playing six of their next nine games in Lambeau. Green Bay has allowed at least 2 touchdown passes in four of five games, with the only exception being the Atlanta game when the Falcons were without Julio Jones. They are 25th in pass DVOA and 25th in FP per pass attempt allowed. Watson is adding about 20 yards per game on the ground, which helps raise his floor. He is a top-five QB again this week.
David Johnson (fifth in RB opportunity share) seems to be the only thing getting in the way of Watson (31st in yards per touch, seeing 19 touches per game in his last three). Houston is determined to run, but both their line and DJ are not playing well. Houston is 21st or lower in all three run-blocking metrics, which has led to a 3.9 YPC average. Johnson is running a ton of routes (second, 25.7 per game), but only sees 10% of Watson’s targets, yielding 9 catches in his last five games. The Packers are dead last in fantasy points per game allowed to RBs at over 31 PPG on DK. What makes that more meaningful is they are 4-1, which have put teams in passing situations. We saw what can happen to this defense when they fall behind last week, as the Tampa Bay backs combined for 32-156-2 on the ground. We need Green Bay to jump out to a big lead and take away Houston’s temptation to run.
Will Fuller has been great, but he runs into Jaire Alexander in this one. Alexander has gone heads up with Adam Thielen, Calvin Ridley and Mike Evans. Fuller is a HR hitter, so he can absolutely get loose on a play or two throughout the game, but with so many WRs on this slate I want to play already, Fuller gets a week off from my lineups. If he does pop, my Watson shares will be thankful.
Brandin Cooks has 21 targets in his last two games to lead the team, after just 21 in the first four games. Cooks has balled out in his last two, putting up 8-161-1 and 9-68-1. With Alexander locked on Fuller, Cooks could continue to be the alpha.
Taking a look at Sharp Football heat maps, Cooks’ routes and target zones align very well with GB’s pass D. For a player who has averaged 27 FPPG in his last two, in a great matchup, in a game with a 56 total, Cook is still projected to be 10% (or less) in terms of ownership. To top it off, he is still only $5.2k on DK and $5.9k on FD.
Randall Cobb gets his revenge matchup against the Pack. He had a great matchup last week but didn’t do much, posting 3-17-1. He has at least 10 DK fantasy points in four of five games and popped for a 19.5-point game against the Steelers, so I will have him in some Watson stacks.
Jordan Akins is doubtful again, putting Darren Fells back in our lives for a third straight week. Watson looked his way often in Tennessee, seven targets for 6-85-1. I like his price on FD ($5.3k) so have built a game stack or two with him already.
Core plays: Brandin Cooks, Davante Adams, Deshaun Watson, Darren Fells (I will update Sunday morning for Green Bay RBs)
GPP only: Aaron Rodgers, David Johnson
NE -3. O/U: 44
SF: 20.5 | NE: 23.5
Pace and playcalling
This game doesn’t offer a ton of DFS upside, with the lowest total on the slate (both teams are top-12 in points per drive allowed). It opened at 46 and has been bet down to 44. San Francisco is 31st in overall pace and the Patriots are 30th once they get a lead, so if New England does get ahead, the clock is going to burn quickly. Not only is New England running a lot (third-highest rush rate), they are also pushing teams into the run (fourth).
The 49ers are passing more this season, a result of their defense not being as dominant, but they will run at a 48% rate once they get a lead and slow it down (26th pace when up at least 7)
49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo only attempts 24.8 passes per game (31st). New England allows the fewest pass attempts per game, which has them fifth in fantasy points per game allowed to QBs, and nearly all those points are coming from the game in Seattle against Russell Wilson. I don’t expect to see that again this year from this NE team. This is a “revenge game” for Garoppolo, but that hardly matters against the Patriots defense.
Jerick McKinnon gets another shot at being the 49ers lead back with Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman OUT. As I just said, New England is pushing teams into a ton of rush attempts, 28 per game after the Broncos rushed 37 times last week in the upset. He saw 17 and 21 touches in his two starts, averaging 87 total yards per game with 6 targets. What we need is clarity about Jeffery Wilson, as his presence would turn this into a potential three-man RBBC, with rookie Jamycal Hasty now in the mix after nine carries for 37 yards, versus six times for 18 yards for McKinnon.
With Deebo Samuel back in the mix, to go along with Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne, I am not on these guys for the reasons outlined above.
George Kittle is 100% going to get the Bill Belichick treatment, where he looks to take out or at least limit a team’s best offensive player. He did it to Darren Waller and Travis Kelce this season, and we have seen him do it for years before that. At Kittle’s price I just can’t do it outside of large field GPPs.
The 49ers are hurting in the secondary, with both starting safeties OUT. Jaquiski Tartt and Jimmie Ward were ruled out as well. Tartt and Ward join cornerback Richard Sherman and nickel corner K’Waun Williams among starters in the secondary who won’t be available Sunday. RB Raheem Mostert (knee) and LB Kwon Alexander (ankle) are also OUT.
Patriots
Cam Newton looked terrible last week, coming off the Reserve/COVID-19 list. His play made me think about the disease and how it could affect players returning in terms of conditioning and other health factors. It’s so new and seems to be so different for so many people it is hard to know or get a decent enough data size to make it valid, so for now we can just speculate. I know even after a cold or flu the body takes a while to get back to 100%, so it would not shock me to see stats back this up once the season is done and we can do the math. He has looked like hot garbage outside of that Seahawks game, which I am considering a total outlier. Outside of those 397 passing yards in Seattle, Newton has thrown for 155, 162 and 157 yards this season. He also has just two passing touchdowns. Yikes. With both SF safeties out, you can make a case to play Newton for his rushing (13.1 rushing points per game), especially with SF already giving up production to rushing QBs. This season they have already allowed 91 yards and a TD to Kyler Murray, 37 yards and a TD to Carson Wentz, and 49 yards to Daniel Jones.
James White has led the backfield with 40 and 31 snaps the past two games (NE losses), so if you think San Francisco controls the game, he would be your New England RB du jour. He has 17 targets in those two games, which leads the team. With Newton as the goal-line back now, plus both Damien Harris and Rex Burkhead still in the mix, this is not a guy I want to play. The 49ers have been good against the run (eighth in adjusted line yards), and against RBs in the passing game, with Myles Gaskin’s 5-34-0 being the best output this season.
Damiere Byrd leads the team in pass routes and is second behind White in targets over their last two games but is still technically option B behind Julian Edelman. N’Keal Harry is also in the mix, which is enough for me to fade these guys. Cam looks terrible, and we know New England prefers to run.
Core plays: N/A
GPP only: Jerick McKinnon (if Wilson is OUT), New England DST, San Francisco DST
KC -9.5. O/U: 48.5
KC: 30 | DEN: 19
Weather
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It is going to be cold, around 20 degrees. We may have snow, though we need to wait until Sunday morning to see the deal. I will give this game a full update then. These two played in a snow game last year in KC and Mahomes went off, so many will look to that as the reason to not worry about it here. I will say that KC has already shown a higher rush rate this season, passing at 57% in neutral situations (18th) after 65% last year (first). KC played without Damien Williams and Darrel Williams in that game, and now they feature two studs at RB with the arrival of Le’Veon Bell, so I am not expecting fireworks.
SUNDAY UPDATE
This game is going to be approx 16 degrees, with 10mph wind. Snowfall around 2-3 inches. The wind is the biggest factor for passing games, however, there is data on cold dragging down scoring once below 20 degrees. The wind chill here is going to be 5-10 degrees, making this a game I am going to fade, outside of the TEs in GPPs. Both Noah Fant and Travis Kelce are so big and talented, I can see them getting a usage bump as the big/easy target in the middle of the field for their respective QBs. We would normally look at the RBs here as well, but with both Phil Lindsay and CEH getting Melvin Gordon and Lev Bell added to the mix, I am once again going to just fade it. It’s an 11 game slate, with 7 games over a 50 total, I am just going to use this shit weather as a reason to cross this game off our core LU building process.
Pace, playcalling, scheme, coaching. All things that affect a player’s fantasy output as much as — sometimes more than — their skills. We have attacked new schemes against established ones repeatedly this season with great success, as it has always been the secret sauce, but in a coronavirus-filled 2020, it is even spicier. Last year, Vic Fangio changed the Broncos scheme, and now we are starting to see his influence take hold. Denver has had the second-fewest missed tackles on the season, a Fangio staple while in Chicago. They are second in Football Outsiders’ Drive Success Rate, sixth in points and seventh in yards per drive. Kansas City is also playing solid D, fourth against the pass per DVOA and 11th in points per drive allowed. Even without the snow, this is not a great game to stack for DFS. We will look at one-offs Sunday morning when we see the weather report.
There are still three games to go for our Sunday analysis. They’ll be added by the end of Saturday. Check back for the full rundown.
TEN -1.5. O/U: 50.5
TEN: 26 | PIT: 24.5
Pace and Play-Calling
TEN plays at a fast pace this season, 28.21 seconds per play in neutral situations (3rd), and then crank it up to 23.53 seconds p/p (3rd). They are still a run first team, 8th highest in neutral situations, and 7th when down by 3+. Pitt is the same, in their limited snaps when trailing (52 snaps), they have run it at the highest rate.
TENN games have gone over the total in 4 of 5, with the only exception being in DEN. They have scored the 2nd most points in the league, at 32.8 per game, after topping 40 in consecutive weeks.
This PITT D is much closer to DEN in terms of talent (18.3 PPG allowed), then they are JAX, BUFF, HOU, and MINN, four of the worst six defensive teams this season in points allowed per drive.
Pitt stays pretty constant in their pace, 13th in neutral which is about league average. They slow it down by 4 seconds per play when they are in the lead (most of the time), which is why they are 31st in overall pace.
PIT
Ben Roethlisberger is more of a game manager this season (24th in attempts p/g) then the ole’ gunslinger we saw back in the Antonio Brown days. He is 22nd in yards per attempts, which has led to a 235.6 yards per game average (24th). He has maintained a high floor, on the back of a high TD rate (9th), throwing 2 or more TDs in 4 of 5 games and two games with 3 (11 overall). That is likely to regress, as his expected TDs are 6.8. This is a terrific matchup, with the Titans ranking 28th in passing points allowed per game and 30th in TD rate. They have been brutal in the RZ, ranking dead last with an 87.50% TD rate against once teams reach the RZ.
James Conner also benefits from the Titans RZ woes, seeing 3.2 RZ touches per game (15 touches/targets per game). Last week he turned a season-high 20 carries into a 100+ and a TD, which he can easily replicate against TENN, who has been up and down this year in rush D. Conner has a touchdown in four straight games and has gone over 100 total yards in three of four games.
Diontae Johnson is set to return, which makes this a crowded situation. Johnson came out of the gate on fire, seeing 23 targets the first two games. Since then he has been banged up which paved the way for Chase Claypool. Claypool is an anomaly, scoring 6-TDs on the season, on just two RZ targets this season. Titans may get Adoree’ Jackson back, who returned to practice this week. Jackson has a chance to suit up on Sunday, but head coach Mike Vrabel revealed that the decision about Jackson’s availability won’t come down until Saturday. TENN has been a great matchup for wideouts, and I expect them to continue to do so against this group.
The issue I have with this group is target distribution, now that Chase has emerged as the target share leader (24.5%, last three games), how do things shake out with Johnson back in the lineup. You would assume James Washington is the odd man out, but he played 58% in week one so there is no guarantee this is not a 4-man rotation.
Juju Smith-Schuster has been the odd man out, only getting 16% of team targets with Johnson on the shelf (4.5 per game). His matchup is great, this is the same matchup we chased last week with Randall Cobb (2nd in slot receptions allowed). He is playing 77% out of the slot, running a pass route on 96% of Ben’s dropbacks, so it isn’t a lack of playing time. Ben just isn’’t looking his way, seeing a target on 16% of his routes.
Eric Ebron is also around to troll these WRs, out-targeting Juju 10-9 over their last two games. The Titans gave up 8-113-1 to Houston tight ends last week, and over 13 FPPG on DK this season.
TEN
In a matchup of strength vs strength, Derrick Henry squares off against the #1 rush defense. Tenn will be dealing with the loss of all-pro LT Taylor Lewan. To offset that, PITT will be without their defensive QB, with MLB Devin Bush on IR.
Henry is a usage monster (27.3 touches per game), and is getting over 7 RZ touches per game. He has such a high TD equity every week, that I would always get a minimum of 5% exposure, even in a tough spot like this. 100-yards and 2-3 scores are always in play for Henry. That said, he has not made it into my 3-Max lineups.
The Steelers are an odd pass D, they are 7th in points allowed to WRs, while 26th against QBs. They have allowed TDs to a string of outside WRs, including Rashard Higgins, Darius Slayton, Will Fuller, and Travis Fulgham. A.J. Brown seems to be dealing with his knee issue still, missing practice early this week after posting 5-56-2 against HOU. He has a 33% RZ target share, seeing two per game in his three starts.
Ryan Tannehill kept his stellar play going last week, delivering his 3rd QB1 performance in 5 games, good enough for QB6 on the season. Again, their last four opponents are about as bad as there is this season on defense, so to expect that kind of production against PITT is optimistic (8th pass dvoa, allowing the second-lowest completion rate against at 58.48%).
Corey Davis will return, and Jonnu Smith is off the injury list, making this a crowded situation as well for target distribution. Davis has received 6.3 targets per game when in the lineup, but two of those were with Brown OUT.
Adam Humphries also gets 6.5 targets per game when on the field, which again, makes usage a problem for DFS on this run-first team.
Anthony Firkser has been a breakdown favorite since last year, so I loved watching him go off for 8-113-1. I can’t see a player having that kind of success falling completely off the radar the following week, and since TENN plays 2-TE sets on 53% of plays.
The two best games by tight ends against the Steelers have been from Noah Fant (4-57-1) and Austin Hooper (5-52-0). If Smith is unable to play, Firkser is streaming TE2.
Core plays: Conner
GPP Only: AJ Brown, Henry, Ben/Juju/Claypool/AJ Brown stack
LAC -7.5. O/U: 49
LAC: 28.25 | JAX: 20.75
JAX @ LAC
JAX +7.5 O/U: 49
JAX: 20 | LAC: 29.5
Pace and Play-Calling
Jax is the league’s slowest neutral team. I suppose their hope is to get this season over with as quickly as possible, which has merit. The thing is they are always down, and they do speed it up (13th fastest when down 7+). They are also passing at the highest overall rate (68%), due to them sucking, since their neutral pass rate is just 57% (76% down 7+ over their last 3).
LAC is playing much faster this year, without Phil Rivers taking 20 seconds at the line of scrimmage on every play. They are up to 11th in neutral pace, and 5th fastest in their last three games. If the Chargers choose to copy what the Lions did last week (44.29% pass rate vs JAX), Herbert is only going to see 30-35 pass attempts (Stafford had 31 last week).
LAC is passing at the 31st lowest rate on first downs since Justin Herbert has taken over. Jags opponents pass at a 48.7% (31st lowest), setting up more rush attempts for LAC (32.4 rush attempts per game, 4th). Jaguars have allowed just 32.0 pass attempts per game (4th fewest).
What we need here is a JAX lead, because LAC flies up the pass rate ranks to 3rd (75%) once behind by a TD or more. Jags are 29th in first quarter and 28th in first half points which does not bode well for that scenario (have had a lead for 3.7% of their offensive snaps), but that is the one we want for this one to be the DFS game of the day.
JAX
Gardner Minshew is giving us volume, but the efficiency has lacked (23rd in ANY/A), ranking 24th in FP per dropback. He has been consistent, using 40+ pass attempts in five straight to finish as a top-12 QB in five of six games this season, flashing a 29 FP ceiling at Tenn. He had 417 attempted air yards last week, moving to 8th in deep-ball attempts. One thing that has really held him back are 15 WR drops this season, 4th most.
LAC has dealt with a ton of injuries on defense, but still are 9th in yards and 13th in points per drive allowed. Looking at their expected fantasy points, however, they are due for some regression. They have allowed an average of 347 passing yards in their last two games, pushing them to 3rd in fantasy points allowed to the position.
James Robinson has been victimized by the negative game scripts created by this Jax defense. He had a season-low 16 touches for 53 total yards. With the league’s highest pass rate, the RB has to suffer. He has 12.5 carries a game in his last two, and is yielding 4 targets per game to Chris Thompson. Still, he is seeing a minimum of 4 targets per game this season. LAC is giving up big production to backs in the passing game, allowing 7.8 RB catches per game. Thompson has 53 snaps to JRob’s 80 in their past two games. LAC is allowing 4.95 adjusted line yards per carry, while not allowing a rushing TD, which is a very strange combo
DJ Chark exploded last week with 14 targets, exceeding his season-high by 5 targets. He has been very volatile this season, fluctuating from WR3 to WR73 in consecutive weeks so keep him for GPP game stacks.
Keelan Cole is operating out of the slot for 70% of his routes, which puts him in another good spot with LAC allowing the 3rd most FPPG to slot WRs. I prefer Laviska Shenault’s skill-set, but Cole has out-snapped him in every game.
Injuries
Myles Jack and Tyler Eifert are OUT. Eifert was out last week also but neither James O’Shaughnessy or Tyler Davis got more than 2 targets.
LAC
Justin Herbert and Tyrod Taylor have faced the highest pressure rate on the season. Besides the Chargers high rush rate, there is nothing else preventing Herbert from smashing the Jax pass D. Herbert has scored 19.7 or more fantasy points in all of his starts, tossing nine touchdown passes over his first four games, adding another with his legs. His 8.7 YPA is 4th, his pressure completion rate is 6th, and has 15 “money throws” per player profiler (2nd). Jaguars are 31st in passing defense EPA and 27th in passing points allowed per attempt, allowing a league-worst 73.44% completion rate against.
Justin Jackson took over for Austin Ekeler’s role, playing 42 snaps to 25 for Joshua Kelley, and seeing a season-high 6 targets (2 for Kelley). Jax is equally bad against the rush, allowing 27.7 FPPG to backs on FanDuel. Kelley has not looked good in his early-down rushing back role, but in fairness, he ran into the Bucs and Saints (2nd and 5th in adjusted line yards). These two backs should collectively go off here, with Jax allowing a league-worst 174.3 rush yards a game over their last three. Jackson is nursing a knee injury but practiced in full on FRI
Hunter Henry takes on a Jaguars team that has allowed five touchdowns to tight ends and 10.6 yards per target (31st). He hasn’t done much with Herbert, seeing his yardage decline in every game. The 8-targets he saw last week were with Keenan Allen playing 17% of snaps, and his bigger games in the early part of the season were when Mike Williams was either banged up or OUT.
Keenan Allen is back and is horribly mispriced on DraftKings at $6.2k. No idea why him getting hurt (after 2-29-1) warranted a price reduction prior to one of the best matchups on the slate. Allen saw a 38.3% target share in his first three games with Herbert, though two of those were without Big Mike Williams. I would assume it falls down to earth a bit, but when you start at 38% that’s ok. Jax has allowed the 4th most FP to slot WRs, simply unable to stop QBs from completing passes (32nd pass DVOA). When factoring in price, Allen is my #1 WR on DK in his matchup with Tre Herndon.
I am a BIG Mike Williams fan (pun intended). The 6’4” Williams should take advantage of Sidney Jones on the outside, which is another reason why I think Herbert is such a good play. The Jags are so bad, and Herbert is playing so well, he will likely hit 20 FP even if the script goes against him.
Core plays: Allen, Herbert
GPP Only: I like this as a game stack, it goes off or falls flat, there is no middle ground with this one. I will be submitting one of all these combos in lower $ GPPs, and Chargers stack 1 in a higher dollar tournament.
Chargers Stack 1 – Herbert-Allen
Chargers Stack 2 – Herbert-Jackson-Allen-Cole
Chargers Stack 3 – Herbert-Williams-Allen-Chark
Jax Stack 1 – Minshew-Cole-Chark-Allen
Jax Stack 2 – Minshew-Robinson-Cole-Allen
Jax Stack 3 – Minshew-Chark-Shenault -Allen
TB -4. O/U: 51.5
TB: 27.75 | LV: 23.75
**This game is only on DraftKings**
TB
Buccaneers are 21st in neutral pace, Raiders 22nd. I think Tampa should be able to control this game with their #1 ranked defense, playing a Raiders team that struggles to stop, well, everything. They are 31st in DVOA, 29th in yards and 31st in points per drive.
TB passes at the 6th highest rate in neutral situations, LV is 30th. We know the Raiders want to grind the run/clock and use play-action for an explosive play here and there while feeding Darren Waller. It is not a big secret, it is what Gruden does. If they get behind, he will speed things up a bit (60%, 25th).
TB will slow things up once they get a big lead, a script we saw last week. Brady had just 27 pass attempts, by far his low for the year (37.2 per game). This is always the risk when you have a really good defense, if the game gets out of reach, it’s run the ball and grind clock time (35% rate in the second half last week).
Leonard Fournette is “good to go,” said coach Bruce Arians. Fournette missed Weeks 4 and 6 with an ankle injury and played only one snap in Week 5. “He’s good to go,” Arians said. “He’s practiced fully. He’ll reassume his role. He’s ready to go.”
That could be a bummer for Ronald Jones, who has rushed for 100+ yards in three consecutive games. I want to assume that kind of stellar play is good enough to hold the keep the same workload, and Fournette slips into the Vaughn role of 5-7 touches per game, but that would be assuming rational coaching, which can get you into trouble, especially with Bruce Arians. That said, I still like Jones in this spot in GPPs, as a very off the radar back that can easily go for another 100 and a couple of scores against this Raiders defense that is allowing 5.2 adjusted line and RB yards per carry (3rd most FPPG to RBs).
Mike Evans does not like having Chris Godwin active this year. A lot of it happens to be matchup based, but you can’t ignore 4-of-10 targets for 14 yards in the three games they played together. Evans has been banged up with a hamstring so it maybe some of that as well. Regardless, I am off of him, even in this plus matchup.
Godwin also has a plus matchup and is my choice if you are looking for a TB WR, but I have not been able to get him on a 3-Max. There are just so many WRs I am in love with this week, that Godwin falls outside the top-10.
(my top-10 WRs on the slate, price factored in)
– K. Allen
– Diggs
– Mclaurin
– Kenny G
– Lockette
– Adams
– Nuk
– Julio
– Metcalf
– Cooks
LV
The Bucs are really good, so on a slate with so many bad defenses (ATL, NYJ, SEA, DAL, JAX, etc), I have not been putting any Raiders in my lineup, other than some Darren Waller, on a fairly thin TE slate.
Waller is second in TE targets per game (9.2) and first in TE target share (27.5%). As I said, the matchup is not good, but he is so talented and is getting such a huge usage rate, he is worth the risk in a script that should see them passing at some point.
Core Plays: Jones, Waller
GPP Only: TB D, Godwin
SEA -3.5. O/U: 54.5
SEA: 29 | ARZ: 25.5
Pace and Play-Calling
SEA is playing much faster this year, 26.4 seconds in a neutral script (7th), up from 21st in 2019. They are also 4th when in a lead by +3 and +7 points (22nd in 2019). SEA is also passing more, a lot more than the 2019 edition. They are passing at a 62% rate in neutral situations (2nd), up from 50% in 2019 (30th).
AZ is going to play fast but is running much more than SEA. They are 2nd in neutral pace but pass at a 54% rate. They will stick to the run even when behind thus far, with both Kyler Murray, Kenyan Drake, and Chase Edmunds averaging 32.5 rush attempts per game (4th lowest pass rate when down 7+). Still, with the elevated pace, Kyler is 10th in pass attempts as well. That will be tested this week, with SEA averaging 33.8 PPG on 60 plays p/g (28th). With the offensive output and a pass funnel D (29th pass, 9th rush), SEA’s opponents have passed at the 2nd highest rate this year.
AZ is 11th in scoring at 27.7 PPG, and run 66.5 plays per game (10th). Their opponents also prefer to attack via the air, passing at a 60% rate against them this season.
AZ is second in defensive RZ rate allowed, and 1st in deep passes allowed, which will be put to the test against Russ, who has passed for 8 touchdowns of 15+ yards.
SEA
Russell Wilson is expensive, up to $8k on DK, and $8.7k on FD. The thing with this slate is there is so much value that you should have no problem stacking this game by using Gio or Williams (or both). With so many lineups having similar RB combos this week, I will be stacking games. SEA has faced the bottom of the barrel in terms of opposing QBs, with Jimmy Garoppolo, Dwayne Haskins, Matthew Stafford, Teddy Bridgewater, Joe Flacco, and Andy Dalton so I am ignoring their stats against QBs. They are 10th in DVOA, and are better than SEA, but I don’t think any of that matters to RW3.
As you can see per Sharp Football, AZ has been lights out on deep passes this season, but vulnerable in the short to intermediate areas of the field. Russ is not like other humans, so I don’t think this is a reason to fade DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett. I do think we can attack those areas though by seeing who runs the most routes in the middle of the field.
As you can see, this should be a good spot for Tyler Lockett, running the majority of routes in the sweet spot of the AZ D. Coming off back to back down games, I expect most people to prefer DK Metcalf so hopefully, we get Lockett at a little lower ownership than usual.
D.K. Metcalf is just a few targets per game from being Megatron. After not exceeding 8 targets in a game, Metcalf was unleashed with 11 targets that yielded 6-93-2. Cards have allowed WR1 to get off this year, with Patrick Peterson no longer shadowing. Terry McLaurin (7-125-1), Jamison Crowder (8-116-1), Robby Anderson (8-99-0), Amari Cooper (7-79-1) all had nice games against this D. If you do stack Russ, play both Metcalf and Lockett.
Chris Carson is one of my favorite plays in this game. RBs come along for the ride in high-total games as much as the passing options, yet usually don’t garner the same ownership. Carson has flown under the radar a bit (unless you are Two Gun), currently the RB7 on the season, fueled by 6 TDs. He is averaging just 16.8 touches a game, which is a bit low for me, but that is priced in his $6.4k price tag. With so much ownership on the value backs, Kamara, and Hunt, backs like Carson will come in under 10%, despite playing in the primetime game with a 56.5 total.
AZ
Kyler Murray is your QB2 on the season, using 8.5 carries – 61 rush yards – 1 TD per game to become this year’s “Lamar”. The way he is getting to the edge with ease is tough to stop, especially since he has more passing skills than Lamar. This is a spot to prove that against SEA, who is 30th in yards per drive and 29th in pass DVOA. They have allowed (I had to double-check this because it did not seem possible), 370.4 passing yards a game this year (27th in YPA).
Kenyan Drake cost me $7k on that BS late run against the Cowboys, so forgive me for being short here. He is not catching passes, and in a game where they could be behind or a full-blown shootout, you are playing him for touchdowns. SEA has been solid against running backs (3.86 RB yards per carry). Seattle has allowed the 10th fewest rush attempts, so I think we see more Chase Edmunds here. He is one of my favorite plays in the showdown slate.
Deandre Hopkins is on track to play after getting in a limited Friday practice. This is likely the “superstar treatment”, and his ankle is fine. Hopkins has a 32% target share through Arizona’s first six games, one of only four players with a 30%+ target share (Allen, Crowder, Theilen being the other three). Coming off a two catch game, I think his ownership will be fairly low considering the spot he is in.
Christian Kirk is running deep routes on the boundary and is not seeing a ton of volume, so there will be extreme volatility with him (5 targets per game). I am seeing a lot of people putting him in Kyler stacks, which has me wanting to fade. With Kyler doing so much with his legs, I don’t need to connect him with his #2 WR. Pay up for NUK in your Kyler stacks.
Core plays: Kyler, Lockett, Nuk, Metcalf
GPP Only: RW3, Carson, Kirk
SUNDAY AM UPDATE
Top Stacks:
SEA/AZ
GB/HOU
DET/ATL
Honorable Mention – JAX/LAC
CASH Core (FD): Kyler – Williams – Diggs- Keenan – F1 – Hunt – WASH
CASH Core (DK): Kyler – Gio – Williams – Keenan – Adams – F1 – WASH
The guys I have a lot of not in the CASH CORE (3-Max + SE):
LOCKETT/DK/CARSON
Kenny G + Julio,
Cooks/Fells (HOU STACKS)
Lots of Herbert Stacks. He is my QB2 after Kyler
Using Njoku as a punt on FD. Godspeed.
Underweight – All Cowboys, Green, Cole, KC offense, Ridley, David Johnson, Fuller
Low(er) owned one-offs: Gibson (after the big-3 to 4 RBs in terms of ownership, I don’t think any will be too popular), Boyd, McKinnon, Robby Anderson
