WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Saturday offers a strong eight-game slate in the NBA that features a handful of high-total contests that we should be attacking for DFS purposes. Join me as I walk you through all eight games, highlighting which players stand out and which players aren’t as appealing for fantasy.
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Milwaukee Bucks @ Charlotte Hornets
MIL -7.5, total: 228
Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off another game with more than 60 fantasy points, yet he still remains under $11,000 on DraftKings. I pretty much will have interest in Giannis every slate when priced in this range, and while you might worry about the Bucks blowing Charlotte out here, he’s still averaging 1.58 fantasy points per minute, while his usage rate is hovering around 34%. So we know this is a player who can score 60 fantasy points in 32 minutes, never mind what he can do in 37 or 38 minutes. Charlotte’s defense is nothing to fear, ranking 23rd against dimers, 24th against primary ball handlers, 26th against skilled centers and 23rd against rebounders this season, per advanced DvP. Giannis is also sporting a massive 34% rebounding rate, while his 16.7 rebounding chances per game are good for the 13th-most in basketball. With the Hornets playing a ton of zone defense, that doesn’t exactly bode extremely well for a player like Giannis who doesn’t offer much from the perimeter, however, I don’t fear Cody Zeller or P.J. Washington as rim protectors.
That rebounding rate has obviously hurt someone like Brook Lopez, who is usually tough to consider at his price because he is averaging just 5.2 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, the center position is always loaded, and Lopez is only center-eligible. However, I would not be shocked if he had a ceiling game here. For starters, the Hornets are coughing up 18.1 rebounds per game to opposing centers this season, the most in basketball. They also rank dead last at defending opposing stretch centers, as well as 22nd against rim protectors. It isn’t too shocking to see the Hornets rank 30th against stretch fives, as 40% of the points scored against this defense come from beyond the arc, a top-three rate in the league. Meanwhile, Khris Middleton is usually very safe at his price, averaging 1.24 fantasy points per minute, while both his rebound and assist rates are pushing the 20% mark.
For Charlotte, no one really stands out as a core play. I will say, however, LaMelo Ball is an intriguing GPP option, as he’s coming off a 30-minute game Friday, his most minutes in a game over his last seven contests. With LaMelo sporting strong metrics such as a 23.5% usage rate, 25% rebounding rate and 24% assist rate, he could smash at $5,600 if he can play 30 minutes again. He is converting 62% of his rebounding opportunities and this is a pace-up spot for Ball, which are situations he can thrive in. I also think you can go right back to Cody Zeller, who continues to start and is still just $4,500 on DraftKings.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Chicago Bulls
CHI -2.5, total: 232
This game is extremely appealing, as it features two teams that rank inside the bottom-five in defensive efficiency this season. Meanwhile, the Bulls are second in the league in pace. The Portland players are super enticing here and it obviously starts with Damian Lillard, who was underwhelming in his last game but should be able to do whatever he wants here. We know the offense is running through Dame right now, as over his last five games, Lillard is fifth in the league in touches (95.0), second in time of possession (9.7) per game and third in average seconds per touch (6.11). Over the last week, Lillard is posting a 32% usage rate and now gets an elite matchup with a Bulls defense that is surrendering a league-leading 25.7 points per game to opposing pick and roll ball handlers (25.7), as well as the most points per possession (1.05) and the highest field goal percentage (50.5%) off the play type. That bodes well for Lillard, who is third in the NBA in points per game as the ball handler out of the pick and roll (14.2), while his 12.4 such possessions per game are the third-most in the league. Lillard should be viewed as one of the top overall plays of the slate tonight.
Meanwhile, this is also a great matchup for Enes Kanter, who has obviously been more productive since Jusuf Nurkic went down with an injury. With Nurkic and CJ McCollum off the floor this season, Kanter is sporting a massive 47% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.22 fantasy points per minute. Chicago’s frontcourt is nothing to fear, as they are coughing up the seventh-most post-up points per contest (5.8), as well as the eighth-worst field goal percentage (51.3%). Kanter, meanwhile, does a lot of work in the post, sporting a 15% frequency rate. And with Derrick Jones out and Robert Covington questionable, I’d have no issue going right back to Carmelo Anthony at $5,500. He wasn’t great last time out, but he’s played 35 and 38 minutes over the last two games, as he continues to start at the power forward. And Melo is also active in the post-up game, averaging 4.0 such points per game this season, the eighth-most in basketball. Finally, if Covington doesn’t play, you could take a shot on Rodney Hood at $3,800 on DraftKings.
I also have plenty of interest in the Chicago side here. Zach LaVine is a very strong play, especially when under $9,000. His usage rate is flirting with 30% on the season, while averaging a strong 1.25 fantasy points per minute. He has eight games of 30 or more real points this season and has a great chance of making it a ninth against this weak Portland defense. Meanwhile, although Lauri Markkanen hasn’t been all that great since the Bulls lost Wendell Carter, I’m still intrigued by him here. His usage rate jumps up by nearly 2% with Carter off the floor this season, while averaging 1.07 fantasy points per minute and sporting a 20% rebounding rate. Markkanen continues to spot-up a ton, averaging the fifth-most spot-up points per game on the year (6.5), while also ranking fifth in points per game off catch-and-shoot opportunities (7.8). Portland, meanwhile, is coughing up the sixth-most spot-up points per game (29.8), as well as the sixth-highest field goal percentage (41.8%).
Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans
HOU -1, total: 223
This is the second end of a back-to-back for the Pelicans, though I don’t see anyone resting here outside of maybe JJ Redick or a veteran. Lonzo Ball was questionable heading into Friday’s game against Milwaukee but ultimately played and played well, scoring 27 points while adding eight assists and three rebounds in 35 minutes. For whatever reason, Lonzo — who is usually right under $6,000 on DraftKings — is just $5,000 Saturday night, which is really just a misprice. At that price tag, Ball should provide you with at the worst a very strong floor, while there is still a ceiling given his ability to rack up the peripherals. That is a very, very tough price to ignore, while Zion Williamson’s $7,400 price tag is quite cheap, too. We saw Zion pair his 21 points with some peripherals Friday night (7 rebounds, 9 assists) and while the Rockets have been a top-five defense since the James Harden trade, they are still surrendering the fourth-most points per game off putbacks on the season, the fourth-most in basketball. That bodes well for a player like Zion, who is third in the NBA in putback points per contest (3.5). Ball and Zion are easily the top two players from this New Orleans team, while Brandon Ingram isn’t a priority for me on this slate.
All Christian Wood does is produce. In 13 games played this season, Wood has recorded at least 40 fantasy points nine times, as he continues to enjoy his breakout campaign with the Rockets. Over the last four weeks, Wood is sporting a 29.3% usage rate and 35% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.34 fantasy points per minute. And because the Rockets have only played Wood and Cousins for all of 6.4 minutes this season, the usage and rebounding chances all belong to him whenever he is on the court. I have interest in him here, facing a Pelicans defense that not only allows the third-highest field goal percentage at the rim (68.1%) but also the fourth-most points per game to the roll man out of the pick and roll (8.7). Meanwhile, no player in the NBA is averaging more points per game as the roll man than Wood (7.0), while he is also second in such possessions (5.8) and third in shot attempts (5.1) per game. I also have interest in John Wall at $6,800 on DraftKings. After being limited for a bit, his minutes jumped back up to 30 the other night and I think we could get a normal allotment of minutes from Wall here. And if that is the case, this is a price tag to attack.
Sacramento Kings @ Miami Heat
MIA -6, total: 225
It feels like we have to monitor who is available for the Heat every single slate. This time, we already have word Goran Dragic is out, while Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler are questionable. Herro returned after a seven-game absence Thursday, which makes me believe he is more toward probable, but if his neck continues to bother him, he could certainly sit. Meanwhile, Butler hasn’t played since Jan. 9 due to COVID-19 protocol and even if he’s active, you have to wonder if he’s limited at all. Butler has been ramping up his conditioning, but it is something we have to keep tabs on. If we get word Butler will be full-go, you have to like him at $7,300 against one of the worst defensive units in basketball. Sacramento ranks 29th against both dimers and crafty finishers this season, while they have struggled to defend wings all year. If Butler and Herro are active, Kendrick Nunn becomes a fade for me at $6,200 on DraftKings, while I likely wouldn’t heavily target Bam Adebayo, who is incredible but priced at his ceiling at the moment. This is a very nice pace-up spot for the Heat but depending on who is in will determine my interest in this team. Finally, it isn’t exciting but if Butler and Andre Iguodala are out, KZ Okpala wouldn’t be the worst value play at $3,000 on DraftKings. Moe Harkless has already been ruled out, too.
The Kings don’t excite me in this spot too much. My favorite player from this team would actually be Buddy Hield, who is just $6,300 after coming off consecutive strong games. He is playing huge minutes in any competitive games this season, while he continues to do a lot of his damage off of screens. Hield is averaging 2.2 points per game off screens this season, tied for the 12th-most in the league. Meanwhile, his 17.8% frequency rate off the play type is good for the fifth-highest mark in basketball. The Heat are allowing the fourth-most points per possession to opposing shooters off screens this year (1.10), as well as the fifth-worst field goal percentage (45.5%). The matchup is obviously much better if Butler doesn’t suit up, however.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics
LAL -2, total: 219
This should be a very good game for real life, but not too many players stand out for fantasy.
For the Lakers, Anthony Davis should be back, which takes me off any of the Los Angeles wings like Kyle Kuzma. LeBron James, meanwhile, is playing at an MVP level and is always in play in a game with a close spread, though I’d be lying if I said he’s a top option for me tonight.
Meanwhile, the Celtics aren’t too exciting either, as they are facing arguably the best defense in basketball. I definitely don’t hate Jaylen Brown’s $8,000 price tag on DraftKings, especially since Kemba Walker is going to remain on a minutes limit for the foreseeable future. Brown is averaging 19.7 shot attempts per game, while sporting a healthy 31.2% usage rate and 1.33 fantasy points per minute. Of course, Jayson Tatum also has plenty of upside at his $8,500 price tag but outside of that, this is a game I’ll enjoy watching, but I don’t have much interest in players in DFS.
Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs
SAS -4.5, total: 223
The Grizzlies haven’t played since Jan. 18 due to coronavirus-related issues, so it is nice to have them back. Of course, they will remain without center Jonas Valanciunas, and the last time Memphis was on a slate, we were prepared to have an elite value play in Xavier Tillman before that game was postponed. The last time we saw Tillman in action, he entered the starting lineup against the Suns, logging 29 minutes and scoring 25 fantasy points. He is sporting a solid 20% rebounding rate with Valanciunas off the floor this season, while averaging a fantasy point per minute. Valanciunas is averaging 19.1 rebounding chances per game on the year, good for the sixth-most in the NBA, opening up many opportunities for players like Tillman and Brandon Clarke to grab more boards here. You also have to love the $7,100 price tag on Ja Morant, who is sporting a 29.7% usage rate with JoVal off the floor this season, while averaging 1.25 fantasy points per minute. This is a favorable matchup, as the Spurs rank 24th against dimers, 26th against primary ball handlers and dead last against crafty finishers. Morant, meanwhile, is averaging 20.6 drives per game on the season, good for the third-most in the league.
For the Spurs, I loved both DeMar DeRozan and Dejounte Murray Friday night, as both were far too cheap on DraftKings. Both eclipsed 40 fantasy points and I have to be honest, both remain too cheap again here. Yes, San Antonio is expected to get Derrick White back into the lineup but he’s played one game all year long, so he is surely to be limited. I have talked about Murray’s strong rebounding totals, as he continues to lead the Spurs in rebounding chances per game, while the assists, points and steals are also there. Murray should be much closer to the $7,000 price and this matchup is very solid. I also think Keldon Johnson is a fairly safe option at $5,800, as he’s also been a very solid rebounder over the course of his rookie season.
Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks
DAL -2.5, total: 217
Phoenix will remain without both Devin Booker and Cameron Payne for this game, making the Suns once again a very interesting team. You can throw their last game out the window, as the Warriors made a run to put that game out of reach, limiting the minutes for essentially all of their starters. Chris Paul barely played the final quarter and after logging just 25 minutes, his price has come back down to $7,600 on DraftKings, which is too cheap with Booker and Payne out. He is sporting a solid 26% usage rate and 27% assist rate with Booker off the floor this season, while averaging 1.20 fantasy points per minute. And over the last three games with Booker sidelined, Paul is averaging 93.0 touches per game, the sixth-most in the league during that span, while his 8.9 minutes of possession per game trail only Trae Young and Damian Lillard. Dallas has been good at defending guards this season, but I still have a lot of interest in Paul tonight. The same can be said for Deandre Ayton, who got into a bit of foul trouble last game. And at the time he did, the Warriors pulled away, leading to Ayton not even stepping onto the floor in the fourth quarter. He still scored 36 fantasy points in 23 minutes of action and gets a strong matchup against a Mavericks unit that is surrendering the second-highest field goal percentage at the rim in basketball at 68.2%. Dallas is also dead last at defending opposing roll men out of the pick and roll, surrendering the most points per game out of the play type (10.5), as well as the fifth-most points per possession (1.19). Meanwhile, I have no problem getting to Cam Johnson, who continues to start for the Suns, at $5,300 and although Jae Crowder is averaging 36.2 fantasy points per game over his last three, I feel safer with Johnson at his price.
This is the second end of a back-to-back for Dallas, which means it is possible that Kristaps Porzingis sits. He sat on their last back-to-back and if he’s out, you feel even better than you already do about Luka Doncic, as his usage rate jumps up to a whopping 38.6% mark with Porzingis off the floor, while sporting a 27% rebounding rate and 25% assist rate. If KP sits and Maxi Kleber remains out, you could look to Willie Cauley-Stein as a value option, who is sporting a solid 26% rebounding rate with Porzingis off the floor.
Detroit Pistons @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -5.5, total: 224.5
Stephen Curry has been under 40 fantasy points in each of his last two games, but I still believe he is someone you want to have exposure to on most slates. He is dominating the usage for the Warriors, sporting a 31.2% clip. There is nothing wrong with this matchup, as the Pistons are coughing up the ninth-most points per game off screens this season (4.8), as well as the 10th-worst field goal percentage off the play type (43.2%). That bodes well for Curry, who is third in the NBA in points per game off screens (3.8), while sporting a healthy 15.1% frequency rate. Detroit also ranks 27th against dimers, 29th against primary ball handlers and 29th against crafty finishers. Once again, however, the rest of this team doesn’t excite me too much. Andrew Wiggins likely won’t crush your lineup at his price tag but there just isn’t a massive ceiling for Wiggins, Kelly Oubre or Draymond Green right now, while James Wiseman continues to come off the bench.
For the Pistons, it is Jerami Grant or bust here. His price has dipped back below $8,000 on DraftKings and this is a solid matchup, facing a Warriors team that ranks third in the NBA in pace on the season. We know he is just way more involved in his first season with the Pistons, as his usage rate is up by around 6% compared to last season with Denver.
