Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Who are the most underrated fantasy football players for 2023? Each year, we run through each NFL team’s most overrated and underrated players from a fantasy football perspective — and it’s time to release the 2023 edition.
You’re going to see some big names on these lists — potentially even first-rounders on the “overrated” list — and that’s because we’re in the business of naming players that are actually highly relevant for fantasy.
Without further ado, here is every team’s most underrated fantasy player this year.
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen, QB
I consider Josh Allen the best pick of Round 3 and the best value on the Bills overall. He has finished as the QB1, QB1 and QB2 over the last three years. And now he’s being drafted as the QB3! Allen had 7% more Expected Fantasy Points than any other QB last year.
Miami Dolphins: Raheem Mostert, RB
While Raheem Mostert and the Dolphins RBs aren’t done dodging free agent/trade bullets yet (Jonathan Taylor, Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt are still lurking), it is late August and Mostert is still at the top of the depth chart. This will be a backfield-by-committee with Mostert, flashy rookie De’Von Achane, and veteran Jeff Wilson, but Mostert’s ADP of RB47 is nearly 30 picks later than Achane’s — and Mostert is the starter.
New England Patriots: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
Not only will the Patriots offense be better this year (they actually have an offensive coordinator), but JuJu Smith-Schuster is an upgrade rather than a one-for-one replacement of Jakobi Meyers. Meyers was the PPR WR28 last year (WR29 the year before). So why are we drafting Smith-Schuster as the WR53?
New York Jets: Breece Hall, RB
Fun fact: Breece Hall was one of the 50 most valuable players in all of fantasy football last year despite playing only seven games. The arrival of Dalvin Cook signals that the Jets don’t want to rev up Hall’s engine immediately from Week 1 — not that they don’t want to feature him at all. Cook is a late-career RB. Hall is a bloomer. Buy the dip on his ADP post-Cook.
Denver Broncos: Courtland Sutton, WR
Last year, we were drafting Courtland Sutton as the WR16 — well ahead of Jerry Jeudy. It made no sense, and Sutton was overrated as a result. After 2022’s disastrous performance, the roles are now reversed. Jeudy is going in the WR25 range (which makes sense), but Sutton is all the way down at WR45, which makes no sense at all.
If you believe Russell Wilson is 100% cooked, then fine, this cost makes sense. But Sutton should be much closer to Jeudy in ADP than he is.
Kansas City Chiefs: Jerick McKinnon, RB
Shout out to FTN’s Scott Spratt for calling Jerick McKinnon as a value as soon as the 2023 offseason began. The Chiefs made no changes to their RB room, locking McKinnon into his valuable roll as a trusted third-down and red-zone receiver. Over the second half of last season (Weeks 9-17), only five running backs scored more fantasy points than McKinnon:
- Austin Ekeler (193.0)
- Josh Jacobs (182.5)
- Christian McCaffrey (173.0)
- James Conner (151.9)
- Derrick Henry (149.5)
- Jerick McKinnon (147.2)
Las Vegas Raiders: Josh Jacobs, RB
Josh Jacobs is a risk-reward play. Remember last year, after he played substantial snaps in the Hall of Fame game, when fantasy players moved him down draft boards? And then he ended up being one of the best picks of 2022?
I don’t want to make the same mistake twice. There is zero competition for touches in this offense for Jacobs. He’s already expected to be back before Week 1. Jacobs has virtually no leverage regarding a holdout threat.
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert, QB
Justin Herbert was fourth among all QBs in expected fantasy points last year but ninth in actual fantasy points. He scored 110 fewer points than expected. For such a talented QB (who got injured early last year), regression to the mean feels like a lock. And considering the team just spent a first-round pick on a new WR weapon (Quentin Johnston), Herbert is clearly underrated for the upside he brings.
Baltimore Ravens: Odell Beckham, WR
Uncertainty around the WR pecking order in Baltimore has led all three wideouts (Odell Beckham, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman) to go outside the top 40 WRs. I actually think this makes all of them underrated, so give me Beckham for this list as he’s the last of the trio to come off draft boards.
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Mixon, RB
Joe Mixon’s solid 2022 campaign is not entirely the result of his 56-point outburst in the middle of the year. The truth of the matter is that he was due for a course correction, as up until that game, he was dead last among all RBs in fantasy points over (in his case, under) expectation.
It was abnormal that he regressed to the mean in the span of one game, but it wasn’t a shock to see it happen. We should see more regular pop-off games from Mixon in 2023 (though not as extreme, of course).
Cleveland Browns: David Njoku, TE
David Njoku cashed in as a top-12 TE last year with Deshaun Watson only playing half the year as a rusty QB. His current ADP is aligned with his 2022 value despite the improved offensive situation.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Jaylen Warren, RB
There are increasing odds that Pittsburgh ends up as a split backfield between Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris in 2023:
Devin Houston Texans: Devin Singletary, RB
Devin Singletary is not a bad RB. In fact, he finished last year with a better rushing DVOA than Dameon Pierce. Looking ahead to 2023, he’s projected to have a better rushing DVOA than Pierce once again.
Yes, Singletary is Pierce’s backup. No, Singletary won’t hold a clipboard all season.
Indianapolis Colts: Alec Pierce, WR
Alec Pierce worked his way up to a nearly full-time role over the second half of his rookie season. It didn’t amount to much in the stat sheets, but with Parris Campbell no longer in Indy, the No. 2 role is now clearly Pierce’s to lose. A true deep threat, Pierce is going to make plenty of splash plays in 2023.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Zay Jones, WR
Zay Jones is on the field in two WR sets, as the Jaguars appear intent on keeping Christian Kirk primarily in the slot. Jones is going to be on the field all the time this season. If you like the Jaguars offense (everyone does), you have to like Jones by default. He was one of the 10 most explosive fantasy WRs last season.
Tennessee Titans: Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE
Chigoziem Okonkwo just straight up looks like a WR:
He also led all TEs in yards per route run last season, a metric that has been solely dominated by Rob Gronkowski and George Kittle for the last decade, and he ran a route on six of Tennessee’s seven pass attempts in their Week 2 game.
Dallas Cowboys: Tony Pollard, RB
Here’s what I wrote about Pollard in the Best Picks By Round piece: Tony Pollard “was the 20th most valuable player in all of fantasy football last year and he’s being picked right around No. 20 this year.” Except this year, there’s no Ezekiel Elliott to steal 10-plus touchdowns.
New York Giants: Isaiah Hodgins, WR
Isaiah Hodgins finished last year on an extremely high note. He was the WR13 in Weeks 13-17 in PPR leagues. This year, he’s being drafted as the WR74. That’s below where he finished last season (WR73) despite the fact the Giants WR room looks largely the same outside of deep threat Jalin Hyatt.
Philadelphia Eagles: Kenneth Gainwell, RB
According to the ADP Exploration Tool, Kenneth Gainwell is flying up draft boards. That’s because the Eagles have been treating him like their No. 1 running back. No matter what happens in Philly, we know it’s going to be a crowded RB room. But there’s going to be more space for Gainwell in that room than we initially expected. There’s still time to buy.
Washington Commanders: Sam Howell, QB
Sam Howell has looked incredible in the preseason, and he can run, and he’s incredibly cheap. His Konami Code potential could break leagues this year if he sticks around as Washington’s starter.
Arizona Cardinals: Marquise Brown, WR
My favorite Marquise Brown stat of the offseason:
In Weeks 1-6 last year, Brown was an elite fantasy wideout. Here were the PPR standings through 1.5 months of football:
- Cooper Kupp — 150.8
- Stefon Diggs — 150.6
- Tyreek Hill — 133.9
- Justin Jefferson — 133.9
- Ja’Marr Chase — 110.7
- Marquise Brown — 109.5
- Jaylen Waddle — 103.0
- Davante Adams — 102.4
- A.J. Brown — 95.3
- Deebo Samuel — 93.1
Los Angeles Rams: Cooper Kupp, WR
If it weren’t for his recent string of injuries, Cooper Kupp would the 1.01 again in 2023. He was the fantasy MVP in 2021 and was the MVP again in 2022 prior to his injury.
San Francisco 49ers: Brandon Aiyuk, WR
Is this the year Brandon Aiyuk really establishes himself as San Francisco’s WR1? His stats have steadily improved through three years in the league, and he topped 1,000 receiving yards and eight TDs last year. Aiyuk was fine both with and without Purdy last year (his stats were identical, per the FTN splits tool). So the QB confusion in San Francisco shouldn’t be a factor here.
Seattle Seahawks: Tyler Lockett, WR
Another year, another opportunity to say Tyler Lockett is underrated. He’s even more underrated now that rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba required late-August surgery and will miss time (and potentially the start of the season). Lockett has finished as a top-16 fantasy WR in five straight years, His ADP this season? WR32.
Chicago Bears: Justin Fields, QB
Justin Fields is going 1.5-2 rounds later than his fantasy peers at the QB position. It’s as simple as that.
Detroit Lions: Jared Goff, QB
Jared Goff is the QB I have drafted the most on Underdog Fantasy. He was a top-10 fantasy QB last season but is being drafted as the QB17 in 2023, for some reason. We love his offense — Jahmyr Gibbs! Amon-Ra St. Brown! Sam LaPorta! — but not Goff? I’m not sure I understand why. But I do understand that he’s an elite value.
Green Bay Packers: Jayden Reed, WR
The second-round pick may have a sizable workload as a rookie behind Christian Watson. Jayden Reed has looked good so far in the preseason and is completely free to draft in most 16-round draft formats.
Minnesota Vikings: Jordan Addison, WR
He’s being drafted as the WR37 and fills in as a direct replacement for Adam Thielen in Minnesota’s offense. No WR ran more routes than Thielen last season — in the entire league! Jordan Addison is a strong bet to beat his ADP given his expected role in Minnesota’s offense.
Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts, TE
Jeff Ratcliffe named Kyle Pitts one of his 15 players to target at ADP this year, noting that you’re getting Pitts three full rounds cheaper than his 2022 cost. Pitts oozes with breakout potential and upside. He played only 10 games last year but still finished fourth in air yards at the position.
Carolina Panthers: DJ Chark, WR
DJ Chark’s strong sophomore season with the Jaguars (73-1m008-8) from 2019 feels like a lifetime ago, but he’s still only 26 and you can make the case he’s the best WR in Carolina in 2023 (aging vet Adam Thielen and rookie Jonathan Mingo are his top challengers). Chark ran a route on all eight of Bryce Young’s dropbacks in Carolina’s most recent preseason game.
New Orleans Saints: Alvin Kamara, RB
Alvin Kamara’s three-game suspension won’t be the easiest pill to swallow at the start of the season, but you’re getting a high-end fantasy RB2 for the cost of an RB3 because of it. Even in a down year last season, Kamara still finished as the overall RB16 in PPR leagues. And he was the RB14 in Fantasy Wins Added. The upgrade at QB should also help Kamara get back on the track as a receiver.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Rachaad White, RB
Rachaad White secured 50 receptions as a rookie last year — and that was with Leonard Fournette still in town. He’s being treated like a three-down workhorse by the Tampa coaching staff, so this is one of those cases where perhaps we should just listen to what all the signs are telling us: White is going to be a fantasy value in 2023.
