First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
It warmed my heart to see the great people at Underdog Fantasy drop their 2025 pre-draft best ball contests on Conference Championship Sunday. The first best ball contest of 2025 went live Sunday afternoon.
The Big Board contest is live, with a total prize pot of $2 million, including $250,000 to first place. There are also four other live contests with a variety of entry fees with The Little Board ($3 entry), The Bigger Board ($100), The Biggest Board ($250) and The War Room ($25) all dropping in the past two days. There are incredible values at every position, and now is the time to take advantage.
Please be sure to check out Sam Choudhury’s 2025 Guide to Best Ball. Having already drafted five Big Board teams, here are my initial thoughts for the first week of best ball season.
Underdog Big Board Best Ball Breakdown
Robust Running Back Is Back
Best ball drafts are very reactionary to the prior season, and the trio of Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs have led to running backs flying off the road early in Round 1. In all five of my drafts, Bijan Robinson, Barkley and Jahmyr Gibbs have all been drafted in the top half of Round 1. Most teams are not drafting consecutive running backs, but there have been an average of 12.4 running backs drafted in the first two rounds of my drafts. There are 10 running backs listed in the Underdog Big Board ADP, meaning drafters are not afraid to secure their fantasy backfield at the risk of “reaching” past other higher-ranked players. The top 10 running backs per Big Board ADP are:
- Saquon Barkley (PHI) ADP 2.0
- Bijan Robinson (ATL) ADP 3.5
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) ADP 4.5
- De’Von Achane (MIA) ADP 11.3
- Christian McCaffrey (SF) ADP 12.7
- Derrick Henry (BAL) ADP 13.7
- Ashton Jeanty (Rookie) ADP 19.1
- Jonathan Taylor (IND) ADP 19.9
- Josh Jacobs (GB) ADP 23.3
- Chase Brown (CIN) ADP 24.8
The most important question at the running back position? What team will draft Boise State rookie Ashton Jeanty?
Wide Receiver Uncertainty
For the first time in several years, there is skepticism about the Best Ball wide receiver position. After Ja’Marr Chase, drafters need to embrace uncertainty. Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson could be dealing with essentially a rookie quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, Puka Nacua’s quarterback (Matthew Stafford) turns 37 years old in two weeks, Dallas’ duo of CeeDee Lamb and quarterback Dak Prescott are returning from injuries, while Brian Thomas Jr. (Jacksonville) and Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown will have new offensive coordinators.
Last year’s early-round wide receivers were littered with disappointments, led by Tyreek Hill (ADP WR1, finished WR33), Garrett Wilson (ADP WR7, finished WR23) and Marvin Harrison Jr. (ADP WR9, finished WR42). Since each team starts three wide receivers, finding an early-round pass-catcher who actually meets or exceeds ADP provides critical leverage on the field.
There are also incredible values for those Best Ball drafters willing to ignore injury concerns. Baltimore’s Zay Flowers is currently the WR22 and Kansas City’s Rashee Rice is the WR26, both available in Round 5 or later. Assuming a full return to health, both players have high-end WR2/low-end WR1 seasons squarely in their range of outcomes.
Wait on Quarterback … Then Wait Longer
There is always quarterback value late in best ball drafts, again illustrated by the 2024 season. Drafters that chose to wait on the signal-caller position, were rewarded with opportunities to draft players such as Baker Mayfield (ADP QB21, finished QB5), Bo Nix (ADP QB23, finished QB10) or even Russell Wilson (ADP QB26, finished QB12 in FPPG).
Recency bias has again infiltrated quarterback ADP, with C.J. Stroud (QB16), Dak Prescott (QB20) and Matthew Stafford (QB26) all capable of low-end QB1 seasons. Despite Nix’s superb rookie campaign, there is also a lack of support for young quarterbacks such as Michael Penix Jr. (QB23) or the unknown J.J. McCarthy (QB28). It is hard to justify taking a quarterback early, with upside talents such as Caleb Williams (QB14) and Drake Maye (QB15) still available in the double-digit rounds.
Where To Try Best Ball?
Underdog Fantasy is one of many different platforms that offers best ball contests, which also includes DraftKings, Drafters, FFPC and BestBall10, among others. The rules, structures, scoring and prize pools vary from site to site, so it’s important to be familiar with the tournament before you enter. As a reminder, new users at Underdog Fantasy can receive a deposit match up to $250 on their first deposit by using the promo code “FTN” upon signup.
