Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
One of the best-kept secrets in fantasy football drafts is that you can use site ADP to your advantage on your commissioner platform. Invariably, those who do not prepare in your leagues will lean heavily on the site ADP to make their selections. If you know where the value gaps lie in that site’s ADP, you can take advantage of the market and dominate your drafts.
You can and should use this approach on ever commissioner platform. It may seem like a small edge but take any advantage you can get on your opponents in fantasy football drafts. To show you an example, here are some of the best players to target at current ADP on Sleeper.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
ADP 3.09 (WR15)
He isn’t quite as undervalued as he was in 2022 drafts, but the No. 1 receiver on a team that had the seventh-most receptions in the league last season screams value in this range of drafts. DK Metcalf is coming off a career-best 90 receptions. While his yards per catch declined, he still offers massive big-play upside and should continue to see ample work in the red zone.
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
ADP 4.05 (RB17)
This one might be reflective of the market simply not catching up with the latest news, but we can still exploit it for as long as it lasts. Joe Mixon’s future with the Bengals seemed to hand in the balance for much of the offseason, but that’s in the rearview mirror after he agreed to a pay cut earlier this month. Mixon is now locked in as the feature back in one of the league’s most explosive offenses with minimal coemption for touches with only rookie Chase Brown and lightly used veteran Trayveon Williams behind him.
Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns
ADP 4.08 (WR19)
Like the swallows of Capistrano, it’s an annual event for Amari Cooper to be undervalued in fantasy football drafts. Despite spending three-quarters of the season with Jacoby Brissett last year, he still managed 1,160 yards and a career-best nine touchdowns on his way to a 10th-place fantasy finish among wideouts. This year, he’s in a much better situation with Deshaun Watson under center and remains cemented in as the top receiving option.
DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
ADP 5.04 (WR22)
Carolina trotted out a bunch of slappies at quarterback last season, but DJ Moore made the proverbial shine during the fantasy football playoffs. During those three weeks, only five fantasy wideouts produced more fantasy points. Of course, it wasn’t a smooth ride during the season, but he’s now in a much more intriguing situation as the No. 1 receiver for ascending signal caller Justin Fields.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
ADP 5.11 (TE5)
Yes, half of those who clicked on this link will have immediately closed their browser tab at the mere mention of Kyle Pitts, but those fantasy managers are the reason why Pitts is now a value. Last season was a rough one for Pitts, but context matters. Marcus Mariota simply wasn’t able to get him the football, and he ended the year with a torn MCL. Things are looking up for Pitts with Desmond Ridder under center. However, the bigger factor is you’re getting him nearly three rounds later than where you had to draft him in 2022.
James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals
ADP 6.05 (RB25)
Sure, the outlook isn’t pretty for the Cardinals this season, but James Conner still figures to be very busy regardless of gamescript. Last year, he assumed true three-down duties for the team and averaged a healthy 17.6 touches per game. Given how thin Arizona is at running back, we can expect a similar workload this season. Of course, he won’t produce high-end efficiency, but Conner’s volume will help him outplay this ADP.
Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts
ADP 6.06 (WR27)
He only scored four touchdowns last season, but Michael Pittman also ranked eighth among wide receivers with 99 catches. And he did so in spite of having extremely lackluster quarterback play. While quarterback remains a question mark with no one really knowing what Anthony Richardson is going to be in his rookie season, Pittman is locked in as the top receiver and offers a healthy discount in drafts.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
ADP 7.01 (RB27)
He’s almost certainly going to be suspended to start the season, so Alvin Kamara’s ADP is subject to change depending on the length of the suspension. However, there’s speculation that his ban will be in the range of 2-4 games. Sure, he isn’t quite the player he was earlier in his career, but Kamara would still be the lead back in an improved offense. Getting that caliber of player in the middle rounds is a good value provided his suspension isn’t more than four games.
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
ADP 7.04 (RB29)
Like Joe Mixon, the market does seem to have caught up with the latest news on Javonte Williams. The Broncos back managed to avoid the active/PUP list and is practicing in camp. Denver plans to take things slow with Williams, but he’s now on track to be on the field in Week 1. He will be sharing the stage with Samaje Perine, but he still figures to be on the right side of that timeshare.
Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
ADP 7.05 (WR33)
After scoring 20 touchdowns over his first three seasons, Diontae Johnson had zero last season. Fantasy drafters often place way too much weight into touchdown production from the previous season. But the fact of the matter is that touchdowns are often subject to the widest swings year over year. Just look at Miles Sanders from 2021 to 2022. And just like Sanders last season, Johnson is a great value this year.
Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
ADP 8.12 (WR42)
The rookie will start the season out as the Chargers’ third receiver, so he isn’t a pick that will pay dividends in September. However, Quentin Johnston’s size and dynamic ability after the catch make him an appealing high ceiling stash. That’s especially true because Keenan Allen and Mike Williams haven’t been the picture of health during the course of their careers.
Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks
ADP 9.08 (RB37)
Kenneth Walker is in the driver’s seat in the Seattle backfield, but the team wouldn’t have used a second-round selection on Zach Charbonnet if they didn’t have plans to use him. Charbonnet’s plus ability in the passing game gives him flex appeal. He’s also just one Walker injury away from a significant role.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
ADP 10.02 (WR47)
Like most of the Broncos, Courtland Sutton’s value is depressed after Denver’s forgettable 2022 campaign. However, he was Russell Wilson’s favorite red zone target with a hefty 13 end zone targets. He only converted two of them for scores, but those are extremely valuable looks. If we see a rebound season from Wilson, Sutton will almost certainly outplay this ADP.
Skyy Moore, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
ADP 12.08 (WR59)
Don’t expect this ADP to stick if Kadarius Toney’s injury persists throughout the preseason, but it’s worth capitalizing while we still can. Skyy Moore was slowly ramped up in his rookie season, but he stands to see a big uptick in his work with JuJu Smith-Schuster out of the way. He’ll see an even larger slice of the pie if Toney can’t stay healthy.
Roschon Johnson, RB, Chicago Bears
ADP 13.03 (RB49)
Every year we see late-round rookie running backs surface at the end of the season and help propel teams to their fantasy championship. Will that be Roschon Johnson this season? Hell if I know. But he does have many of the characteristics of that type of player. He’s an exciting play maker with a three-down skill set. He’ll be buried in the pecking order behind D’Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert to start the season, so much like Tyler Allgeier last season, you’ll need to be patient if you draft him. However, that patience could pay major dividends.
