NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
It’s a busy 12-game slate in the NHL Saturday, with most DFS sites including the 11 evening matchups in their featured contests. The Lightning, Panthers and Blues are the largest favorites on the docket, and the North Division tilts project to be the highest scoring.
Here’s a quick-hit look at all 11 evening matchups with notes, recommendations and fades.
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Pittsburgh Penguins (-108) at New York Rangers
Following a four-game winning streak, including two wins over the Rangers, the Penguins were swept by the Bruins and scored just three games over the two games. New York enters after winning just its second game of the season Thursday — a 3-2 overtime victory over Buffalo to improve to a disappointing 2-4-1 record. The Rangers’ biggest shortcoming has been secondary scoring and goaltending. Only Artemi Panarin and Pavel Buchnevich have made a notable offensive dent with eight and six points through seven games, respectively, and the Rangers own an underwhelming .895 team save percentage despite allowing a middle-of-the-pack 9.4 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes.
Pittsburgh’s goaltending has been worse, though. Only the Ottawa Senators have a worse team save percentage, and there’s more off-ice news surrounding the Penguins because of their on-ice worries. Evgeni Malkin has only recorded a goal and two assists through eight games, and Kris Letang also has just three helpers on the season. Beware of honing in on Pittsburgh skaters Saturday.
New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers (-122)
This projects to be a telling miniseries, as the Islanders have fallen flat with three straight losses, and the last two were against the shorthanded Capitals. Philadelphia, on the other hand, took care of business against the inferior Devils without their No. 1 center. While the Flyers will be without Sean Couturier (ribs) again Saturday, don’t forget how dominant netminder Carter Hart has been on home ice with a 23-4-2 record, .938 save percentage and 1.81 GAA dating back to the beginning of last season. With the Islanders scoring the third-fewest goals per hour in the league, it sets up nicely for the third-year goalie to stay hot at the Wells Fargo Center.
For the Islanders, while their offensive shortcomings have been noted, they continue to play strong defense with just 2.43 goals against and only 7.01 high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes. As expected, Mathew Barzal is leading the way offensively up front, but Noah Dobson is also settling in nicely with a goal, four assists and three power-play points through seven games to start the campaign. The 2018 first-round selection is quickly establishing himself as an important piece of the New York blueline corps and a potential value in DFS contests and seasonal add candidate to keep tabs on.
Boston Bruins (-150) at Washington Capitals
Firstly, after already missing four games for the Capitals, Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov and Ilya Samsonov are still considered day-to-day and remain in the COVID-19 protocol as precaution. All four could end up being active for Saturday’s game against Boston, but it’s a wait-and-see situation. Washington picked up seven of a possible eight points without the four Russians going 3-0-1 over its past four, but there’s no denying their return would be a notable boost. It’s worth noting Vitek Vanecek sports a respectable 4-0-2 record, .915 save percentage and 2.75 GAA through his six starts, and the rookie could push Samsonov for starts in the immediate future.
While the Capitals have some uncertainties, it appears likely David Pastrnak will return to the Boston lineup Saturday. The 24-year-old winger will provide an immediate boost for the Bruins, as he’s racked up an elite 326 points — 155 goals — through 293 games over the past four seasons, and he should slot right back into a go-to offensive role. It may take a game or two to return to full speed and find his scoring touch, but it’s probably just as likely that Pastrnak picks up right where he left off — piling up points. It’s worth noting that defenseman Matt Grzelcyk is doubtful for Saturday’s contest, whereas Tuukka Rask is expected back between the pipes after watching Thursday’s game from the press box.
Dallas Stars at Carolina Hurricanes (-129)
It’ll be important to monitor both lineups heading into Saturday’s game, as Dallas and Carolina have a number of players in limbo. Additionally, both clubs are coming off impressive wins. Carolina shut out Tampa Bay 1-0 on Thursday, whereas Dallas is off to a 4-0 start with a plus-13 goal differential. The Hurricanes are definitely an uptick in class, though. Still, with just four games played a piece, it’s hard to glean too much from their respective starts. Still, there’s probably an on-paper advantage for the Hurricanes considering Dallas’ injury-depleted lineup.
The Stars have been led offensively by Joe Pavelski, John Klingberg and Denis Gurianov, whereas Anton Khudobin has stopped 72 of 75 shots through three games. Dallas is also allowing just 7.25 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Carolina’s a possession-driven team and owns a league-high 55.4 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five this year. However, the big switch for the Hurricanes has been Petr Mrazek’s play. He’s turned in two shutouts already and stopped 63 of 66 shots through his three starts.
Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning (175)
Tampa Bay is coming off consecutive losses with just two goals scored, so it would be surprising if they didn’t have a decent offensive showing. The Predators owned a 29th-ranked 76.1 penalty-kill percentage last season and have already allowed 10 goals while shorthanded this year, so look for the Tampa Bay power play to have quality chances. Additionally, while Nashville beat Chicago in both games of their recent miniseries, the Predators had dropped three in a row before that. This should set up as a bounceback spot for the Lightning.
The two teams have been stingy at five-on-five with Tampa Bay ranking fifth-lowest and Nashville sixth in goals against per hour, and both clubs also have solid possession numbers. Additionally, the two teams own the fourth and fifth highest team save percentage at five-on-five. As a result, this might not set up as the most fantasy friendly game on the docket, and the only real mismatch is special teams. The Lightning also boast the superior talent, at least on paper. This should be a solid spot for Andrei Vasilevskiy, though. The Russian owns a 45-15-3 record, .922 save percentage and 2.40 GAA on home ice over the past three years, after all.
Florida Panthers (-175) at Detroit Red Wings
Detroit enters with four consecutive losses and 19 goals against during the stretch, and Florida has yet to lose in regulation with a 3-0-1 record this year. It would be surprising if a number of Florida skaters weren’t popular DFS targets, and Carter Verhaeghe stands out as a potential value. The first-year Panther has marked the scoresheet in all four games this season, and he boasts an impressive scoring track record. Of course, skating on the No. 1 line with Aleksander Barkov doesn’t hurt, either. Additionally, while it’s been a so-so start for Sergei Bobrovsky, the Red Wings check out as a favorable opponent. Detroit has scored just 1.4 goals and generated only 7.14 high-danger scoring chances per hour at five-on-five this season.
Shifting to the Red Wings, it’s quickly looking like another lost season. Dylan Larkin will likely be the only consistent scorer for the team, and he’s been held to three tallies and three helpers through eight games. Anthony Mantha is definitely underachieving to start the campaign, and there should be positive regression ahead of his 5.9 shooting percentage. Still, it’s difficult to turn to Detroit confidently.
Calgary Flames at Montreal Canadiens (127)
Montreal hasn’t lost in regulation this season and boasts a 5-0-2 record to rank second in the North Division. The Canadiens are also filling the net with 4.62 goals per 60 minutes and at least three goals in each game 21 through their past four contests. It’s also been a balanced attack with 10 Habs with at least five points through seven games, however, that can be tough to peg for daily contests. Additionally, there’s likely a degree of negative regression ahead, Montreal’s 103.5 PDO is the fourth-highest mark in the league, after all.
With that in mind, there’s upset potential for the Flames Saturday. Calgary has lost three straight games, including the 4-2 loss to Montreal on Thursday. In particular, Matthew Tkachuk has taken some lumps the past few games and been limited to just a single goal through the past four games despite logging 21:12 of ice time (5:00 of power-play time) per game. Additionally, there’s likely statistical correction ahead of Jacob Markstrom’s current .911 save percentage. While it sounds silly — at least this early in the season — this sets up as a near must-win game for Calgary to keep pace with the rest of the North Division.
Toronto Maple Leafs (132) at Edmonton Oilers
With Thursday’s 4-3 win, the Maple Leafs have now beaten Edmonton in consecutive meetings and sport a four-game winning streak. The Oilers, meanwhile, have now lost two straight and five of their past seven. They’re generating the third most high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five, but defensively, they’re still struggling with 3.17 goals against per hour — third in the league. Toronto has surrendered just 2.02, for comparison.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have combined for 11 goals and 27 points already. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kailer Yamamoto and Darnell Nurse have provided some secondary scoring, but without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice, Edmonton has allowed 20 goals and only scored three through nine games. Still, there’s reason to believe in a rebound showing from the Oilers, as Toronto’s four straight wins have all been by a single goal, and it’s difficult to beat any team in the league three consecutive times.
Colorado Avalanche (-162) at Minnesota Wild
Minnesota is playing impressive five-on-five hockey with the most high-danger scoring chances generated and the second fewest allowed. It’s led to a 5-3 start, which is tied for second in the division with the Avalanche. The Wild will be without key winger Kevin Fiala Saturday due to a three-game suspension, though. The ban is a blow to Minnesota’s depth, and on paper, the Wild are overmatched.
Colorado is coming off its first two-game sweep of the season outsourcing San Jose 10-3 the past two games, and the Avalanche have scored 3.49 goals per hour this season en route to a plus-10 goal differential. Even scarier for the West Division, Nathan MacKinnon hasn’t fully hit stride with just two goals, a 5.6 shooting percentage and just three assists through his past four contests. The superstar has a multi-point showing in waiting, and while the Wild have been stingy this year, MacKinnon is matchup proof.
St. Louis Blues (-175) at Anaheim Ducks
This is one of the largest mismatches on the docket. The Ducks have scored only 14 goals through eight games and leaned heavily on 27-year-old netminder John Gibson. He’s been a wall to date with a .942 save percentage through seven games. It’s an unsustainable run, though. Anaheim has surrendered the most high-danger scoring chances per hour in the league this season, and while Gibson is a legitimate talent, his save percentage had declined in each of the previous two seasons to a .904 mark in 2019-20.
Interestingly, the Blues haven’t been dangerous at five-on-five with a league-low 6.61 high-danger scoring chances at five-on-five. However, they’ve still scored 22 times through seven games. Additionally, it’s probably safe to expect the Blues to begin creating more quality chances — and likely beginning Saturday. With Anaheim’s noted scoring struggles, look for Jordan Binnington to have a bounce-back showing in net for St. Louis. He’s sporting a solid 4-1-1 record, but there’s room for improvement in his .913 save percentage and 2.74 GAA.
Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets (-129)
This North Division matchup should prove to be a high-scoring affair with Vancouver averaging 3.5 goals per game and Winnipeg sitting at 4.0. Both teams are also allowing plenty, too. The Canucks got right during a three-game series against Ottawa with three straight wins and a cumulative 16-3 score. Vancouver will have a tougher opponent Saturday. Winnipeg has opened the season with a 5-2 record and scored three or more goals in six of seven games.
It will be interesting to see how Thatcher Demko holds up against the Jets. The 25-year-old goaltender is coming off consecutive wins with just two goals allowed and 77 saves. He struggled (.866 save percentage and 5.47 GAA through three starts) before shutting down the Senators, so the high-scoring Jets should prove to be an admirable foe. After all, Winnipeg has six skaters scoring at a point-per-game pace or better. Vancouver has also found an offensive groove with Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes both posting consecutive multi-point games. Expect the top skaters from both clubs to be popular DFS targets Saturday.
