NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
It’s time of the Week 7 fantasy football start/sit column, where we run through the players you should start or sit this week (and, of course, we use data to support the reasoning). Let’s dive into this week’s start ‘em and sit ’em!
The Week 7 byes subtract three of the best teams in football by at least their records and offer me a reprieve from deciding whether Gabe Davis can simply score a touchdown or two on fewer than five targets every week. And while that talent loss can create some roster crunch, it also affords opportunities to find advantages based on matchup considerations. I’ll hit on my favorite and least favorite of those in week’s start and sit column.
- Players are labeled as starts if I rank them better than the consensus and sits if I rank them worse than the consensus, but consider your specific league contexts to make your start and sit decisions.
- The positional rankings and fantasy point totals rely on half PPR scoring.
- The consensus rankings refer to the FantasyPros expert consensus.
- You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.
Week 7 Start/Sit: Quarterbacks
Start Dak Prescott, Cowboys vs. Lions (Dome)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 6th, +1 vs. consensus (7th)
+ Venue: Dak Prescott has averaged 4.3 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
Start Derek Carr, Raiders vs. Texans (Dome)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 8th, +1 vs. consensus (9th)
+ Efficiency: Derek Carr has thrown just 8 touchdowns but has 11.73 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth-highest 3.73-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: Carr has faced the second-easiest schedule of pass defenses that on average have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.21 per game and should have a harder schedule starting this week.
Start Russell Wilson, Broncos vs. Jets (62 degrees and cloudy)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 14th, +1 vs. consensus (15th)
+ Efficiency: Russell Wilson has thrown just 5 touchdowns but has 10.71 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 5.71-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Start Matt Ryan, Colts at Titans (71 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 16th, +1 vs. consensus (17th)
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.76 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Start Ryan Tannehill, Titans vs. Colts (71 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 18th, +3 vs. consensus (21st)
+ Venue: Ryan Tannehill has averaged 2.8 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.23 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Sit Marcus Mariota, Falcons at Bengals (71 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 17th, -1 vs. consensus (16th)
– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.39 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Sit Jared Goff, Lions at Cowboys (Dome)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 19th, -1 vs. consensus (18th)
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.44 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Week 7 Start/Sit: Running Backs
Start Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys vs. Lions (Dome)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 16th, +1 vs. consensus (17th)
+ Efficiency: Ezekiel Elliott ranks 12th from last at his position with -0.62 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate rise the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
+ Opponent: Elliott has faced the hardest schedule of run defenses that on average have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.20 per game and should have an easier schedule starting this week.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.92 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Start Najee Harris, Steelers at Dolphins (78 degrees and clear)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 19th, +1 vs. consensus (20th)
+ Efficiency: Najee Harris has scored just 2 touchdowns but has 3.16 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.83-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Efficiency: Harris ranks fifth from last at his position with -1.04 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate rise the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
+ Opponent: Harris has faced the third-hardest schedule of run defenses that on average have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.17 per game and should have an easier schedule starting this week.
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.44 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Start Travis Etienne, Jaguars vs. Giants (74 degrees and sunny)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 22nd, +1 vs. consensus (23rd)
+ Efficiency: Travis Etienne has not scored a touchdown but has 2.03 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.03-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Start Eno Benjamin, Cardinals vs. Saints (Dome)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 23rd, +1 vs. consensus (24th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Eno Benjamin for 19.2 carries + targets this week — assuming James Conner is out — 15th at his position (he had 18 carries + targets in Week 6 with Conner and Darrel Williams out and played 87% of snaps).
– Opponent: The Saints have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Start AJ Dillon, Packers at Commanders (59 degrees and cloudy)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 25th, +3 vs. consensus (28th)
+ Volume: I am projecting AJ Dillon for 14.6 carries + targets this week, 24th at his position (he has averaged 15.5 carries + targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Dillon has scored just 1 touchdown but has 2.21 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.21-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Start Sony Michel, Chargers vs. Seahawks (Dome)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 41st, +4 vs. consensus (45th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Sony Michel for 8.5 carries + targets this week, 38th at his position (he had 11 carries + targets last week after Joshua Kelley sprained his MCL).
+ Efficiency: Michel has not scored a touchdown but has 1.26 expected rushing touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.26-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Efficiency: Michel ranks 14th from last at his position with -0.59 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate rise the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.56 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Sit Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs at 49ers (68 degrees and sunny)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 24th, -2 vs. consensus (22nd)
– Volume: I am projecting Clyde Edwards-Helaire for 14.0 carries + targets this week, 26th at his position (he has averaged 12.8 carries + targets in 2022).
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.32 per game in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
Sit Michael Carter, Jets at Broncos (62 degrees and cloudy)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 35th, -3 vs. consensus (32nd)
– Volume: I am projecting Michael Carter for 8.1 carries + targets this week, 39th at his position (he has averaged 10.3 carries + targets vs. 21.7 for Breece Hall the last three weeks).
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.41 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Sit Khalil Herbert, Bears at Patriots (57 degrees and cloudy)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 39th, -2 vs. consensus (37th)
– Volume: I am projecting Khalil Herbert for 8.0 carries + targets this week, 40th at his position (he has averaged 6.5 carries + targets vs. 17.5 for David Montgomery in their four healthy games together).
– Efficiency: Herbert ranks eighth at his position with 0.94 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate fall the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
– Opponent: The Patriots have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Week 7 Start/Sit: Wide Receivers
Start DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals vs. Saints (Dome)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 11th, +9 vs. consensus (20th – I suspect this reflects that some rankers have yet to add Hopkins back after he served his six-game suspension)
+ Volume: I am projecting DeAndre Hopkins for 9.9 targets this week, tied for fifth at his position (he has averaged 6.6 targets in his last six games).
Start Diontae Johnson, Steelers at Dolphins (78 degrees and clear)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 18th, +1 vs. consensus (19th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Diontae Johnson for 9.3 targets this week, ninth at his position (he has averaged 9.5 targets in 2022).
– Efficiency: Peoples-Jones has not caught a touchdown but has 1.79 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth biggest 1.79-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Start Chris Olave, Saints at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 20th, +1 vs. consensus (21st)
+ Volume: I am projecting Chris Olave for 8.9 targets this week, 11th at his position (he has averaged 8.4 targets in 2022 and will not have Michael Thomas or Jarvis Landry to compete with for targets this week).
Start Brandin Cooks, Texans at Raiders (Dome)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 23rd, +1 vs. consensus (24th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Brandin Cooks for 8.2 targets this week, tied for 15th at his position (he has averaged 8.4 targets in 2022).
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.44 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Start Michael Gallup, Cowboys vs. Lions (Dome)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 31st, +3 vs. consensus (34th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Michael Gallup for 7.3 targets this week, tied for 25th at his position (he has averaged 5.0 targets in 2022 with Cooper Rush but has averaged 6.7 targets in his last six games with Dak Prescott).
+ Venue: Dak Prescott has averaged 4.3 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
Start Alec Pierce, Colts at Titans (71 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 34th, +1 vs. consensus (35th)
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.76 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Start Robert Woods, Titans vs. Colts (71 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 37th, +2 vs. consensus (39th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Robert Woods for 7.9 targets this week, tied for 19th at his position (he had 8 targets in Week 5 with Treylon Burks out with turf toe).
+ Venue: Ryan Tannehill has averaged 2.8 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.23 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Start George Pickens, Steelers at Dolphins (78 degrees and clear)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 38th, +1 vs. consensus (39th)
– Efficiency: Pickens has not caught a touchdown but has 0.97 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.97-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Start Zay Jones, Jaguars vs. Giants (74 degrees and sunny)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 42nd, +1 vs. consensus (43rd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Zay Jones for 6.6 targets this week, tied for 35th at his position (he has averaged 7.4 targets in 2022).
– Efficiency: Jones has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.02 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.02-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Start Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chiefs at 49ers (68 degrees and sunny)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 43rd, +1 vs. consensus (44th)
– Efficiency: Valdes-Scantling has not caught a touchdown but has 1.37 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that eighth biggest 1.37-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.51 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Start Hunter Renfrow, Raiders vs. Texans (Dome)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 44th, +1 vs. consensus (45th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Hunter Renfrow for 7.3 targets this week, tied for 25th at his position (he has averaged 6.7 targets in 2022).
Start Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns at Ravens (58 degrees and cloudy)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 47th, +2 vs. consensus (49th)
– Efficiency: Peoples-Jones has not caught a touchdown but has 1.84 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that third biggest 1.84-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Ravens have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.47 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Start Nico Collins, Texans at Raiders (Dome)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 52nd, +2 vs. consensus (54th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Nico Collins for 5.6 targets this week, 46th at his position (he has averaged 5.4 targets in 2022).
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.44 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Sit Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers vs. Chiefs (68 degrees and sunny)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 28th, -5 vs. consensus (23rd)
– Volume: I am projecting Brandon Aiyuk for 6.4 targets this week, 39th at his position (he has averaged 7.0 targets since Week 2 with mostly Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback).
– Volume: Aiyuk has seen just seven deep targets of more than 20 air yards since the start of 2021 with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, and only four of those have been catchable.
– Efficiency: Davis has caught 3 touchdowns but has just 0.93 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that third biggest 2.07-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.65 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Sit JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chiefs at 49ers (68 degrees and sunny)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 29th, -2 vs. consensus (27th)
– Volume: I am projecting JuJu Smith-Schuster for 6.9 targets this week, 34th at his position (he has averaged 6.7 targets in 2022).
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.51 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Sit Garrett Wilson, Jets at Broncos (62 degrees and cloudy)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 45th, -4 vs. consensus (41st)
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.57 per game in 2022, the most in football.
– Opponent: Pat Surtain has allowed just a 56% catch rate on his targets this season, 10th-lowest among cornerbacks with 200 or more routes in coverage.
Sit Russell Gage, Bucs at Panthers (69 degrees and sunny)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 53rd, -2 vs. consensus (51st)
– Volume: I am projecting Russell Gage for 5.0 targets this week, 52nd at his position (he has averaged 4.7 targets since Week 4 when Chris Godwin returned).
– Opponent: The Panthers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.16 per game in 2022, 10th most in football.
Week 7 Start/Sit: Tight Ends
Start Pat Freiermuth, Steelers at Dolphins (78 degrees and clear)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 10th, +3 vs. consensus (13th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Pat Freiermuth for 6.4 targets this week, fourth at his position (he has averaged 7.5 targets his four healthy games in 2022).
Start Noah Fant, Seahawks at Chargers (Dome)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 16th, +1 vs. consensus (17th)
+ Opponent: The Chargers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.25 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Start Juwan Johnson, Saints at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 17th, +3 vs. consensus (20th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Juwan Johnson for 5.2 targets this week, tied for 11th at his position (he had 6 targets in Week 6 and played a season-high 78% of snaps after Adam Trautman injured his ankle).
+ Efficiency: Johnson has not caught a touchdown but has 0.98 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that seventh highest 0.98-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have allowed 15.2 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, second most in football.
Sit Robert Tonyan, Packers at Commanders (59 degrees and cloudy)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 11th, -2 vs. consensus (9th)
– Opponent: The Commanders have allowed 5.5 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, tied for third lowest in football.
Sit Hayden Hurst, Bengals vs. Falcons (71 degrees and cloudy)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 12th, -1 vs. consensus (11th)
– Volume: I am projecting Hayden Hurst for 4.5 targets this week, 17th at his position (he has averaged 5.2 targets in 2022).
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.25 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
+ Opponent: The Falcons have allowed 13.7 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, fourth most in football.
Sit Taysom Hill, Saints at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 15th, -5 vs. consensus (10th)
– Efficiency: Taysom Hill has run in 5 touchdowns but has just 0.98 expected rushing touchdowns in 2022, and that league-leading 4.02-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Efficiency: Hill ranks second with 1.45 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate fall the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.43 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Sit Daniel Bellinger, Giants at Jaguars (74 degrees and sunny)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 18th, -3 vs. consensus (15th)
– Efficiency: Daniel Bellinger has caught 2 touchdowns but has just 0.74 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that seventh highest 1.26-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Sit Mike Gesicki, Dolphins vs. Steelers (78 degrees and clear)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 20th, -4 vs. consensus (16th)
– Volume: I am projecting Mike Gesicki for 2.8 targets this week, tied for 31st at his position (he has averaged 2.0 targets in three games with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa and 4.3 targets in three games without a healthy Tagovailoa in 2022).
– Efficiency: Gesicki has caught 3 touchdowns but has just 1.48 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fifth highest 1.52-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Steelers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.40 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Sit Tyler Conklin, Jets at Broncos (62 degrees and cloudy)
Week 7 Positional Ranking: 21st, -2 vs. consensus (19th)
– Volume: I am projecting Tyler Conklin for 3.3 targets this week, 23rd at his position (he has averaged 1.5 targets and played 77 snaps vs. 2.0 and 84 for C.J. Uzomah the last two weeks).
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.57 per game in 2022, the most in football.
