Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We have a loaded 11-game DFS slate around the NBA Wednesday night and there is honestly a ton to get into. Let’s not waste any time, shall we?
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Nets @ 76ers preview
PHI -6.5, total: 229
I have zero clue why Joel Embiid is just $10,000 on DraftKings ahead of this game, but I intend to take advantage. In five games since returning from a knee injury, Embiid is sporting an insane 38.9% usage rate, the second-highest mark in basketball during that stretch. He is also averaging 27.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 44 fantasy points per game during that span and now gets a very friendly matchup with a weak Brooklyn interior defense. The Nets are surrendering a league-leading 7.4 post-up points per game this season, while opposing teams are posting up 6.7% of the time against them, the highest rate in the league. Embiid, meanwhile, leads the NBA in post-up points per game this season (8.9), while averaging a healthy 13 post-ups per game over his last five outings. Brooklyn also ranks 26th against rebounders and 23rd against skilled centers this year, per our advanced DVP tool, making this an elite spot for Embiid. Meanwhile, Ben Simmons’ price tag is the lowest it has been in a while, which is good. The bad news? The price drop is a result of a 10-game streak of scoring fewer than 40 fantasy points, as he remains very passive, attempting fewer than 10 shots in eight of his last 10 contests. Until we start to see him get more aggressive or post more peripherals, Simmons really isn’t too exciting for fantasy. Tobias Harris, meanwhile, is viable at $7,700 on DK but not a priority by any means.
Kyrie Irving missed Brooklyn’s last game for personal reasons and is listed as questionable for Wednesday’s contest. Kevin Durant’s minutes limit was increased last game, logging 27 minutes on Tuesday. We’ll see if the Nets rest him on the second end of a back-to-back and if they do and Irving also sits, the Nets become extremely short-handed. But if one of the two superstars are active, you’ll likely want some exposure. With Durant and James Harden off the floor this season, Irving is sporting a 34.2% usage rate, while averaging 1.56 fantasy points per minute in the split. I also have a lot of interest in Joe Harris, regardless of who is active for the Nets. You’ll feel better about him if Durant sits and he gets more shots, but this is a sneaky-good spot, facing a 76ers team that is allowing the third-most points per game to opposing shooters off screens this season (5.7). Harris, meanwhile, is averaging 2.2 points per game off screens, a top-12 number in the league. Philadelphia is also coughing up the fourth-most points per game to opposing shooting guards on the year.
Cavaliers @ Hornets preview
CHA -3.5, total: 213
There are plenty of injuries to monitor in this game. For Cleveland, Collin Sexton is questionable with a groin injury that kept him out of the last game. The Cavs were also without Darius Garland (ankle) in that same game, who is also questionable here. Without their top two guards Sunday, Cleveland started Matthew Dellavedova and Isaac Okoro along with Dean Wade, Kevin Love and Isaiah Hartenstein. Dellavedova paced Cleveland with 100 touches in their last game and recorded 10 assists, while recording 7.8 minutes of possession. If both guards are out again, Delly will be worth a look. So will Okoro, who is normally a low-usage player but sees an uptick in usage by default with Cleveland’s top two ball-handlers sidelined. Meanwhile, both Jarrett Allen and Larry Nance are off the injury report and ready to return. Neither has played since the end of March, which could make you worry about the minutes. But I’d be willing to take a chance on Allen, facing a Hornets team that is allowing the second-most rebounds per game to opposing centers on the season (16.89). I also have interest in Love at $6,400 on DK, despite the return of Nance. Love played 31 minutes last game and if he gets around those minutes again, he should be a great option, facing a Hornets team allowing a league-worst 37.1 points per game off spot-ups. Keep a very close eye on Cleveland’s injury report.
For Charlotte, Terry Rozier didn’t play Tuesday with a knee injury, nor did P.J. Washington. Their absences were very notable with Charlotte already without LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward and Malik Monk. The Hornets started Devonte' Graham, Caleb Martin, Jalen McDaniels, Miles Bridges and Bismack Biyombo Tuesday, and it’s possible we see the same lineup again Wednesday if Rozier and Washington remain sidelined. Martin would be an elite value play at $3,100, especially coming off a 41.5-point outing, while McDaniels would also be worth a look after logging 40 minutes. If Washington is out, Biyombo would also be a viable play.
Spurs @ Raptors preview
SAS -4.5, total: 222
Kyle Lowry rested on the front end of the back-to-back Tuesday, which pushed Malachi Flynn back into the starting lineup. Lowry should be back, but Flynn has been productive whenever he’s been in the starting lineup and could remain in the starting five if DeAndre Bembry (hamstring) is out once again. I think Lowry is a solid option at $7,600, who is sporting a 27.2% usage rate and 22% assist rate with Fred VanVleet off the floor this season. Meanwhile, the price tags on Chris Boucher and OG Anunoby scare me a bit and I’d feel better going up to Pascal Siakam at $8,500, who is coming off a huge game Tuesday. His usage rate is flirting with 28% with VanVleet off the court.
It is honestly the same old story for the Spurs right now. Dejounte Murray is a very safe play at his stagnant $7,100 price tag, as he offers a very strong floor. For the season, Murray is second on the Spurs in rebounding chances per game, while sporting a solid 22% rebounding rate and 16% assist rate. DeMar DeRozan, meanwhile, has been a bit up-and-down as of late but is still fairly priced and will head to his old stomping grounds in Toronto for this game.
Clippers @ Pistons preview
LAC -9, total: 221
Kawhi Leonard is nursing foot soreness and didn’t suit up Tuesday. After resting Sunday, Leonard has now missed two straight games and should be viewed as questionable for Wednesday. We saw Paul George dominate against his former team Tuesday, scoring 36 points to go along with 7 rebounds and 8 assists. He’s now scored at least 50 fantasy points in each of his last four games and with Leonard off the floor this season, George is sporting a massive 34.5% usage rate, while averaging 1.31 fantasy points per minute in the split. There is nothing wrong with this matchup, as the Pistons are allowing the sixth-most points per possession (0.99) off isolation this season, while George is averaging 3.6 isolation points per game, good for the 14th-most in the league. And without Leonard on the floor, George will isolate a lot. Meanwhile, Marcus Morris would make for a fine mid-range play at $5,500 if Leonard remains out, as he sees a near four percent bump in usage when he’s off the floor.
After missing three games with a knee injury, Jerami Grant is off the injury report and will play in this contest. His ceiling in fantasy has fallen off a cliff over the last month or so but with a usage rate north of 30% over the last two weeks, there is still upside for Grant at $6,900 on DK. We saw Cory Joseph go off last game, but the Pistons were without Killian Hayes and Dennis Smith in that game, on top of Grant. Mason Plumlee isn’t the worst play at $5,300, just as long as he gets 25-27 minutes.
Knicks @ Pelicans preview
NOP -2.5, total: 219
An ongoing hip injury has kept Lonzo Ball sidelined for three straight games, and with him listed as doubtful for Wednesday’s contest, it appears it will become a fourth. With Nickeil Alexander-Walker still out, Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram will continue to do the heavy lifting for this Pelicans team. Over the last three games, Williamson is averaging 90 touches per game and 6.7 minutes of possession per game, way up from his season averages of 61.1 and 3.3 minutes per game. The Pelicans are running their offense through Zion, who is sporting a 33% usage rate and averaging 1.49 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, James Johnson is questionable for the Pelicans, who has been playing meaningful minutes as of late. If he sits, Wes Iwundu and Naji Marshall would get bumps in minutes.
For New York, it is once again only Julius Randle on my radar. I cannot trust the point guard situation on this team, while RJ Barrett’s ceiling isn’t very high, and it also doesn’t show up very often. Randle is still the focal point of this team, averaging 84 touches per game on the year (11th-most).
Magic @ Bulls preview
CHI -9.5, total: 217.5
Nikola Vucevic will face the Magic for the first time since being traded away. Regardless of what you think about any sort of narrative here, Vucevic projects as a very safe play here at $9,200. Since joining the Bulls, the All-Star center is sporting a 27.7% usage rate and 30% rebounding rate, averaging 1.38 fantasy points per minute during that span. Meanwhile, Zach LaVine has been fantastic as of late, averaging 27.8 points and 49.4 fantasy points per game over his last six outings. No one else on this team stands out as great fantasy plays, especially with Coby White and Tomas Satoransky getting closer in minutes as of late.
For Orlando, Chuma Okeke is fighting through a hip injury. He was on a minutes restriction last game but still played a solid 27 minutes. Okeke is questionable for this game; if he sits out, James Ennis, Dwayne Bacon and Robert Franks would see upticks in minutes, though wouldn’t be the most exciting fantasy options. Wendell Carter at $6,000 is enticing here against his former team. Chicago ranks 25th against rebounders this season, while Carter is sporting a 30% rebounding rate since joining the Magic, while averaging a strong 16.1 rebounding chances per game during that stretch, up from his season average. Finally, I am still somewhat intrigued by Cole Anthony against a Bulls team that is allowing a league-leading 23.5 points per game to opposing ball handlers out of the pick and roll this season.
Pacers @ Rockets preview
IND -5, total: 232
I definitely have interest in Domantas Sabonis here, facing a Rockets team that is coughing up the third-most post-up points per game in the league (6.5), while Houston is also allowing the ninth-highest field goal percentage to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll (54.8%). That bodes well for Sabonis, who operates as the roll man as much as any power forward/center in basketball. And although he’s already among the league leaders in rebounding chances, they should remain solidified with Myles Turner out, as Sabonis is sporting a healthy 32% rebounding rate with Turner off the floor this season. Meanwhile, Malcolm Brogdon is intriguing at just $7,100 on DK, especially against a Rockets team that ranks inside the bottom-10 against dimers and primary ball handlers. I also don’t hate Caris LeVert, who has been red hot as of late and leads the Pacers in transition points per game this season (4.1), while no team in basketball is allowing more transition points per game than the Rockets (24.3).
Houston, meanwhile, isn’t really on my radar. John Wall is fairly priced at $8,000 while Christian Wood is slightly underpriced at $7,900 on DK but there are other players around their price ranges that I prefer on this slate.
Warriors @ Thunder preview
GSW -11.5, total: 224.5
Hey now, Luguentz Dort. Known for his defense, Dort went off for a career-high 42 points Tuesday night, while adding seven rebounds, three assists and four steals. The 31 shot attempts aren’t likely to be repeated but with Oklahoma City in full rebuild mode, Dort is going to have plenty of games where he carries the load offensively. Assuming he’s in the lineup again, $5,500 is still a fair price tag for a player who should play 34-37 minutes in a competitive game. Meanwhile, Moses Brown has been inconsistent as of late but still offers plenty of rebounding potential, hauling in 15 boards last game. Over the last 15 games, Brown is sixth in the NBA in rebounding chances per game (20.0) and now faces a Golden State team that is actually coughing up the most points per game off putbacks in all of basketball this season (7.4).
For Golden State, Stephen Curry is coming off another magical game, scoring 53 points and hitting 10 threes. He is in play every single night given his usage and upside, while the Thunder rank 25th in the league against superstars, according to our advanced DVP tool. Meanwhile, Kelly Oubre is likely to miss another game here, which will keep Kent Bazemore in the starting lineup. He’s started each of the last two games, logging 32 and 35 minutes during that stretch. And if Kevon Looney is going to continue playing 31 minutes, he needs to be discussed. The uptick in minutes is obviously related to James Wiseman’s injury but it also could have had to do with the fact that Golden State was facing a Denver team with plenty of size. I wouldn’t expect 31 minutes again (season-high) but at $3,700, he could be worth a look. Finally, I still have zero issues with Draymond Green at $6,900, as he still leads the Warriors in assist and rebounding rate on the year.
Mavericks @ Grizzlies preview
DAL -2, total: 225.5
Perhaps one of the best GPP plays of the slate is Kristaps Porzingis. He isn’t cheap at $8,900, which is why he likely will go a bit overlooked. But Porzingis is coming off consecutive great games, scoring 56 and 60 fantasy points. Now he faces a Grizzlies team that is allowing the most points per possession (1.12) and highest field goal percentage (58.4%) to the post this season. Porzingis, meanwhile, is averaging a healthy 4.2 post-up points per game on the year, good for the seventh-most in basketball, while shooting 51.4% off the play type. There is also added shot-blocking upside against a Grizzlies team that is averaging 53.6 drives per game on the year, the third-most in the league. Meanwhile, feel free to play Luka Doncic on any slate, as the floor is as high as it gets.
On the other side of this game, Jonas Valanciunas has been playing terrific basketball lately, averaging 47.3 fantasy points over his last six games. He’s a strong option again here, as Dallas can also be had in the post, surrendering the third-worst field goal percentage in the league off the play type (54%). JoVal, meanwhile, is averaging a solid 4.0 post-up points per game, while shooting nearly 55% from the field off the play type. Dillon Brooks is finally playing larger minutes and over his last three games, has attempted 19, 17 and 18 shots. The absences of De'Anthony Melton and Justise Winslow have made him a more trustworthy fantasy option.
Wizards @ Kings preview
WAS -2, total: 236
How do you not love this game for fantasy? We have two of the fastest-paced teams in basketball, as well as two of the worst defensive units. Russell Westbrook has to be viewed as one of the best plays of the slate, facing a Kings team that is surrendering the most points per possession in transition this season (1.24), as well as the highest field goal percentage off the play type (58.8%). That obviously bodes well for Westbrook, who is averaging 5.8 transition points per game on the year, good for the third-most in the NBA. Westbrook is also top-10 in isolation points per game (4.3), while the Kings are surrendering the second-most points per game off the play type (8.3). And the peripherals are through the roof right now, as Westbrook has recorded a triple-double in five straight games, as well as nine of his last 10 contests. Of course, Bradley Beal is also a very strong option against a Kings team that ranks dead last against crafty finishers, scorers, dimers and primary ball handlers this season, while ranking 29th against superstars. And in this game environment, I wouldn’t be opposed to taking a shot on Rui Hachimura at $6,200. The minutes should be there and in such a high-pace game, hopefully he can walk into some more rebounds, though Westbrook hauling in so many has hurt Hachimura’s fantasy upside.
The Kings, meanwhile, are a bit banged up right now. Richaun Holmes is listed as doubtful with a hamstring injury, while Buddy Hield remains questionable with an illness. With Marvin Bagley already out, Hassan Whiteside becomes very interesting, as he’s averaging 1.28 fantasy points per minute with both Holmes and Bagley off the floor this season, while sporting a healthy 40% rebounding rate. Daniel Gafford, however, might see more minutes, making him perhaps the safer value at $3,400 on DK. Of course, you should have no issues paying $9,600 for De'Aaron Fox in this game, as the Wizards are surrendering the fourth-most transition points per game in the league (20.8). Fox, meanwhile, is right behind Westbrook in transition scoring, averaging 5.6 such points per game this year, the fifth-most in the league. Washington is also allowing the second-highest field goal percentage off short mid-range shots this season (47.3%), where 28% of Fox’s shot attempts come from. Feel free to also play Tyrese Haliburton and Harrison Barnes at their fair price tags, especially if Hield remains sidelined.
Heat @ Nuggets preview
DEN -4, total: 213
Denver begins life without Jamal Murray, who suffered a torn ACL in their last game. In his absence, both Monte Morris and Facundo Campazzo will have to step up, though it has been Campazzo who has been starting with Murray out of the lineup recently. If he starts again, he’ll be worth a look at just $3,700 on DK. Of course, the offense will continue to run through Nikola Jokic, who is already averaging a league-leading 101.7 touches per game on the season. And with Murray off the floor this season, Jokic is sporting a gaudy 34.5% usage rate to go along with a 29% rebounding rate and 29% assist rate. At $10,600 on DK, he remains too cheap. I also think Will Barton will see more ball-handling responsibilities and does see a two percent bump in usage with Murray off the court this season, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute.
For the Heat, both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo remain very strong plays on seemingly every slate. I especially like Bam against a Denver team that is allowing the highest field goal percentage in the league at the rim (68.4%). And with Victor Oladipo out for Miami, perhaps you could take a shot on Goran Dragic at $4,700 on DK, though he definitely still presents some risk.
