NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The NFL season is nearly here, with teams finalizing their 53-man rosters and solidifying their depth charts. In this article, we are going to revisit the pre-training camp positional battles for fantasy football, today looking at wide receivers and tight ends.
Wide Receivers
Arizona Cardinals
Winner: Michael Wilson
With Marquise Brown out in the first preseason game, newcomers Michael Wilson and Zach Pascal worked ahead of Rondale Moore in two-receiver sets. Moore primarily operated in the slot, similar to the way he was utilized as a rookie. Brown returned to the lineup the following week, replacing Pascal as the starter. Wilson played the most snaps with the first-team offense, while Moore continued to play as the No. 3 option. All four are likely to be active on gameday, resting in the final preseason game. Brown and Wilson appear to be the starters in two wide formations, with Moore subbing in as the third receiver.
Buffalo Bills
Winner: Deonte Harty
Trent Sherfield started on the outside opposite Gabe Davis in the first preseason game while Stefon Diggs rested. Deonte Harty operated in the slot, playing firmly ahead of Khalil Shakir. With Diggs back in the lineup the following week, Harty held down the slot role, outsnapping Sherfield and Shakir with the starters. Shakir missed the final preseason game with an injury, but Harty continued to work as the clear No. 3, playing 9 of 13 snaps with the first-team offense. Although the Bills will use a lot of 12-personal with Dawson and Dalton Kincaid, Harty looks to be the go-to option in three-receiver sets.
Denver Broncos
Winner: Marvin Mims
The Broncos’ wide receiver room was decimated this past month, losing KJ Hamler to a heart condition, Tim Patrick to a torn ACL and potentially Jerry Jeudy to a moderate hamstring injury. Fortunately, Jeudy avoided the injured reserve list, but will likely miss a few weeks, trending toward doubtful for Week 1. Second-round rookie Marvin Mims appears to be the favorite to join Courtland Sutton as the starter in two wide receiver sets, while Lil’Jordan Humphrey is the likely favorite to replace Jeudy, already familiar with Sean Payton’s system with the Saints. Humphrey is not worth rostering, but Mims could carve out a significant role early in the season. He was the first draft pick in the Payton era, leading Oklahoma in receiving yards in back-to-back seasons. Mims posted career-highs across the board last season, logging 52 receptions, 1,005 receiving yards and six touchdowns.
Houston Texans
Winner: Robert Woods and Noah Brown
Nico Collins and Tank Dell started in the Texans’ first preseason game, while newly acquired veteran wide receivers Robert Woods and Noah Brown were given the night off. John Metchie was the third receiver to see the field, primarily operating in the slot. Woods and Brown were active the following week, but Dell was ruled out pregame due to muscle tightness. Woods joined Collins in the starting lineup, with Brown playing as the clear No. 3. Metchie didn’t play a single snap with the starters, subbing in for Brown on the third drive. The pecking order stayed the same in the final preseason game, with Woods and Collins as the top two options followed by Brown. Both Dell and Metchie are unlikely to see meaningful playing time early on but could carve out a larger down the stretch.
Kansas City Chiefs
Winner: Skyy Moore
Kadarius Toney was held out of the preseason after suffering a torn meniscus on the first day of training camp. Marquez Valdes-Scantling played the most snaps with the starters in the first two games, followed by Skyy Moore. Justin Watson operated as the clear No. 3 during that stretch, tying Richie James for the second most snaps with starters while Valdes-Scantling rested in the final preseason game. Rashee Rice and Justyn Ross saw minimal usage with the first-team offense, likely sixth and seventh on the depth chart once Toney returns. If Toney is out, Valdes-Scantling and Moore appear to be the top two options, followed by Watson who will likely rotate with James, Rice and Ross, depending on who is active. Coming off a disappointing rookie season, Moore should be the first player drafted at the position, in line for a year two breakout.
Tennessee Titans
Winner: DeAndre Hopkins
The Titans struggled without a true No. 1 option last season, with no player logging more than 530 receiving yards. They turned to free agency in search of an alpha, signing DeAndre Hopkins to a two-year, $26 million deal. The timing was perfect with Treylon Burks suffering an LCL injury shortly after, missing all of the preseason. At 31 years old, and entering his season 11th season in the NFL, Hopkins has shown no signs of slowing down, averaging seven grabs for 77 yards in 2022. Extrapolated over a 17-game season, Hopkins was on pace for 119 receptions and 1,309 receiving yards. Fortunately, Burks has returned to practice and will likely play second fiddle to Hopkins during the season. Kyle Philips has also been dealing with an injury but is the favorite to play the slot.
Tight Ends
Arizona Cardinals
Winner: Trey McBride?
Recovering from a torn ACL and MCL suffered in Week 10 last season, Zach Ertz managed to avoid the PUP list, receiving full clearance for full football activity. However, he is listed as questionable for Week 1, likely to play behind Trey McBride to open the season. McBride surpassed a 45% snap share just once in his first nine games with Ertz. He took over as the starting end once Ertz went down, playing 75%-plus of the team’s offensive snap in each of the last eight games. Without Ertz in the lineup, McBride averaged five targets per game but less than 35 receiving yards (33.43). The rotation between the two is to be determined with a new coaching staff.
Buffalo Bills
Winner: Dawson Knox
Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid both started in the first preseason game, with the Bills opening in 12 personnel in their first drive. Kincaid played ahead of Knox in three-receiver sets, operating as the primary tight end. Knox missed the following week due to a finger injury but worked firmly ahead of Kincaid when he returned in the final game. Knox took eight snaps out of 11 personnel compared to just six for Kincaid. The two will likely share the field a lot during the season, but Knox appears to have the lead as the team’s starter. Even as a part-time player, Kincaid still has the most upside, as the primary pass catcher. In 2022, Kincaid posted a 21.7% target share, leading Utah in all receiving categories including targets (96), receptions (70), receiving yards (890) and receiving touchdowns (8).
Dallas Cowboys
Winner: Jake Ferguson
Jake Ferguson solidified himself as the starting tight end, beating out Peyton Hendershot and Luke Schoonmaker, who spent most of the training camp on the NFI list dealing with a foot injury. Ferguson dominated snaps with the starters in the first preseason game and rested in the final two. He’ll take over the Dalton Schultz role in the Cowboys offense who finished second on the team in targets and receptions over the last two seasons, trailing only CeeDee Lamb in receiving yards in 2022 (577). Schoonmaker could carve out a role once he gets healthy, coming off a career year last season.
Miami Dolphins
Winner: Durham Smythe
Durham Smythe is in line to start Week 1, dominating snaps with the first team this preseason and resting with the starters. Smythe played behind Mike Gesicki last season who finished third on the team in targets (52), receptions (32), and receiving touchdowns (5). Smythe is not the same caliber receiver as Gesicki, never logging more than 34 receptions in a season. Although he should see meaningful playing time, there isn’t much upside for Miami pass catchers outside of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
New England Patriots
Winner: Hunter Henry
Hunter Henry had already been working ahead of Mike Gesicki with the first-team offense, widening the gap once Gesicki went down with a dislocated shoulder. Henry was a late-round gem two seasons ago, drafted as the second tight end on his team and finishing as the TE9 overall. In his first season in New England, Henry led the team in receiving touchdowns (9), finishing second in receptions (50) and third in receiving yards (603). He took a significant step back last season, finding the end zone just twice, but still finished top-three on the team in targets (59), receptions (41) and receiving yards (509). Henry is worth a late-round flyer in deeper leagues and best ball.
New Orleans Saints
Winner: Juwan Johnson
The Saints opted to keep four tight ends on the roster, including Taysom Hill, but there is no denying Juwan Johnson’s role as the Week 1 starter. Johnson played the most snaps with the first-team offense in the first preseason and rested with starters in the final two. In 2022, Johnson led NOLA in receiving touchdowns (7) with the second-most receiving yards on the team (655), trailing only Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara in targets (65) and receptions (42). It’s also worth noting that Derek Carr reportedly told his brother to draft Johnson in fantasy.
