Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
An 11-game slate at this point of the NBA season can be very, very stressful. There are so many injuries, while other players are resting as this season comes to a close. Make sure you are tracking all of the news over the course of the afternoon.
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Thunder @ 76ers preview
PHI -11, total: 219
We’ll have to keep an eye on the 76ers injury report, as both Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris are questionable to play. Embiid didn’t play over the weekend with a shoulder injury but I do expect him to suit up tonight. Harris, meanwhile, has played in each of Philadelphia's last two games but is still dealing with soreness in his knee. Assuming Embiid is active, he is one of the best plays of the slate, especially at just $10,200 on DraftKings. He faces a Thunder team that is coughing up the fourth-most points per possession (1.01) and fourth-highest field goal percentage (52.9%) to the post this season. That obviously bodes extremely well for a player like Embiid, who leads the NBA in both points (10.0) and possessions (9.3) per game off post-ups this season. The Thunder also rank 28th against rebounders and 27th against superstars, according to FTN's advanced DVP tool. Meanwhile, if Harris plays, he is more than viable at $7,600, especially with Ben Simmons already ruled out. He is sporting a 28.4% usage rate and 25% rebounding rate with Simmons off the floor this season while averaging 1.24 fantasy points per minute. Shake Milton is also sporting a 28% usage rate with Simmons off the court and should play 28-32 minutes in a friendly matchup. Oklahoma City ranks dead last against opposing benches this season and 23rd against scorers, making this a favorable spot for Milton.
For the Thunder, no one stands out as great options tonight. Isaiah Roby’s minutes have been up as of late, resulting in less playing time for Moses Brown. Darius Bazley has been strong as of late, averaging 21.4 points, 7.4 rebounds and 36 fantasy points per game over his last five outings. Luguentz Dort is also becoming more and more the focal point of this offense, attempting at least 15 shots in six of his last eight games, while sporting a healthy 30.1% usage rate over the last two weeks. Both Bazley and Dort are viable options, though nowhere close to priorities.
Spurs @ Wizards preview
SAS -3.5, total: 227.5
Washington is coming off the front end of a back-to-back so be sure that no one rests here. Assuming no one does, I think you know who to target from this team. Russell Westbrook is coming off his worst game in a long, long time but is still an extremely strong candidate to record a triple-double, as he’s accomplished the feat in nine of his last 11 games. And over the last 15 games, Westbrook leads the NBA in touches per game while also ranking inside the top-10 in rebounding chances per game during that span. Hence, all these triple-doubles. Meanwhile, Bradley Beal is still very fairly priced at $9,700 on DK and has been very strong over his last five or six games.
San Antonio is pretty healthy right now and they get a nice pace-up spot against a Wizards team that plays at the fastest pace in all of basketball. As I always say, Dejounte Murray seemingly never moves from that $7,100 price tag on DK, which is where he is at again tonight. He is a safe bet to get you 33-40 fantasy points each night, but this is an upside spot for him in a faster-paced game. Murray is still sporting a healthy 22% rebounding rate and 17% assist rate on the season and facing a ball-dominant guard like Westbrook tends to lead to more steals for a player like Murray, who is already averaging 1.6 per game on the year. Meanwhile, Derrick White has been very good as of late, averaging 36 fantasy points per game in over 31 minutes per game over his last six contests. This is a good spot for both San Antonio guards, as the Wizards rank 24th against dimers and 28th against primary ball handlers this season. They also rank 27th against crafty finishers, which will help Murray, who is averaging around 12 drives per game on the season. Of course, DeMar DeRozan is always among the league leaders in that department and this year is no different, as he ranks sixth in the NBA in drives per game (18.3). He’s a fine play, while I am still intrigued by Keldon Johnson at $5,300 on DK. Johnson is sporting a solid 22% rebounding rate this year and has walked into some huge rebounding performances this season. It isn’t crazy to think it can happen again, especially in a spot where there should be more possessions available. The Wizards are also allowing the third-most points per possession to spot-up shooters this season (1.09), while Johnson is averaging 5.2 spot-up points per game this season. White, meanwhile, is averaging 5.7 such points per game, good for the seventh-most in basketball.
Lakers @ Magic preview
LAL -10, total: 211
Anthony Davis has been back in the Lakers lineup for two games. In that stretch, he is sporting a massive 35.6% usage rate while averaging 9.0 post-ups per game. I was surprised to see him log 28 minutes in Los Angeles’ last game and although he shot 5 of 19 from the field, the usage is fantastic, making him a viable tournament option even if he doesn’t play 35 minutes or so. Meanwhile, Dennis Schroder is questionable to play with a sore calf and if he sits out, Alex Caruso would be in line for more minutes and could become a value play at $3,700 on DK. But if Schroder is active, he’s a good but not great option, while the rest of this Lakers team isn’t as exciting with Davis back and taking up so much of the usage.
I also don’t love the Orlando side either, to be honest. Cole Anthony is still averaging nearly six seconds per touch but doesn’t offer the highest ceiling, though he should continue to touch the ball a good bit with Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross sidelined. Meanwhile, I don’t love paying nearly $7,000 for Wendell Carter Jr., especially with Davis and Andre Drummond forming a formidable duo in the frontcourt. The minutes should also be there for Gary Harris but his usage is so, so incredibly low, even with this depleted Orlando roster.
Hawks @ Pistons preview
ATL -3, total: 217
Trae Young has missed the last two games for the Hawks and will be listed as questionable again for Monday’s contest. In his absence, Bogdan Bogdanovic has handled the ball a lot more and is coming off a game where he scored 32 points. If Young remains out, Bogdanovic will remain in play at $7,800, as his touches per game skyrocket when Young is sidelined. Meanwhile, John Collins’ usage rate jumps up by 5.3% with Young off the floor this season, putting him at a 27.6% mark in the split while averaging 1.15 fantasy points per minute. He hasn’t had a huge game in Young’s absence but there is still upside, especially in a strong matchup like this. Detroit ranks dead last in basketball against rebounders, 26th against skilled centers and 25th against crafty finishers on the year. You can also feel great about Kevin Huerter’s minutes with De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish still sidelined, while you know what you are going to continue to get from Clint Capela.
For the Pistons, Mason Plumlee is coming off a huge game over the weekend, scoring 17 points to go along with 21 rebounds, five assists and two blocks. Of course, his minutes have been up-and-down as of late for the rebuilding Pistons, so there is always the risk that he plays 16-20 minutes while Isaiah Stewart returns to the 28-30 minute range. Although, veteran Cory Joseph has been playing consistent minutes lately, logging at least 30 minutes in six of his last seven games. Over the last two weeks, Joseph is averaging just under a fantasy point per minute and continues to start over Killian Hayes at point guard. I also like the $6,700 price tag on Jerami Grant, who is still sporting a massive 32.6% usage rate over the last two weeks.
Cavaliers @ Raptors preview
TOR -10, total: 216.5
The Cavs were without Collin Sexton (concussion) on Sunday night, and there is a good chance he remains sidelined on Monday. In his absence, Darius Garland was productive, scoring 28 points to go along with nine assists and four rebounds in 40 minutes. That is now at least 38 fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games and over his last three games with Sexton out of the lineup, Garland is averaging over 90 touches per game, way up from his season average. And with Sexton off the court this season, Garland is sporting a near 27% usage rate to go along with a 20% assist rate. We also saw Cedi Osman’s minutes skyrocket with Sexton out on Sunday, as he started at small forward and played 37 minutes, scoring 31.5 fantasy points. If Sexton remains out, Osman becomes a very strong value play at $3,700. Meanwhile, we’ll have to see if Kevin Love is active, as this will be the second leg of a back-to-back for Cleveland. If he suits up, I like him at $6,800, especially if Sexton is out. The Raptors are coughing up the third-most points per game to spot-up shooters on the year (34.1). If he sits, Larry Nance gets a significant bump, while Jarrett Allen is in play regardless because of his very fair $7,000 price tag on DK.
The Raptors, meanwhile, will be without Chris Boucher, who suffered a sprained MCL recently. With Boucher out, Toronto will turn to recently acquired Khem Birch to play more minutes at the five and has now started each of the last five games. And in six games since joining the Raptors, Birch is averaging 9.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game while sporting a strong 24% rebounding rate during that stretch. Meanwhile, Fred VanVleet returned to the lineup on Saturday, scoring 27 points to go along with 11 assists and five rebounds. Both he and Kyle Lowry are strong options against a weak Cleveland defense while OG Anunoby projects as a very safe play at his price tag. He’s going to play 35-40 minutes in any tight game and likely score 35-40 fantasy points.
Suns @ Knicks preview
PHX -2, total: 215
This game might not be the greatest for fantasy, as it features two teams inside the bottom-six in pace, while both ball clubs are also inside the top-five in defensive rating. For Phoenix, Cam Johnson could become a value option again if Jae Crowder sits again. The veteran has missed the last two games with an ankle sprain, moving Johnson into the starting five. Of course, the top plays from this team remain Devin Booker and Chris Paul but in this spot, I prefer saving $700 and going to CP3. Meanwhile, Deandre Ayton isn’t necessarily a bad play at just $6,600 but he’s been so up-and-down this season, while the ceiling hasn’t been the greatest.
For New York, Julius Randle, per usual, is the focal point. He’s been a star this season, especially as of late, scoring at least 49 fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games while scoring at least 40 in every contest during that span. Randle is still getting 84.6 touches per game this year, good for the 11th-most in the NBA, while his 4.7 points per game off isolation are quietly the seventh-most in all of basketball. Phoenix, meanwhile, is allowing the most points per game in the league off isolation this year (8.8). We are also starting to see Derrick Rose get more trustworthy minutes for fantasy, logging at least 30 minutes in three of his last four games. He’s still coming off the bench, but Rose remains a high-usage player, sporting a 24% usage rate over the last two weeks while averaging over a fantasy point per minute during that span. Finally, Nerlens Noel could be worth a look at $4,500 on DraftKings, as he’s sporting a 33% rebounding rate over the last two weeks while blocking at least two shots in each of his last 10 games.
Bulls @ Heat preview
MIA -6, total: 206
Zach LaVine will remain out for the Bulls, which has led to Coby White becoming a much better fantasy producer. With LaVine off the floor this season, White’s usage rate jumps up by 2.3%, while he’s averaging just under a fantasy point per minute in the split. And in the six games since LaVine has been out, White is averaging 78 touches per game, up from his season average of 64.2 per game. Nikola Vucevic, meanwhile, leads the Bulls in touches per game during that span at just over 79 per game while also averaging a league-high 14.2 post-ups per game during that stretch. Miami has been an above-average post-up defense this season but Vucevic’s usage and rebounding potential keep him in play every night, especially with LaVine out. We just saw him score 54 fantasy points against this Miami team the other night, too. And if you are feeling lucky, you could take a shot on Garrett Temple as a value play at $3,900 with LaVine out.
Miami, meanwhile, will remain without Victor Oladipo, while both Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn are listed as questionable for this game. Herro missed Saturday’s game, which led to huge minutes from Duncan Robinson while Trevor Ariza has now logged 30-plus minutes in each of his last six games. If Nunn is active and Herro is out, he becomes a very good play against a Bulls team that ranks 26th against primary ball handlers on the season. Of course, you know what you are going to get from both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, as both players present a tremendous combination of floor and ceiling. Bam’s price has finally come up to $8,800 on DK, but I still like this spot for him, as Chicago is coughing up the most points per game to opposing roll men in the pick and roll this year (10.9) while Adebayo is averaging 4.3 points per game off the play type, good for the seventh-most in all of basketball.
Clippers @ Pelicans preview
LAC -1.5, total: 228.5
For the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard will likely remain out with his foot injury. He’s now missed the last two games and during that stretch, Paul George is sporting an insane 42.2% usage rate, scoring 56.2 and 60 fantasy points in those two games. And with Leonard off the floor this season, George is sporting a healthy 36% usage rate to go along with a 21% rebounding rate and nearly 1.40 fantasy points per minute. We also see Marcus Morris get a huge bump in terms of minutes and usage with Leonard off the court, while Reggie Jackson should play 32-plus minutes and attempt 12-17 shots. However, Terance Mann is a lot cheaper than both Jackson and Morris at $4,800 on DK and is sporting a solid 20% rebounding rate with Leonard off the court this season.
Meanwhile, Zion Williamson is $10,100, a hefty price tag. However, he is in play every single slate due to his unstoppable ability to score the basketball and uptick in peripherals. The Pelicans are using him much more as both a ball handler and roll man out of the pick and roll and over the last two weeks, Williamson is sporting a near 32% usage rate and 24% rebounding rate. Brandon Ingram isn’t an awful play at $8,900 on DK but I think it is a bit too high of a price tag and I’d much rather play Lonzo Ball at $6,700. Finally, Steven Adams is questionable with a toe injury and if he sits, Jaxson Hayes could enter the starting lineup, while Willy Hernangomez will see a bump, too.
Jazz @ Timberwolves preview
UTA -9.5, total: 229
We know that Utah will remain without Donovan Mitchell and in his absence over the last three games, Mike Conley has obviously seen a bump in production and involvement. During that three-game span, Conley is averaging 83 touches per game and nearly seven minutes of possession per game. And with Mitchell off the floor this season, Conley is sporting a 24% usage rate and identical 24% assist rate while averaging 1.16 fantasy points per minute. When active, Mitchell operates a ton of the pick-and-roll offense, as he’s averaging the fifth-most points per game as the pick-and-roll ball handler (10.8). However, in his absence, Conley will fill that role, which bodes well against a Minnesota team that ranks 27th against primary ball handlers on the year. Jordan Clarkson, meanwhile, still has upside at his near $7,000 price tag, as he leads the Jazz with a 31.1% usage rate with Mitchell off the court this season. Minnesota also ranks 27th against scorers and 25th against opposing bench players this season. We also know that Joe Ingles handles the ball and facilitates a lot when one of the Utah guards is out, putting him firmly in play, too. Finally, Rudy Gobert at $8,600 on DK makes a ton of sense, too.
For Minnesota, regardless of whether or not he’s in the starting lineup, D'Angelo Russell is very viable here. He played 31 minutes last game against Utah, scoring nearly 33 fantasy points. Since returning to the lineup, Russell is sporting a healthy 28.3% usage rate and $6,400 is still a nice price tag to look to him while he likely won’t be as popular if he’s once again coming off the bench. Meanwhile, Karl-Anthony Towns is not ever going to be a bad play but at his price tag and in this matchup, I prefer some of the cheaper centers on this slate.
Grizzlies @ Nuggets preview
DEN -4, total: 228
For Memphis, we saw Jonas Valanciunas return from a three-game absence due to a concussion on Sunday. Per usual, he was efficient, scoring 43.5 fantasy points in 30 minutes. However, for the first time all season in this article, I have to talk about Jaren Jackson Jr., who has played two games since making his debut, scoring 33.5 and 33.2 fantasy points in 18 and 25 minutes. Jackson rested on Sunday but should be back on Monday and if he plays 25-28 minutes, he could be in play in this matchup. He’s attempted 25 shots and blocked five shots in two games. And while Ja Morant’s price tag is up over $8,000 after some huge games with Valanciunas sidelined, I still like him here against a Denver team that is surrendering the worst field goal percentage in all of basketball at the rim this season (68.4%). That bodes well for Morant, who is averaging 18.7 drives to the basket per game, good for the fourth-most in the NBA.
Just play Nikola Jokic, y’all. The best player in fantasy and arguably the league MVP, Jokic continues to post fantastic game after fantastic game and this is a favorable matchup, facing a Grizzlies team that is allowing a league-worst 1.08 points per possession to the post this season. Meanwhile, with Jamal Murray and now Will Barton out, players like PJ Dozier and Austin Rivers have seen more minutes and opportunities, while Jokic and Michael Porter Jr. continue to dominate the usage for Denver.
Mavericks @ Kings preview
DAL -6, total: 223.5
Will Dallas be very short-handed tonight? Both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis are questionable to play in this game while Josh Richardson is also questionable with a hamstring injury. If Doncic plays, he’s an elite option, as the Kings rank 30th against dimers, 30th against ball handlers, 29th against scorers and 29th against superstars this season, while also allowing the third-most isolation points per game on the year (8.1). Luka, meanwhile, is averaging 5.0 points per game off isolation, good for the fourth-most in basketball. If he sits, Jalen Brunson gets a massive bump, as he’s sporting a 23.1% usage rate, 16% rebounding rate and 18% assist rate with Doncic off the floor this season. Tim Hardaway Jr. would also become very interesting, even only if Richardson sits, as he has been closer to 30 minutes as of late. The Kings are allowing the fourth-most points per possession to opposing shooters off screens this season (1.07) while THJ is averaging right around 2.0 points per game off the play type. Meanwhile, if Porzingis is out, Maxi Kleber would remain a very strong value play. He logged 34 minutes and scored nearly 33 fantasy points over the weekend with KP out.
For Sacramento, the only player who really stands out is Tyrese Haliburton with De'Aaron Fox still out. Richaun Holmes isn’t playing huge minutes right now while Buddy Hield is a tad expensive, and this isn’t the greatest matchup, Meanwhile, I think Harrison Barnes has a very high floor right now, which makes him more of a cash play than GPP option at nearly $8,000 on DK.
