Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to The Breakdown for Week 1, a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.
I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 1.
#FTNDaily
All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.
“GPP only” plays that are not in BOLD are for MME only. BOLD CORE plays are the players I will have the most exposure to.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
JAX -2.5 @ HOU, O/U 45.5
Implied team totals: JAX 24, HOU 21.5
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
In terms of pace, I think the Jaguars will be league average in neutral and faster when behind (what a hot take, right?). I say it for a reason though. We will likely see a pretty big split between pass rate, pace depending on the score, unlike some teams that stay somewhat consistent in their approach. If Jacksonville gets up by a score or more against this putrid Houston team and grinds the clock it will be tough for D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones to all reach value.
Jacksonville
Urban Meyer is in the NFL and I assume the coach will want to feature the rushing attack with James Robinson and a little Carlos Hyde. The thing that makes this offense so hard to handicap is offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, who we have seen (recently) do the opposite, calling an aggressive passing offense with Matthew Stafford taking seven deep shots a game. To put that in perspective, Patrick Mahomes averaged 4.8 deep passes over the last two seasons.
James Robinson has played just one game with Jacksonville as the favorite, and he ripped off 129 total yards and two TDs for 31 fantasy points. For those concerned with Carlos Hyde, it’s OK, he will get 30-35% of snaps, but if Jacksonville controls the game, Robinson should be a lock for 15-20 touches.
Robinson will benefit from running behind an offensive line that returns all five starters. Last year he had 54 rushes off left tackle for 5.5 YPC, by far the most efficient for him. Look for him to rip apart this Houston defense on similar runs (off the left tackle) against Whitney Mercilus and Maliek Collins, two players who finished with a bottom-five PFF rush D grade. On 96 similar runs against the Houston right side last season, they allowed 16 runs of 10-plus yards and 7 YPC overall (5.55 RB YPC overall).
Back to the WRs, who are going to be popular. Bradley Roby was one of the lone bright spots on this unit, and he was shipped to New Orleans. That leaves Terrance Mitchell, Vernon Hargreaves (our old DFS friend) and Desmond King to start at CB.
Houston
With a potentially endless deficit on the scoreboard this season, Houston should end up with a high pass rate again (I’m trying to find a positive). It won’t be pretty, but there should be volume for Brandin Cooks. He is priced right at $5.3K on DraftKings and has a beatable matchup against these Jacksonville CBs regardless of where he lines up. The problem I keep running into is there are too many WRs to play on this slate, which has him miss the cut in three-max and single-entry. I will be making 150 lineups and multi-entering so will have him in some of the Jacksonville stacks.
Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson in an offense that should fall behind is brutal for fantasy. Johnson is the guy if you are looking for a pass-catching run back on a Jacksonville stack — I would not be surprised to see him in the top three in team target share when it’s all done. He is mispriced given the current state of affairs in Houston and there is no requirement to run it back with an RB.
Texans tight end Pharaoh Brown was named the starter instead of Jordan Akins, but I am guessing both see plenty of snaps. Tyrod Taylor likes throwing to the TE — he did to Charles Clay in Buffalo, and in his one start in Los Angeles he targeted Hunter Henry eight times — but without knowing the plan with these two it is a fade.
Jeff Driskel was released, leaving rookie Davis Mills (third-round rookie) one play away from running this hot mess.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
James Robinson (Playing on both, prefer on FD)
I’m OK with Marvin Jones in cash, but I am not using him. With Jones and Robinson popular, a Trevor Lawrence/Laviska Shenault/D.J. Chark stack is something I will be doing as a hedge in a three-max. Shenault is my favorite of the three if looking for a one-off.
Low-dollar GPP/multi-entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans
TEN -2.5 vs. ARZ, O/U 45.5
Implied team totals: TEN 24, ARZ 21.5
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
Per Derek Brown, “This could be one of the highest-paced games of the slate … Cardinals ranked first … Titans were sixth (neutral).
This game is not going to sneak up on anyone — it has been priced up to a 54 total at some books and the public continues to pound the over.
Arizona
The split we have all heard this summer is Kyler Murray pre- and post-injury, which led to his production falling off from QB1 status, averaging 67 rush yards and 3 TDs per game (31.3 FPPG on DK) to 30.7 rush yards and 1.4 TDs.
More from our FTN Daily splits tool: Murray scored 9.75 more fantasy points per game at home last season and 5.25 more at home in his career. I still love him in this spot, but I found it interesting and will be something to keep an eye on.
Per PFF, the Arizona offensive line has the No. 1 pass-blocking advantage over a DL that finished 31st in adjusted sack rate. No pass rush and a weak secondary that is starting a rookie and second-year CB is a recipe for disaster against DeAndre Hopkins and rookie slot WR Rondale Moore.
Moore is a player I have become enamored with over the summer. He’s a physical freak who can squat 600 pounds despite being 5-foot-7 and 180 pounds. This guy is just different — he runs after the catch like someone who is 225 pounds, yet has 94th percentile speed, burst, and agility (per Player Profiler).
Moore is the guy who can take this offense to the next level as they really missed an Option 2 behind Hopkins. I know they also acquired the artist formally known as A.J. Green and still have Christian Kirk, but it is Moore who will emerge as the WR2 (Moore was targeted on 25% of his routes and got three carries in limited work this preseason).
Chase Edmonds is set up well if this game becomes the shootout we all want and deserve. As an underdog last year, Edmonds saw his production spike by 4.7 fantasy points per game, which is a similar split to the high total games (+50) he has appeared in. Edmonds is going to be popular in Tennessee stacks as a runback.
Don’t forget about James Conner, who takes over as the new Kenyan Drake in this offense, meaning the RB to handle the majority of the groundwork and especially at the goal line, which, along with Murray’s legs, caps Edmonds’ ceiling — per Sharp Football, Edmonds has one goal-line rush attempt in his career. I write often about these TD-scoring RBs in high-total games being wrongly forgotten. They are the player everyone tilts the hardest on Twitter, as everyone stacks the QB/WRs/TEs, and the pass-catching RB and leaves out the player who could get 10-14 carries and multiple scores thanks to frequent scoring opportunities. Last season, Tennessee allowed 4 red-zone trips per game (30th).
Tennessee
Tennessee was second in offensive points per drive last year, behind only Green Bay. Yes, they have a new offensive coordinator, but you don’t change up a scheme that was working so effectively. I expect to see an increase in the pass rate for Ryan Tannehill, but that is more due to the defense being so bad and the script dictating it.
A.J. Brown has sexy splits in these high-total games situations. In 12 games with a total of at least 50 points, Brown is averaging 7.75 targets for 5.42 receptions, 83.17 yards and 0.92 TDs for more than 20 fantasy points per game. That is 7.65 more points per game than the 18 games with a sub-50 point total.
Arizona was league average against the run, 17th in adjusted line yards, 17th in rushing points allowed per game and 18th in RB yards per carry.
We have seen Derrick Henry get scripted out when Tennessee falls behind, but in general, the high total is also a boost for the King (just like James Conner above). In 11 games with a total of at least 50 and Ryan Tannehill under center, Henry has averaged 135 rush yards and 1.27 TDs per game for a boost of 4 fantasy points per game to his 19.12-point average.
Julio Jones and Brown should absolutely destroy these AZ corners. They are actually rolling out 5-foot-10, 33-year-old veteran Robert Alford, who has not seen the field since 2018, when he allowed 2.40 FP per target. Opposite Alford is fourth-round rookie Marco Wilson.
Brown will be over 10% ownership, but Jones and Tannehill are projected to be sub-5%, making this one of my favorite stacks on the slate.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Rondale Moore, Kyler Murray, Ryan Tannehill/A.J. Brown/Julio Jones, Derrick Henry, DeAndre Hopkins, Chase Edmonds, A.J. Green, James Conner, Anthony Firkser
Stack this game and then stack it again. I may enter a three-max with three Arizona/Tennessee game-stack combos.
Low-dollar GPP/multi-entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
As I mentioned, stack this game and then stack it again. Everyone is in play and the guys listed above are all good as one-offs in other stacks.
Green Bay vs. New Orleans (in Jacksonville)
GB -3.5 vs. NO, O/U 50
Implied team totals: GB 26.75, NO 23.25
The game is being played in Jacksonville and will feature typical Florida weather — hot and humid with a chance of a thunderstorm.
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
Both these teams were slow in neutral situations, with both of their QBs taking their time between plays. I don’t see much changing with the same coordinators in place.
The Saints have gone more run-heavy over the past two seasons, and I expect that to continue.
Green Bay plays slow in all situations, but it did not hurt their productivity, finishing as the top-scoring offense and the third-best yards per play. They will cut their pass rate from 58% to 48% once they get a TD lead, so if you are stacking this, you want New Orleans to get the big early lead and get Aaron Rodgers in catch-up mode (69% pass rate down at least 7).
The Saints averaged 32.08 PPG with Drew Brees and 23.75 without him in 2020.
Green Bay
Pass rush specialist Za’Darius Smith is the significant injury after being held Friday.
Q: Should you worry about Marshon Lattimore covering WR1 Davante Adams?
A: NO (pun intended)
Lattimore only shadowed three times last year, and unless it was Mike Evans, it was not very effective. He actually finished 56th overall in fantasy points per target after playing the right side on 72% of snaps. Adams lined up as the LWR on 36%, playing nearly the same amount at all three WR positions (per FTN Data).
Unlike the Packers, who funnel to the run, the Saints encourage teams to attack their secondary, which is not smart/efficient. New Orleans finished second and eighth in pass rate against in the last two seasons after being great against the run (fifth and fourth in adjusted line yards per carry allowed).
Not enough is being made of Jamaal Williams’ departure for Aaron Jones in the passing game. Jones averaged 4.5 targets per game on the season but did lose 2.5 to Williams. He also saw his usage in passing situations spike with his RB2 out of the lineup. Even in A.J. Dillon’s breakout game (21 carries, 129 yards, 2 TDs) he only saw one target.
The New Orleans secondary is rolling out third-round rookie Paulson Adebo to play opposite Lattimore. He has been getting positive reviews in camp, but this is Aaron Rodgers, not Saints camp and preseason.
The Saints traded for Bradley Roby (though he’s suspended Week 1) and signed Desmond Trufant, which tells us they are not ready to roll Adebo out as the starter.
Adebo and slot CB Chauncey Gardner-Johnson will need the Saints pass rush to get Rodgers uncomfortable since he finished with the highest clean pocket passer rating.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (who led the league in drop percentage and yards per reception) is a guy you want in your Rodgers stacks with Adams. He had five games with at least 17 points on DK and six games with under 2.0.
Valdes-Scantling has been the hyped player in Green Bay’s camp. He is 26 and in a contract season, so it makes sense he is getting his shit together. He gets the advantage of being left in single coverage with Adams and Jones soaking up the attention, which creates opportunities for Rodgers to take advantage of his 96th percentile speed score (per Player Profiler).
Allen Lazard and Robert Tonyan are the other two guys to put in your “groups” on the FTN Daily DFS optimizer with Rodgers, Adams, Jones and MVS.
Randall Cobb is also back in Green Bay, but I can’t imagine he is getting any looks inside the 20 and thus has a very low ceiling.
New Orleans
The Saints have not restructured their offensive scheme, it is still a Sean Payton-led offense and that means RB targets. They have been in the top three for the past four seasons in RB target share and now have a paper-thin WR core with Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith OUT. That means Alvin Kamara is the actual WR1. In eight games without Thomas in the lineup, Kamara is averaging 7 receptions for 70.25 receiving yards on 8.62 targets (31 fantasy points per game). Green Bay’s scheme sets up well for Kamara — they focus more on taking away WRs and big plays and have a mediocre LB group. That has led to them allowing (exactly) 90 RB catches for the last two seasons and a lot of yards (per carry) on the ground.
I try not to look at football “BvP,” as schemes and players/situations/broken plays can manipulate stats. That said, you can’t help but notice what Kamara did in this same spot last season (vs. GB, without Michael Thomas), catching 13 passes on 14 targets for 139 yards and 2 receiving TDs. Kamara is a top-three RB this week, both in my ranks and in ownership.
Jaire Alexander allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game last season among all CBs and was graded first by PFF. He only shadowed four times last season and did not after Week 7. That said, Green Bay brought in a new defensive coordinator that should use more man coverage and thus Alexander ends up sticking to a team’s best WR. We have seen Mike Evans disappear in the past against tough man coverage with Jameis Winston under center, so I will not be eating the Marquez Callaway chalk in GPPs. The WR position is volatile without a new QB and shut down CB so unless it is an elite talent in a smash spot it is best to fade. I like Callaway and I like the opportunity he should get, but this is DFS and we can’t roll out chalk WRs with no track record in the pros.
Strategy note: Keep in mind when you fade a player, it is OK for him to score fantasy points. I promise it is. We will play someone in his stead and we’re fine as long as we don’t whiff while the chalk hits. This is more of a mental health note than DFS strategy. It’s OK to tilt, just tilt smart.
Juwan Johnson made the team as a TE, but with Adam Trautman back he will play snaps at WR. Neither of these guys is “necessary,” but I am a Trautman stan so he would be my preference if you are looking for a low-owned run-back in a GB stack or are stacking Winston.
WRs Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith and CB Ken Crawley are OUT. Newly acquired CB Bradley Roby is suspended for Week 1.
Latavius Murray was released, making Tony Jones the RB2. Dwayne Washington is next in line, and we may see some Ty Montgomery, though he has been practicing as a WR.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Marquez Callaway: If you want to hedge the fade you can put him on one of your three-max teams. I am still debating using him in optimal cash lineup I release Sunday morning.
Low-dollar GPP/multi-entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
Aaron Jones, Aaron Rodgers/Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Robert Tonyan/Allen Lazard, Jameis Winston/Marquez Callaway/Juwan Johnson (if you are playing 150, you don’t have to full fade Callaway. I personally am full fading in all the formats listed above)
Cleveland @ Kansas City
KC -5.5 vs. CLV, O/U 54.5
Implied team totals: KC 30, CLV 24.5
Injury notes
- Odell Beckham was limited (knee) all week. He’s listed as questionable.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle, full practice) is expected to play in Week 1.
- Austin Blythe (C) has been ruled out (abdomen). Rookie Creed Humphrey will get the start at center.
- Frank Clark (DE) has been limited all week (hamstring). He’s been listed as questionable.
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
A sharp contrast in playcalling between the two teams, with fast-paced (third in neutral pace, 2020) and pass-happy KC vs. slower, run-first CLV (25th pace, fifth-highest rush rate)
Cleveland passed at a 61% rate when trailing by just 3 or more points and 44% when up by 3-plus.
The Browns increased their pass rate in neutral situations down the stretch, passing at 47% in Weeks 1-12 compared to 62% in Weeks 13-19 (including playoffs)
Cleveland
Baker Mayfield was underrated last season, with improved efficiency numbers across the board. He does melt under pressure, though, seeing his A/YPA get cut in half when under duress. KC was a top-10 blitz team and I expect to see a lot of the same Sunday. Luckily, the Browns have their offensive line at full strength, while Frank Clark is banged up. If this turns into a shootout, Baker has enough juice, finishing last season with three games with 30-plus fantasy points. In those three ceiling games, the average points scored in those games was 78.7 points (not a misprint).
Nick Chubb is a sick talent, but in a game where I expect script to favor the passing game, he is a tough sell in a single entry with a healthy Kareem Hunt and so many great RB plays on the board. Chubb always seems to fit in that category, which is why his ownership is usually low. We have him projected under 5% roster percentage, making him a terrific larger-field GPP play given his immense upside and big-play ability (six games of 21.6 FP or more on DK).
Rashard Higgins returned to a full practice, which makes Donovan Peoples-Jones a little riskier, though I do have a couple of shares of the big second-year WR in the Milly Maker after he won the third WR spot in camp. He is a perfect complement to Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry, so I hope they use him as a true WR3.
Kansas City
Pressure is the key, and Kansas City went out and did the right thing by addressing the offensive line.
Patrick Mahomes was banged up last year, which is indicated in his passer rating (per PFF). In Weeks 1-13, Mahomes had an 86 passer rating under pressure. That fell to 56 over his last eight games. He also saw his clean pocket rating fall 18 points over that span.
Travis Kelce brings a 7.5-reception and 90-yard prop into this one, which is insane for anyone, much less a TE. He is expensive on both sites but will be on at least one of my three-max teams and possibly in the optimal given all the value at WR.
Considering Tyreek Hill and Mahomes having a combined upside of 70-plus fantasy points, they are coming in as a contrarian stack (approximately 10-13% roster percentage in our projections). Again, there is a ton of value all over the board so I will be getting a “Big 3” stack in a high-dollar GPP (or two).
Don’t be scared to stack Clyde Edwards-Helaire with Mahomes in your game stacks. The data has shown QB/RB stacks with high-powered offenses is a viable strategy.
Mecole Hardman is a tease — so fast, tied to Mahomes, yet he never seems to get out of this same role. I have him in my KC player pool for MME but that is it.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Travis Kelce/Tyreek Hill/Patrick Mahomes
Low-Dollar GPP/multi-entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
Nick Chubb (OK as a one-off), Baker Mayfield/Odell Beckham/Jarvis Landry/Donovan Peoples-Jones, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Mecole Hardman, Kareem Hunt (I am only using the last two players in Mahomes stacks)
Philadelphia @ Atlanta
ATL -3.5 vs. PHI, O/U 48.5
Implied team totals: ATL 26, PHI 22.5
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
This game ranks behind just Arizona/Tennessee for pace and expected pass rates. Both teams were good against the rush (Philly third, Atlanta 13th in rush DVOA), which pushed teams to a higher pass rate, at least until the game was in control. Atlanta finished with the second-highest pass rate against and Philadelphia, well, they were so stinky that teams didn’t really need to pass, even if it was more efficient (15th in pass DVOA). This is the suboptimal way to build a defense, as I talk about weekly. Good against the run just means you are punishing your bad secondary.
This game has two new defensive coordinators implementing new schemes — yet another reason to stack it.
Philadelphia
Think all the way back to Week 9 of last year when we were able to go all in against this pitiful Atlanta secondary and pass rush with Drew Lock, a guy who couldn’t win a starting spot as the incumbent against Teddy Bridgewater this preseason, and Lock went for 33 points on DraftKings. Yes, that is just how bad this Atlanta defense is—and they may have gotten worse this offseason.
Enter Jalen Hurts, a “Konami Code” QB (68 rush yards per game in four starts) with a new WR1 and a healthy offensive line (for at least the first quarter). If you aren’t paying up for Kyler Murray, Hurts is the pivot who can easily match him in production at half the ownership and $1k less.
DeVonta Smith is a baller. The year he had last year in the SEC was just ridiculous (1,850 receiving yards and 23 TDs on a 34% target share in 12 games at Alabama). I talk about college production often as an indicator for success in the pros, so if you are discounting him due to his size and the weight you are doing it wrong.
Dallas Goedert’s splits with and without Zach Ertz are very similar, but he is a GPP-only play with both active.
Miles Sanders is interesting in this high-total game at very low ownership. Per PFF, this OL/DL run matchup is the second-best on the slate and Sanders averaged 15.33 attempts for 80 rush yards and 3 scores with Hurts at QB. He could easily pop for 100-plus and a couple of scores. Get him in your player pool as a one-off, and I am OK to stack him with Hurts even though they are somewhat negatively correlated. I would only do this in a full game stack where you are hoping for 45-42 and you are (in theory) buying 5-6 TDs.
Atlanta
I don’t know if this Philadelphia defense is as bad as everyone thinks. They had so many injuries on this side of the ball as well yet still finished in the top five in adjusted sack rate.
Pressure is Matt Ryan’s Achilles heel, who goes into the season with another bad offensive line. We want continuity and experience on the line, and the Falcons are rolling out youth in a new system with a QB who needs a clean pocket.
Russell Gage (10 targets per game in two games last year without Julio Jones ) quietly finished the season averaging 13.83 PPR points per game in his last seven games after 8.74 in his first nine. Gage saw 8.29 targets and upped his yardage to 58 yards per game. I really like him as a very sneaky runback on our Philadelphia stacks. You have to assume the vast majority will have Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts in the stack, which will give this lineup some uniqueness. Eagles slot CB Avonte Maddox was PFF’s worst-graded corner in 2020. Again. PFF grades are subjective, but grading out 121 of 121 is a good sign the player is #NotGood.
Calvin Ridley is so good and gets elite volume, so we don’t need to worry about Darius Slay, who allowed a healthy 1.76 fantasy points per target in coverage last season. His ownership is high — I expect about 20%, which gives me pause to play him over (similarly owned) Davante Adams and especially Tyreek Hill. I can also make a case for DK Metcalf, A.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs and Keenan Allen given their prices and/or lower ownership.
Diggs versus Ridley is the true struggle, with both at the same price and ownership. Given he is home, in the dome, in a higher total, I have to give the edge to Ridley.
Do we for sure know Kyle Pitts is going to tear up the league? No. But this is DFS and gambling, and I would put a max bet down that he does indeed tear the league up from the start and we end up laughing about how ridiculous it was to play him in this matchup at $4.4k, as this will likely be his salary floor for the next decade. The public agrees with this sentiment as Pitts is very likely to be the highest-owned TE on the slate. I will have him on one or two three-max teams and likely in the optimal lineup I release tomorrow. At that price, it is hard not to project him as the highest point-per-dollar TE.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Like the Arizona/Tennessee game, we want to stack this game. I will probably have 10% of my 150 lineups (minimum) as Philadelphia/Atlanta stacks, with Hurts being on 2 of 3 of those teams.
Kyle Pitts, Jalen Hurts, Calvin Ridley, DeVonta Smith, Russell Gage, Matt Ryan, Miles Sanders
Low-dollar GPP/multi-entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
Add Mike Davis, Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert to those guys in the optimizer stacking/groups function.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
NE -3.5 vs. MIA, O/U 44
Implied team total: NE 23.75, MIA 20.25
When you are faced with a 13-game slate and you are only playing three-max or single-entry, you have to cross a lot of players and names off to settle on a lineup. This is one of those games. With this new format, if I am not attacking the game as a stack, I will not be giving it the full writeup. If you want the full breakdown, please refer to Derek Brown’s game-by-game article and/or refer to our projections.
Injury notes
- Will Fuller is sidelined by suspension this week.
- Nelson Agholor (WR) was limited Wednesday and downgraded to DNP Thursday with an ankle injury. He returned to a limited session on Friday. He’s listed as questionable.
- Jalen Mills (CB) was limited with an ankle injury Wednesday and downgraded to DNP Thursday. He returned to a limited session Friday. He’s listed as questionable.
Pace and playcalling
How Brian Flores and the new offensive coordinators call plays will be critical to this offense for fantasy and overall production. Per Football Outsiders, offensive coordinator Chan Gailey had one of the most historical shifts in their aggressiveness index, going from a top-10 aggressive offense with Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2019 to 31st in 2020. It was smart given the rookie under center and improved defense and helped in terms of a per-play efficiency standpoint.
Looking at how they approached the offseason (more below about their speed WR acquisitions), it would appear Miami is ready to go back to a more aggressive offense. If not, spending their No. 6 overall pick on Jaylen Waddle and acquiring Will Fuller will be a waste.
Miami was the 28th team in overall pace (23rd in yards per play) with a high pass rate (11th neutral, 58%). If the pace and pass rate increase to 2019 levels, this will be a fun offense to watch. All that said, we don’t have much to go on with George Godsey and Eric Studseville in terms of pay-calling, so these are all logical assumptions, which we know don’t always work out in the NFL.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Damien Harris is one of my favorite value RBs on FanDuel this week. Miami was a run funnel, allowing 132 rush yards per game in 2020 away from Miami. New England features one of the best run-blocking lines and should lean heavily on the run with Mac Jones making his pro debut against a good Miami pass rush. New England has arguably the “best run-blocking squad in the game,” per our own Brett Whitefield. New England’s line produced a league-leading 2.13 yards before contact on non-QB runs in 2020 and finished third in adjusted line yards allowed.
Low-dollar GPP/multi-entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
If Nelson Agholor is OUT, Jakobi Meyers becomes a GPP play. I am so tempted by Mac Jones as the ultra-low value QB play just to jam in Christian McCaffrey/Travis Kelce/etc., but I have yet to pull the trigger. Again, I think they lean on Harris and this offensive line/defense and that is going to cap his upside.
Jaylen Waddle has the sub-4.35 40-yard dash speed in addition to being a solid route runner who has great hands and plays bigger than his 5-foot-9, 190-pound profile would indicate. With Will Fuller OUT, Waddle should step into a healthy target share.
LA Chargers @ Washington
LAC -1 @ WAS, O/U 44.5
Implied team totals: LAC 22.75, WAS 21.75
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
This game grades out in the top five for me in expected pace and pass rate. For more details on the pace and playcalling, read our own Derek Brown’s game-by-game DFS article and use our Pace tool.
Los Angeles
Keenan Allen gets a dream matchup in the slot against 30-year-old journeyman Darryl Roberts. Roberts allowed over 2 fantasy points per target last season, which is the number I love to attack in DFS. Allen is consistently underappreciated and will be rostered at a sub-10% rate again this Sunday. He has averaged 100 receptions in his past two seasons and has two consecutive top-eight finishes. He averaged 10.5 targets per game (29.6%) last year, and they didn’t make any acquisition or draft pick to think that is going to change.
I like Justin Herbert as well in GPPs and qualifiers. Over four deep throws a game, third-best play-action completion rate, fourth in expected fantasy points and now a full complement of WRs with a healthy Mike Williams. I went into detail last playoff season that this Washington pass defense is a bit overrated, despite what DVOA says, and the team proceeded to give up 381 passing yards to Tom Brady. Washington benefited from a soft last-place schedule, playing QBs like Andy Dalton, Nick Mullens and an injured Teddy Bridgewater, to name a few. But they allowed Matthew Stafford 276-3, Kyler Murray 286-3, Lamar Jackson 250 total yards and 3 scores, Ben Roethlisberger 305-2 … you get the point).
Austin Ekeler is a fade for me coming off the hamstring injury against a tough defensive line that was top-10 in adjusted yards allowed and RB receptions allowed.
Washington
Looking at Washington offensive stats from last year is a waste of time considering the garbage the team ran out at QB.
Ryan Fitzpatrick had career-best marks in completion rate last year as Miami used him in a more conservative fashion than what we are used to with “FitzMagic.” The dude just seems to put up fantasy points — whatever team or system he ends up in, it ends up with a similar outcome. Over his last 55 games with 20-plus pass attempts, he is averaging 20.24 fantasy points per game. It gets even better recently, with him averaging 22.57 in his last 25 games.
People seem to be scared of this Chargers defense, as Fitz is projected at just 3% ownership despite being one of the better value QBs on the slate. People are more into Sam Darnold, who in his wildest dreams couldn’t average 22.57 fantasy points over nearly a two-season stretch.
Terry McLaurin is one of my favorite players in the league, so I am pumped to see him finally play with an NFL-caliber QB. They move him all over the formation so he will get to pick on all these overrated LAX CBs, including rookie Asante Samuel. Samuel is a blue-chip prospect, but I always worry about rookie CBs, even the talented ones.
With Curtis Samuel OUT, expect McLaurin and TE Logan Thomas to be very active like they were in 2020 (41% combined target share). Thomas ended with 110 targets as a checkdown option for his bad QBs. I expect his target share to stay about the same but his YPT and YPR to increase with Fitz willing to take some shots down the field. Los Angeles allowed over 2 FP per target to TEs, which sets up Thomas as a top-five TE option.
One reason the passing options will be low-owned is many are turning to Antonio Gibson as the mid-tier chalk RB. Projected around 20% ownership, this is not a play I am targeting in GPPs.
J.D. McKissic (a Breakdown favorite) is not dead and is expected to still play third downs. Gibson can and will be targeted on first and second down like last year, but to eat chalk with a running back we know is definitely going to lose passing-down work is not something I want to do. DK simply made him too cheap, which is making him land in so many projection models. I don’t hate the Gibson play in a vacuum, but this is DFS, and it is not just about projected points.
Cash, single entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Keenan Allen, Ryan Fitzpatrick/Terry McLaurin/Logan Thomas
Low-dollar GPP/multi-entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
Justin Herbert/Mike Williams/Jared Cook/Austin Ekeler are in the player pool for my 150 lineups, along with Keenan Allen. If you are not playing 150, it’s a Herbert/Allen stack.
Antonio Gibson — I will not exclude him from the player pool. I like getting exposure to the chalk I fade in my single-entry and three-max through GPPs I multi-enter. Much less painful and makes for a more enjoyable Sunday.
I will add Adam Humphries in the Fitz player grouping above.
NY Jets @ Carolina
CAR -4 vs. NYJ, O/U 43
Implied team totals: CAR 23.5, NYJ 19.5
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
A rookie QB on the road against a volatile young QB playing his first game with a new team, this game is getting a lot of attention from the DFS community. It makes sense when you look at the skill position players on each side and their prices, but I do want to preach a little caution with this one as it could be ugly as easily as it shoots out.
Carolina finished 29th in overall pace, which was the same regardless of whether Christian McCaffery was on the field. I expect them to stay conservative in that regard with their new QB, so I’m not expecting much change in terms of pace. I am expecting a higher rush rate with CMC back.
New York
Jamison Crowder is OUT, setting up Corey Davis and rookie Elijah Moore for healthy target shares in this one. Keelan Cole will also be in the mix opposite Davis, but it is Moore I have my eyes on.
I love players who were ball hogs in college — if you can’t demand targets in college, why would that change in the pros? Moore had a 30% and 35% target share in his last two seasons (84.3% catch rate, 8 TDs in eight games in 2020). He should eat up UDFA (and former CFB teammate) Myles Hartsfield, who simply does not have the speed or athleticism to hang with Moore.
Carolina
This offensive line is not very good, which is another concern for Sam Darnold, one of the worst QBs under pressure. Starting LG John Miller is OUT with COVID-19.
I love D.J. Moore and will get some shares in a full game stack and as a one-off in my 150 lineups I run with the optimizer. We have no idea how he and Darnold are going to work together, but he is so talented and gets a great primary matchup against UDFA rookie CB Isaiah Dunn
The Jets were good again against the run, as the defensive line is a strength. That said, they were terrible against the RB pass, allowing the most RB targets and second-most RB catches in 2020.
Christian McCaffrey is going to get 20-plus touches, 6-plus targets and goal-line work, and will likely post his 20-25 fantasy points. I am still debating him versus Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry at less cost, so check back for the Sunday morning update for the final verdict, but you can’t really go wrong with any of the Big Four this week as they all have great matchups.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Christian McCaffrey, Corey Davis, Elijah Moore
Low-dollar GPP/multi-entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
Sam Darnold/D.J. Moore/Robby Anderson/Terrace Marshall
Pittsburgh @ Buffalo
BUF -6.5 vs. PIT, O/U 48.5
Implied team totals: BUF 27.5, PIT 21
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
Be sure to check out our new pace and play-calling tool.
This game has a large range of outcomes. If the Steelers get a lead, they are going to want to grind the clock and run the ball. If they fall behind, we know Ben Roethlisberger will chuck it still (65% neutral pass rate, first).
This game has the highest combined pace when looking at 2020 totals.
Buffalo had the highest pass rate when up by at least 7. The Bills are going to attack via the air no matter what the situation.
If you like WR targets, this is your game — Buffalo finished first and Pittsburgh fourth, both targeting receivers at a more than 70% rate.
Pittsburgh
I know Najee Harris is Derek Brown’s guy this week, and I think he made a strong case. My reasons to fade are this: He can and likely will get targets if the script does against him, but as I pointed out, this offense runs through the 3 WRs, so it is conceivable he falls short. The second issue is the offensive line, which sucks. Going into a loud Bills stadium, as an underdog, in his first game in the league gives us some paths to a successful fade in our single-entry contests.
I like all three Pittsburgh WRs individually and drafted them all in best ball, but this seems like a JuJu Smith-Schuster matchup. There has been talk he will play more outside this season, but I still think he is the slot guy on three-receiver sets. That gives him the best matchup against this Bills scheme that we know can be attacked inside with slot WRs.
Buffalo
Emmanuel Sanders is the news we are waiting for after being limited this week in practice. Either way, I assume his snaps to be limited as the new guy coming off limited practice reps. This puts (another) value WR, Gabriel Davis, in our player pool (best tied to Josh Allen; I won’t have him as a one-off).
Davis finished with a ridiculous 19% TD rate last season (7 TDs on 62 targets). That is an unsustainable rate, especially if his targets increase, but that does not mean we don’t love this guy. He is another one who was a target hog in college, seeing 133 in 12 games before entering the league last year. He actually matched his YPR from that season in his rookie campaign, averaging 17.1 YPR, which, along with red-zone looks, makes him a great low-owned GPP stack target (under 2%).
The other solid low-owned play to put in your Josh Allen group is Cole Beasley. None of these WRs has “plus” matchups, as Cameron Sutton, Ahkello Witherspoon and Joe Haden combine to make a top-three secondary, but Josh Allen and this offense are just that good. With the rules that protect WRs and QBs, I don’t think there are many (if any) shutdown Ds anymore. Pittsburgh allowed multiple TD passes in eight of 16 games (25 total).
Stefon Diggs is riding an eight-game streak with at least 7 receptions in each. If you are worried about rolling him out against the Steel Curtain, please don’t. Last year when Allen had an off game, Diggs saw 14 targets and posted a modest 10-130-1 line for 32.1 FPPG.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Stefon Diggs, Najee Harris (I am going to hedge this in a high-dollar GPP out of my respect for DB, but am fading in single-entry and three-max)
Low-dollar GPP/multi-entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
Josh Allen/Cole Beasley/Gabriel Davis, JuJu Smith-Schuster
Minnesota @ Cincinnati
MIN -3 @ CIN, O/U 48
Implied team totals: MIN 25.5, CIN 22.5
For more in-depth analysis on this matchup, be sure to read Derek Brown’s game-by-game DFS breakdown.
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
Minnesota finished first in adjusted line yards allowed per carry both on offense (good) and defense (bad).
Cincinnati can’t rush the passer and Kirk Cousins was first in YPA when kept clean.
Minnesota
Many may not realize, but this Minnesota offense racked up 409.3 yards per game and was fifth in Football Outsiders offensive DSR metric (drive success).
The offensive line is a source of conflict at FTN Data — I say they finished first in FO’s adjusted line yards, my guy Brett Whitefield says that is an RB stat and the credit should go to Dalvin Cook.
Cook is the RB1 this week on FanDuel, with a team committed to the run and feeding him the rock, but also willing to give him targets if they fall behind, Cook is the closest thing we have to Christian McCaffrey other than Christian McCaffrey and comes at a $1k discount on FD.
The Bengals did not make significant upgrades to a unit that allowed the second-most carries to gain 10-plus yards. Cincinnati allowed 5.34 RB yards per carry (excluding QB carries, which is important since Lamar Jackson owns them).
Trae Waynes is OUT, which leaves Chidobe Awuzie, the guy who allowed nearly 2.5 fantasy points per target on a 72% catch rate and a 130 passer rating against Justin Jefferson.
If you think it may get better for Cincinnati, you would be wrong. On the other side is our old pal, Eli Apple, who allowed 2.3 fantasy points per target. Both Jefferson and Adam Thielen are firmly in play.
Cincinnati
Minnesota DE Danielle Hunter and defensive tackle Michael Pierce missed 2020, which is a big reason the defensive line struggled so badly. The Vikings added two more defensive linemen in Dalvin Tomlinson and Sheldon Richardson but will be without Anthony Barr for Week 1.
A possible negative gamescript, an improved Minnesota defensive line and 20% ownership have me off Joe Mixon on a primary lineup. He can catch passes, but so can 10 other backs on the slate not sitting at 20%.
I am going to have some Tee Higgins, as he is mispriced on DK and gets a primary matchup against Patrick Peterson, who, unlike Higgins, is well past his prime. Higgins moved all over the formation.
Bashaud Breeland is a big pick up for this D. Breeland finished in the top-10 in fantasy points per target and catch rate allowed.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins/Jefferson/Adam Thielen/Cook stack, Tee Higgins
Low-dollar GPP/multi-entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
Joe Mixon (my old rule — if I fade chalk in single-entry/three-max, I get some shares elsewhere to soften the blow for the times I am wrong)
The script could lead to a ton of pass attempts for Joe Burrow. I will have some game stacks with him and Higgins, Mixon and a little Tyler Boyd and Ja’Marr Chase.
Seattle @ Indianapolis
SEA -1 @ IND, O/U 50
Implied team totals: SEA 25.5, IND 24.5
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
Seattle ranked 12th in pace and ninth in passing rate (neutral). The Colts were slow and likely will be again. New Seattle OC Shane Waldron is supposed to pick up the pace and pass rate, but we have heard that many times before.
Seattle
Seattle’s splits for half the season are well documented — they let Russell Wilson cook, and then they made him eat frozen burritos, reverting back to the same old slow, rush-first ways of old. Ideally, we want Indianapolis to get a lead, which is always the way to get GPP-winner Russ. It seems like he is the wild card in every slate he is in, with the potential to throw up a 30-spot against anyone. He is expected to be sub-5%, which along with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett (both sub-10%) is a very attractive stack.
The other guy I will be playing in the stack is (my guy) Gerald Everett. If you read the breakdown, you know I am all about Everett and his elite profile. Rumor is his head was the issue in LA, but at age 27 he has seen the light in Seattle (supposedly) and is now tied to one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game (he is, trust me). They have been said to be hanging out, going to church events, etc., which is how Lockett became his bestie. It is not a great matchup, but if you are stacking Russ he is a viable second or third option.
CB Xavier Rhodes is OUT, which means Metcalf is going to beat up on Rock Ya-Sin in coverage. Ya-Sin allowed a 70% catch rate in coverage and nearly 2 fantasy points per target.
Indianapolis
I am not on Indianapolis with Carson Wentz at QB.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
High-dollar GPP — Russell Wilson/Tyler Lockett/Gerald Everett (DK Metcalf is the guy as a one-off)
Low-dollar GPP/multi-entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
Adding Chris Carson to the pool (2%) in case this thing blows out. With T.Y. Hilton OUT, I don’t mind Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell in GPPs (5% or lower).
Denver @ NY Giants
DEN -5 @ NYG, O/U 41.5
Implied team totals: DEN 23.25, NYG 18.25
When you are faced with a 13-game slate and you are only playing 3-Max or single entry you have to cross a lot of players and names off to settle on a lineup. This is one of those games. With this new format, if I am not attacking the game as a stack, I will not be giving it the full attention as the other games. If you want the full breakdown, please refer to Derek’s article.
Injuries
- Evan Engram logged DNPs all week and is out.
- Saquon Barkley’s workload is in question, but he’s been able to participate in a limited fashion with no setbacks. He’s listed as questionable for this game.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Jerry Jeudy — No one stands to benefit from Teddy Bridgewater getting the gig more than Jeudy, who had the 106th catchable target rate. Bridgewater finished as the second-most accurate QB last season, most accurate on short passes. Jeudy could easily exceed value on DK at $4.5k. This Giants D was a bit lucky last season, finishing 22nd in pass DVOA (19th overall) and ninth in points allowed, and Adoree’ Jackson has not been healthy in nearly two seasons (assuming James Bradberry stays home or with Courtland Sutton).
Low-dollar GPP/multi-entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 lineups)
With Engram OUT, both Sterling Shepard and Kenny Golladay should be busy. Golladay is the guy to use with his 6-foot-4, 220-pound profile against the (much) smaller Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby.
I am enamored with Javonte Williams and have been drafting him all over the place in best ball. Given his talent and big-play ability, I will have a few shares as a one-off at 1-2% owned.
SF @ DET
SF -7.5 @ DET, O/U 48.5
Implied team totals: SF 28, DET 20.5
For more in-depth analysis on this matchup, be sure to read Derek Brown’s game-by-game DFS breakdown.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Trey Sermon and Raheem Mostert will end up in some lineups where I need a value RB. I prefer Mostert.
Brandon Aiyuk is healthy and starting. It is rough now with him, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel all healthy, a rare thing for this 49ers team. This is a brutal mismatch, so I need to get some Jimmy Garoppolo/Kittle/Samuel and Jimmy G/Kittle/Aiyuk stacks, especially in my 150 lineups.
Low-dollar GPP/multi-entry
(In order of personal exposure for entering 150 line-ups)
I am getting exposure to San Francisco, but Detroit is a fade. I will have T.J. Hockenson in my player pool, but it is a brutal matchup as this 49ers scheme is rough against opposing TEs (fewest fantasy points allowed in 2020 by a good margin). The RB situation is also tough to use for DFS purposes. I called a couple of people at the Michigan Highway Patrol, and they too are torn on how this RB snap share will shake out between D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams.
Sunday AM Update
CASH (I am doing the cash game LU this year)
Core (FD): Hurts – CMC – Cook – R. Moore – Devonta Smith – Everett – Kamara – Giants
Core (DK): Hurts – CMC – Cook – R. Moore – E. Moore – Calloway – Kamara
Stack ranks
AZ/TEN (don’t overthink this)
PHI/ATL (see above)
CLE/KC (I have a Mahomes-Kelce-Tyreek-Chubb stack)
Sneaky stacks
LAC/WASH
SF
MIN Passing stack
(3-Max + SE)
Hurts stacks (change it up with your ATL players, mixing in Ridley – Gage – Pitts – Davis
Tenn/AZ game stacks w/ Kyler & Tannehill (I have a TEN stack with a QB/RB combo and another stacked with Julio & AJB)
Fitz + McLaurin/Thomas + Keenan
Other players I will have lots of exposure to;
QB
Lawrence
RB
James Robinson
Damien Harris (On some high $ teams on FD)
Najee – Gibson – Mixon (all these guys are similar in price and projection. They are all fine plays, I am just prioritizing the “Big 3” and punting WR, with the (what I believe is) mispricing of the rookie WRs.
WR
Laviska/Marv/Chark in the stacks – Corey Davis – Adams (Dk mostly) – Tee Higgins
TE
Conklin as a punt, pretty limited TE player pool for me with Kelce – Thomas – Pitts – Everett
D
Jags – Broncos – Giants – Bills – SEA – ATL (DK punt)
Low(er) owned one-offs: SF stack, Russ/DK Metcalf, James White & Chase Edmunds (DK – use to squeeze in expensive stacks), Brandin Cooks, Miles Sanders
UPDATE
Trey Sermon is OUT — Mostert becomes a core play. You can leave your cash game LU as is, or swap one of the “big 3” for Mostert which should get you up to a WR1 like Terry or Keenan, or if your cap allows, Ridley or Adams
Zach Moss is also OUT – Singletary is going into the player pool but won’t crack a main LU
